Monsoon is likely to turn inactive for the next 5 to 6 days after a week long wet spell, courtesy “Cyclone Komen”. Active super typhoon in the West Pacific and lack of disturbance in northern Bay of Bengal are collectively leading to a short break like scenario. We will still see few patches of rains over coastal Karnataka, west and extreme northern parts of the country for the next 2 to 3 days. With the monsoon moving into a dormant state in the coming days, temperature may see a sharp rise all along Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Tamilnadu, AP and adjoining east coastal states for a period of one week. Thunderstorm activity is likely to increase over north coastal Tamilnadu & North interior Tamilnadu.
Chennai – Slightly uncomfortable day with temp settling close to 36-37 C . Thundershowers expected by late evening.
Coimbatore – Cloudy day expected with temperatures near 31-32 C. Scattered rains possible in one or two places.
Madurai – City continues to be very warm at 38-39 C. Evening thunderstorms likely in one or two places.
OMG…what a narrow miss of severe thunderstorms!!!
i think they intensified in sea. they were struggling to tower up over land
They weren’t close this time.
OMG…what’s this intense wind-shear kolaveri at late season near Tibetan high area??
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=shr&zoom=&time=
Awesome high!
Gud morning guys . Today is better of TS as shear is coming down near chennai lattitude. Lets hope for the best 🙂
Hope!! Chennai can see first 38c after 20 days..
no chance for 38c!
37 c sure shot today.. Letsre
35 itself is a doubt
The max temperature would probably be around 35c-36c only!
It’s time for the Taiwan to face the brunt of Typhoon Soudelor… The outer bands of Soudelor is showing up in the radar…
East coast will be under severe threat as mountains running parallel to the east coast across Taiwan will be cause of severe rainfall and landslides in the windward side.
As novak said, it looks very good for rains in Thaiyur.
Good morning..
“The day is what you make it! So why not make it a great one?” …..Steve Schulte
Chennai had a break and did not have rain yesterday.Isolated places of northern districts had light rain.
However ,part of Chennai and areas between south of Chennai and Pondicherry may have medium to rather heavy rain by today and for another 2 days.
Western and north interior districts may have light to medium rain.
Following is the rainfall amount of Tamilnadu till yesterday from January 1.
Nice ridge!
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=92.87,25.46,1113
7.30 am visible satellite
Didn’t it predict the same yesterday?
Yesterday was a mini-break with Mokka TS north and south of us and intensified once crossed into the Sea.
Today winds are bit less at mid-low levels, with lots of moisture around. Today TS will come to Chennai. Enjoy the rains.
Yes enough supply available
What supply available??
Well Gathered moisture
What,?
Moisture supply
Heat supply??
Thanks Rao.. Fine and reached safely… Here it’s terribly hotter with higher humidity
Thunderstorms to pound Thaiyur today.
Heavy rains ahead for ap
NEM system – 15.10.2015
On 16.10.2015
On 17.10.2015
On 18.10.2015
Shear zone now almost in chennai latitude. Pic attached
y u hav drawn as north-south pattern?
Poor guy still seeing a clouds
It looks whole country doesn’t have any good sunshine except at extreme southern Indian city Trivandrum. http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-ir.htm
Extras can replace captain clarke, highest 14
Weather Forecasting in India has improved.
The High Performance Computing (HPC) systems have been recently up-scaled to 1.2 petaflops to support the ongoing efforts for enhancing the weather forecasting capacities through assimilating all available global satellite radiance data for the production of forecast products at 22 km grid globally and 9km/3km grid over India/regional/mega city domains.
A state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmospheric weather & climate model for: a) improved prediction of monsoon rainfall on extended range to seasonal time scale (16 days to one season) and b) improved prediction of temperature, rainfall and extreme weather events on short to medium range time scale (up to 15 days) so that forecast skill gets quantitatively improved further for operational services of ESSO-IMD.
