Monsoon takes a pitstop

With no active synoptic systems to generate large scale deep convection and precipitation, the sub-continent is currently in a so called weak/break-Monsoon like phase. But the situation might change over the next few days, as a pair of upper air cyclonic circulations near North Bay is seen merging together and the resultant Low Pressure system is likely to descend down at sea level, which is the case expected by numerical weather models too. This would bring in rains to central India in couple of days. Until then, rains are likely to be restricted to Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand along with coastal Karnataka and Kerala.
02. INSAT
Chennai to experience a partly cloudy sky and the warm conditions will see mercury touching 36-37 C .Chances of light/isolated rains towards the late hours.

Coimbatore will be cloudy with a chance of a passing shower. Maximum Temperatures not seen beyond 30-31c.

Madurai could experience a hot and sunny day with maximum temperatures close to 38-39 C.

1,137 thoughts on “Monsoon takes a pitstop

  1. A low pressure area had formed over north bay. The center of the circulation is approximately located at 18.11° N, 88.68° E, southeast of Puri, Odisha.

  2. Good morning. .
    “Being miserable is a habit; being happy is a habit; and the choice is yours.” -Tom Hopkins

    South of Chennai had medium rain last night.Some parts of city had trace.

    Light to Medium rain is forecast for parts of Chennai city.Areas between south of Chennai and Pondicherry may have medium rain today.Significant rain is expected in 36 hrs.

    North interior TN districts may have light to medium thundershower today.

  3. good morning everyone!
    today very good moisture is there!
    expecting good rains at Chennai towards evening/night!

  4. This one is especially for Raoji, Kiran
    New AP capital to pose major threat to ecosystem.
    Amaravati, the proposed capital of Andhra Pradesh, will face eight major environmental challenges that may affect the local atmosphere and lead to adverse climatic events in the region, a document prepared by United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has identified.
    Concrete bunds and sand dunes in the river and irrigation canals cause re-radiation, leading to increase in the average temperature.
    According to the report, there have been increased cases of extreme weather conditions.
    It pointed out that in the last two decades, temperatures in several pockets of the state have been on the rise.
    “Change of land-use pattern has led to changes in the amount of sunlight reflected from the ground. Since 1990, the severity of heat waves has increased in the region, mostly due to local atmospheric changes. The severe heat waves experienced in recent times has shifted from the interior parts of the state to areas close to the sea coast,” the report said, cautioning that such drastic changes are symptoms of the impact of climate change.
    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/hyderabad/New-AP-capital-to-pose-major-threat-to-ecosystem/articleshow/48417835.cms

    • Thx for the article. But still we can not come conclusion on this. Reason is simple these changes can be attributed for planetary changes as well. Very difficult to come conclusion about planetary changes with respect to ecological changes.

      • i hope, they would have taken in to considerations, all aspects including astro point, while deciding the state capital, hope it will prosper, like the early one,

      • To be frank I cannot imagine a capital other than my Hyderabad…
        But Hyd gone into Telangana….It takes Amaravathi a century to develop like current HYD city..

  5. Forecast of good rains in first fortnight of September, attributed to favourable MJO and multiple Monsoon systems, is expected to act as a bonus, for kharif crops sowing and the overall performance of Monsoon 2015. According to Skymet, September holds high stake and performance of Monsoon depends on the rains in the last month of the Monsoon.
    http://www.skymetweather.com/content/weather-news-and-analysis/overall-performance-of-monsoon-2015-depends-on-september-rains/

  6. IMD said the quantum of average monsoon rainfall across India between June 1-August 9 was 489 mm, or 9% less than the benchmark of 535 mm arrived at on the basis of a 50-year average shower.

  7. The dynamics involved in continental monsoon trough is quite interesting. The CAPE that degrades down during an active phase , gets back to normal values within 2 days after the cloud zone disappears overland. This is something like energy made to be available and will get diffused and discharged as and when the convective and thermodynamic processes gets in place….

  8. As per recent available model outlooks, temperature max in chennai is expected to be 3 degrees above normal from 13 to 15th August….with 13th being the highest

  9. One important parameter to see if an IOD event is taking shape begins in the sub surface water conditions. The varying thermocline or the 20 deg isotherm can somewhat be interpreted using this 26 C depth parameter. Looking at this , it seems the thermocline underneath the equatorial Indian ocean is almost even across the basin and seems non responsive to any temporary atmospheric forcing. Let us wait and see if any significant changes take place in this evolving period….

