Monsoon Cloud Zone shifts to east and adjoining central India

keaweather 2015, KEA Blog, SWM-2015

The Continental Monsoon Trough is seen south of its mean normal position with a Low Pressure Area hooked to its eastern end. The aforementioned Low Pressure area is currently located near north coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Odisha, which would result in heavy and widespread rainfall in parts of coastal Andhra, Odisha, Telangana and Chhattisgarh. The day time temperatures in the region would be a few degrees below normal owing to the convective cloud cover associated with Monsoon Trough. Meanwhile, the active west coast off-shore trough would result in widespread heavy rains along coastal Karnataka and Kerala. Rainfall activity would gradually increase over Tamil Nadu and Rayalaseema in the coming days.

02. INSAT

Chennai would experience a cloudy day with the maximum day time temperature settling close to 35-36 C. There is a possibility of rains during the late hours.

Coimbatore to remain cloudy and overcast with a benign maximum day time temperature of 30-31 C. Chances of passing shower/drizzles.

Madurai will see a partly cloudy day and maximum day time temperature could be a warm 37-38 C.

711 thoughts on “Monsoon Cloud Zone shifts to east and adjoining central India”

  1. Gud morning bloggers .from yesterday drizzles my area hardly recived 1 mm. Hope it gets more today as the lpa has moved north of us .;)

    Reply

  4. Sky is Clearing Off Slightly Warm Weather Expected Today in Chennai. Thunderstorm Possibility by Late Evening/Night over North Tamilnadu. Temperature is Expected to be Around 36’C in Chennai and South & Central Tamilnadu is Expected to be Hot with 37-39’C.

    Reply

  8. Good morning. .
    “If you want light to come into your life, you need to stand where it is shining.” – Guy Finley

    Part of south Chennai had trace to light rain last night.

    Many parts of Chennai will have heavy rain from coming Sunday to Tuesday.Light rain is possible over some parts of city till Saturday.

    Upper Air Circulation would bring heavy rain to many areas between South of Chennai to Kanyakumari, Southern Tamilnadu from 16th to 18th Aug.

    Some parts of Interior Tamilnadu districts may also have medium to heavy rain between 16th to 18th Aug.

    Reply

  11. NAO likely to turn neutral by September, currently it is positive.

    Normally negative NAO supports NEM to take to excess levels, however Neutral NAO might bring Normal rainfall in October. This NAO likely to become Negative by November. The pattern of NEM will be like Normal rainfall in October and November and good rainfall in December. NEM might end in Normal-Above Normal pattern in 2015.

    Reply

  15. will tis year 2015 turn out to be a record breaking year for pacific ??Ecmwf shows another dangerous super typhoon next week with pressure dipping close to 907MB & GFS completely differs with a different intensity & track

    Reply

  17. Upper Air Waves becomes more pronounced as Rossby blocking.

    The perfect matching of illustrated image and the current scenario.

    When the polar vortex weakens, the polar jet stream slows and meanders in a form that allows the extension of low pressure lobes much farther to the south. These can become stationary for days and block the normal circulation of the atmosphere. The negative AO/NAO is associated with a slowed polar vortex and polar jet stream. When the jet stream slows, it meanders in a waveform pattern (Rossby waves).

    The cold air extends upto Mid Latitudes and Warm Air raises up to sub tropics. This blocks the mid latitude free circulation at arctic circle, this bring changes in weather pattern in mid latitudes.

    Picture attached.

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  18. After long time in my home town nellai, as usual it is hot with SWM winds making life comfortable

    Reply

  19. Fourth Day of Heavy Rains in Kerala.

    Today Idukki – 71, Pambla 71 mm and Neeriyamangalam – 66mm

    Reply

  20. Positive IOD + ELNINO,

    We never had an history that during ELNINO years, Positive IOD has not emerged in September. Hope the current 0.5 value has to sustain or increase in September too and get continued till October.

    However the current forecast suggests that IOD likely to remain Neutral till September and become Positive in October and again Neutral in November.

    Reply

  23. Flash News,

    Latest update on ELNINO forecast.

