Strengthening Systems Coaxing the Monsoon to flare up over East India

keaweather 2015, KEA Blog, SWM-2015

Yesterday’s depression over Bangladesh has remained stationary and is expected to move slowly westwards in the next few days skirting the coast of West Bengal. This system will intensify into a deep depression once it comes into contact with the warm waters of North Bay of Bengal, along with other favorable environmental conditions in support of this development. As a result of the intensification process, torrential rains along with strong winds is expected for East Indian states. Sea will be rough for coastal West Bengal and Odisha. There is also another system over Rajasthan which will strengthen into a depression and produce drenching rains for Gujarat and parts of Maharashtra.
Parts of coastal TN and interiors will see scattered thunderstorm activity, while rest of places will remain dry.
02. Meteosat528
Chennai’s maximum temperature will be around 36 C. Isolated storms could occur during evening/night. Surface winds will be strong at the time of thunderstorm.

Coimbatore will see max temperature between 33-34 C. Possibility of light showers during evening/night.

Madurai will continue to see a hot day with temperature soaring to 38-39 C. High temperature would trigger thunderstorms in some areas during evening/night. This trend in temperature will continue for a few more days.

1,753 thoughts on “Strengthening Systems Coaxing the Monsoon to flare up over East India”

  5. Flash…IOD alarming alert…at present IOD turned dead neutral to slight -ve. For the first 2 months IOD stayed at dead neutral despite +IOD forecasts by international agencies. So IOD is stubborn to become +ve as per agencies’ wish/prediction. If the same trend in IOD continues in coming months too especially in NEM season, then post-monsoon season will become very active in terms of more number of tropical cyclones.

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  7. Only the mid level is looking good tonight, nothing much below!
    Today might be a break day for Chennai.

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      • It did play spoil sport to the window pane. I had just opened it without locking with that hook. Within minutes the glass was shattered. Fierce winds.

  9. Previously located tropical disturbance near 22.3N 90.6E is now moved to 22.5N 90.1E approx 170 km west of Chittagong, Bangladesh. It’s expected to track further west with mean sea level pressure of 997mb.

    North and many areas of Chennai recorded 5+cm rain last night while south chennai received trace to light rain.

    Further medium to rather heavy rain would occur in many of parts of Chennai city after 5 pm today.Convection would form and come from west of Chennai.

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    • For 9th Day in a Row Rains are very much Possible. Chennai Weather Turned in a Very Different Manner. As we are Waiting for Rains from June this July Second Half has been Really Good and Unexpected Rainy Days in a Routine Manner. Good For Water Table.

      Reply

  10. Very clear indications are coming out from both IMD & Skymet that cumulative SWM-2015 index to end in normal for 1st two months (june & july). Has anyone expected this normal trend in SWM for the 1st half of the season “except Rao (selfiee :)”?? This is clear cut morale boost for Rao’s prediction of normal SWM-2015 prediction.

    Note:
    2015 is inching towards super Elnino like 1997 but still IOD stayed at neutral for 1st 2 months unlike 1997’s +ve IOD.

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  11. Cumulonimbus to the Distant East of Chennai Very Early in the Morning. Looks Like Easterlies.

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  12. Is Kerala becoming like chennai during NEM?
    No major rains in kerala this SWM I guess except a week or so.

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  13. Wow!
    The storm which crossed pondi-cdl yesterday night is still lingering out in sea with good intensity!

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  16. Today North Tamilnadu will get Good Rains. Good Rain Possibility From Chennai to Nagapattinam all Over North Coastal Tamilnadu. Today only Mid Level is Good with High Levels of Moisture. Marakkanam to Nagapattinam will get Very Good Rains.
    Chennai Temperature Is Expected to be around 36

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  18. What happened to positive iod?? Will it emerge or not??? Why this much delay happening? ….

