Monsoon to become vigorous over Central India

keaweather 2015, KEA Blog, SWM-2015

The Remnants of cyclone ‘Komen’ is now over Jharkhand and it will move sluggishly westwards which will produce torrential rains in Chhattisgarh and the eastern parts of Madhya Pradesh. There will be a slight increase in rainfall activity over Karnataka, Goa and South coastal Maharashtra mostly due to the moisture incursion from Arabian Sea caused by the above system. There is also a western disturbance which will bring widespread rainfall for the Jammu and Kashmir. The North Bay Of Bengal area which was active for the past two weeks due to continuous formation of monsoonal Low pressure, will be quiet for the whole week.
For the past few days, north interior TN and coastal areas were witnessing quite intense thunderstorms which was indirectly related to the weather system which existed in North Bay. As the weather system has moved inland and weakened, thunderstorm activity will gradually decrease over TN.

02. India_Sat

Chennai will see max temperature settling around 35C.Skies will be mostly cloudy with a chance of isolated thunderstorms during late evening/night.

Coimbatore will witness cloudy skies with max temperature moving closer to 32C.Showers would occur during evening/night.

Madurai’s max temperature will be between 37-38C with a possibility of thunderstorm development in the evening hours.

2,154 thoughts on “Monsoon to become vigorous over Central India”

  2. This Day In Weather History

    Philadelphia, PA (1898)
    Record rainfalls – 2.24″ in 30 minutes, 3.81″ in one hour, 5.48″ in two hours; storm total 5.89″.

    Corpus Christi, TX (1970)
    161 mph wind from Hurricane Celia, resulted in 11 deaths and $454 million damage. Also, gusts to 180 mph (state record) at Arkansas Pass & Robstown, TX.

    Buffalo, NY (1980)
    A total of 12″ of rain in 6 hours.

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  3. OMG…super typhoon SOUDELOR reaching catastrophic winds of 160 Knts (296KMPH) with gust speed 195 Knts (316 KMPH). Its mind boggling speed ):(

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  4. Elnino systems are very dangerous it looks likely if they survive the odds. Komen continuing its destruction all along its path. I think no single forecast agency forecasted about Komen to survive such time.

    Interestingly all agencies expected it to travel along Gangetic plains via NW-track. But surprisingly it taken course towards central India by W/SW track.

    http://www.eenadu.net/Homeinner.aspx?item=break6

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  5. Gud morning guys. Its cool and pleasent nice climate ;). Today also there is chance of TS but need to wait and see what hapenns.

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  7. Good morning..
    We must believe that we are gifted for something, and that this thing, at whatever cost, must be attained. –Marie Curie

    North of Chennai areas had medium rain last night..

    Light to Medium rain is expected tonight as well to many parts of north of Chennai areas.
    South Chennai is expected to have some thunderstorm activity by tomorrow.

    Isolated places of north interior TN districts may have medium rain today.

    Generally weather would be warm and with high level clouds.

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  14. If the current well markedlow pressure near chattisgargh moves WSW then heavy rains guarenteed for whole telangana and North karnataka

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  18. GFS precipitation outlook maps are blunder…they did not even predict 20 mm in marathwada region but remnants of koman pounding there

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  20. moisture availability at chennai at 5 00pm
    700hpa-96%
    500hpa-96%
    850hpa-63%

    so expecting very good rains at chennai towards evening/night!!..

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    • Moisture alone wont help for TS we must need trough support as well. Even yesterday there is good moisture but no rains. So wait till late evening rains possible only after 8pm.

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  21. South AP battered heavily. Good Rains over
    Tada, Nagari, Nagalapuram, Pulicat, Shar areas.

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  22. The table shows the total Rainfall of the following west coast regions..
    1. Ahmedabad. 2. Mumbai SCZ, 3. Mumbai Colaba, 4. Panjim.Goa.

    Some catching up to do for Colaba . Matter of one or two spells as it has happened many a times in the past.

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  23. Core monsoon area shld score heavily as much as possible before the break phase..It will b very useful if the system completes it’s full journey as cmc predicted.. other agencies expected it to weaken near W.Madhya pradesh and adj s. Rajasthan.

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  24. Heavy rains lashed chittoor and nellore dist of andhra pradesh and Tiruvallur dist of tamilnadu… Core chennai just miss.. After ts hitting periyapalayam it turns to move ene and ne….

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  25. I eagerly expected to see a few of our bloggers names in this article… 😦

    Meanwhile kudos to Pradeep John and Gokul TS – TOI article..

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  26. Kea,
    It looks WP typhoon Soudelor spoiling our Chennai winds to turn more NW instead of W/SW. But still we can hope some +ve about rainfall scenario.

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  27. Now a look at how Kearala has fared this SWM till July 29th. None of the regions have got close to their Normal Rainfall amount .

    Image courtesy..IMD.

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  32. Banaswadi in Bangalore Reaches 500 mm For The Year !!!

    Courtesy – Bangalore Page

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  34. I’m studying for exams so can someone tell me a quick word about today’s TS possibility?

