Temperatures to Rise over TN

Monsoon is likely to turn inactive for the next 5 to 6 days after a week long wet spell, courtesy “Cyclone Komen”. Active super typhoon in the West Pacific and lack of disturbance in northern Bay of Bengal are collectively leading to a short break like scenario. We will still see few patches of rains over coastal Karnataka, west and extreme northern parts of the country for the next 2 to 3 days. With the monsoon moving into a dormant state in the coming days, temperature may see a sharp rise all along Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Tamilnadu, AP and adjoining east coastal states for a period of one week. Thunderstorm activity is likely to increase over north coastal Tamilnadu & North interior Tamilnadu.
02. India_Sat (1)
Chennai – Slightly uncomfortable day with temp settling close to 36-37 C . Thundershowers expected by late evening.

Coimbatore – Cloudy day expected with temperatures near 31-32 C. Scattered rains possible in one or two places.

Madurai – City continues to be very warm at 38-39 C. Evening thunderstorms likely in one or two places.

632 thoughts on “Temperatures to Rise over TN

  1. Gud morning guys . Today is better of TS as shear is coming down near chennai lattitude. Lets hope for the best 🙂

  2. It’s time for the Taiwan to face the brunt of Typhoon Soudelor… The outer bands of Soudelor is showing up in the radar…

    East coast will be under severe threat as mountains running parallel to the east coast across Taiwan will be cause of severe rainfall and landslides in the windward side.

  3. Good morning..
    “The day is what you make it! So why not make it a great one?” …..Steve Schulte

    Chennai had a break and did not have rain yesterday.Isolated places of northern districts had light rain.

    However ,part of Chennai and areas between south of Chennai and Pondicherry may have medium to rather heavy rain by today and for another 2 days.

    Western and north interior districts may have light to medium rain.

    Following is the rainfall amount of Tamilnadu till yesterday from January 1.

  4. Yesterday was a mini-break with Mokka TS north and south of us and intensified once crossed into the Sea.

    Today winds are bit less at mid-low levels, with lots of moisture around. Today TS will come to Chennai. Enjoy the rains.

  5. Weather Forecasting in India has improved.
    The High Performance Computing (HPC) systems have been recently up-scaled to 1.2 petaflops to support the ongoing efforts for enhancing the weather forecasting capacities through assimilating all available global satellite radiance data for the production of forecast products at 22 km grid globally and 9km/3km grid over India/regional/mega city domains.

    A state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmospheric weather & climate model for: a) improved prediction of monsoon rainfall on extended range to seasonal time scale (16 days to one season) and b) improved prediction of temperature, rainfall and extreme weather events on short to medium range time scale (up to 15 days) so that forecast skill gets quantitatively improved further for operational services of ESSO-IMD.

    Through Indo-US collaboration, a “Monsoon Desk” has been set up for working jointly for improving seasonal forecast of the Indian monsoon rainfall. Through this forum, Indian and US Scientists are exchanging their ideas and sharing their expertise.

    http://www.thehansindia.com/posts/index/2015-08-06/Weather-Forecasting-in-India-has-improved-168288

  6. Pleasant morning with high level clouds. Looks like temp may end up with 35 – 36 today in Chennai and around late evening/ night Thunderstorms expected. TS could be even intense as like Aug 3.
    July 26, 31 & Aug 3rd we had dull weather and night turned as Monsterous TS. So possibly today as well we can expect squalls as the wind speed is less than yesterday.
    North Interiors and North Coastal Tamilnadu and parts of Central Tamilnadu will see Thunderstorms Today

  7. The south is expected to get more — “subdued rainfall activity during the next 10 days”, with another improvement after August 25, says Indian Metereological Department. Rain activity would also rise over Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and some parts of Maharashtra from the coming Tuesday, and then again from August 25.
    In the northern parts, after the current bout of showers, there is a possibility of improvement in rainfall only around the end of this month.
    http://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/monsoon-26-less-in-past-week-115080601666_1.html

  8. Nagarjunasagar can supply water to Hyderabad only for 24 days……Nagarjunasagar was never like this even in 1987 and 2002 drought

  9. Officials fear that this drought may turn worser than the previous droghts of 1972 1987 2002 and 2009….Already drought started to swallow the farmers in Rayalaseema and Telangana….5 farmers commit sucide who are not in a position to clear the debts which were taken to cultivate the crop

  10. This one dedicated to KEA.
    Australia’s innings was wrapped up in just 18.3 overs — the quickest
    any team has ever been bowled out in the first innings in the 138-year
    history of Test cricket

  11. Droughts/floods are common factor in a term period for tn/ap but the cycle of such term is inevitable… But it has a vice versa pattern which can be analyzed to perfection, even chennai has its very unique term of periodic cycle

  12. Looks like PJ has given up on rest of the SWM. These days he is more interested in finding NEM systems.

    I think August team can safely claim they have won the battle.

  13. On behalf of Partha,

    Lower level convergence, upper level divergence along with 700 mb vorticity favorable for n.tn..

  14. NOAA updates its earlier prediction from 70 to 90% prob of below normal hurricane season in Atlantic!!! With tis year 2015, it will b the 3rd straight year to see atlantic inactive and subdued.

