The Monsoon Axis close to foothills of Himalayas will continue to bring heavy to very heavy rainfall over NE States, WB and Sikkim. The rainfall for the past 5 days has bought the NE states rainfall pattern from deficit to normal category. Mawsynram in Meghalaya has recorded nearly 1800 mm of rainfall in the past 4 days. The Western Disturbance (WD) induced Upper Air Circulation (UAC) will bring heavy rainfall to North India.
Next few days will also see Kerala and Coastal Karnataka catching up on heavy rains. An UAC forming over North Bay likely to influence heavy rainfall over WB, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. This UAC is likely to descend as Low Pressure Area (LPA) in coming days.
Chennai – Max Temperature to be around 36C. Due to an UAC forming over North Bay, heavy thunderstorms are expected by Friday Night.
Coimbatore – Day temperature will be around 33-34C. Light rains possible on Friday.
Madurai – Temperature likely to be around 36C. Rain or thundershowers possible in the evening or night.
KeaWeather Archives 
I think its ehsan who said that Anna Nagar guys say its pouring even when it drizzles. We want him to take his Volswagen Car and come to Anna Nagar West.
My badminton playground is fully flooded. I am sure Anna Nagar would have got minimum 30 mm
yes sir. mogappair too
didn’t it start after midnight and not at 10 pm?
u expected rains at 10 am in SWM and dont tell anyone u run a weather blog.
Refresh and check. It’s 10 pm
let it be 10.00 pm so what
Those who slept and missed the radar. MAX Z
Close Range.
what a day ! 4.56 AM & heavy drizzles still on..very eager to check R.G today morning
Chennai Rain update – More Rains expected on Friday Night. The reason for rains is due to the Upper Airculation in North Bay and confluence of winds happening due to the Upper Air trough.
Images in order precipitation chart, abundant moisture (500 hp) seen along with (upper air Circulation) UAC, and the trough extending to Chennai (500 hpa)
Suprabhatam
After heavy overnight rain it is still raining moderately.
Only 17 mm in Nunga!
even lesser at IMD
tonight suppose to be better. Maybe GT can record 100+
Can Meena record 100?
Moderate rains still in west mambalam
Wish Meena too gets the same along with T.Nagar!
Why mingling meena with t.nagar
coz i am meena fan!
Meena and nunga tie
Thats 2.30 am for meena.
But t.nagar is central chn
yeh….but most of the time when meena gets good rain south T.nagar areas along with Saidapet gets good rainfall!
Rainfall in and around Chennai
Tharamani – 30 mm
Meenambakkam – 14 mm (till 2.30 pm)
Nungambakkam – 14 mm
GT 45
Anna nagar – very high
Wait for kk.nagar…it will be incredibly very high
Shiva will tell. I am sure it will be min 30 mm.
32.4mm till 7am .
Ehsan rainfall has ranged above 30 mm in most of the places in city.
Thambi over build-up venadam. We will enjoy as it comes. Rain Sadist Ehsan will tease u.
Lol
Good morning guys .belive it or not its still raining and my area could record more than 25 mm;).more to come
More to come? When?
Today and tommorw night;)
Noo atleast 35 mm i think
September 1st week looks deadly. Axis dipping very low.
Yes nothing more than few drizzles and overcast skies for us
u have to banned for this comment. drizzles.
u forgot a thing.. sep will get rain naturally due to dip of monsoon axis towards south.. drizzles will be there, but b4 drizzles.. it would have been rained in cms..
Adara Sakka.
what steering
because of sadist Ehsan.
What a title
there is continues moisture pumping happening from sea. thats why storms are looking strong even at 5.00 am
Can somebody tell me why chennai gets more rain when uac forms near north bay and less or no rain when it forms near sw bay this year?any resson
Same 27mm but its drizzling now;)
Moderate rains continue
Reading in my rg 26mm so far
Yea its still raining
Here 135mm
good wet morning ☔.. good start to these 3 day show.. still moderate rain..