Through Indo-US collaboration, a “Monsoon Desk” has been set up for working jointly for improving seasonal forecast of the Indian monsoon rainfall. Through this forum, Indian and US Scientists are exchanging their ideas and sharing their expertise.
http://www.thehansindia.com/posts/index/2015-08-06/Weather-Forecasting-in-India-has-improved-168288
Good morning today any chance in chidambaram
Pleasant morning with high level clouds. Looks like temp may end up with 35 – 36 today in Chennai and around late evening/ night Thunderstorms expected. TS could be even intense as like Aug 3.
July 26, 31 & Aug 3rd we had dull weather and night turned as Monsterous TS. So possibly today as well we can expect squalls as the wind speed is less than yesterday.
North Interiors and North Coastal Tamilnadu and parts of Central Tamilnadu will see Thunderstorms Today
Published on Aug 6, 2015
Here is a short video about the latest El Nino status and predictions for the upcoming winter season in 2015-16.
The south is expected to get more — “subdued rainfall activity during the next 10 days”, with another improvement after August 25, says Indian Metereological Department. Rain activity would also rise over Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and some parts of Maharashtra from the coming Tuesday, and then again from August 25.
In the northern parts, after the current bout of showers, there is a possibility of improvement in rainfall only around the end of this month.
http://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/monsoon-26-less-in-past-week-115080601666_1.html
ElNiño likely to persist into early 2016.
Reference : http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
So let’s start talking about the prospects of NEM this year!…
Ok! 😀 So what are factor backing a good NEM this time?
El Nino will play a good part in this!
Nagarjunasagar can supply water to Hyderabad only for 24 days……Nagarjunasagar was never like this even in 1987 and 2002 drought
Oh no, hope the positive iod emerges by this month! 😦
Situation of Nagarjunasagar…..water level decreased drasically…
Officials fear that this drought may turn worser than the previous droghts of 1972 1987 2002 and 2009….Already drought started to swallow the farmers in Rayalaseema and Telangana….5 farmers commit sucide who are not in a position to clear the debts which were taken to cultivate the crop
YouTube video – MTSAT-2 & Himawari-8 visible imagery from today of Typhoon Soudelor
This one dedicated to KEA.
Australia’s innings was wrapped up in just 18.3 overs — the quickest
any team has ever been bowled out in the first innings in the 138-year
history of Test cricket
So still you demand moderator post?
No.school?
india va idhu
Droughts/floods are common factor in a term period for tn/ap but the cycle of such term is inevitable… But it has a vice versa pattern which can be analyzed to perfection, even chennai has its very unique term of periodic cycle
nasa captured other side of moon
http://www.dinamalar.com/news_detail.asp?id=1312106
Indians 351 Allout, SL Pres. XI 13/5 (9.0 ov)
Ishant doing a Broad to SL President most of the players are in Sri Lanka Team. 5 runs for 5wickets
http://www.espncricinfo.com/sri-lanka-v-india-2015/engine/match/895771.html
you too pj
yes. No rules in blog now.
then i need not push my candidature for mod post
That’s the battle I wanna see
Pleasant day in chennai
he said he don’t want to push for Mod post
You will see its adverse effect…stay tuned
Its swallowing the entire island
thats the EW zone (midlevel trough)
Yes…always northern part is vulnerable
OH NAHI GOD?
Looks like PJ has given up on rest of the SWM. These days he is more interested in finding NEM systems.
I think August team can safely claim they have won the battle.
i love cyclones. It has no relation with August or September.
With IOd turning futher positive in coming weeks, the real party will begin in September.
guest did u see the september cyclone
Yes, currently positive iod development is in the process. If it gets well established in coming weeks then it will prevent formation of strong systems in BOB during SO period.
If IOD turns positive then wind pattern will change leading to less rainfall in September for Chennai
This is only my view
positive iod during late SWM period( AS) tend to result in good rainfall over peninsular INdia.
JI leave Aug team, talk about Aus team
Rofl
On behalf of Partha,
Lower level convergence, upper level divergence along with 700 mb vorticity favorable for n.tn..
GTS, does the upper level winds have link to the Super Typhoon
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/08/07/1800Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-279.73,12.25,1024
Will check and get back on it pj
NOAA updates its earlier prediction from 70 to 90% prob of below normal hurricane season in Atlantic!!! With tis year 2015, it will b the 3rd straight year to see atlantic inactive and subdued.