  10. Really moved by the story of a girl reaching chennai instead of coimbatore. Our govt should not confuse with so many institutions and places in the name of a single person. It would confuse any one. Meanwhile, I take this opportunity to whole heartedly congratulate those good hearted people in chennai who supported this girl thangaponnu . Hats off to them. These things prove we are in some good society.

  11. கோல்கேட்
    பாமாலிங் என்ற பன்னாட்டு நிறுவனம், இந்திய ஆயுர்வேத பாரம்பரிய பற்பசையை,
    தன்னுடையது என, உரிமை கொண்டாடியது; அதை, டி.கே.டி.எல்., ஆதாரங்களுடன்
    முறியடித்து உள்ளது.

    * கிரீன்
    டீ எனப்படும் பசுந்தேயிலை, பைன் மரப்பட்டை, மஞ்சள் ஆகியவற்றின் மருத்துவக்
    குணங்களை, தாங்கள் தான் கண்டுபிடித்தோம் என, ஐரோப்பிய நிறுவனம் ஒன்று
    தெரிவித்தது; அதை, டி.கே.டி.எல்., முறியடித்து உள்ளது.

  12. This story mentions the Samaritans names. Hats off to Mr. saravanan, Mr. paramasivam and Mr. Jaisankar for helping this poor girl. We need your tribe to increase.

    Eager and excited, Swathi V. and her mother arrived at the gates of Anna University for her TNAU counselling session only to be told that the venue was in Coimbatore. With only two hours left for the counselling session to start, Swathi almost gave up on her dreams of getting into university when a couple of walkers in the Anna University campus decided to make immediate arrangements to fly Swathi and her mother to Coimbatore.

    At 8:30 in the morning on one of their regular walks in Anna University campus, a group of 12 walkers, “Twalkers” as they like to be called came upon a clueless Swathi and her mother, who were from a small village near Tiruchy.

    After hearing about their misfortune, M. Saravanan, one of the walkers quickly called an official who informed them that the venue was in Coimbatore. After confirming this news, Saravanan along with two other friends, Paramasivam and Jaishankar quickly got in touch with officials in Coimbatore who were willing to wait for Swathi. The group then pooled in money and booked flight tickets for both mother and daughter at 10:30 am.

    All the walkers assured the mother, who was initially fearful of getting on a plane, that she would be fine. At 12 pm, Swathi managed to reach the venue and was given a seat for BSc in Biotechnology at TNAU. “I thought all was lost when we got to the wrong venue, but thankfully because of some kind people my daughter was able to enroll into the university,” said her mother.

    Swathi lost her father at a young age and her mother, a farmer, has funded her entire education by rearing cattle. Swathi, who scored 1,017 on 1200 despite suffering from stomach ulcers, had dreams of pursuing MBBS, but fell short of a good ranking because of her illness.

    After hearing news of being selected for agriculture counseling, Swathi pinned all her hopes on getting that seat. However, her online counselling tickets only mentioned the venue, Anna Arangam, but not the city, when Swathi asked her friends mother where was, she mistakenly told them it was in Anna University.

    M. Saravanan said, “It still seems like a dream at one point the mother was crying and the next minute not only did they manage to get to Coimbatore but she also got a seat and that’s all that matters to us.”

    While the walkers have told the mother that she need not pay them back, the mother insists that she will save up money soon and repay them.
    States:

  13. that’s what I trust POAMA for long range forecast. It was the only model which correctly predicted about sudden jump in IOD value in August.

  14. Yesterday Rainfall in Surrounding places in Chennai district ending 8.30 am on 10.08.2015

    in mm

    Vembakkam (near Kanchipuram) – 37
    Thirukalukundram (near Mahabs) – 19
    Wallajah – 14
    Mahabalipuram – 13
    Kaveripakkam – 13
    Kalavai – 11
    Uthiramerur – 10
    Cheyyar – 5
    Timiri – 5
    Kanuyambadi – 5
    Thiruporur (near Kelambakkam) – 5
    West Arani – 5

    I was lucky to see rains in outskirts of vellore. Whereever i go it rains.