Happy to see rainy morning after a looooong time! 🙂
Steady moderate rain since early morning and love continues
What is love continous?
Love for rain continues
Ohh .;)
Yeah
View from my terrace
More thick dark clouds seen in the west!
Cherrapunji Records 312mm!
17 mm in kodambakkam from this spell so far..
do u have a RG
heavy rain lashed kk nagar..flooded rains…rg filled!!
You should move to Nunga.
Looks quite heavy ..overnight. . Trees are soaked .. should be 3 to 4 cm
expecting around 5cm by looking rg and floods….sill heavy drizzling continues!!
anyone having heavy rain of radar which lashed overnight?
PJ had posted, scroll down.
kk
Deepak, I had posted two images yesterday night at 1.40am.
OMG…powerful MISO taking shape at N/NE BOB, which can turn as WML/Depression at NW and adjoining WC-BOB by early next week. Some mind boggling rains are on the cards for East, East-central and Central and peninsular india.
will the system head west instead of North or NW..this way TS and NAP willl get benefited
Yes
Awesome morning
Heavy Downpour at Mid Night RG figures should be 30 – 40mm
it is a pity that chennai with 140 CMS annually…is struggling with water crisis…this clearly shows our govt has not taken any steps in enhancing lakes adding storage…only good that happened 2003 to an extent we had this RWH…else chennai would have gone …
I feel so sad past 12 days without any single drops in chidambaram
Today any possible?
Early morning downpour here!! Now reduced a bit
Hello Sir, how are you? Which place
Murudeshwar, north coastal kar
Convey my regards to beach, sand, trees, Mr. Shiva with moustache and rocks in the west end of murdeshwar.. My favorite best friend and companion it was..
famous shiva temple .
Deepak for you.around 6 bloggers were up at 1.40am posting comments.
Thala,agumbe la evlo?
Till now 32.4 mm
Kks sir..thanks
Light rains continue here
Night radar
Nice radar pic, rains almost everywhere in Chennai zone, missed pondy/cdl narrowly
Heavy rains overnight in Madipakkam, should be around 30mm here, still drizzling and a happy day for Augusters.
51mm here till now….
Storms Pattern as per 500hpa. Karaikal to Vedaranyam will have Rains in the Morning
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/08/21/0300Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=relative_humidity/orthographic=-280.79,7.91,2315
Any heating newsws today for evening rains?
Today Evening Sure Shot of Heavy Rains in Chennai
It’s not going to rain in the day.
Light Rains possibility for Karaikal to Vedaranyam from the remnants of TS over NE of Karaikal.
Good morning..
” Everybody wants hapiness nobody wants pain but you can’t have a rainbow without a little rain”.
Most parts of Chennai city had good downpour of rain last night.
Heavy rain would lash over most parts of Chennai city today as well.Expecting very heavy downpour tomorrow. North Chennai may have more rain than other parts.
Many parts of north interior districts including Vellore dt. had heavy rain last night.Further heavy rain is expected for that region today .
Some parts of Western interior districts like Erode ,Salem and Namakkal might have medium rain today.
Suprisingly 34 mm From Early Morning TS
How much at Chennai AP
30 mm here. That takes the monthly tally to 171 mm.
My area got the highest rainfall!!
did u check up with Ameen and Vela
nope!!
Meenambakkam – 21 mm till 5.30 am
Surya – Ellapauram (Periyapalayam) has got 18.5 mm. You should be happy that u beat Ehsan.
45 mm in Poonamalle Agro, 42 mm in Ambattur and 34 mm in Poondi Agro.
Hats off to you PJ. You are the one who predicted rain from the morning yesterday. Ehsan would be disappointed because of rains yesterday night.
stil kea asked the time predicted by PJ to add masala to his denial or acceptance.
Some one has to post objection to make challenges more interesting. That is what Kea Did :p.
We want more and more negative comments from Kea to acheive good rainfall in Chennai.Lol…
Actually who won the today’s rain prediction contest?