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  20. Tamilnadu Rainfall till 7.30am Today in (mm)

    Tirukoyilur (Villupuram) – 72
    Kadambathur (Tiruvallur) – 45
    Virudhachalam AGRO (Cuddalore) – 35
    Komaratchi (Cuddalore) – 32
    Madukkur (Tanjore) – 27
    Puzhal (Tiruvallur) – 26
    Tiruchuli (Viruthunagar) – 25
    Mailam (Villupuram) – 24
    Chennai Nungambakkam – 22
    Cuddalore – 20
    Puduchatram (Namakkal) – 20
    Kollidam (Nagai) – 18
    Kallakurichi (Villupuram) – 17
    HVF Avadi (Tiruvallur) – 15
    Muthupettai (Tiruvarur) – 15
    Sethubavachatram (Tanjore) – 15
    Karambakkudi (Pudukkotaai) – 14
    Kunnantharkoil (Pudukkottai) – 13
    Tirupathur (Sivaganga) – 12
    Kunnathur (Kanchipuram) -11
    Viralimalai (Pudukkottai) – 10

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  21. System is stationary in north bay with consistent deep convection along with decent conv/div!!
    NOTE: divergence happens at upper level ,divergence is aided by upper level easterlies and other nearby large scale divergent flows .. MSL trough happens at lower most level.. so its completely different ,divergence as no relation with surface mean sea level trough

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  24. ha..ha..system is deepening means the ripple-effect in MSLP lines will spread to all levels depending on the system’s intensification. At present BOB-system is at Depression stage. so we can see the dip in trough/its ripple effect at least till mid-level. so ultimately convergence and divergence mechanism gets effected 🙂

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    • we need to note that all levels are closely packed without any boundaries. for our convenience of unerstanding we differentiated as surface-level, MSLP, mid-levl, upper-level, QBO-level etc,..lol..

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  25. With yesterday’s 28mm Nunga’s annual rainfall turned excess for the year at 249mm. Normal till july 31 is 236 mm

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  26. Yesterday Thunder Storm Pics. Look at the Clouds Floating Around Tirutani & Nagalapuram (ap) continuous Hill Ranges which is Visible from ambattur.

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  30. No words to say anyting, its pure historic july we are seeing. Today just will be repeat of yesterday with Massive intense TS forming in Vellore – Thiruvannamalai belt.

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  31. we were worried of dry air incursion in past NEM years lpa/depression’s but even the phoenix 1999 orissa supercyclone had came across dry air intruding at one point of time!!!

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    • Most severe cyclones crossing 15 N in NEM period face it , but it overcomes it with ease….SIDR an other example

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      • It was shaping it selves in such a way such that it looked like it avoided dry air close by with its dominant vortex

  33. Conditions Very Much Perfect for Thunder Storm. Clear Sky with Stratiform Clouds Around Chennai.
    Watchout for Intense TS Popups around Late Noon

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    • Entire Tamilnadu?
      Only North and Central Tamilnadu gets Good Rains and Some Places in South which is Adjacent to North will get some Rains.

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      • yes.. the dry areas will be dead south TN, especially Tuticorin dt. other districts will get rainfall.

      • Tuticorin, Tirunelveli, Viruthunagar and Even Kumari is dry now.

      • Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram dists is the wettest in this july in TN considering Rainfall and Rainy Days

      • South Tamilnadu Usually had good daily TS during Kathiri and we Experienced the Real show of Kathiri now the Daily TS shifts to us and South Tamilnadu enjoying the Real Show of Kathiri. Madurai , Trichy, Palayamkottai might record 38 – 40 Today as well.

      • only north and maybe central Chennai is rocking, not south Chennai. This is a desert for now

      • We are depending on tankers for daily needs, you know. You are telling me it is nature’s balancing act. Only when it rains we get water in our tank and that is due to rain water harvesting.

      • yes April TS you got 100 mm We Got Only 2.8 mm even we are having the same problems don’t worry you will get rain soon!

      • Now a days we seem to get only drizzles, that’s what made me write like this.
        As you say, I also hope for something better.

      • yes something big is waiting for you!
        Intense TS month has not yet started

      • Most of areas in suburbs are left out and it only drizzles there. Another day, new hope…..