11/4/1 is not that bad. Normal is around 11/6/3
its same as last year.. season may end worse..
but positive iod is good for Atlantic hurricane season.
mor than positive iod,lot of other factors play a key role.. moreover Positive iod not seen yet .I doubt even we may not see tat in coming months
Sel we’ll surely see a positive IOD
jupi,there is no change seen in sub surface waters of w.indian ocean for the past few months.. basin wide mode likely to be dominant tis year
But East Indian ocean is cooling down…!
7 days anomaly shows a slight increase in w.indian ocean and i couldnt see any cooling happening in eastern part.. even if it does ,it maybe temporary.. we need a significant cooling for one month atleast to say “positive iod emerging”
Lol I just saw the latest sst maps… It shows rapid cooling over East Indian ocean and warming over west Indian ocean!
i hav been observing it keenly ..how long it was shown cooling? just 3 days. tat may be due to wave activity.. warm waters was seen in eastern indian ocean till july 28th.. our agency is very confident with 90% probablity of neutral iod till nov-december
Hmm I don’t think so lets see
Here’s 7 days anomaly map. Looks like EIo cooling with good rate.
That’s what I said
the area below sumatra is considered.. here the cooler water is seen near timor sea.. i saw even more cooler waters near sumatra region in early july and later it managed to spring back to neutral conditions
But this time it won’t warm up again
but strong ER is currently present near MTC, it will further cool down sst anomaly.
El Nino will trigger a positive IOD this time
Just 2 percent to 50……Hyderabad and Golkonda fort…..It has been 40 days since it rained above 2 mm in Hyderabad
http://m.foreca.com/India/State_of_Andhra_Pradesh/Hyderabad
foreca predicts heavy rain for hyderabad tonight and tomorrow
Today it is very clear and cool…no sign of clouds too…even in satellite and doppler…
Yesterday how many cms rain in sirkazhi
Bangalore 1.30pm, Pop up of rain bearing clouds., drizzling at the moment at Sarjapur – attibele area…
September Team Good News – A system is coming to AP. North TN will also fall in its range.
Lol
What jupi, then our team..govinda vaaa
Lol he’s just scaring our team! Lol
Oh… Lol..lol
Lololol
Link please
Sorry to say this, this may not happen…
if at all happen ………………. will NDR get rain ? ? ? ?
Good question
why if october can happen then why not september.
SWM withdrawal plays a role imo
If basin wide warming persist in coming months, then we can expect active BOB during SON period.
No chance for basin wide warming to continue
Most of the models were expecting positive iod by July but till now it has not happened.
Yes but it is happening now
September cyclone for ap and odhisha.. Above ongole latitude
thats where it is going. We will get rains from outerbands, In SWM, south side will always have clouding.
But it’ll be a hit or miss only
yes.
neutral IOD with strong el nino will make BOB active during SON period.
Don’t say this for August team sake
Lol
September Team, August looks very scared….!
Sept…. ? ? ?
There will be a long break for Chennai before 15th Oct… onset of NEM
Lol u guys scared of meena 120 mm rains and searching for positive forecast in September
.lol.lol
Yes Lol
this battle is between August and September.
Yes I’m also saying that u got scared by seeing Meenambakkam august rainfall toll now
Lol good one
where did i say that.
Lol
.u didn’t say..scary of September guys
Exactly….abstract August team
is it ….looks like u are too worried and u have in ur own words have said that CFS IS A GOOD LONG RANGE MODEL.
itha thaana naanum sonnein.
Lol rofl
Day before yesterday many bloggers from nungambakkam said it was heavy rain but imd record 6.2 mm…so some complaint may reach imd and they are showing this additional rainfall
might be sweating of the person who takes reading might have fallen in the RG
sat img -sw sector https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/621167664ad13a2a0bc2d649408cd8fb149e1d1cc9ddcd4f0730c8b111d082ff.jpg
Omg Arabian sea looks dead… But positive iod can change it!
will positive iod happen?