OMG… group of TSs that not towered to the maximum height yielded 30-40 mm rainfall. if these TSs tower to the maximum height, then how much we will get???
I think you predicted today’s rain along with PJ
Yes. It looks most intense rains still awaiting.
Rao congrats your success rate continuos.
Yes, it looks non-stop success prediction continuing. I just narrowly avoided failure during August 13-16 by removing rain alert once after LPA-convection blown-off suddenly over MP.
Still the same as they move fast.
But these TSs are in late August, so in general they move little bit slow.
so august is limping back one should say.
Tail enders are doing their job!
It should be late middle order. Still days to go for tail enders magic 🙂
After the 23rd, there isn’t going to be much playing!
hopefully they have record partnership in august and win the game for august team. ALso i want a close contest with september team not 10 over 8 wickets game.
I request kea to feature my 1week old prediction regarding this wet-spell (rains occurring after 14 days since 4/5th August). Original comment can be pulled out from the technical page.
U can post it. I will feature
Rao any take on upcoming Lpa in north bay. Will it cross North odisha coast or south odisha coast? South odisha means Ap and TS have heavy rain chances right
It will cross South-Orissa Coast. So heavy rains will be there for AP &TS states.
Time is 8.20, temperature is 25 c
Saidapet records 21 mm..this takes monthly average to 163 mm
163, r u serious? That’s 2.5 times more than nunga
Yes…
Rain intensity never crossed 100mm/hr last night.. hoping for good rain today
Yet some places got 50+
Yes I saw that :p
Nunga missed it, meena missed it. Places around nunga got it
Not really.. rainfall wouldnt have exceeded 30mm at most places
August team rocking. Tonight we will have an unassailable target
Going to school now. hoping for big storm towards evening
Good rainy morning to all,
As i was saying yesterday that we will get light or passing showers, but nature had told different story, i need to bow towards it. Hats off to rain.
That was fantastic night around 2.30 AM, it was lightning flashes and rain started to pour, then power cut for 10 minutes and then restored.
After going home last evening, i could not bare the heat and humidity, was sweated while reaching home, could not bare the heat, the table has been turned overnight, now it is cooler and no sweat.
The same way we are going to get rain tonight too, it will be an overnight or early morning rains. This will continue until the morning of tomorrow. Big numbers expected tomorrow early morning.
Rain today is just a trailer, main picture to come.
Kadapa deficit reduced from minus 45 to minus 15
wonderful rains after several years
Every station in kadapa recorded above 80 mm rain
Muddanur – 137 mm
Pottipadu – 128 mm
Kodur – 112 mm
utukur – 111 mm
kondapuram – 105 mm
Herojipuram – 100 mm
I have travelled through the places like Muddanur, Kodur and Kondapuram, i have seen these places as very dry one. Nice to see the big numbers.
Yes Nature always shows balancing act kiran. What about kurnool rainfall stats?
Yes kurnool got good rains…a rainfall pattern like this for 4 to 5 days continuosly can wipe of drought
Till 8.30am Ambattur records 48mm as per My RG
Asusual we are rocking Mouli..
Yes Next two days we can see Huge amount exceeding 50mm
I have noticed one thing mouli.If the storms move W to E or SW to ne ambattur getting very good rainfall when compared to other places in chennai.
Yes when storms come from west Ambattur receives Good Rains. Even in NEM sometimes Ambattur Tops in Rainfall
When there is a Neutral IOD + ELNINO combo, how can it stop rainfall to Chennai that too during SWM.
Today and Tomorrow Very Good Possibility of Heavy to Very Heavy Rains over North Tamilnadu.
Entire north tamilnadu or Chennai, kanch, thiruvallur , velore tvm
Last night kurnool got another spell of rain..
