Monsoon poised to take a break

keaweather 2015, KEA Blog, SWM-2015

The Indian Monsoon rains looks like heading for a break over the next few days. The rainfall activity will decline in the core Monsoon regions and would shift gradually towards the Himalayan foothills. Currently, several upper air cyclonic circulations are evident well above the surface filling up the air aloft the Indian subcontinent and waters surrounding as well. These systems could bring in cloudy weather with scattered moderate rains. Decent magnitude monsoon rains are to be confined to the western Himalayan states of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and parts of Jammu and Kashmir. Meanwhile, scattered rains possible across north and adjoining coastal TN.
02. INSAT
Chennai to remain cloudy with maximum temperature settling close to 36-37 C. There is a slight chance of rains towards the later part of day.

Coimbatore to remain cloudy with maximum temperature settling close to 30-31 C.

Madurai to remain hot and sunny with a day time maximum temperature peaking close to 37-38 C.

802 thoughts on “Monsoon poised to take a break”

  4. Kalai Vanakkam..utrar uravinar sandror nanbargal ellorukum… Why does the blog fire up only if there’s rain (>.0000001 mm lol)..celebrate every weather event haha…

    Bangalore is full of stagnant water..not able to go for morning walk..half the city is badly coughing owing to sudden climatic change..

    Meanwhile..saw on Live Mint, NEM will be ~105-125% above normal. Not sure what that means in actual terms.

    Reply

      • Weather is not in our hands..we need solutions to problems and not problems as a solution. Efficient management of water resources/ efficient usage of existing desalination plants/ improving storm water drains will be enough to tackle rains (and lack of rains)..

  5. It is not unusual..we regularly used to go to the beach to see typhoons, initially we thought we were the only crazy guys, but there are so many in Taiwan who watch typhoons. Once it rained ~900 mm over 2 days in Hsinchu and Yangmingshan..we as usual went to the beach via metro train..umbrella was shredded like kaima..still we loved it..

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  6. Today’s Forecast

    Like yesterday, today South of Chennai will have Rain from Tambaram to pondy

    Chennai and its coastal will have light TS at isolated places…

    Reply

      • Yes..wistfully thinking..will it pour at all odd hours in Chennai as in olden days..or not..or simply be satisfied with these one-off cloudbursts which don’t do much to alleviate water woes..simply a morale booster..

  9. by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), after staying active for one or two days over central India, monsoon to weaken over the entire country for next 15 to 20 days.

    The Pune-based research institute has been issuing the extended range forecast for next 20 to 25 days from last few years on experimental basis. The current forecast based on the initial conditions of August 4 says, “A fresh spell of good rainfall will propagate from Indian ocean to Southern Peninsula around August 20 and central India around August 25.

    A break in rains will be useful for crops in north and central India, which have received excess rainfall. But for the southern peninsula, weakening of monsoon for 15 to 20 days does not augur well as large parts in this region have already received deficient rains. States like Maharashtra is going to spend Rs 27 crore on cloud seeding with the hopes of getting some rains in the parched lands of Marathwada, where rains are required for drinking water and growing fodder crops as also for the next rabi season.

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  11. Warm day with possibility of Thunderstorms over South of Chennai. Chennai will have isolated Rians towards Evening/Night with Max Temp Expected to be around 36’C.
    Madurai, Trichy, Palayamkottai could see a hot day with temp reaching 38 – 40’C

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  12. It would be awesome if Australia’s coach gave this speech to the cricket team “Broadly speaking, you were like a kid lost in the Wood; fish struggling without its Finn. This is a warning Bell to us. We have to find the Root cause to this problem and Cook up a solution”
    -FB

    Reply

  16. After seeing the real time track of WP-super typhoon Soudelor, I redrawn its track by considering the total influence of convergence and divergence bands. This new DILF drawn at the center point of between total convergence and divergence bands (green lines), from there final corrected track was drawn which closely matching with real time track.

    earlier track (figure 1) : http://s16.postimg.org/hov9gacvp/wgmsir_4.gif

    corrected Sodelor’s track (figure 2) : http://s10.postimg.org/433jt6bg9/corrected_soudelor.gif

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  17. Yesterday night part of intense TS marched into 50 kms and went to Pulicat at last minute eventhough winds were NW. Today again Intense TS will march towards the last circle in radar….Lets see how it behaves.