    Strongest ELNINO to emerge in history. NINO values to touch 4C above normal by September end. No need to worry about IOD values from now on. ELNINO will take care of NEM. Strong NEM likely this time.

    NINO 1+2 going to reach 4C above normal SST.
    NINO 3 to touch 2C above normal.

    Reply

    • The above forecast is based on CFS and we all know that CFS is warm biased. Nino 3.4 will peak around 2.5C above normal, and not 4C.

      Reply

      • CFS is good in predicting waves but not in enso forecast. From past two years it was showing super el nino. Its a warm biased model and has done poorly in enso forecast.

      • All models in the world made that enso forecast in 2014 like cfs.

        The point was the downwelling started in early part of 2014 and then there was counter upwelling happened in east pacific in May 2014. This cannot be forecasted by any models in the world. If there was no upwelling then for sure ELNINO would have emerged by that time.

      • No. POAMA was the only model which correctly predicted about 2014 event. When all the models were showing strong el nino beginning from June last year, it was the only model which correctly predicted about warm neutral conditions during JJA period in 2014.

      • I’m talking about 2014 event. During May last year all the models were showing strong el nino during JJA period except PAOMA. It was the only model which correctly predicted about warm neutral during JJA period 2014.

      • Friends, Can you let me know how come strongest Elnino willhave good NEM ..i am just trying to understand the correlation

      • Strong el nino cools down Western Pacific. This results in strong easterlies during NEM which gives good rainfall to TN.

      • actually i have lot of doubts…pls clarify
        1. EL Nino year supposed to coold WP…lot of Typhoons this year.
        2.Elnino is supposed to shift the trade wind pattern right..atleast it should take the momentum of rainfall bearing winds to EP right…

  25. New poll has been created. Jupi has been behind me since yesterday to create this poll.
    You can take part in the poll by refreshing the page or from the widget in kea.metsite.com

    Reply

  29. Has any model based out of aug predicted atleast normal nem for tn?? I ve posted NAMM and jamstec.. Kindly post others too for analysis..

    Reply

  32. Big time deficit in rainfall expected in August and September across the country.
    The upper level wind anomaly suggests that the ACC over Northern part likely to remain weak. Also the mid level disturbance to weaken in next few days.

    Temp difference not to higher in the coming days in each level of the atmosphere, the temp difference has to be more to get monsoonal rains to strengthen.

    Reply

  36. Mumbai has had many rain days this August, but none/not many greater than 10 mm.
    Deficit as per today
    Colaba – 299.9
    Santa Cruz – 94.6

    Reply

    • It’s very surprising. But it will do better from August last week onwards due to “stalled SWM dynamics close to central India”

      Reply

  37. mumbai certainly needs another 50 centimeters of rainfall for their comfortable storage in lakes. looks like difficult now, as already half of august gone. still 2 more weeks very crucial for them. if it does not rain properly, by end of this year mumbai would be on the same track of chennai and in fact usage wise three times more than chennai. it is really unfortunate. but weather gods always show mercy on mumbai, and this year may not be an exception. let us see.

    ss

    Reply

  38. Rains in some parts of AP and Telangana

    Nizamabad – 130 mm
    Kothakota – 113 mm
    Bhaligattam – 109 mm
    Pendurti – 108 mm
    Visakhapatnam – 101 mm
    Narsipatnam – 100 mm
    Malkangiri – 94 mm

    Reply

  42. See the CFS long runs for September. Whole central, peninsular and west coast to be pounded with good spatial distribution of rainfall. NEM going to take onset on regular date only (around October 3rd week).

    Reply

    • actually rao ji is usually chatting v.much with buggi. So he must know, may be bug is his room mate

      Reply

  48. Visakhapatnam airport after hudhud cyclone…
    After hudhud Visakhapatnam received 5 times above 95 mm till today

    Reply

    • In Visakhapatnam the roof falls only when a cyclone crosses but in chennai everyday it falls on someon’s head… 48 times it has fallen poor airport…

      Reply

  51. Upcoming MISO activity around 20th of august maybe the last of its kind in tis SWM for entire india as per the models forecast at tis point of time

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  55. The cool SST near Chile/Peru coast creating lot of upwelling only to suppress the present Elnino to reach “super” status.

