Bay of Bengal hosts a July cyclone for the 1st time in 26 years

The Deep Depression (DD) off Bangladesh coast intensified into a Cyclonic Storm (CS) “Komen” and becomes the 1st cyclone to form in the last 26 years during July in the Bay of Bengal. The cyclone had made landfall over Bangladesh coast during the day, weakened further and will merge with the monsoon axis in the coming days. The system will bring heavy to very rainfall to West Bengal, Odisha and other eastern states. The Depression (D) over North West India has weakened into a Well Marked Low Pressure Area (WML) and is drenching the desert region of Rajasthan with heavy rainfall. The Western Disturbance (WD) meanwhile will continue to pound Kashmir, Himachal and North Indian states.

Tamil Nadu – The mini-break of two days for rains in North Tamil Nadu will come to an end. Intense Thunderstorms will form over interiors during the course of the day and will move towards the coastal areas by night.

02. India_Sat (1)

Chennai will witness rains associated with thunder and winds in the evening / night with temperature in the day settling around 36-37C.

Coimbatore will see a cloudy day with temperatures close to 32-33 C with chance of rain in the day.

Madurai will continue to have typical hot day with a maximum temperature around 38-39 C.

2,282 thoughts on “Bay of Bengal hosts a July cyclone for the 1st time in 26 years

  1. 26 years back July Cyclonic Storm (BOB 04) (July 22-25, 1989) can be the product dead neutral IOD just like present July Komen in 2015. Whenever there is probability of tropical disturbances in BOB, then one has to see the state of IOD.

    Dead neutral IOD can enhance the strength of a tropical disturbance to many folds (TS might work on its own to strengthen rapidly).

    Jamstec-1989-IOD
    1989 june (-0.537)
    1989 july (-0.087)
    1989 august (0.034)

    Komen-Cyclone (july, 2015) IOD:
    20150706,20150712,(0.27)
    20150713,20150719,(0.02)
    20150720,20150726,(-0.17)

  2. OMG….July Cyclonic Storm (BOB 04, july 22nd-25th, 1989) exhibited catastrophic losses in terms of property and life-loss along its entire track starting from AP till Pakistan.

    On July 22, the IMD began monitoring a depression over the Bay of Bengal. Tracking west-northwest, the system intensified into a cyclonic storm later that day before making landfall in Andhra Pradesh, just north of Vishakhapatnam. Once onshore the storm accelerated towards the northwest and weakened. By July 24, the remnants of the cyclone were located over the state of Maharashtra. The system was last noted the following day over Gujarat and moving into Pakistan.[14]

    Across Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, and Uttar Pradesh heavy rains produced by the storm triggered flash flooding and mudslides that killed at least 414 people.[15] According to Chief Minister Nandamuri Taraka Rama Rao, approximately 70,000 homes were destroyed in Andhra Pradesh. While over Maharashtra, the storm produced torrential rainfall, reaching 280 mm (11 in) in 24 hours in Bombay, which caused deadly flash flooding and mudslides.[16] Most of the railway tracks in metropolitan Bombay were left underwater, paralyzing the city and forcing businesses to close for several days. The city’s stock exchange remained open, though only sparse trading was observed.[17] Flood waters isolated 46 villages in the region, prompting the deployment of the Indian Army for rescue missions.[16] At least 500 people were killed throughout Maharashtra, more than 200 of which took place in the Raigad district.[18][19] An unknown number of people were killed after a bridge collapsed with two train carriages on it.[17] Additionally, 75 others were reported missing in the district according to local police.[18] Offshore, 500 fishermen went missing in connection to the storm and are believed to have died.[20]

    Flooding rains extended into Pakistan by July 26.[21] Flash floods in the slums outside Karachi killed at least 16 people and washed away 500 huts. An estimated 20,000 people were left homeless in the city. Communication and transportation throughout Karachi was reportedly paralyzed as well due to widespread power outages. Further north in Hyderabad, six others were killed by the storm.[22] Throughout the country, at least 31 people were killed.[23]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_North_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season

  3. Bloggers have started to join their favourite teams for the Games…Hurry up!

    Note : July 31 (11:59:59) Cutoff Time !!!