    Reply

      • Vellam vandha mattumthan Dengue-va? It is a man-made disease caused by our glaring inadequacy to drain out stagnant fresh water.

        TN gov’t tried an innovative scheme by introducing wild mosquitoes which feast on Aedes Egyptii (Dengue) but the morons at King Institute rejected it saying it will “upset” the natural balance and we ALSO need Dengue mosquitoes to maintain balance. Weird thinking…

      • Lol International Site!
        How Will They Change Rate?
        Fixed Price? Namma Roadu Kadai ya Iruntha 25 rupa ku kudupan !!!

      • From where the bug came and where the bug lives is a mystery to all. The bug is all over the world. Asad atlast found the bug in India.

      • I don’t know whether it’s Winston Churchill or Solomon Papaiah who made the famous quote- “You can take the man out of the Cooum, but you can’t take Cooum out of the man”.. next stop USA fall 2015..and even if I travel to San Juan on business..will still be a Cooum..always

      • I can understand the hidden message directed at me. That i am a cooum. You say what ever you want i am not going to pissed off. You are a mystery to all.

        Jospeh nailed you on the copy paste thing u did. I am sure 99% what ever you are saying is full of lies. You are in IIM Shillong, Taiwan, Japan, US….name a place and i think u would be visited it. Its all full of lies. I am sure u are concerned Indian.

        Here there are so many kids. Dont fill them with your lies. I am sure u need some help. If it with respect to weather its fine. We can debate but. Based on the quote you are given.

        When u take all your lies and blah blah u have said here. It will stink more than Cooum.

        Friends dont fall for his lies. Just ignore when he posts other than weather.

      • It was NOT directed at you. NEVER. I don’t know what grudge you have, always pulling me down and saying nasty things.

        Anyway, peace be with you.

      • I am not pulling u. Let us meet, when there is next kea meet. It will solve all the mysteries behind u. Hopefully we can sort our differences. Ehsan enjoys guys like you in blog.

  24. Good morning..
    Typhoon Soudelor hit Taiwan as Category 5 hurricane. When the storm reached peak intensity, with winds near 290 km per hour, it became the strongest tropical cyclone on Earth so far this year.More severe casualties are expected also in China.

    Part of south Chennai including Adambakkam and Nanganallur , OMR kottivakkam received medium rain upto 1 cm last night.

    Forecast for Chennai:
    Medium rain is expected in part of city in evening/night.Max temp would be around 35 to 36°c.South of Chennai has more advantage for rain.

    Forecast for interior Tamil nadu: Part of North interior districts will have medium rain today.

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  26. Mesoscale Convective Systems in India…My Analysis……Yeaterday a medium level mesoscale system developed near rajasthan and gave good thunderstorms I am comparing this to the MCS that happened at the same place in 2015..

    Yesterday’s MCS happened with support of the monsoon trough

    A mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is a low-pressure center within an mesoscale convective system (MCS) that pulls winds into a circling pattern, With a core only 30 to 60 miles (97 km) wide and 1 to 3 miles (4.8 km) deep,
    But an MCV can take on a life of its own, persisting for up to several days after its parent MCS has dissipated.The orphaned MCV will sometimes then become the seed of the next thunderstorm outbreak. An MCV that moves into tropical waters,

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  30. Typhoon Soudelor while making the Landfall. Exclusive video..What a horrible sound & pounding
    winds.. A very threatening one..