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  56. Rao,

    Just few hours back I said to guest11k that we cannot trust CFS for its Cyclone and Precipitation forecast, but we can believe them in Tropical Waves forecast.

    Now you are seeing the long run of CFS and saying that September rainfall will be above normal over entire country.

    I have seen one reliable forecast for next 16 days time, this August is not going to recover, it will add up the deficits.

    In September, as per my LRF, it should be deficit again.

    Couple of times in June end and July mid we have seen some excess rainfall in some regions, that was due to Negative WP SST Anomaly, i have share the picture once again.

    I tell you now, the deficit is for sure in August and September.
    SWM 2015 will end in drought for sure.

    SWM 2015 so far -9%, this will decrease in terms of percentage in Negative.

    Reply

    • It can be another factor, but to be very precise, during ELNINO years either Positive IOD supports SWM, if it is absent to some extent WP Negative SST Anomaly will surely support.

      As we are seeing the cyclogenesis forming over WP has become a villain nowadays to SWM, it has pulled down or weakened the precipitation.

      Reply

      • Partha, Relative cool SST at WP or Nino 4.0 is the typical Elnino style. So can you compare WP SST/Nino 4.0 SST vs SWM rainfall in 1957, 1965, 1972,1982, 1987, 1997 (all are strong Elnino years of the past century).

  58. Can Hyd expect early winter from october….Badly missing cold wave here…Hoping good monsoon dynamics atleast in next lanina year..Iam ready to pick out my coats

    Reply

  59. For SWM to do its normal business, MJO must make regular rotations around all phases with amplitude just around 1. If MJO exhibiting any abnormal/irregular/strucked patterns, then SWM will get effected adversely. To know this compare 2005 MJO pattern vs 2014/2015.

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    • Let us forget swm 2015….It did not make its presence well this time…Telangana may end with 50 percent deficit for sure..Just expecting one or 2 heavy spells for drinking water

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    • lol..utter blabber. what is countering what? first of all where was the iod to counter? when did they observe dipole like circulation?

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    • rofl.. after challenging imd only they realize that monsoon is a very complex thing and tough to predict when they interacts with elnino.. what story is tis.? now atleast they came out of dream. skymet ,welcome to the world of METEOROLOGY after all self claimed success stories

      Reply

  63. Partha, relative cool SST at WP or Nino 4.0 is the typical Elnino style. So can you compare WP SST/Nino 4.0 SST vs SWM rainfall in 1957, 1965, 1972,1982, 1987, 1997 (all are strong Elnino years of the past century).

    Reply

  65. Skymet not controlling themselves even after getting a hit in June and July.

    The deficit in July was nearly -15%, but what skymet forecasted was normal to excess, if I am right they were saying 102%, July ended with 85%. In the beginning of July itself i said that they are predicting July rainfall based on MJO in the mid of the month. That MJO as forecasted by Kea bloggers, it went weaker one.

    So far skymet has not learnt or observed the past 14 ELNINO years, this is why so many flaws in their forecast, at least by now they should press pause button and learn more and come back.

    Kea forecast – August and September will be deficit. By numbers August will be more and September will be less. 2015 SWM is a drought year as per KEA and IMD.

    Reply

    • he didn’t say anything about june & aug rains till now..he told about july end rainfalls ( along with pj) & now he says about sep rains..

      Reply

      • I spoke about SWM-2015. I still have to practise to give monthly out put like our friends.

    • Thats the difference between normal/excess and drought years no? Break periods observe very little rain.

      Reply

      • But SWM-2015 break periods are entirely different from other break periods. In other deficit years there will be prolonged dry periods and with scanty rainfalls after SWM resumes its duty. But 2015 year SWM are bouncing back with heavy rains (instead of scanty rains of other Elnino deficit years) after break periods.

  70. Swm Till 12th Aug all India % deviations frm normal

    E,NE at -12%
    Central -8%
    South biggest surprise -20%
    Nw +2%

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      • No..tat would mean big floods to wipeout entire deficit which may look good on stats n paper but will cause even more calamity..