    The List Stands Like This As Of Now!
    Please Join to Kea Weather Blog’s AUG-SEP Games!!!

    (Updated List)

    Aug – Jon,Sel,GTS,Jupi,Novak,Arshad,Vignesh,Raghavendra,Atchu,Kea Weather(Ehsan),Tuboli,Parthasri – Rajakilpakkam,,Rajeshrd,Hrishi Palavakkam,chnrainlover-adamsaligramam,Yogesh,Gajendra Kumar T Nagar

    – 18 Bloggers

    Sep – guest11k,Susu,Sai_Vijayfan,bhaskaran19,Jeetu,PJ,Senthil prabhu,Vinod,Naresh Kumar,
    Chandra Mouli,Rsrao,Anand ECR,Bharath-Ponneri,Deepaak,Tornado Koushik,Sai Praneeth,Ameen Bijli
    Asad- Royapettah,Rajkmr – Choolaimedu,Siva@Chrompet,Sriram Rangarajan,Vijay Nagarajan,Paul Abraham,Aman- Madipakkam,Pradeep – Agaram,Sriram Balakrishnan,Keerthi Vasan,Kalai,Cat 5 Hurricane

    – 29 Bloggers

    Organizing Commitee

    ODM
    Novak

  4. Rare Blue Moon
    —————————-
    July 31st will be the SECOND full moon of the month…
    What is a blue moon?
    Whenever there are two full moons in a calendar month, the second one is called a “blue moon,” according to popular definition. The first full moon this month appeared on July 2, and a second one — the “blue” one — is happening Friday. While the moon will rise just before sunset Thursday, it wont be full until 6:43 a.m.
    Is the blue moon actually blue?
    Short answer: yes and no.

  5. OMG….Telangana region going into scanty category…Hyderabad will reach scanty category by sunday if it does not rain…..
    Rayalaseema and North interior karnataka are also very near to scanty category.Hard time for crop productivity for south india

    • No worries as AP & TS states will receive strong TS activity similar to chennai style once Komen started to move in land.

  6. Intense storms has formed Jst off coast of sap ntn during last 2 hours early morning outta nowhere..due to synoptic conditions persisting over n bay..

  7. Big blunder again!!! 2 different region of landfall by two different agencies.. seems the system had moved more NE before making the landfall in Chittagong as per jtwc.. IMD points Hatiya island as lf point wich means system had moved nearly north.. Difference may be of 150 to 250kms

  8. Rains to come back after a very short break of 2 days in that too we had isolated showers on 29th july.
    Today temp in Chennai is expected to be 35 – 36.
    North Tamilnadu might see rains today. Chennai will see intense TS through convecion which will come from west towards evening/night.

  9. Sky Met revised it’s monsoon forecast to 98%

    Taking cognizance of July rain, and the updated August and September forecast, we are revising the Monsoon forecast to 98% (normal) of the LPA from 102% issued in April (error margin of +/-4%). There is 63% chance of normal, 35% chance of below normal and 2% chance of drought. Cumulative rainfall for August and September is forecast at 92% and 112% (error margin of +/-9%) of their monthly LPA’s respectively.
    The major quantum of rainfall in August is likely to be received during the first fortnight. We expect a break between the 15th and 20th of August, a revival between the 20th and 24th of August and another small circulation at the end of the month. Peninsular India continues to be at risk. North Interior Karnataka, Marathwada and Rayalaseema will be the most vulnerable pockets in India. West Coast too is not likely to revive in a big manner, affecting Konkan region (Mumbai) and Kerala.
    The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is presently neutral and is on track to becoming positive in August. This is favorable for the Monsoon.
    MJO might not affect August rainfall adversely and might be favorable in September.

    http://www.skymetweather.com/content/weather-news-and-analysis/ceos-take-revised-forecast-for-monsoon-2015/

  10. The IMD expects good rainfall in the first 10 days of August, Data from the IMD showed that 23 out of the country’s 36 subdivisions received excess or normal rainfall this season, while some parts of south and east India got less rainfall. The weather office said 73 per cent of the country’s area received excess or normal rainfall this year.