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  32. Surface level circulation has developed over NW and adjoining BOB.. It’s associated UAC is embedded in the EW shear zone and present near Coastal AP

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  33. Weatherbug, just put your passport pages where it states that u have visited so many countries. I will apologise to u in open blog.

    Reply

  34. There are many mesoscale convective systems in India every year especially in the east, over WB and in Bangladesh too. Sadly most of these that occur over east, N and NW India go unnoticed because half of the officials have no idea on what an MCS is and those who do can’t mention it because IMD doesn’t include an MCS in its terminologies..

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  37. Yesterday Night TS

    Sriharikota – 14 mm
    Taramani – 8 mm
    Thirukalukundram (near Mahabs) – 8 mm
    Marakannam – 8 mm
    Kelambakkam – 4 mm
    Kunnathur (near Mahabs) – 3 mm

    Reply

    • Oh yes those storms were very very strong.. Even Chennai got rains from that WD front. I remember whole roads in AP being covered in hail, so much it looked like snow !

      Reply

  40. WeatherWhys® – Accuweather

    The number of severe thunderstorms in August is typically lower when compared to the spring months. A weaker and farther north jet stream in combination with warmer air aloft limits the potential for widespread, organized severe weather. In the spring, the jet is more powerful and there is cooler air aloft which leads to much greater instability across the United States.

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  42. Almost 1/3rd of august is gone….and poor week ahead for Aug team….physiological advantage for sep team

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  43. Keep an eye on the BOB system. The system’s LLCC will continue to intensify and approach AP/Orissa border. But as we all know due to high shear, the bands are tilted SW in SWM systems. As a result, AP and Telangana will face very heavy rains after a couple of days. Eastern Telangana might even wipe out the current deficits. There will be widespread/FWS rains in S AP and Central AP with scattered thunderstorms in eastern AP(Vizag and such) due to the sheared structure of the SWM systems.

    As far as Chennai is concerned, N TN will see 1 or 2 days of widespread thunderstorms before the system intensifies and makes landfall. That day of widespread thunderstorms will occur soon, maybe on Sunday/Monday. Expect good rainfall before cloudy skies take over.

    Reply

  52. *** Highlights of Aug Team’s Performance in the First Week ***

    It was a wonderful performance by the Aug team in the first week of the Kea Blog Hunger Games. Infact, it was a collective display of team effort right from Day 1 of the Games. The highlight of this week was the high voltage batting display by the Aug openers on the night of Aug 4. Will they take this momentum into the coming weeks? All depends on its middle-order batsmen (like Sel, GTS, etc.) who are yet to show their true potential.

    Reply

      • even in NEM, only southern most districts of tirunelveli, tuticorin enjoy the most. virudhunagar, madurai and dindugal miss many NEM.

  55. What will be the impact of elnino on Indian winter….I need 4 to 6 degrees in Hyderabad to enjoy coming winter

    Reply

  56. Just a fun survey (will not be implemented as per rules) 😀

    If the organizers allow bloggers to switch teams now, who all will be accepting that offer?

    I think Captain Susu Maddy will be first to accept… lol 😀

    Reply

  58. Yesterday’s minimum temperatures..
    Lammasingi – 16.8 degrees
    Paderu – 17.6 degrees
    Hyd sez – 22.0 degrees

    Reply

  66. The sea breeze often behaves like a gravity current, which is a mass of dense air that propagates into the ambient air by virtue of the hydrostatic pressure gradient between them. Thunderstorm cold-air outflows also behave like density currents and the rotortype circulation at their leading edge is due to pressure-density solenoids (see below) between the dense and less dense air.Points of intersection between the sea breeze front and horizontal convective rolls represent regions favorable for the initiation of convection.The general physical mechanisms of the sea breeze have been known for quite some time and can be explained by pressure-density solenoids associated with landwater surface inhomogeneities. Because of the strong heating of the land the mean temperature of the air above the sea is lower than the temperature of the air above the land (see figure below). Thus, if the pressure distribution at the surface is practically uniform, the isobaric surfaces somewhat higher in the atmosphere are inclined in such a way that they are directed downwards towards the sea. However, the surfaces of equal density (called isosteric surfaces), are inclined in the opposite direction, i.e. towards land (because of the higher temperature). This means that the isobaric and isosteric surfaces do not coincide and this results in the generation of circulation or vorticity.

