Monsoon to be active in Central India

keaweather 2015, KEA Blog, SWM-2015

The remnants of cyclone Komen is now seen as a Depression (D).It will weaken further into a well marked low pressure area (WML), but will continue to give heavy to very heavy rainfall in parts of Odisha, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh. Isolated places will get extreme rainfall of over 200 mm. The Low Pressure Area (LPA) over Pakistan/Rajasthan will continue to dump more rains in western parts of Rajasthan. The offshore trough off west coast is struggling but will be active compared to the past few days with heavy rains expected off Maharashtra Coast due to the inward movement of the system over Madhya Pradesh / Chattisgarh. Light to moderate rains are expected in the interior regions of North-west Tamil nadu and North Tamil Nadu.

02. India_Sat (1)

Chennai will see maximum between 34-36C with light showers expected towards evening / night in the suburbs and outskirts.

Coimbatore will be less breezy with temperature settling close to 31-32C with a chance of light rains later in the day.

Madurai will continue to be hot with temperature ranging around 36-38C. Northern parts of the city and outskirts will have the chance of being hit by thunderstorms in the evening / night.

1,480 thoughts on “Monsoon to be active in Central India”

    • ha..ha..this clearly proves how important W/SW winds for the core-Chennai to receive good amount of the rains. After July 31st late night storms, winds become unfavorable. Core Chennai missed good rainfall chances on 1st & 2nd of this month due to unfavorable wind direction.

      Hope from August 3rd (today) onwards winds to change W/SW direction due to Komen’s perfect alignment.

      Reply

    • He should be proud of himself. He took his stand in the morning when nobody was expecting rains. And again stood by his prediction in the evening too when nothing was forming.

      Who would have thought intense TS to pass by 20 km north of us.

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      • Atlast appreciating even if it missed, this is want we need Ehsan. Always dont conclude with Nunga.

    • Cheers to the KEA Team, they have to spend 2 hrs of time daily inspite having to do their daily work.

      Reply

  8. ha..ha..it looks our friends still in dreams of failure in SWM-2015, but quite contrary not only agriculture sector but also financial sector on steroidal boost due to unexpected mega-performance of SWM in crucial 1st 2 months (June & July) despite odd forecasts.

    Note:
    2nd half (august & September) early forecasts indicating good show by SWM over southern India.

    article 1: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/raghuram-rajan-unlikely-to-cut-rates-in-upcoming-policy-review-say-economists/articleshow/48322254.cms

    article 2: http://www.livemint.com/Industry/fG0UPpqkYCYbiTp2uqHWHM/New-models-monsoon-prop-up-car-sales.html

    Reply

  10. Look at the intensity of the storms closeby. However RH at 700 hPa is only at 60-65%. I hope this teaches everyone a lesson that heavy storms can form in the presence of RH at this level.

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    • Yeah just now looked at the RH level in Earth Null school. It was less @700 & 500Hpa only at 850Hpa moisture is availability is high.
      850 hpa – 78%
      700hpa – 64%
      500hpa – 62% Over Pulicat

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  15. Nungambakkam, Chennai broke the All time record for 24 hour rainfall in August twice in the past 7 years – first time was on Aug 20, 2008 where 100.3mm of rain was recorded (that was the first time Nunga crossed 100mm on an August day) .. this record was shattered in 3 years – the night of 24 August 2011, where 156mm rain was dumped in around 2-3 hours by some continuous line of thunderstorms

    Courtesy: Karthik Raghavan

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  16. Minjur – 17 mm and Ennore – 10mm. The TS did not add anything significant. These were mostly yesterday morning rains. It missed everyplace which had RG. We have to see how much Ponneri got.

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  17. Good morning..Happy Aadi Perukku (Aadi 18) to you and family.

    Part of north Chennai and suburban had medium to heavy rain in late night.Areas between marakanam and pondicherry had notable rain.

    Chennai to have medium rain today in the late evening/night.

    Depression is moved near Ranji, Jharkand and heavy rain is expected in Jharkand, Gangetic West bengal and part of MP for next 24 hrs.Approx 258 people from West bengal, 53 from Gujarat lost their lives in related incidents.

    Some parts of North Tamilnadu will have medium to rather heavy rain today

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  19. We can know whether Ennore got rains, if so its a victory for Partha. Ennore is part of Chennai

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  21. Even if the TS would have hit ,it would not have been as heavy as July 31st night eelctric storms. Those are one of kind storms.

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  23. Today storm is equal to freak TS on May 3rd, 2015. It was super Intense see the DBZ upto 15 kms. No one expected this TS too

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  29. Congrats Gokul (TBM) and @ Pradeep John – once again in the limelight of TOI – that too in the front page!!