      • mor than positive iod,lot of other factors play a key role.. moreover Positive iod not seen yet .I doubt even we may not see tat in coming months

      • jupi,there is no change seen in sub surface waters of w.indian ocean for the past few months.. basin wide mode likely to be dominant tis year

      • 7 days anomaly shows a slight increase in w.indian ocean and i couldnt see any cooling happening in eastern part.. even if it does ,it maybe temporary.. we need a significant cooling for one month atleast to say “positive iod emerging”

      • Lol I just saw the latest sst maps… It shows rapid cooling over East Indian ocean and warming over west Indian ocean!

      • i hav been observing it keenly ..how long it was shown cooling? just 3 days. tat may be due to wave activity.. warm waters was seen in eastern indian ocean till july 28th.. our agency is very confident with 90% probablity of neutral iod till nov-december

      • the area below sumatra is considered.. here the cooler water is seen near timor sea.. i saw even more cooler waters near sumatra region in early july and later it managed to spring back to neutral conditions

  15. Just 2 percent to 50……Hyderabad and Golkonda fort…..It has been 40 days since it rained above 2 mm in Hyderabad

  16. September Team Good News – A system is coming to AP. North TN will also fall in its range.

  17. is it ….looks like u are too worried and u have in ur own words have said that CFS IS A GOOD LONG RANGE MODEL.

  18. Day before yesterday many bloggers from nungambakkam said it was heavy rain but imd record 6.2 mm…so some complaint may reach imd and they are showing this additional rainfall

  19. Tambora in Indonesia which destroyed SWM in 1815…kethavarm caves in kurnool found recently has huge ash in them (some archealogist stated that it might be ash deposited during 1815 tambora volcano)…
    Even many places in India got snowfall in 1815
    plauge famine destroyed india during that year…

  20. Pj,

    I don’t think there is some direct relationship between w.Pacific super typhoon and our basin’s mid level winds

  21. A global satellite for earth observation and disaster risk reduction — GlobalSat for DRR — proposed under the UN framework will be dedicated to APJ Abdul Kalam as a tribute to the vision of the celebrated rocket scientist and former Indian President who died July 27.
    This has been stated by Milind Pimprikar, chairman of CANEUS (CANada-EUrope-US-ASia) Organization on Space Technologies for Societal Applications headquartered in Montreal, Canada.
    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/science/Global-satellite-to-be-named-after-Abdul-Kalam/articleshow/48388919.cms

  22. I kind of feel. Days of heavy rain in August for chennai are dwindling..Arabian sea ,SWM current inflows look very dormant.. No heavy clouding at all.

  23. Did anyone know about Toba catasrophic volcanic eruption…?
    One interesting point I found in google
    “Recent archelogical finds have suggested that a human population may have survived in Jwalapuram kurnool,South India”
    Moreover it is suggested that nearby hominid populations survived because they lived upwind of Toba
    Jwalapuram is very near to kurnool..I often find many foreigners over there

  24. Kurnool is always mysterious to me
    1.one can find diamonds on these lands
    2.many archealogical sites
    3.Rock gardens
    4.ketavaram caves
    Recently government planned to take 2000 acres of land to lease in order to dig gold mines

  25. Jupi,

    I accept thermocline coming up can bring cold waters up. But how can a wave like ER which makes transit in quick time can stress up surface waters and bring up thermocline?
    Can u show any anomalous wind vectors associated with Er wave

  26. Jupi, Equatorial waves’ cooling might be temporary that too if they create good cloud convection (can compare cyclone’s cooling ability). But SSTs will bounce back. Main SST varying cause is ocean currents related (thermohaline circulation). So SST cooling ability will be effected till controlling other wave’s propagation. But it may not make IOD to change its mode permanently.

  27. Tomorrow I will try to visit and take a coverage on Jwalapuram archealogical site in kurnool….
    last year National geographic team visited these sites and dug a pit to retrieve the ash (Toba volcanic ash)..

  28. I was in taiwan last week. very hot in the morning, but around 3:00 PM it would start raining and finish at 5:00 PM. at night no rains

  29. Two possibilities exist: Australia all out today and we have a 2 day
    test. Or Australia scoring 550 in the next 2 days and England bundle out
    on the final day

  30. Why both GFS and ECMWF expecting upcoming LPA in NW BOB not to attain strong status( Depression). They’re keeping it at low intensity.

    • Both MJO & SOI may not be in good favourable conditions. For that BOB-LPA to attain strong status MJO must enter phase 3 that too with increase in SOI. I am expecting the timing of BOB-LPA with respect to MJO & SOI may not be good. So wee need to see if there will be any strong follow-up system if WP stays calm.

  31. Animals coming out of forests in search of water….many villages in srisailam feared of tigers…
    It seems animals here getting more tortured by the severe drought conditions.

  32. Kurnool Mahaboobnagar medak facing the worst drought after 2 decades…This drought seems to be very severe than 2009 and 1992

    • in between august 3rd and 4 th week these regions will get a good rain.i think it will be heavier in some places.have to wait

  33. Why are the systems forming at north bay? Why not something like the June system over the bay? Off north ap coast.

  34. With no rain, hopes begin to wither

    HYDERABAD: If the current weather pattern of a weak monsoon continues for the next few weeks, the Telangana government may need to dust off its drought management manuals soon. Reports from nine districts of the state are pointing to a dismal Kharif this year for the farmers. Even the India Meterological Department, just a day before, said a weakened monsoon was on the cards.

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/hyderabad/With-no-rain-hopes-begin-to-wither/articleshow/48383338.cms

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