Next monsoon system getting ready at bay

The Monsoon Axis close to foothills of Himalayas will continue to bring heavy to very heavy rainfall over NE States, WB and Sikkim. The rainfall for the past 5 days has bought the NE states rainfall pattern from deficit to normal category. Mawsynram in Meghalaya has recorded nearly 1800 mm of rainfall in the past 4 days. The Western Disturbance (WD) induced Upper Air Circulation (UAC) will bring heavy rainfall to North India.

Next few days will also see Kerala and Coastal Karnataka catching up on heavy rains. An UAC forming over North Bay likely to influence heavy rainfall over WB, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. This UAC is likely to descend as Low Pressure Area (LPA) in coming days.
02. INSAT

Chennai – Max Temperature to be around 36C. Due to an UAC forming over North Bay, heavy thunderstorms are expected by Friday Night.

Coimbatore – Day temperature will be around 33-34C. Light rains possible on Friday.

Madurai – Temperature likely to be around 36C. Rain or thundershowers possible in the evening or night.

1,321 thoughts on “Next monsoon system getting ready at bay

  1. I think its ehsan who said that Anna Nagar guys say its pouring even when it drizzles. We want him to take his Volswagen Car and come to Anna Nagar West.

    My badminton playground is fully flooded. I am sure Anna Nagar would have got minimum 30 mm

  2. Chennai Rain update – More Rains expected on Friday Night. The reason for rains is due to the Upper Airculation in North Bay and confluence of winds happening due to the Upper Air trough.

    Images in order precipitation chart, abundant moisture (500 hp) seen along with (upper air Circulation) UAC, and the trough extending to Chennai (500 hpa)

  3. Rainfall in and around Chennai

    Tharamani – 30 mm
    Meenambakkam – 14 mm (till 2.30 pm)
    Nungambakkam – 14 mm

  4. Good morning guys .belive it or not its still raining and my area could record more than 25 mm;).more to come

  5. there is continues moisture pumping happening from sea. thats why storms are looking strong even at 5.00 am

  6. Can somebody tell me why chennai gets more rain when uac forms near north bay and less or no rain when it forms near sw bay this year?any resson

  7. OMG…powerful MISO taking shape at N/NE BOB, which can turn as WML/Depression at NW and adjoining WC-BOB by early next week. Some mind boggling rains are on the cards for East, East-central and Central and peninsular india.

  8. it is a pity that chennai with 140 CMS annually…is struggling with water crisis…this clearly shows our govt has not taken any steps in enhancing lakes adding storage…only good that happened 2003 to an extent we had this RWH…else chennai would have gone …

  9. Heavy rains overnight in Madipakkam, should be around 30mm here, still drizzling and a happy day for Augusters.

  10. Good morning..

    ” Everybody wants hapiness nobody wants pain but you canโ€™t have a rainbow without a little rain”.

    Most parts of Chennai city had good downpour of rain last night.

    Heavy rain would lash over most parts of Chennai city today as well.Expecting very heavy downpour tomorrow. North Chennai may have more rain than other parts.

    Many parts of north interior districts including Vellore dt. had heavy rain last night.Further heavy rain is expected for that region today .

    Some parts of Western interior districts like Erode ,Salem and Namakkal might have medium rain today.

    • Hats off to you PJ. You are the one who predicted rain from the morning yesterday. Ehsan would be disappointed because of rains yesterday night.

  11. OMG… group of TSs that not towered to the maximum height yielded 30-40 mm rainfall. if these TSs tower to the maximum height, then how much we will get???

  12. I request kea to feature my 1week old prediction regarding this wet-spell (rains occurring after 14 days since 4/5th August). Original comment can be pulled out from the technical page.

  13. Rao any take on upcoming Lpa in north bay. Will it cross North odisha coast or south odisha coast? South odisha means Ap and TS have heavy rain chances right

  14. Good rainy morning to all,

    As i was saying yesterday that we will get light or passing showers, but nature had told different story, i need to bow towards it. Hats off to rain.

    That was fantastic night around 2.30 AM, it was lightning flashes and rain started to pour, then power cut for 10 minutes and then restored.

    After going home last evening, i could not bare the heat and humidity, was sweated while reaching home, could not bare the heat, the table has been turned overnight, now it is cooler and no sweat.

    The same way we are going to get rain tonight too, it will be an overnight or early morning rains. This will continue until the morning of tomorrow. Big numbers expected tomorrow early morning.

    Rain today is just a trailer, main picture to come.