      • They will get Some Rains when South kerala receives now its dry some places gets Drizzles to below 10mm

  35. Rains will take rest on Wednesday and Thursday. From Friday onwards rain will be active again. Today chance is there before evening.

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  38. which Indian ocean dipole will be favor for Indian sub continent? positive/negative/neutral?
    is this dipoles anyways related to el nino / la nina?

    i read this things having severe effects to Australian climates.
    how much i would influence to indian and asian climates?

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    • for strong elnino +IOD is good for NEM and SWM
      for a La nina modoki neutral IOD will be good

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      • He has said it as comparatively , relatively lower than El nino regime , above 26 C is sufficient .., with shear lower in La Nina , it has other supportive conditions as well

      • good question..cool in the sense below elnino or climatological standard, not below the threshold values needed for cyclogenesis.. there r many other parameters like sst, control cyclogenesis..though it is one of the important parameter,not the only parameter

      • apadina, can we attribute that lanina enhance or pave the way for postive iod?
        similarly ensa for negative iod?

      • lanina coupling with positive iod is a very rare thing.. generally lanina forces negative iod conditions!!

  39. Today i think it’s break day for chennai interms of rain, let’s see anyhow cgl to marakanam stretch and vellore ts tvm stretch will definitely have some rain

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  44. 155.4 mm so far from the day the wireless RG was installed here. Anna Nagar West ,16th Main Road.
    possibly can add some 20 mm or so to the existing tally prior to the installation for this months figure.

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  49. Saurashtra region has received over 54 per cent of its season’s rainfall so far. According to Gujarat State Disaster Management Authority (GSDMA) rain report, Junagadh district received maximum rainfall as Junagadh received 225mm rains in last 36 hours.In last 36 hours, Amreli received 100mm followed by Bagasara (110mm) and Lathi (90mm). Amreli has so far received 85 per cent of its average annual rainfall.
    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/rajkot/Saurashtra-receives-54-per-cent-seasons-rainfall/articleshow/48242368.cms

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  52. OMG!
    Nunga – 22 mm
    Meena – 1 mm

    Nungambakkam Back To Winning Ways!
    OMG! Meena Should Catch up!

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  53. what is making tis july one of the best in terms of Rainfall history ? Is tis normal or it is related to heat wave v had during the first half of the month?

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      • good point! we shld stress more for no. 2 as no 1 is not a rare thing, being the rainiest month for the country

      • Ap,North interior karnataka, rayalaseema, telangana, South tamilnadu missed july rains badly

      • I read that article wrote by Mr Krishnamurthy, but i still feel that the Negative SST anomaly over WP since second week of July has made the rainfall to success across the country.

        Neutral IOD has saved Chennai, this has paved way for ER Wave to strengthen, this has bought unstable condition at mid level, this wave was bringing excellent precipitation almost every day since 19th July.

        I feel these are the 2 factors saved the entire country in July even though we have ELNINO.

      • Thanks for going thru that!! the study was carried out by considering 30 years of swm by relating lot of imp parameters to find out lead/lag relationship..

      • that is too much for me, i don’t understand lead/lag terms, but otherwise i could understand something from that.

        the point they were saying is, during ELNINO years, the Positive or Warm anomaly over WP and Eastern IO will bring successful rainfall, but what i think is the Negative SST over WP brings more rains.

  54. “We must have polarimetric radar and Doppler radar in critical areas such as Uttarakhand as they will help forecast heavy rainfall. Need to have sophisticated radars in critical areas” – Dr. APJ Abdul Kalam at CEMAST in Mumbai, 2013

    Dear Kea,
    Can we have this quote featured for whole day today as a mark of respect from Kea blog to the Missile Man and one of the greatest Teachers India has ever produced? Thanks in advance.

    Reply

  60. Historic July rains for Chennai City in last 200 years
    =============================
    What is more interesting in 2015 is first 10 days in the city was historic heatwave since 1700 BC.

    Here is the top July rainfall for Chennai in last 200 years. With 3 more days to go, it will climb up in the rankings.

