Indian Monsoon Belt under Heavy Monsoon Clouds

South West Monsoon continues to affect daily life routines across eastern and western parts of the country. Two Monsoon systems are spinning across the mentioned regions bringing in torrential rains. Gujarat and West Rajasthan have bore the brunt of the monsoon mayhem. Many places have recorded more than 200 mm rainfall. With conditions forecasted to remain same, extremely heavy falls are likely to occur over Gujarat, heavy to very heavy rains to occur in areas of Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Rajasthan. Due to the intensifying Depression in North East Bay, and a present Deep Depression near Rajasthan, squally winds reaching 45-55 kmph is likely along and off West Bengal, Odisha, Gujarat and North Konkan coasts. Fishermen in these areas are warned not to venture out into seas. West Coast will come under the influence of an off-shore trough that will bring heavy rains along Coastal Karnataka and Kerala. Meanwhile, TN will see a decrease in rainfall activity for a short period.
02. Meteosat5
Chennai to experience a partly cloudy sky with maximum temperature close to 36-37 C, A warm day and a chance of isolated rains/Thunderstorm later in the day/night.

Coimbatore – A pleasant breezy day to begin with, warm afternoon with a max temperature of 32C. Isolated showers over some pockets of the city/suburbs.

Madurai – Hot and uncomfortable during the day with max temperature peaking at 37-38 C. Chances of Thunderstorm activity in the evening/night.

1,014 thoughts on “Indian Monsoon Belt under Heavy Monsoon Clouds

  1. We need more stalled systems like these in the north bay for everyday rains when there is a good monsoonal flow!

  2. Rainfall till 6.30am Today in (mm)

    Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram Dists

    Cheyyur – 34
    Chithamur – 28
    Minjur – 26
    Acharapakkam – 23
    Puzhal – 22
    Tirutani Agro – 22
    Kadambathur – 16
    Chembarambakkam – 12
    Kolapakkam – 11

    Other Dists

    Viruthachalam – 67
    Perambalur – 48
    Mangalur (Cuddalore) – 37
    Kallakurichi – 33
    Nemili (Vellore) – 23
    Kammapuram (Cuddalore) – 20
    Devakottai – 15
    Thellar (Tiruvannamalai) – 12
    Tirumayam – 13

  3. Yesterday there is no High Moisture Content but it was a Massive Deluge with Devastating Winds in North Chennai with 70 – 80% of Moisture around 7pm.

      • It was a Very Heavy winds reaching 70 – 80km/hr and Rain Rate around 250 – 300mm/hr. Such a Very Intense Spell as like one in 26th July Night. Looked like a Mini Cyclone.
        RG Flying away even with Bricks Support It can’t stand still and Banner Are Flying in to the Corner buses Stopped and Many Flower Pots have been brokened in to Pieces in Terrace. Wat a Devastating one

      • Could be 30 – 40mm RG has flown away and Rolling around Terrace. Couldn’t able to Record Rains

      • Yeah, I was seeing them from my windows ….sheets flying near Rakki theatre into the roads..everything was flying in the air…with heaving winds ….heavy pouring rain…..

      • During that time i was in Ambattur-Pudhur Sri Krishna sweets and witnessed windy rain and Glass panel of Sri Krishna got broken and hoardings flew away.

  4. Good morning…Previously located tropical disturbance near 22.5N 90.1E is now moved to 22.1N 90.1E approx 140 km south-south west of Chittagong, Bangladesh.Chance for converting into a cyclonic storm is HIGH.

    It’s expected to track further south -south west with mean sea level pressure of 994mb.

    North and many areas of Chennai recorded 3+cm rain last night.Isolated places of South chennai received heavy rain.

    In general, Chennai received more than average rainfall for July month.

    Further medium to rather heavy rain would occur in many of parts of Chennai city after 5.30 pm today.Convection would form and come from west of Chennai.

  5. OMG…it looks most of our friends becoming excellent meteorologists day by day. Its great progress with drastic change in our blog when compared to last year. Its tremendous progress in our blog that happened in due course. Interesting point is that all predictions coming true.

      • Oh..no…how?? Just I initiated very strong debate for everyone to think Chennai-rainfall incidence beyond “veppa salanai” concept (I think no need to focus on VS-terminology specially as that mechanism is ultimate and stays everywhere). This might be the starting point fro all to think well beyond “VS-concept”. So once we start thinking beyond very additional basic concept VS, then slowly VS-rainfall-causing mechanisms can be understood very easily. But we still need to go long away to become masters πŸ™‚

    • how this can be look like in NEM-2015?? I think whole NEM-2015 season will be completely cloudy with incessant trains πŸ™‚

  6. Flash..it looks rainfall will decrease over Gujarat/Rajasthan many folds as the stationary Depression is in rapid weakening mode.