    The weather office will issue its next update on the second half of the monsoon season by August 1-2, said Pai. head of long-range forecasting at the IMD.
    Read more at:
    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/48290043.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

    • i think even IMD also not up to its mark in both June, and July, it expected dry July, but things were different so far, hence i feel it is not at all fair to pin point just one forecaster, where every one is failing this elnino,

      • West will not catch up make up deficit here on for sure unless a miracle..the rainiest months r over

      • yeah,june-july is the primary peak season for w.coast.. august scores them according to the synoptic in bay

      • yes. but thus particular elnino working in different style as the rain-waves are moving very slowly and with strucked-pattern at same area for longer time than normal. So same thing may happen for those rain-deficit areas in second half of the season. so no need to worry 🙂

      • all agencies also forecasted same except NW-deficits. Models miserable failed in predicting abnormal performance of the SWM at NW-India. It looks Elnino-2015 working beyond imagination. so 2nd half anything may happen 🙂

  11. Historic Worst july rainfall in Telangana Rayalaseema and North interior karnataka.
    …probably these figures might be the least in past 100 years

    Medak district – 6 mm (normal 148 mm)
    Gulbarga – 9 mm (normal 139 mm)
    Mahaboobnagar – 15 mm (normal 127 mm)
    Hyderabad – 24 mm (normal 136 mm)
    kurnool – 34 mm (normal 116 mm)

  12. Massive damage to the crops due to heat and nil rainfall in most parts of kurnool Anantapur mahaboobnagar medak rangareddy nellore ongole bidar gulbaga karimnagar

      • Yes….AP needs minimum 2 strong cyclones…If they hit machili it would do better to Telangana also

      • Right now they need compensation…but they have a leader who is busy with “water” issues..not drinking or irrigation water..other types of “water”

      • If they announce compensation also…It would be 2017 by the time the compensation reach them…worst administration here

      • If YSR had been alive, this unholy mess would never have occurred..but what’s the point in dwelling on the past..future is so bleak..TS should learn from some of the Himalayan and North-Eastern states, excellent administration and infrastructure

      • That is exactly the people here are thinking…..
        We always got floods during YSR gov and mostly droughts during CBN gov..It may be by coincidence.

        Anyhow no perfect leader here..

    • cox bazaar was expected to top the list as per the 24hr forecast! anyway already they hav got big numbers from tis system

  13. Finally medak made it first to enter scanty…with almost nil rain in july.Soon mahaboobnagar kurnool nellore are going to enter scanty category…They are only 5 percent
    ahead.

  14. I am posting this again, it mainly applicable for north TN and South AP. Wecan expect decent NEM even if October fails.

    In some El-nino years, i find this amazing trend in Chennai rainfall. This is only postive analysis.

    1918 October got its least rainfall of 11 mm. But november got 1088 mm
    1896 October got 75 mm. But november got 832 mm
    1997 October got 235 mm. But november got 813 mm
    1976 October got 371 mm. But november got 807 mm
    1884 October got 382 mm. But november got 851 mm

  15. Unfortunate to see ker ktk doing real bad this time..similar case with rayalseema but its a drought prone area..
    .