    1818 – 298.5 mm
    2001 – 269.8 mm
    2007 – 243.9 mm
    1846 – 231.6 mm
    1954 – 228.9 mm
    1871 – 225.6 mm
    1915 – 225.3 mm
    1961 – 223.1 mm
    1981 – 210.4 mm
    1975 – 204.9 mm

    2015 – 204.8 mm

    1859 – 204.2 mm
    1852 – 203.2 mm
    1921 – 201.7 mm

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  63. Alert for Chennai and NTN from 31st July night.

    TS likely from 31st night to 04th August. This might bring rainfall on a daily basis from 31st to 04th. This unique point about this rainfall is, it will bring rains in the night or overnight to early morning time from 31st to 02nd.

    03rd and 04th August we will get rainfall in the afternoon or evening itself.

    This period of rainfall is due to the DD over North Bay will start to move in westerly direction from 1st August onwards, the trough from this system is likely to extend till NTN. This will bring us precipitation.

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  64. South AP following South TN in terms of temperature
    Nellore-39.5C
    ongole-38.5C
    tirupathi-38.5C
    machillipatnam- 38C
    some models expecting 40C for next few days

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      • Cloudy, rainy, or rainy and cloudy..miserable climate responsible for high suicide rate among Oregonians..same goes for the Seattle-Spokane belt. Come to Chicago..cold version of a crowded and dirty city!!

      • Summer is really dry in the interiors. Coastal Oregon is wet, but the landscape is beautiful.
        I was in Chicago for 6 years, got to love the blizzards and the summer thunderstorms!

      • 11 years and counting..downtown life is v v different from the ‘burbs. In fact I haven’t been even near the ‘burbs in years. Blizzards mix with leaking sewage water and turn into black ice many times. I hold some railing whenever I walk..sometimes I wear thermal socks and flip-flops (chappal)…prevents me from slipping lolz..

  66. Burj Khalifa, known as Burj Dubai prior is the tallest man-made structure in the world, at 829.8 m (2,722 ft).
    Dubai is the most populous city in the United Arab Emirates . It is located on the southeast coast of the Persian Gulf and is one of the seven emirates that make up the country. Abu Dhabi and Dubai are the only two emirates to have veto power over critical matters of national importance in the country’s legislature. The city of Dubai is located on the emirate’s northern coastline and heads up the Dubai-Sharjah-Ajman metropolitan area. Dubai is to host World Expo 2020

    Reply

  67. Iguazu Falls Brazil

    Is among the 20 most beautiful lakes in the world to 17th place. The park covers an area of 33,000 hectares and includes 16 lakes in succession, connected by waterfalls.Plitvice is the oldest national park in Southeast Europa.All’interno the park there are also many caves of which only a small part is agibile.I lakes are formed by two rivers: the White River and the Black River, which flow in the river Korana. The waters of these rivers are rich in calcareous salts (mostly calcium carbonate and magnesium carbonate), from the dissolution of carbonate rocks forming the geological structure of sito.Questi salts are precipitated by vegetation, forming layers of travertine , a sedimentary rock recently. Over time, these deposits forming real natural dams that act as barriers to water, growing by about a centimeter per year. At one point the water pressure breaks these natural levees, opening new paths in the ground.

    This mechanism, in fact common to all the calcareous water, in Plitvice has assumed a particular importance.
    The beauty of the National Park Plitvice, Croatia, is increased in the second round of the New Seven Wonders of Nature.

    Reply

  69. abdul kalam passed away.his birth day,october 15,1931 is celebrated as “WORLD STUDENTS DAY”.please share this news..