    ————-
    This July among city’s wettest in 200 years

    Weather blogger T Gokul points to typhoon activity in the western pacific as a reason for the hot winds in early July.
    Moisture required for monsoon activity in the country was taken away by the typhoon, resulting in the dry spell. Gokul said, “A low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal near West Bengal indirectly led to the concentrated spells of rain.“

    Independent weather blogger Pradeep John called the July heat wave unusual. Last July, there was not a single day when the temperature crossed 40°C, while the rainfall was a mere 62.8mm from eight days of rainfall.

    http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31807&articlexml=This-July-among-citys-wettest-in-200-years-03082015001064

    Reply

  30. Nice detailed July weather (Summary( pattern report in TOI.
    Congratulations bloggers Pradeep and GTS and Kea Weather.

    Reply

  34. Early morning TS – North of chennai consumed all Moisture at all levels around chennai.. Does that mean ,today’s TS probability is very low..

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  41. good morning everyone,

    congrats to Gokul and PJ for their contributions in TOI.
    Partha u rock,it was just miss but it could have been easily 5-7cm if it crossed us.
    keep rocking.we are here to support you as always.

    Reply

  44. Congratulations to PJ and GTS, now it is celebration time.

    Oh what a miss from that TS, as i mentioned yesterday to Rao that we will get it by mid night or early morning. Thats really a sad part for me.

    I woke up at 03.45 AM, could see the flashing lightning and it was non stop, then i went to sleep with faith that it would rain. That is really unfortunate, Chennai missed big numbers…

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  45. வெப்பச் சலனம் நீடிப்பதால் தமிழகத்திலும், புதுச்சேரியிலும் 2 நாட்களுக்கு மழை பெய்யும் என்று சென்னை வானிலை மையம் தெரிவித்துள்ளது

    இது தவிர கேரளா, லட்சத்தீவு ஆகிய தென் மேற்கு பருவமழை தீவிரம்
    அடைந்துள்ளதால் தமிழகத்திலும் இதன் தாக்கம் இருக்கும் என்று வானிலை ஆய்வு
    மையம் தெரிவித்துள்ளது.
    Ctsy: tamil.oneindia.com

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  46. There is a big change in wind pattern causing a very different pic .These anomalies have changed the variation in local land breeze ,and trough too.

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  49. Look At the PAC Its a Just miss indeed … 😦 . If it would have hit chennai Probably All Parts Of chennai Would Have recorded Minimum 80mm Of rainfall…That Deadly It is… 😮

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  50. OMG Ennore was battered today morning ends with 50 mm. Watchout for Ponneri figures.

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  55. Tis anticylone might be in response to MISO(not sure).and tis was the one that caused a big change in rainfall pattern(late night,early morning) and wind pattern for last 4-5 days i suppose

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    • Last four balls he hit sixes and in the next over first ball Hirwani out. We are yet to find d a genuine allrounder

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  67. Just readt the Article in TOI. Congratz PJ and GTS. Time to start an Indian Weather channel. Just imagine Live Reporting of TS’s from nagari to chennai. It would be Wow !!..

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  69. Its all out war between these giants .. gfs,cfs,ukmo,bom vs Ecmwf. ecmwf is the only model expecting good rains for peninsular tamilnadu,ap and w.coast in august ,rest of the models not expecting big numbers

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  74. The
    CEO of a tech firm in Turkey has laid a new claim to being the best boss
    in the world after giving his employees 17 million pounds in bonuses
    following the sale of the company

    Reply

  76. TAMIL NADU DAILY RAINFALL
    03-08-2015

    Ennore AWS (Tiruvallur Dist) 5

    Manamadurai (Sivaganga Dist)3

    Melur (Madurai Dist), Ponneri (Tiruvallur Dist), Sivaganga(Sivaganga Dist) 2 each

    Paramakudi (Ramanathapuram Dist), Naduvattam (Nilgiris
    Dist), Red hills (Tiruvallur Dist), Tirumangalam (Madurai Dist),
    Illayangudi (Sivaganga Dist) 1 each

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  77. next 10 days precip accumulation from GFS..we can see the hot spots where convective rainfall is maximum along the hills and mountains.. (orographic lifting).. tis is where the local conditions play a vital role.