    • ha..ha..i had seen in 2002, 2004 & 2009 July at Hyderabad (and most parts of the state) with nil rains. Its common. No need to worry

      • In these 3 years july rainfall crossed 30 mm…though it is also very low..
        But this year below 30 mm..only one day to enter into August

  16. Dry Lands

    Dry lands in Tamil Nadu are mostly confined to the rain shadow regions of Western Ghats. The dry lands could be found in Virudhunagar, Sivagangai, Thoothukudi and Ramnad Districts as they fall under this shadow region. In ramnad and tuticorin districts one could find vast tracks of exposed red soil spotted with palm trees and recently infested prosophis sp.; a typical land form of this category looks like the landform found in the photograph.

    This photograph was taken at ‘Theri’ near ‘Panchalankurichi’ of Thoothukudi district.

    • You also forgot the dry lands of Tirunelveli district, and the pattis and thottis of Theni which are mostly in the rain shadow region..Perambalur is dry as a bone, Tiruchi..too many to list

  17. Cloudy and Pleasant Morning due to the outer bands of TS touching land which is located over NE of Chennai

  18. Hi plz add me to the August team… I was there in chennai for 5 years.. I witnessed August is the rainiest month in swm.. One of the biggest storm I witnessed is August 21 2011.. When chennai nunga received 16cm … It was a rocking night.. Ts was following up like fire…

  19. Sai,
    Keerthi Vasan in Aug or Sep..i think he told Aug..can u chk again?
    Kea,
    Do u really want to be only in Org team???

  20. Today Will TS form. Temp is so low. But the Temp and clouds now dont show the truth.

    The Temp in Interiors may be high. But high clouds seen there too
    NET is failure. Does the cloud indicate any rain. No.

    Today’s rain will prove that NET cant be applied all times. Surface Temp nor Surface Temp in city / interior does not matter.

  21. PJ,

    Normally if we buy a weather station, wont they give those mounting rods without additional costs.

    For example i have seen some other brands also, they have provided the weather monitors and other instruments and they have not said anything about that mounting rods, that means do we need to buy those rods for ourselves, i am confused?

  22. Partha Sir, the option for you would be to go for an Oregon Scientific WS or an Ambient Weather one. Davis will be too expensive and you have to purchase a tripod separately. You also have to separately buy the Davis PC software which is also expensive

  23. Bloggers considering Weather Station with RG’s can consider this one. You wont find a better package anywhere. Okay it is not a Davis or an Oregon. But it is a weather station that works.
    Total cost is $145 which translates to approx. Rs. 9,000.
    Shipping is free. Delivery normally takes anywhere between 15 and 45 days.

  24. Hi plz add me to the August team… I was there in chennai for 5 years.. I witnessed August is the rainiest month in swm.. One of the biggest storm I witnessed is August 21 2011.. When chennai nunga received 16cm … It was a rocking night.. Ts was following up like bubble…

  25. August Team Guys,

    Since this is ELNINO year i am with August, otherwise i would have been with September.

    September might less number of rainy days than August, but in September even one day rain can pour greater than 10 CM.

    I still remember 2013 September 10th night, i was taking my son from hospital for the first time to Urapakkam house, that night we had around 15 CM rainfall.

    • so u chose august bcos of tis year’s forecast? btw forecast is poised well and good for august!! inactive phase of monsoon-> trough maybe axed twrds north of its actual position-> so peninsula may score good

      • Not as of now, but a super typhoon is expected to develop in WP.. That could have an effect on MJO circulation I guess

      • exactly based on the dynamics present this year and forecasted.
        i am sure that second half of august going to get battered over Tamilnadu.

        Also september team has to be aware that there is a chance of emerging Positive IOD this month, if so then September rainfall will be affected.

  26. Ny idea when the rains will stop in Rajasthan and Gujarat.. My native flooded.. with JSM to Jodhpur highway blocked

  27. Incase anyone missed out last night’s post, PJ will tally the rainfall data of all the IMD and AGRO stations nearby and I will help if needed. I’m also keeping track of all official stations’ rainfall and have been doing that since July 1st.