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    • great i remember how correct you predicted last year NEM . Hopefully this year it is above normal for us

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  41. I have drawn small graph by taking ONI, QBO and SWM-cumulative rainfall in strong Elnino years. Its clearly evident that both 1957 & 1997 years have very favorable QBOONI equation and hence SWM-RF ended in normal/excess mode.

    SWM-2015 exhibiting similar trend of 1957 & 1997 with respect to QBO & ONI. So SWM-2015 definitely will end on normal mode at the end of September 30th, 2015.

    Note:
    (1)QBO further increased to +7.45 from previous value of +2.18. As we already know that ONI is increasing trend due to strong Elnino conditions. So 2015 SWM will be having favorable QBOONI. So expecting good SWM-2015.
    (2) please note that ONI & QBO indexes are monthly during SWM-months, where as rainfall is cumulative SWM-RF

    graphical QBOONI-SWM-strong Elnino years.

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  42. SWM- season’s QBOONI rule:
    When QBO is in decreasing trend with respect to ONI index’s increasing trend (means if both moving in opposite directions/inversely proportional) during SWM-season, then SWM will record less than normal and vice-versa.

    SWM-2015 having favorable QBOONI formula just similar to 1997 & 1957 SWM season. So SWM-2015 may work against odd forecasts and may end in normal mode by the end of September 30th, 2015.

    graphical QBOONI-SWM-strong Elnino years.

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  43. SWM- season’s QBOONI rule:
    When QBO is in decreasing trend with respect to ONI index’s increasing trend (means if both moving in opposite directions/inversely proportional) during SWM-season, then SWM will record less than normal and vice-versa.

    So according to the above QBOONI formula SWM-2015 must exhibit good performance. As we already seen the stunning performance of SWM-2015 in 1st 2 months (1st half) with just 5% deficit. Next 2 months (2nd half) may also exhibit similar trend. So overall there will be high chances or SWM-2015 to end on normal note.

    ONI-2015 (not complete data but we know the increase in trend): http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

    QBO-2015: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

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  44. Guest11k.
    It looks we need to refine (there are 4 possible combinations majorly) this QBOONI formula for easy understanding.

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    • I think there’s no need of it. During el ninos, ONI will be increasing trend so to counter el nino effect on SWM if QBO increases( indicates strengthening of TEJ) then SWM will be able to perform well.

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  45. Super Typhoon Soudelor is the strongest storm on Earth this year packing a sustained wind speed of 286kmh and 350kmh gusts.

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  46. Guest11k,
    As per our earlier discussion it looks IOD may not/stay turn strong +ve RELATIVE to ONI index. So highly active BOB-NEM cyclonic season on the cards. Probability for this scenario will enhance if Atlantic ocean stays relatively calm.

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    • As per models forecast, IOD will mostly be weak positive during NEM. So it will not be able to prevent BOB from becoming active. We can expect active BOB during NEM.

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  54. Kea,

    That stupid beauty WP-Soudelor spoiling our chance by turning the possibility W/SW winds to NW-winds. Even it becomes monster and going to pull or innocent Komen too during next 48 hrs.

    So earlier I had given the time limit august 3rd-6th for good TS. Unfortunately I underestimated the power of WP-super typhoon.

    But still due to WP-super typhoon pulling effect might create some wonderful VS-TS between 4th & 6th. Only -ve point is that winds are going to oscillate between W & NW. Lets see what will happen in reality.

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      • same thing may happen during next 2-3 days too till WP-super typhoon makes LF. Its monster and swallowing everything on its away and exhibiting very distant effect. Our Komen may also surrender to its power.

  55. El Niño to persist into early 2016

    The 2015 El Niño is now well-established and continues to strengthen. In the coming weeks, the central tropical Pacific Ocean (the NINO3.4 region) may exceed the peak values reached during the 2002 and 2009 El Niño events, but current anomalies remain well short of the 1982 and 1997 peaks. Note that peak values are normally recorded late in the year. Trade winds remain weakened and are likely to contribute to more warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Other indicators such as cloudiness near the Date Line, the Southern Oscillation Index, and sub-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain typical of an established El Niño.

    International climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology all indicate that El Niño will continue to strengthen, and persist into early 2016. Typically, El Niño peaks during the late austral spring or early summer, and weakens in the following year.

    El Niño is usually associated with below-average winter–spring rainfall over eastern Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country. However, El Niño is not the only influence on rainfall and temperature; other factors, such as sea surface temperatures to the north of Australia and in the Indian Ocean, also affect Australia’s climate.

    The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral. A positive IOD event remains possible, with three of the five international models indicating a positive IOD is likely during late winter to spring. A positive IOD is typically associated with reduced winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern and central Australia.

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    • Vela, the following paragraph they are simply cutting and pasting again and again despite without any major developments 😦

      “The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral. A positive IOD event remains possible, with three of the five international models indicating a positive IOD is likely during late winter to spring. A positive IOD is typically associated with reduced winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern and central Australia.”