  71. Huge deficit over West Coast, you are saying not bad??

    If you compare the SST anomaly of 2015 with 1997, then you will know why SWM has good rainfall in June and July.

    The value of SST anomaly if you see for June 1997, will match with July 2015, means the development of ELNINO was little late this year. This is why June and July deficit standing in single digit.

    In August it will climb faster than 1997, the NINO regions will hit 2C by end of August for sure. This will overtake 1997 NINO values of August.

    This is why i said that August and September will have huge deficits.

    Reply

  81. Rahul Gandhi’s ‘cheat sheet’ for Parliament speech caught on
    camera
    Pappu was given this sheet to read out y’day. True son of Momma.

    Rahul Gandhi carrying a note for speech is okay, but he needs to note down
    details of even 3 monkeys of Gandhiji? That’s Rahuler than Rahul.

    Reply

  82. @disqus_RhSGwm7xM9:disqus,

    I agree with you on praying for rains instead of challenging the deficit.

    However, i can do that outside blog, but here we are commenting based technical parameters, why should say it will rain normally during ELNINO year??

    The fact is the Phenomenon, we cannot go ahead, even if i pray nothing going to change sir.

    Reply

  87. Jupi expecting deficit SWM (that too chennai I think) for successful NEM according to NEM based on CONNEM. Is your theory completed or not? When we will receive first draft??

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  89. NEM for T.N especially for Chennai has become like Sachin, like people eagerly waited for his 100th century, after his 99th, every year we wait for good nem, but it has other thing in mind it seems, again some models predicting poor nem this year also, but what will happen in real? fingers crossed.

    Reply

    • No Worries… Our Super Experts are Confident on Good NEM – Jupi Anna And Partha sir…

      Reply

  90. Missing my college in Tirupati….As I shifted to hyd I can No more experience NEM except SWM…
    But south west monsoon this time is very pathetic and miserable

    Reply

      • SWM in hyd is really very pathetic…
        HYD usually gets 1000mm
        this time till now only 280 mm. I saw hardly 2 day rain till now.SWM going to end…Even 500 mm is very difficult

  91. W.pacific : One forecasting agency revised their earlier seasonal forecast of 7 super typhoons to 9 super typhoons in their update now ,making it 3rd highest ever..

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  92. there is a difference in which one emerging first, either ELNINO or Positive IOD, in 1972, 82 & 87 IOD emerged before SWM, may be the previous year also, hence it was not working out, in 1997 Positive IOD emerged strongly in July, hence SWM rainfall was excess across the country and below normal in Chennai.

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    • Better 1987 to be excluded as Elnino continued from its previous year 1986. So 2015 exactly moving in 1987 style. So we will consider 1972 & 1982 vs 1997 (all 3 had similar timing of Elnino initiation except +ve IOD establishment).

      Reply

      • So from winter onwards Elnino start receding (means some parameters will weaken away from Elnino strength)?? for example SOI returned to neutral range during NEM season in 1987.

  94. Also strong westerly phase of qbo during strong el ninos, favors +NAo, +Ao during OND period. So if this el nino strengthens above +2C anomaly then we can expect +NAO during NEM.

    Reply

  95. JAMSTEC expects el nino to peak in September around +2.5C and then start decreasing whereas BOM, ECMWF, JMA expects it to peak in November.

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  96. 1997 & 1965 saw the highest ever number of super typhoons. 11 super typhoons recorded both the year but the overall count was not impressive .. The year 1964 which is a lanina year seen with 39 storms tat includes 26 typhoons & 7 super typhoons.

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  97. there were around 20 bores in our area during last week of July. but no bore during aug, bcos all the biharis were sent back by the collector from avadi sekadu

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  98. Partha, +ve IOD emerged now and ER going to peak. So according to your analysis (just read SWM vs IOD and waves) will SWM will become active from coming week onwards??

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  100. Rami,

    I think we should not go by the values of IOD or ENSO, the arrival has different date. Check the following page.

    Example – we say in 1982 Positive IOD arrived in Jan itself, but this article confirms the arrival in September and Peaked in November.

    Reply

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