Rainfall till 8 am
Kurnool DLTC – 63 mm
kurnool imd – 41 mm
South AP at its best
85 percent of the places received above 2.5 mm yesterday
Kiran,
Today too South AP likely to get widespread rainfall. Trough is dipping nicely in favour of SAP and NTN.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=ind&pkg=z700_vort&runtime=2015082018&fh=24&xpos=0&ypos=278.6666666666667
Flash…deluge alert for Core Chennai between August 19th & 22nd: A very high intensity electric VS-TS (hybrid) may occur at many places of core Chennai between August 19th & 22nd (most probably around August 21st/22nd evening/night). Most places will cross 50 mm with 1 or 2 places crossing 100 mm mark. This electric TS can be more intense than August 4th TS that occurred at core chennai. Height of confidence based on: MJO’s close proximity at phase 2 (both by GFS & ECMWF) with perfect orientation of left side west Pacific typhoon (both by ECMWF & GFS) to pull the SWM winds hardly into southern tip of peninsular India.
Rao… you told that Cauvery water catchment area would get more raind 2nd half of August… Is still valid ? any changes ? no much inflow to mettur dam so far…
Where has to rain for Kaveri to get floods??
It should rain in Madikkere or Mysore KRS!
Oh…then recent rains happening after long gap. So dry soil sucking the rain water. Then next spells onwards there will be some flood water into Kaveri. So better chances for Kaveri region to receive floods in September only.
Yeh…September month is important South Interior Karnataka and Interior TN gets massive during September!
Catchment areas of Cauvery are Vayanad in Kerala, & Tala Cauvery, Madikkere in KTN… I dont know other areas… PJ can help us…
Present rains after so long gap making only soil to get saturated. So better chances for floods during September only.
Trichy,Mettur & Grand Anaicut are also in banks of cauvery!
Harangi, Kabini and KRS are the main source..Only if they get filled major water is sent to TN…
Widespread Rains
West of Tiruvallur and places around Walaja, R.k.pet, Sholingur received 80 – 100mm. Massive Rains
Huge deficits in Maharashtra, only eastern districts have got good rainfall.
Nagpur in Excess category. Over West Mumbai Suburban alone in Normal then Dhule in Northern part.
So finnaly rains arrived to Chennai in style..:)
Did we reach the average rainfall for Chennai in SWM?? I guess it was somewhere like 160 cm right?
160 cms or mm…for aug right u asking…
average rain in swm for chennai 35 to 40 cms from june to sep
Before reporting to work. Today early morning spell was 41mm.kkngr. aprox.
As per IMD nunga 14.6 MM.
Official Readings
Nunga – 14.6 mm
Meena – 23 mm
Congrats
Early morning beach view of Murudeshwar http://s22.postimg.org/qf0ss5ugh/P_20150821_073533_MT.jpg
check ur FB
Yeah sure
murdeshwar to Gersoppa is near and from there u can go to Jog Falls. While returning u can come down to Hulikal, then Kottigehera and then return home. All are on the way.
Also u can visit Apsarakonda which is some 20 kms from Murudeshwar..It has got a Falls and beach on the opposite sides..
This will boast up Ehsan. Underwater Tennis Court in Dubai. This might be an add up to Grand Slam.
http://www.pursuitist.in/an-underwater-tennis-court-in-dubai-to-host-grand-slam-tournaments/?utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=pursuitist_traffic&utm_term=deccanchronicle
SI KTK likely to get massive rainfall tonight or tomorrow early morning. Bangalore will register good numbers.
Cherrapunji – 254.2 mm today
Another 250 mm needed to reach 10000 mark
Guys,
Tomorrow the temp will be around 30C. Tomorrow rainfall will be in the afternoon or evening itself. Nice climate to continue until Sunday. Even continuous drizzles in the day possible.
even continuous drizzles in the day possible.
Is vela here, Today Temp is not even crossing 30 C. IMD is going to call today rains as Veppa Salanam only.
If it rains today what will u call it ? Or there is No heat, will it rain today. I am not a Veppa Salanam expert. So please tell.
I want Jeetu also to answer this question.
Add Susa too…vs factor not applicable at this point of the year..