  15. Kadapa deficit reduced from minus 45 to minus 15

    wonderful rains after several years
    Every station in kadapa recorded above 80 mm rain

    Muddanur – 137 mm
    Pottipadu – 128 mm
    Kodur – 112 mm
    utukur – 111 mm
    kondapuram – 105 mm
    Herojipuram – 100 mm

  16. Last night kurnool got another spell of rain..
    Rainfall till 8 am

    Kurnool DLTC – 63 mm
    kurnool imd – 41 mm

  17. Flash…deluge alert for Core Chennai between August 19th & 22nd: A very high intensity electric VS-TS (hybrid) may occur at many places of core Chennai between August 19th & 22nd (most probably around August 21st/22nd evening/night). Most places will cross 50 mm with 1 or 2 places crossing 100 mm mark. This electric TS can be more intense than August 4th TS that occurred at core chennai. Height of confidence based on: MJO’s close proximity at phase 2 (both by GFS & ECMWF) with perfect orientation of left side west Pacific typhoon (both by ECMWF & GFS) to pull the SWM winds hardly into southern tip of peninsular India.

  18. Rao… you told that Cauvery water catchment area would get more raind 2nd half of August… Is still valid ? any changes ? no much inflow to mettur dam so far…

      • Oh…then recent rains happening after long gap. So dry soil sucking the rain water. Then next spells onwards there will be some flood water into Kaveri. So better chances for Kaveri region to receive floods in September only.

      • Yeh…September month is important South Interior Karnataka and Interior TN gets massive during September!

      • Catchment areas of Cauvery are Vayanad in Kerala, & Tala Cauvery, Madikkere in KTN… I dont know other areas… PJ can help us…

      • Present rains after so long gap making only soil to get saturated. So better chances for floods during September only.

      • Harangi, Kabini and KRS are the main source..Only if they get filled major water is sent to TN…

    • West of Tiruvallur and places around Walaja, R.k.pet, Sholingur received 80 – 100mm. Massive Rains

  19. Is vela here, Today Temp is not even crossing 30 C. IMD is going to call today rains as Veppa Salanam only.

    If it rains today what will u call it ? Or there is No heat, will it rain today. I am not a Veppa Salanam expert. So please tell.

  20. Bloggers,

    I have said this before, saying to you once again today.

    While logging in, please go through comments posted already. This is a very good practice. The benefits are given below.

    1. This will avoid repeated questions.
    2. Will enable you to learn new things, if bloggers have posted new info.
    3. It is the respect given to the blog, since you are not avoiding important or valuable comments.
    4. This practice makes you to know the latest trending also.
    5. Avoid’s duplication.

    • Partha ji…..now a days your predictions are keen and obvious..
      I am expecting detailed technical aspects on the rains which AP karnataka and NTN getting and about the recent ER wave impact on us and also the present impact of the typhoons in western pacific on our SWM

      • you want a PPT?

        I am weak on that, i can predict to some extent, but to teach others on what i learnt is very tough. Teaching is another talent, in which i am very weak.

        Physically if you are present here and with me when i am commenting, it will be easy for me to teach you by referring some pages.

      • Not a problem partha ji…I will participate in technical discussions here and try to learn more….

      • suggestion, during rains and during normal conditions, in both times you can check weather charts like wind pattern, temp at all levels, MSLP like that, if you keep doing for some more time, you will gain experience, also you can search for articles on troughs, fronts like that, you will come to know in detail in next 1 year for sure, at least you will know the parameters.

    • just now completely read the posts. i regularly doing this. Actually i started this to find any fights happened

  21. Drought hit Kurnool town flooded…..decifit came down by 10 percent at a time…..
    A snap of kurnool rain during yesterday’s rain

  22. Kiran,

    The reason:

    Check the 700 HPA wind pattern and 500 HPA wind pattern, this is the cause for yesterday’s rain over SAP and NTN.

    The rain last night was due to unstable conditions at 500 HPA levels. see the link given below, there is a CC over SCTN AP and ACC over Central TN. This has created a temporary ridge between Central AP and Central TN, this ridge was running from west to east over interiors and NW to SE over coastal areas. This ridge is nothing but the meeting point of ACC influence dry air and that CC influenced moist air. This will create unstable conditions over SI-KTK, SAP and NTN. This has bought TS last night.

    Also – When the wind comes down in latitude that is called trough dipping, when this happens then it means the mid level temp difference has bought this down, this triggers more shear at mid level and this in turn paving the way to get cloud formation. This trough dip is happening from today at 700 HPA levels, this is why i said that today rainfall will heavier that yesterday, since today there will be a support at lower levels also, yesterday we had only mid level support.

    Today early morning conditions of 500 HPA
    http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/08/20/2100Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=relative_humidity/orthographic=-277.94,12.75,1638

    Today early morning conditions of 700 HPA
    http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/08/20/2100Z/wind/isobaric/700hPa/overlay=relative_humidity/orthographic=-277.94,12.75,1882

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