Yes
@guest11k:disqus Is there any paper/study concluding ER wave cools the sst in any of the basin??
Basically er is a cooling agent
how?
Due to Westward propagation and upwelling
sorry ,i hav not been into tat .. do u hav any case study to show ??can u explain wat causes upwelling during their propagation and wat mechanism actually leads to cooling ?
The ocean thermocline moves up and the water cools down, the opposite thing happens when it moves down. That’s called as downwelling.
I had learnt about ER wave cooling effect on sst from Jupi and ParthaSri. They will be the right person to answer this question.
then how can it help in cyclogensis.
R u expecting any Cyclones in NEM 2015 ? ? ?
yes why not. name a NEM without cyclone.
radar https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/946c7b0754f398a5497d1d89c069374eeb32e1cbcf31a022577f75778ee6d498.gif
13N Rajdhani ready
Yes I was about to post this
direction of popup
derail agama vandhu seruma?
engine condition is good. Rail condition ???
Driver? Signal all clean?
Today special train to perambur loco….
Now August is facing the lull period
We’ll bounce back in a couple of days! Lol
Again shar/pulicat will get good ts today, chennai chances only around 9pm
Tambora in Indonesia which destroyed SWM in 1815…kethavarm caves in kurnool found recently has huge ash in them (some archealogist stated that it might be ash deposited during 1815 tambora volcano)…
Even many places in India got snowfall in 1815
plauge famine destroyed india during that year…
Did NEM took place that year?
1815 is said to be a worst year in the history…there was no summer and no monsoon….India was under the ash cloud emitted by tambora
Once pj posted that article
Some reports say madras got snowfall in 1815
Yes…
Pj,
I don’t think there is some direct relationship between w.Pacific super typhoon and our basin’s mid level winds
What could be the indirect-relation as you suspect ?
Kethavaram area in kurnool…one can find rock paintings of more than 3000 year old
Nice…
which place can we find that one…location pls
Near orvakal which is 25 km SE to kurnool
Weak cumulonimbus visible over west…
A global satellite for earth observation and disaster risk reduction — GlobalSat for DRR — proposed under the UN framework will be dedicated to APJ Abdul Kalam as a tribute to the vision of the celebrated rocket scientist and former Indian President who died July 27.
This has been stated by Milind Pimprikar, chairman of CANEUS (CANada-EUrope-US-ASia) Organization on Space Technologies for Societal Applications headquartered in Montreal, Canada.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/science/Global-satellite-to-be-named-after-Abdul-Kalam/articleshow/48388919.cms
I kind of feel. Days of heavy rain in August for chennai are dwindling..Arabian sea ,SWM current inflows look very dormant.. No heavy clouding at all.
So September will win
yes september favourite to win
Lolz
wait paaaaaa
Clear skies would be present in September over chennai
Rohit sharma’s poor form continues, again out for 8,
Lol I think he is not a test player!
maathi yosikareeenga
I think he is not a player
he is the one & only technically sound batsman after dravid/laxman
agree, but he never plays up to his talent, only on few occasions he do well, most time he faults, one of the player who lack confidence, he always waste his talent
Raining heavily in parts of bangalore
how good is today for rain in chennai ?
pitch dark in north bangalore now.Heavy rain started.
We can expect a good show today
Did anyone know about Toba catasrophic volcanic eruption…?
One interesting point I found in google
“Recent archelogical finds have suggested that a human population may have survived in Jwalapuram kurnool,South India”
Moreover it is suggested that nearby hominid populations survived because they lived upwind of Toba
Jwalapuram is very near to kurnool..I often find many foreigners over there
Kurnool is always mysterious to me
1.one can find diamonds on these lands
2.many archealogical sites
3.Rock gardens
4.ketavaram caves
Recently government planned to take 2000 acres of land to lease in order to dig gold mines
Kohli also again falters, how we are going to face S.Lankan spinners in tests?
Jupi,
I accept thermocline coming up can bring cold waters up. But how can a wave like ER which makes transit in quick time can stress up surface waters and bring up thermocline?