    Most of the convection/related moisture (after the recent cloud burst) spilling into sub-tropics by the divergence mechanism aided by strong sub-tropical Jetstream pattern.

  7. wow. Cumulative SWM-index increased by 1% since last update and stays at -3% below normal (for both june & july till today).

      • Yes Govt has declared as public paid holiday for everyone-school, colleges, govt offices and private offices

      • The notification is from the State Govt and not national holiday, Only TN Govt declared holiday for all establishments

      • unless issued under Negotiable Instrument Act private firms giving leave will be according to companies

      • The notification I have posted clearly mentions that “Under Negotiable Instrument Act” which I have highlighted. However there are companies might declare holiday and then will ask their employees to compensate by working on Saturday.

      • sorry, i haven’t able to see the above notification in the first instant itself, after refreshing only i’m able to read that.

      • Yes even non-govt offices will have to close down (like in an election day) Tomorrow even shops will be closed as per Traders Association

  8. Flash…alarming alert…Tropical storm formation is very rare phenomenon in SWM-season especially in peak monsoon months like July & August (excluding June & September). Unfortunately Invest 98B strengthened to tropical storm 02B. The main culprit favorable mechanism for this intensification is “Elnino coupled with dead-neutral IOD (not to forget still MJO lingering at western hemisphere)”

    So we all need to pray IOD to turn +ve as soon as possible for better NEM-2015 season with less active BOB-cyclonic pulses in coming NEM months.

    • Partha,
      MJO-statistical model is very accurate one. If someone getting confused with GFS, ECMWF, BOM or any forecasts, then he can immediately look into MJOs-statistical model (very accurate, but sometimes Its updated little late).

      • if MJO enters phase 3, then why coastal AP not receiving a single drop of rains? why BOB-system taking shape at head BOB instead of west-central BOB. So MJO not entered phase 3.

      • MJO may help any System’s intensification either in Arabian /BOB indirectly (without doing any direct genesis) by providing upper-level support (might be increasing divergence?)

      • this OLR diagram shows clearly that MJO not entered at phase 3. if it enters at phase 3 then BOB-D might have occurred at WC and adjoing NW-BOB instead of head/NE BOB

      • MJO may help any System’s intensification either in Arabian /BOB indirectly (without doing any direct genesis) by providing upper-level support (might be increasing divergence?).

  9. Thunder Storm Alert:
    Moderate to Heavy Thunder Storm possible over Chennai and Surroundings today as well for the 10th Consecutive day and there is a possibility of Squall winds at some places during Rains.
    Few Dists of North Tamilnadu and South interiors might gets Thunder Showers as well.

    Temperature in Chennai is Expected to be Around 36.5Β°C.

  10. Tis july MISO activity was bit faster than last month activity… few experts coinciding tis action to be same as in weak & deficit years

  11. Thanks to heavy rains the rain-deficit for the country as a whole as on date has narrowed down to four per cent as per IMD.

  12. Nature always exhibits its own calculation away from human’s thinking. I expected 2005-july type deluge for Mumbai from this “twin-combination”. But Mumbai missed it by whisker. Ultimately Gujarat/Rajasthan claimed all the rains just like in 2010-August style.

    Still Mumbai-rain alert in 2005 style not yet over as still crucial rainy days ahead for this region. But overall t seems crucial timing missed for Mumbai due to nature’s balancing act.

  13. Still SWM-2015 game not yet over. It looks SWM-2015 dynamics exhibiting with little different style in regular normal rains just in the order of 1997 (but slight deviation). Expecting there won’t be any big-break in august month after this latest july MISO.

  14. A Central Water Commission update said that live storage in the country’s reservoirs is 115 per cent of the last year’s storage and 108 per cent of the normal.

    source: Businessline

  15. Today is expected to be a break for most parts of TN with very isolated storms. However the break isn’t going to be for long. Rains will return by July 31st/August 1st along with a very very heavy and much needed spell for west coast. More on this soon with explanation

  16. School anniversary.. So holiday till Friday :p I have to go and watch the programme today though

  17. this year monsoon so far defies all forecasts to some extent, i hope Aug and Sep will also b the same, and India get good monsoon.