    In addition, I will also try to maintain the rainfall data of unofficial rain gauges owned by Kea Bloggers. Both the official rain gauge data and the unofficial rain gauge data will be shared on google docs.

      • Yes. You missed the post last night. I’ve already been maintaining data since July 1st, I’ll create another spreadsheet for unofficial blogger RGs and share it. PJ said he would maintain IMD and AGRO stations and share those as well

  28. Very good heating in all parts of Tamil Nadu except Chennai and Tiruvallur district. But favourable conditions like today’s would witness thunderstorm formation near Tirupati hills too.

  29. I hope everyone remembers September 2nd half action after flop show in the first half last year.. After September 20th 2014, atleast 1 place recorded 10 cm each day till September end and IMD even declared SWM “vigorous” over Tamil Nadu which is a very very rare event.. But sadly winds were from NE during that phase. If something like that happens with winds from land to sea, Chennai will get smashed like it got hit in 2011, 2012 and 2013.

    • yes as of august and sep …tn cant be full rains shadow region for swm….monsoon axis ll dip to tn and ap

  30. Hi please add me to september team.
    i have taken the decision after i saw a nit full of rains on september 11th 2013.
    It was a nit to remember when both nunga and meena received 8cm.i have not seen sep rains like that.
    i hope this year too we get gud rains in september.

  31. This is for information only
    August
    2014-222 mm
    2013-196mm
    2012-90mm
    2011-366mm
    2010-233mm
    September
    2014-134mm
    2013-241mm
    2012-213mm
    2011-286 mm
    2010-120mm

  32. I posted this yesterday, but many of you missed it. Hence I’m posting it again.


    Here are the average rainfall stats for August and September last 15 years. Shockingly, Nungambakkam and Chennai AP are pretty even whereas Chennai AP has been wetter historically in SWM.

    There is one CLEAR winner.

    Chennai Nungambakkam last 15 years average rainfall.
    ————
    August : 138.9 mm
    September : 162.6 mm

    Chennai Meenambakkam Airport
    ————
    August : 139.8 mm
    September : 159.2 mm

    September has been having the upper hand since 2000.

  33. The cyclonic storm ‘KOMEN’ over northeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards, weaken into a Deep
    depression and lay centred at 0530 hours IST of today, the 31st July, 2015 over Bangladesh near Lat. 23.1°N and
    Long. 90.0 °E about 85 km eastsoutheast
    of Jessore (Bangladesh). It would move westnorthwestwards
    and
    weaken in a depression during next 24 hours.

  34. Kohli doomed –
    கிரிக்கெட் வீரர்களின் மனைவி, காதலிகளுக்கு இலங்கை டூரில் அனுமதி மறுப்பு!(BCCI refuses to allow cricketers wife and their girl friends tour to Sri Lanka

    • Earlier it used to be like this- Anushka waves from the balcony..come soon hun, remember our movie date..Kohli says ok ok 5 mins..goes to bat, promptly gets out, breaks his bat and the umpire’s nose..hits the bowler..blames the match officials..and walks back and disappears with Anushka..Her name reminds me of Kuskha which I used to eat in college!! That reminds me..need to eat!

    • Couldn’t agree with you more. I am also hoping minimum temp will be 35’c hahaha..then max will be what 50’c?

    • Lol IMD fails on most occasions..someone should make a list of all existing IMD sites, of course created by wasting tax payers’ hard-earned money..

      • IMD has been much more accurate this SWM though. Skymet is full of vetti bandha with 0 performance.

      • Every city and district does not need it’s own website. 1 website each for East (cover NE too), West, N, and S, and one for the Himalayas (which has it’s own peculiarities) will suffice.

      • Well yes the high number of websites makes the update very very slow, but it is necessary due to the size of the country. The USA might be big, but data for each and every station isn’t available from the late 19th century here which is why IMD is special. But yes they can improve a lot

      • One bad ass website with all the info vs 10 clumsy websites with all the info, I am sure Indians design many websites worldwide, definitely we have the brains to revamp, but laaazzzyyyyy!!