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  78. North Interior karnataka and almost all Telangana districs excluding warangal khammam adilabad nalgonda nizamabad along with kurnool Nellore going to reach Scanty level soon
    North Interior karnataka deficit – 52 percent
    west Telangana deficit – 56 percent
    Nellore district deficit – 55 percent
    kurnool dist deficit – 56 percent
    Hyderabad deficit – 52 percent
    karnataka Maharastra giving company for us in drought

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  79. yesterday i went puzhal lake. complete dry, except 2/3 ponds of water, no cloth washing, no vehicle cleaning going on

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  81. News Flash,

    The rain trend in Chennai likely to continue till 07th.

    Also as i was saying for the past one week, today or tomorrow we have a chance for widespread TS in and around Chennai.

    So far we had rainfall in the night, that trend might change little from today. TS will be in the early part of night.

    Reply

  86. Today Near my house @ pillayar koil…they are performing yaagam for lord varuna…with 10,000 sticks…for bringing copious rains

    Reply

    • Show them CFS and tell them 10000 sticks will bring them nothing. How many trees are cut in the process.

      Reply

      • The sticks used for yajna are usually the dried chullis that naturally falls off the trees. And in any case they are not the huge trunk of trees. It is sad we never don’t complain to the same extent when we do deforestation to build the cities. While we don’t complain as much about the pollution from fossil fuels but we enthusiastically complain the yajnas without understanding the big picture. And with our myopic senses we can never perceive the higher powers, but we pretend to be a know-all.

      • This is not a religious blog and Yajanas dont bring rain. Can u corelate yajanas done and the rainfall and show me the bigger picture of rains ?. I am againt all religion starting with Christianity, Muslim, Hindu or Jains wasting money in the name of rains.

        For past three years all are doing Yajanas did it bring Rain ? With oversighted and blind people like u we can never achieve anything.

        What have you done to community to prevent de-forestation ? Dont blow your Yajanas here.

      • U created a new profile just to reply this to me. You are an coward

      • Guys, I apologize if my post had hurt anyone. That was not my intention. I just wished to correct the misunderstanding to my capacity, especially on a subject on which I have spent a great deal of my time. I chanced to come upon this site while surfing. I see that you are all extremely focused weather enthusiasts, studying it scientifically. This is very wonderful feather in the cap of Chennai.

        As far me, when you spend considerable part of your life outside your country you tend to study deeply, appreciate and see things beyond the surface and that increases your love for your country. The big picture that I referred to is not just about the seasonal rainfall. But as not every forum is appropriate for every topic I don’t wish to delve any further and disturb you guys any more. Carry on with your good work and best wishes.

        Mr John, FYI, I do spend most of my earnings and energy on the welfare of my beloved country to my tinniest capacity. So I believe I am socially responsible.

      • PJ, usually yaagam sticks are taken which is already fallen from arasa maram….cutting down trees is not connected with this

      • I just posted that above msg in blog because its for good cause and kind of honouring or rectifying the mistakes made by humans to nature, so rain is essential for All…and I like that initiative, common peoples almost 75% of them don’t know about CFS/weather models..

  87. All said and done, rain forecasting is like josiyam. Depends on celestial happenings. We can only predict probability. Also. I Feel we hv to take into acct the pollution levels to predict as it affects the atmosphere very much. Probably missing rain or unexpected rains are due to this factor. I do not know any forecast takes this.
    Anycomments?

    Note : i am new to this blog and is a novice in this science . Or this an art?

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  91. Overhead Cumulus developments in Thanjavur.. But forecast of rains today are bleak. Considering what models forecasted yesterday and how true it became, hope the same happens today.

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      • we are going to play against S.L this month, are we minnows, or S.L? considering both teams poor form in recent times, i perceive both as minnows now

      • It is a tough call though. India can spring back – anytime it is only the politics in the team that has been a spoilsport – otherwise we have a good bunch of cricketers.

      • I want these politicians to stay away from promising freebies as election manifesto. This way money can be used more productively. Have seen these freebies being sold in richie street often – laptops to fans et al.

      • Elections or not its a good move.. I ve come across 3 tasmac shops in a street with no medical shop in sight for emergency wth is wrong in this state…

      • not denying these tasmacs should be closed,but these things are arranged just because of Election only, if you go thro the history of t.n you will know the history of tasmac and all, not want to elobrate,

  99. i feel there is no wrong in trying yagnas or cloud seeding etc, all we need is water, for our use, lot of things our ancient people did with some hidden meaning, unfortunately they did not revealed the secrets behind every concepts, that dosen’t mean they are useless,

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    • If Yagnas wrong then all of us better to abond motor vehicles, which polluting (good for inducing cloud seeding) environment.

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    • Not going into Yaganas,

      But cloud seeding is a costly affair and here they can easily mint money. Better to avoid Cloud seeding

      Reply

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