  18. Just to clarify..this thing is what we call as rain band… not the discontinuous one near TN. system is influencing our conditions,no disagreeing with tat,but there is no direct impact here from the rainband of the system

  19. yesterday evening thundershowers skipped heart of chennai. always KEA & IMD sites missing this. only part of south & north chennai received one centimeter of rain and central chennai nothing. huge winds blown away clouds. let us see today.

    ss

    • we already have received twice the normal rainfall of July. Asking for me is being greedy. Who would have thought we could achieve this after 16 days we had only 38 mm.

  20. Chennai Nungambakkam received 93% of current annual rainfall in july itself…Proper Swm ts unlike unseasonal rains

  21. Annual Rainfall in just 2 days in Gujarat. Deep Depression pounding again.
    ==========================
    Dhaneera gets 302 mm today yesterday it got 435 mm. Total 737 mm in 48 hrs. Its annual rainfall is just 528 mm

    Deesa gets 410 mm today yesterday it got 303 mm. Total 713 mm in 48 hrs. Its annual rainfall is just 599 mm

  22. i think no chances of widespread/scaterred rain for chennai today. moisture levels have consideraly dipped. few parts of chennai could get some rains

  23. virudachalam
    Tozhudur
    8 each
    Perambalur
    6
    Tirupuvanam
    5
    Cheyyar
    4
    Cheyyur , Kovilankulam , Kallakurichi arg , Kallakurichi , Srimushnam , Polur , Mettupatti , Tiruvadanai
    3 each

    panruti neyveli not featured in report 😦

  24. Here is why rainfall is going to increase by August start/July end. Currently, the intensification of the BOB system into one of minimal tropical storm strength has pulled away lots of moisture from the peninsula into the system. There is also a lower level high pressure over Maldives which is pumping dry air into Kerala and coastal Karnataka which is subsequently reaching us and affecting our rains.

    0B2 is likely to track N or NNE slowly for next 24/36 hours before making a westward turn and weakening due to interaction with mountains. This will reduce the pull of the system. However, the westward movement is likely to re-activate the off-shore trough and this coupled with the weakening of the high-pressure area will lead to very heavy rains over parts of Konkan and Goa coast and coastal Karnataka. This moisture will seep in to Tamil Nadu and will trigger thunderstorms in the evening.

    In brief :-

    1) Moderate rains to return to coastal Karnataka and Goa from 31st morning onwards, getting heavier gradually with amounts of 100-120 mm accumulating at coastal areas by August 1st 8:30 am with even heavier falls in the ghats.

    2) The weakening of the BOB system over Bangladesh/WB will result in the strengthening of the peninsular thermal trough.. With ample supply of moisture and good heating, thundershowers are likely to resume from 31st July/1st August.

    • This is what i was saying for the past 2 days, yes rains for sure due to this system movement towards west, this will push the trough to lower latitudes, this will trigger some TS from 31st to 04th August.

      These rains uniqueness is, this will occur during midnight for the first 2-3 days, then last 2 days might be in the evening. I am not saying everyday rain, but the pattern in first 3 and last 2 days.

    • @sudharshan Nice technical explanation susa…Keep up the best…But Still I Have Hope On Today’s rainfall

  25. 3rd day of cyclonic winds associated with rains lash Chennai, suburbs and outskirts ending 8.30 am on 29.07.2015
    =================================
    Nonstop daily rains continue in Chennai for 9th day.

    in mm

    Redhills Lake – 22
    Puzhal – 22
    Ambattur – 16
    Chennai AP – 14
    Cholavaram Lake – 13
    Chembarabakkam – 12
    Kolapakkam (behind chennai AP) – 11
    Avadi – 9
    Poonamalle Agro – 8
    Uthiramerur – 8
    Tamaraipakkam – 7
    Thiruporur (near Kelambakkam) – 6
    Nemili (Near Takolam) – 5

  26. Today i am going with Pj sir in ts forecast, as today it’s nice sunny day with low level clouds moving in from West so definite rain possible

  27. Moisture at 700 HPA may be low now but it peaking to 95-98% post 5PM. So there is no reason why we can’t expect TS today.. Lets hope for the best

    • Both KCR and CBN are like poles of a magnet…….They wont compromise anywhere…This time they also brought worst drought..AP CM says AP is rocking with drought and Telangana CM states that Telangana is more rocking with drought….

  28. This has been the situation of Karnataka…Very scanty rains everywhere in NIK.Hope NIK and Interior Karnataka get good rains so that it will help AP also

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