  15. I think that uac=useless air cirrcullation will become as uac=useful air circullation to chennai from today and tommorow.:)

  16. Partha is reminding by e-mail that as per his forecast on August 5th, today or tomorrow we will get TS.
    He is still confident of it happening.

  17. Air-sea interaction process : deep convection anomaly of early days of august may have responded to july last week sst hot spots with a lag of 6 to 7 days. but still it is not a strong direct relationship

  18. Today….Hyderabad’s humidity is over 50 to 60 percent with blue cumulous clouds developing all over….expecting rains to start by evening

  19. Cyclonic vorticity @ 850 mb and 700 mb have higher values east of Chennai , which is inducing boundary layer convergence and conditions aiding deep convection. With upper level ventilation being high and spread along a large longitudinal zonal belt, and the easterly shear being in place, cloudy conditions could persist in chennai at least for some 3 hours. Conditions beyond would determine the later hours….

  20. India opener Murali Vijay will miss the first test against Sri Lanka with a hamstring injury, team director Ravi Shastri said on Monday.

  21. IOd has jumped to 0.51 from -0.02 within one week. POAMA in their july forecast expected this sudden jump in IOD value in August and as per their latest forecast, it will peak to 0.8 by August end.

  22. Temperature seems to be marching up like yesterday. But there is no announcement from the rains though. We are into the second summer spell.

  23. @jupijove:disqus,

    That is not an anticyclone and it is not a representative of a withdrawal kind of situation. U still have the Jacobabad heat ‘LOW’ west of Jaisalmer,(marked in red inward flows), and this is even evident at 850 hPa levels which would have a clear cyclonic vorticity. And more over the Monsoon Trough at this time is still much dominant across the northern belt. The winds resembling semi clockwise flows in east Rajasthan is probably due to flow adjustments between those surrounding systems. The typical anticyclone in NW India related to withdrawal scene should have conditions like , dry continental air penetration into NW India, full clockwise clear circulation with increased geopotential heights indicating high pressure subsidence, most of NW India with negative vorticity , calm winds. In my opinion i don’t feel it as an anticyclone and withdrawal of Monsoon time period as well..

  24. Roaring cumulonimbus clouds all around….became dark…Raining all around…they are yet to enter core city

  25. Hot & humid day..& hot winds too blowing,,3rd spell of summer waves ..
    This heat is good in august month..it will trigger a high electric thunder storms..

  26. Jaipur- 25.1’c, Delhi- 34’c, Chennai- 37.2’c, Mumbai 28.6’c (NDTV). Why do they still say Rajasthan is a ‘desert’ when it has a short summer (of late) and great rainfall almost 10 months in a year (lately)? Time for the think-tanks to rethink.

  27. We need pop north of vellore….
    Good moisture
    Early pop ups
    Sea breeze has set in!!

    Rains to return soon!!

  28. BCCI is considering the options to call tender for two new franchise or inviting foreign teams to participate in the tournament.

  29. Scattered rains in AP and TS
    Rainfall till 8 : 30 am today
    Chodavaram (vizag) – 108 mm
    Jagityal (karimnagar) – 95 mm

  30. ATLANTIC OCEAN _For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

  31. The possibility of Chennai facing a third summer will definitely jolt the Sep team. It is going to be a Herculean task for them to win the Games from now. However, Aug team should not be complacent. If SWM remains strong till the end of Sep without major changes in wind patterns, then the heat could become a blessing in disguise for the Sep team. Aug’s target could be easily overhauled in few matches with the help of monsterous high voltage storms during late nights and early mornings.

  32. Exactly. CFS hinting about 2 systems in September. One near kerala coast and another one near NAP and the good thing about September is that both north and south quadrant of the system gets good rainfall.

  33. CFS hinting about 2 systems in September. One near kerala coast and another one near NAP and the good thing about September is that both north and south quadrant of the system gets good rainfall.

  34. Dear Keaities, Yesterday I was in Ranipet, It was raining till I left
    at 4:30, it was a beautiful rainy day… it kept raining with breaks for
    that three hours.. rain was there till Kaveripakkam…

  35. I doubt even 3rd week will be boundaries RS Rao ji… Movement of ITCZ in september is the only lifeline..

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