    Reply

  71. Photos taken today as typhoon Soudelor hit the Taiwan coast

    Courtesy:
    ————–
    Westernpacificweather

    https://fbcdn-sphotos-c-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xta1/v/t1.0-9/11800298_1014187581949000_9079727090336947593_n.jpg?oh=dcb5d3e27b64aa4fc0160474b27c3979&oe=565334DB&__gda__=1446969126_88771b148e3332a9bfc58bcd318e1323

    https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/10982850_1014187678615657_3578389951263703186_n.jpg?oh=ceb6ed47ffb18fb61837323030da9aad&oe=5639B601&__gda__=1446963793_d38d65f2e4fe77e415fc80c6dc969f0c

    https://scontent-mxp1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/11047943_1014187721948986_4742327924458520099_n.jpg?oh=729dcce8685bd59d0c7ed1fe48ffce77&oe=56378947

    https://scontent-mxp1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/11828679_1014187918615633_5679767424100999058_n.jpg?oh=88c79a2d2457673f56873997d2a817f2&oe=5647DC6E

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  73. Who wants to join in kea whatsapp group? We can take a few more. Interested ppl pls post your # here

    Reply

  74. Taiwan is a small island country near china earlier called formosa. But this small country is a leader in many technological innovations. Thats why china although taiwan as part of china never used military power to annex taiwan like they used for tibet.

    Reply

    • No love lost. Anyone can live anywhere at any time. I think you must get your facts right. I may even have 2 wives and 4 kids, but that is entirely my business.

      You’d be better off putting all that energy you expend in wasting your time to better use. If I wish, I CAN post my SS card and Illinois drivers’ (obtained like 4 months back) in here, but then that’s something which is entirely private. Learn to live, and let live please.

      Reply

      • thanks for the advice. It only took 2 mins to be honest.. I am an expert in finding things. Since it is private i did not put ur photo. I respect that. If u wish and give permission i can put ur photo. Else leave it. I have seen u.

      • Some times I love this curious nature of human beings. Infact, I am very curious in nature

  76. i think i found Photo of Weatherbug. If he permits i can put his photo. Else i wont. He is white, angry looking and has light french beard.

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  81. what i understand so far is jon, ODM are very good in geography. I will also add weatherbug in this list.

    Reply

  82. Guys, I request everybody to make a trip to st. thomas mount aka parangi malai near guindy. It will definitely interest you. Sunset will be fantastic. Oh, that nice breeze and chennai city’s flood lights will take you to some other world. I am adding one more picture of this fantastic tourist and religious spot of chennai. It is really under rated. The approach road could have been better.

    Reply

  83. This st thomas mount is a good place for organizing kea meet. Infact it would be fantastic spot for that meet during NEM days. I am planning to go there again during NEM days.

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  84. In South, there is Pallavaram Forest, Nanmangalam Forest, Nallur forest (near Tambaram),

    In North Cholavaram Forest. And Near our Surya’s there are very big forest PeriyaPuliyur forest, Siruvada Forest and Palem Forest.

    Reply

  87. Because no pop up let no chance of rain , no see breeze set still, but heat its perfect condition for strong TS ,but nothings goes right

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  92. Lava rolling into the sea creating steam that raise so fast, it released multiple vortices!

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    • well done to them. Wish they can retain the Ashes in 2 years from now and even win the World cup in 4 years time.

      Reply

  98. Today moisture at mid lower level and mid level is excellent so we might see some rain as day progress into night

    Reply

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