Can u show any anomalous wind vectors associated with Er wave
i hav asked for sst response to ER wave.. he just said about oceanic upwelling , downwelling process
Yes it happens most of the time
Jupi, Equatorial waves’ cooling might be temporary that too if they create good cloud convection (can compare cyclone’s cooling ability). But SSTs will bounce back. Main SST varying cause is ocean currents related (thermohaline circulation). So SST cooling ability will be effected till controlling other wave’s propagation. But it may not make IOD to change its mode permanently.
All the popup weakened
still sea breeze not set in chennai
Heat quotient missing today ?
It hailed in Bijapur 2 days back causing 200 crore loss…
Rain in Agumbe, Thirthalli, Madikeri..
Hosanagara 15 mm from first spell
Tomorrow I will try to visit and take a coverage on Jwalapuram archealogical site in kurnool….
last year National geographic team visited these sites and dug a pit to retrieve the ash (Toba volcanic ash)..
Chances are extremely that the Ashes test might end within 2 days.
but clarke believes still Aus can make a turn around,
its simple. Aus needs to hit 550 minimum
What about chennai dude? No predictions from you yet
I was in taiwan last week. very hot in the morning, but around 3:00 PM it would start raining and finish at 5:00 PM. at night no rains
Looks like we will have neutral IOD through out this year which is good for cyclogenesis during NEM.
Also this neutral IOD hindering current el nino event.
No chance
That’s not good news from an angle
Why Jups?
Cyclones tend to move north that’s why
Two possibilities exist: Australia all out today and we have a 2 day
test. Or Australia scoring 550 in the next 2 days and England bundle out
on the final day
imd Chennai shows 3mm
Why both GFS and ECMWF expecting upcoming LPA in NW BOB not to attain strong status( Depression). They’re keeping it at low intensity.
Both MJO & SOI may not be in good favourable conditions. For that BOB-LPA to attain strong status MJO must enter phase 3 that too with increase in SOI. I am expecting the timing of BOB-LPA with respect to MJO & SOI may not be good. So wee need to see if there will be any strong follow-up system if WP stays calm.
but as per forecast mjo will enter IO in coming weeks.
Yes, but still MJO will be in weak amplitude (<1) that too within phase 2. Keeping SWM dynamics (unlike NEM) in mind better if it enters phase 3-4 for creating good BOB system.
what about AP and TS. Will they get good rainfall from the upcoming wet spell around late August and early Sep period.
Yes.
Animals coming out of forests in search of water….many villages in srisailam feared of tigers…
It seems animals here getting more tortured by the severe drought conditions.
PJ weekly prescription of Aug and Sep for Chennai pl.
Govind sir. One of the weekend days is going to bring one good TS for Chennai
Kurnool Mahaboobnagar medak facing the worst drought after 2 decades…This drought seems to be very severe than 2009 and 1992
in between august 3rd and 4 th week these regions will get a good rain.i think it will be heavier in some places.have to wait
90 percent of crops withered completely….Out of hands….
now bothered about drinking water
Omg… This is Becoming Worse
Something To Rejoice!
Why are the systems forming at north bay? Why not something like the June system over the bay? Off north ap coast.
Due to the abnormal position of tibeten high
MJO must enter phases 3-4 for this to happen.
Telangana may declare agricultural emergency if it does not rain in next 10 days….
NBT will Work Don’t Worry!
Now very clear in hyderabad….this is 41 st day…I could not see rain above 2.5 mm
OMG…
NEM Should Pound APNTN
Monsoon trough to bring light rain over Hyderabad, Chennai – See more at: http://www.skymetweather.com/content/weather-news-and-analysis/monsoon-trough-to-bring-light-rain-over-hyderabad-chennai/#sthash.REiF9smx.dpuf
With no rain, hopes begin to wither
HYDERABAD: If the current weather pattern of a weak monsoon continues for the next few weeks, the Telangana government may need to dust off its drought management manuals soon. Reports from nine districts of the state are pointing to a dismal Kharif this year for the farmers. Even the India Meterological Department, just a day before, said a weakened monsoon was on the cards.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/hyderabad/With-no-rain-hopes-begin-to-wither/articleshow/48383338.cms