Yesterday whether any rains for chennai
have you gone through the comments below or did you see kea metsite?
Nice rains in chennai
Moderate
even though heat is not here, sun is there. so VS only.
Very good observation… Spot on
If Thunder storms form over west then IMD will tell it is as vepasalanam. Unless there is a low pressure in the sea they use this term for rest of the time. I think it is general word like we use ‘Thunder storm’
July was the hottest month ever in the world.. (if this report can be believed)
http://www.rediff.com/news/report/pix-july-was-the-hottest-month-ever-around-the-world/20150820.htm
Bloggers,
I have said this before, saying to you once again today.
While logging in, please go through comments posted already. This is a very good practice. The benefits are given below.
1. This will avoid repeated questions.
2. Will enable you to learn new things, if bloggers have posted new info.
3. It is the respect given to the blog, since you are not avoiding important or valuable comments.
4. This practice makes you to know the latest trending also.
5. Avoid’s duplication.
Partha ji…..now a days your predictions are keen and obvious..
I am expecting detailed technical aspects on the rains which AP karnataka and NTN getting and about the recent ER wave impact on us and also the present impact of the typhoons in western pacific on our SWM
you want a PPT?
I am weak on that, i can predict to some extent, but to teach others on what i learnt is very tough. Teaching is another talent, in which i am very weak.
Physically if you are present here and with me when i am commenting, it will be easy for me to teach you by referring some pages.
Not a problem partha ji…I will participate in technical discussions here and try to learn more….
suggestion, during rains and during normal conditions, in both times you can check weather charts like wind pattern, temp at all levels, MSLP like that, if you keep doing for some more time, you will gain experience, also you can search for articles on troughs, fronts like that, you will come to know in detail in next 1 year for sure, at least you will know the parameters.
just now completely read the posts. i regularly doing this. Actually i started this to find any fights happened
Only heavy drizzles here..roads were wet…
No way it was decent 20mm rains all the way moderate
For me it is 3.3cms in Velachery main road.
Ya..saw nearby rodas..seems to be moderate rains..better drainage facilities in my road 😀
Valasaravakkam records 41.8mm. No power here since 3am! 😦
IRI latest long range outlook showing good NEM.
http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/
Cuddapah flooded……farmers very happy…
Historic rains…deficit turned into normal in one day..
Drought hit Kurnool town flooded…..decifit came down by 10 percent at a time…..
A snap of kurnool rain during yesterday’s rain
Captain’s knock by jupi after tat slap yesterday 🙂
Nellore 53, kurnool 39 mm
Kurnool 41
Arakonam, kaveripakkam, tiruvalangadu 5cm…poonamalle, tiruvallur, ponneri 4cm
Kiran,
The reason:
Check the 700 HPA wind pattern and 500 HPA wind pattern, this is the cause for yesterday’s rain over SAP and NTN.
The rain last night was due to unstable conditions at 500 HPA levels. see the link given below, there is a CC over SCTN AP and ACC over Central TN. This has created a temporary ridge between Central AP and Central TN, this ridge was running from west to east over interiors and NW to SE over coastal areas. This ridge is nothing but the meeting point of ACC influence dry air and that CC influenced moist air. This will create unstable conditions over SI-KTK, SAP and NTN. This has bought TS last night.
Also – When the wind comes down in latitude that is called trough dipping, when this happens then it means the mid level temp difference has bought this down, this triggers more shear at mid level and this in turn paving the way to get cloud formation. This trough dip is happening from today at 700 HPA levels, this is why i said that today rainfall will heavier that yesterday, since today there will be a support at lower levels also, yesterday we had only mid level support.
Today early morning conditions of 500 HPA
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/08/20/2100Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=relative_humidity/orthographic=-277.94,12.75,1638
Today early morning conditions of 700 HPA
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/08/20/2100Z/wind/isobaric/700hPa/overlay=relative_humidity/orthographic=-277.94,12.75,1882
Very clear explanation partha…..thank u