  35. Cyclone ‘Komen’ weakens into deep depression
    ========================================
    After weakening into deep depression, the system moved West-Northwestwards and lay centred over Bangladesh, about 360 km north east of Balasore. It would further move West-Northwestwards and weaken into a depression in the next 24 hours, it said.

    Under its impact, rain and thundershower would occur in most places in Odisha. Heavy to very heavy rainfall in some places with isolated extremely heavy rainfall would occur in northern part of the state and heavy rainfall at one or two places in southern part in the next 24 hours.

    http://www.deccanchronicle.com/150731/nation-current-affairs/article/cyclone-komen-weakens-deep-depression

  36. Ppl r forgetting tat it is very tricky to predict accurately all the time particulaly in a tropical country like India…

      • Rome wasn’t built in a day…. We have observed some changes in last few months in IMD’s attitude.

  37. Flash News,

    July rainfall across the country is 15% below normal.
    July rainfall as forecasted from 01st to 29th July was 15% below normal.

    The highest contributor was South India with -46%. The rainfall giants of West Coast not revived entire month. Many agencies were believed the MJO in the second half of July, but i was saying from the beginning that MJO will never going to help July rainfall this time.

    The link from IMD below and my prediction made on 29th June 2015.

    The only deviation from my prediction is NW and South India.
    NW has reported 5% excess and South Deficit.

    http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/Monsoon_frame.htm

    This forecast gave by me on 29th June 2015 for July month

    Rainfall During July 2015
    Keeping in mind that ELNINO peaking this month, hence mostly UAC’s likely than LOW’s. There
    might be lots of Upper to Mid Air Disturbances, this will benefit SE Coast of India and bring
    lesser rainfall over the main regions of SWM impacting.

    NW and Extreme North India likely to get below normal rainfall in July.
    East India likely to get Near Normal Rainfall.
    NE India Normal rainfall expected.
    Central India likely to get Normal Rainfall.
    South India Excess Rainfall.
    West Coast to get Below Normal to Normal Rainfall.

    Overall this July likely to be Below Normal all over India.
    1. July first week NE, South and West Coast will get good rainfall.
    2. The peaking of the season likely in the Mid of July from 13th to 20th.

    From July 14th South India will get good numbers and West Coast will get the same
    pattern from 17th or 18th July, will continue till 21st. TN will get good rainfall during first week and
    mid of July. Tamil Nadu overall likely to get above normal rainfall during this month.

    Note – The above forecast is based on IOD stays neutral, if it becomes Positive all the above
    forecast might change vice versa.

  38. Moderate rains are back in the west coast as forecast earlier. Rainfall ending 8:30 am on July 31st.
    ————————-
    Trasi – 92
    Halkod – 81
    Haleyangady – 66
    Kanakumbi – 50
    Kere – 48
    Nemmar – 48
    Agumbe – 47
    Mangalore Pananmbur – 40
    Sanguem – 38
    Honavar – 27
    Valpoi – 27

  39. Burma Rainfall

    The noteworthy amounts of rainfall recorded were Maungdaw (9.53)inches,
    Kyaukpyu (8.98)inches, Paletwa (7.56)inches, Kyauktaw (6.77)inches,
    Hakha (6.65)inches, Ann (5.90)inches, Myauk U and Myaungmya (5.43)inches
    each, Thandwe (5.23)inches, Mindat (4.92)inches, Taungkok (4.65)inches
    and Hlegu (4.29)inches.

    http://www.dmh.gov.mm/myanmar-daily-weather-report-100

  40. So much of rain has fallen just 50-100 km west of Kolkata, probably accumulating to 200 mm while the city has missed out a major portion of it.. If Chennai was in Kolkata’s place, Komen would’ve faced many insults and bad words. It looks like Kolkata’s cyclone Jal.

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