      Reply

  58. Kiran,

    It looks KOMEN will be dragged towards Telangana and then AP during next 2-3 days, so there will be good chance of heavy rains, so keep fingers crossed with buckets readying 🙂

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  60. Tropical cyclones
    Activity in the Bay of Bengal, Philippine Sea and the central Pacific region
    Southern hemisphere tropical depression unlikely to become a cyclone over the next few days

    El Niño well-established
    Latest weekly NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly is very high (+1.7 °C)
    El Niño will likely strengthen further, and persist into early 2016

    Madden–Julian Oscillation weak
    Signal weakened over Africa during the last week
    Likely to remain weak to moderate this week

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  66. Soudelor, which hours earlier had been upgraded from a tropical storm to a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, made a direct hit on Saipan, destroying buildings, downing trees and power lines and flooding the island’s power plant, according to Pacific News Center. Saipan endured severe damage after Typhoon Soudelor passed through the island late Sunday night with maximum sustained winds of 105 miles per hour and gusts of up to 120 miles per hour.

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  67. satellite image looking promising for Telangana North Karnataka and North Rayalaseema..Convection expected to shift towards Telangana due to the favourable steering winds at 50 and 700 hpa

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  68. Precipitation outlook not expecting much rain in Maharastra but it is already pounding there…..

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    • Kiran,
      Don’t Believe In Forecasts!
      See Nunga Hardly Received 45 mm At The End Of June
      But See Now We Have Got 260 mm
      So You Will Get Rains! (Hopefully)

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  70. Worst drought facing Telangana and AP as monsoon fails

    Hyderabad: With the southwest monsoon season entering its second half and no sign of rains, a severe drought is staring in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.

    With a very harsh summer and deadly heatwave followed by a long dry spell in the first two months of the monsoon season, the agriculture sector was hit badly in both the states. Lack of rains has also depleted groundwater resources resulting in a lack of drinking water in the rural and urban areas. It has also caused hydel-power generation to come to a standstill in Telangana.

    http://gulfnews.com/news/asia/india/worst-drought-facing-telangana-and-ap-as-monsoon-fails-1.1560441

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  71. Crops withering due to lack of rain

    The farming community in Karimnagar district is in doldrums following the prevailing drought conditions and the rains eluding them even after completion of two months of rainy season.

    The early monsoon in June had rekindled hope among the farming community about the good rainfall during this kharif season. They started cultivation expecting good rainfall. But, the rains remained only for a few days. Seed such as cotton, maize, green gram which germinated after a few days, withered due to dry weather conditions. The area of cultivation came down drastically in the district. Against the normal area of cultivation of 5.14 lakh hectares during the kharif season, the farmers had so far cultivated only 3.43 lakh hectares, which is only 66 per cent. The rain-fed crops such as maize, cotton, soyabean, etc. had withered in fields due to non-availability of water.

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      • because no other picture carrying the picture of clouds is avaliable

      • Lol when was the last time you went on a vacation to some exotic place..

        Some of our friends living in Mumbai went to Mahabs and stayed in a resort and proudly claimed they went on a vacation..I didn’t know whether to laugh or cry..Mahabs…

      • lol
        mahabs and mumbai are very near not even 200 kms
        then i will go to parangi malai and say i went on a vacation!

      • Not much!
        in navarathri time rains will start so i will not go to vacation !
        summer time IPL matches irukum so stay in my home!
        this summer holidays me and my family went to yelagiri on a 2 day holiday

  75. August-September rainfall to be below normal: IMD

    More than 40% of the country is rain deficient, while 27% has received normal rainfall and 30% has received excess, says IMD

    The country will receive only 84% of the 50-year average rainfall in the second half of the monsoon season this year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.

    In its long-range forecast for August-September released on Monday, the government forecaster stuck to its deficient monsoon prediction for the entire season. August and September typically receive 49% of the rainfall for the entire June-September rainy season.

    http://www.livemint.com/Politics/V9sbYV6CEvZZ3cB2fwLqiK/AugustSeptember-rainfall-to-be-below-normal-IMD.html

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  89. Mp rains last 24hrs ending 8.30am

    Pachmarhi 206 mm
    Seoni 124 mm
    Betul 102 mm
    Chhindwara 102 mm
    Jabalpur 95 mm
    Umaria 62.8 mm
    Sagar 45.6 mm
    Bhopal 32 mm
    Khajuraho 29 mm

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  90. Indru mazhai varuma varaadha….varum endru dhaan thondrugiradhu.. poruthirundhu paarpoom makkale.

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  93. first of all we need bright blue skies at least till noon. that is absent. both medium and upper level winds are slightly unfavorable. but things could change dramatically, as august /september always produce massive thundestorms.
    ss

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  95. i need to find a new Manual RG because my RG can be able to record rain of only 10 cm as it is bit small
    so i need a big one now!

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  96. we need strong pop-ups near poonamalle-arakonam pocket to reach city. vellore popups would go towards kanchipuram/chingleput.
    ss

    Reply