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  71. Sathanur dam
    Thirukoilur arg
    7 each
    Virudachalam
    4
    Gingee
    Vilupuram
    Red hills
    Puzhal arg
    Cholavaram
    Tiruvannamalai
    K.m.koil
    Kothagiri
    3 each

    Reply

  73. WTH ,news in thina thanthi (read in news paper) has said due to long approaching cyclone has caused the rains yesterday 😛

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  74. 2nd day of cyclonic winds associated with heavy rains lash Chennai, suburbs and outskirts ending 8.30 am on 28.07.2015
    =================================
    Nonstop daily rains continue in Chennai.

    in mm

    Red Hills Lake – 27
    Cholavaram Lake – 26
    Puzhal – 26
    Minjur – 26
    Ponneri – 23
    Nemili (near Thakolam) – 23
    Chennai City – 23
    Ambattur – 19
    Sriperumbudur – 18
    Kadambathur – 16
    Avadi – 15
    Tamaraipakkam – 12
    Poonamalle – 12
    Poondi Lake – 10
    DGP office Marina – 10
    Arakonnam – 8
    Tiruvallur – 8
    Ennore – 6
    Madhavaram – 6

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  79. Todqy looks like a picture perfect day for intense ts. My gut feeling says Chennai could receive 60-70 mm in a single day in the coming week

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  82. whenever i face an issue with my seniors in my off..i just remind our lovable APJ Abdul kalam sir words..Those words never made me down & gave me more spirit to handle those pressure..He is no over now–it means only his body..but his soul still & will lives with us always..Those golden words are:
    – If you fail, never give up because F.A.I.L. means “first Attempt In Learning”
    – End is not the end, if fact E.N.D. means “Effort Never Dies”
    – If you get No as an answer, remember N.O. means “Next Opportunity”.
    So Let’s be positive. “Dr. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam of feel LIFE”

    Reply

    • more than all these , i loved this statement ” Do not take much rest after your 1st victory .because if u fail in 2nd more people are waiting to say that your 1st victory is just because of luck “

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  85. Today skymet is expecting 3mm of rain for chennai.yesterday it expected 0 mm .lets see whats goung to happen today.

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  86. One thing sure…..Chennai ll have normal swm …many predicted below normal swm of chennai..including ecmcf
    if we get 80-90mm for each aug and sep ,then we ll ends with normal swm…that is highly possible

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  88. Negative SST anomaly over SW Bay of Bengal from today. This is inducing ACC at 500 HPA levels near coastal TN. This will bring the humidity levels to reduce at mid and lower levels.

    This is why i said TS chances are less over Chennai.

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  90. Mumbai rains In July: Weakest in last ten years

    After receiving the highest ever rainfall in June, Mumbai
    has received the least amount of rain in July this year as compared to
    the past ten years. The record-breaking June rainfall in Mumbai covered
    up for the July rainfall to an extent but in absence of any significant
    rainfall in July, the city of dreams is far away from crossing its
    monthly average rainfall.

    Due to light to moderate rain since last 7 days, Mumbai has received a
    total of 265 mm of rain so far in July which is below by 67% than the
    monthly average rainfall of 800 mm. According to Skymet Meteorology
    Division of India, even though light intermittent rain will continue in
    Mumbai for next few days, it will take a couple of days before heavy
    rains hit Mumbai again and so July is likely to end on a dry note.

    For almost first 20 days in July, dry weather prevailed in Mumbai due
    to which residents were left to reel under extremely hot and humid
    weather where maximum and minimum temperature were settling 2-3 notches
    above normal. The situation was dismal after a record breaking June that
    witnessed rainfall crossing the 1000 mm mark.

    July being the rainiest month for Mumbai had observed record breaking
    rainfall on a few occasions in the past where the city fetched a
    whopping 1454 mm of rain in 2005, followed by 1468 mm of rain last year.
    However, the absence of any active Monsoon system in the Bay of Bengal
    has rendered a relatively dry July during Monsoon in Mumbai.

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  94. July 26 is the rainiest day of this year’s season so far. Country recorded 14.1 mm of rain against an average of 9.7 mm on July 26.

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  96. Over the past 8 days, Ahmadabad, India has received over 240mm of rain which is more rain than they received (201mm) from Jan 1-Jul 20.

    Courtesy jason

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  99. 13’N Popups to start in few minutes as the cumulonimbus started to climb up in latitude

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  100. கும்பகோணத்தில் பறக்கும் பாம்பு
    நேற்று நடந்த உண்மை சம்பவம்
    இடம் சாக்கோட்டை

    Reply