Twins to get stronger and will keep monsoon active

keaweather 2015, KEA Blog, SWM-2015

One of the twins, the Low Pressure Area (LPA) in the North West Bay of Bengal off the Bangladesh coast, has rapidly concentrated into a Depression. It is expected to intensify further into Deep Depression and will dump very heavy rainfall over East Indian states in the coming days. The other twin, a Well-marked Low Pressure Area (WML) near Rajasthan / Gujarat, has been dumping extreme rainfall with Jaora (Madhya Pradesh) 387 mm, Chhotisadri (Rajasthan) 230 mm and Quant (Gujarat) 206 mm. It will intensify into a Depression and will continue to pound Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh with heavy rains. Watch out for extreme heavy rainfall of over 250 mm at certain places. North Interior Tamil Nadu will continue to get Intense Thunderstorms which will shift to coastal areas by evening / Night.
02. Meteosat5
Chennai – The wet days will continue with rains expected in the evening / Night with temperature settling close to 36-37 C.

Coimbatore – It will be a routine day with temperature hovering around 31-32 C, with chance of light showers.

Madurai – No respite in the heat with Temperature peaking to around 39 C. Rains will cool parts of the city with thundershowers later in the evening / night.

2,094 thoughts on “Twins to get stronger and will keep monsoon active”

  4. OMG…SWM cumulative rainfall index going crazy and increasing daily by 1% per 1 day. Within last 2 days SWM cumulative index increased by 2% and now stood at -5%. With tis rate it looks it will end normal/excess by the end of July. So overall SWM cumulative rainfall index will end on normal level for the first 2 months (june & july).

    Note:
    The incoming rain wave from BOB would like to fill the most of the rain-deficits along West-central and west coast.

    Reply

  5. Good morning frnds, yesterday TS was a severe and best one of the season.. Which accumulate with strong winds.. The wind was so strong that some rains may haven’t recorded in RG.. Easily it would have recorded near 50mm in all stations by seeing the roads conditions.. Almost all roads r flooded.. Best TS of the season..

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  8. The present 3 synoptic systems along SWM-axis exactly mimics June 3rd week’s 3 synoptic systems’ pattern. The present MISO scenario exactly repeating and mimicking with June 2nd half SWM-rainfall pattern but with “little less amplitude”.

    In conclusion July-rainfall may end near normal mode instead of excess like June-style due to present lower amplitude MISO.

    Reply

  11. JTWC: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
    (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 22.3N 90.6E,
    APPROXIMATELY 69 NM WEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED
    INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
    ALONG THE BANGLADESH COASTLINE, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
    THE BAY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
    HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE 850 MB
    VORTICITY SIGNATURE IS BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC. A 261533Z ASCAT
    PARTIAL PASS REVEALED 30 KNOT WINDS UNDERNEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION.
    THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE;
    HOWEVER, FUTHER ORGANIZATION IS HAMPERED BY MODERATE TO STRONG
    VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (20-30 KNOTS) IN ADDITION TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
    WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OVER LAND. NUMERICAL
    GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS DEPICT THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKING VERY SLOWLY
    WESTWARD ALONG THE COASTLINE INTO INDIA OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
    IF THE DISTURBANCE WERE TO TRACK JUST SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH,
    THE WARM WATERS OF THE BAY AND GOOD OUTFLOW MAY ALLOW FOR RAPID
    DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
    ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
    ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
    A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

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  12. Yesterday was one of the Best Storms of the Year. It was Cyclonic Winds and the Winds are Peaking up to 60 – 70km/hr and its Pelting here in Ambattur with Massive winds and RR reaching 200 – 300mm/hr sometimes. Rain lasted for an hour from 10 – 11pm and drizzles continuing after that for another 45mins. This Storm Behaved Weirdly as the Storms started to form as Squall and Violent One after reaching 100km Radius and There was a Good Moisture Support. Previously in April and May most of the Storms Dissipate or Skip But Now the Nature Has Been Showing His Mercy To Chennai.
    Stroms Birth happened near 250km West of Chennai and it travelled nearly 150km With Moderate Intensity and While Entering in to Chennai it Was a Violent and The Shelf Clouds has Covering Entire Western Horizon It Looks Very Cherish. Lightnings are Sharp Yesterday but Thunders Frequency is Lesser. But the Rains are Very Heavy with Massive Winds. Very Happy to See TS 7th Day in a Row. This July has Turned to a Unbelievable Manner.

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  13. Storms are Alive Still to the 400km East of Chennai. Wondering How this Storms Travelled this Much Distance.
    Origin 250km West of Chennai Currently 400km East of Chennai. TS Travelled Nearly 650km.

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  14. Chandra Mouli, Ambattur 21 hours ago

    Another Day of Possiblity of Thunder Storms Today over Tamilnadu. North Coastal Tamilnadu might Receive Good Spells Especially Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram Dists Gets Heavy Rains and Some Places over South Interiors as well gets Moderate Rains.
    Today Temperature is Expected to be Around 36’C in Chennai

    Iam, PJ and Atchu and many of us here Hoping for Good Rains from Morning.
    Yesterday My Prediction Was Full Success 😉

    Reply

    • this decrease in IOD can be attributed to decrease in SSTs to form Oceanic tropical convergence zone (OTCZ) which set up active SWM conditions along west-coast (even TN received good continuous rains for last 7 days). Even pat of SWM-moisture might have migrated to north BOB to set up present depression.

      Reply

  18. One of the best and intense ts i have seen in my life after joing this blog!!.it was like a squall.!!
    massive winds gusting to 70km/hr and with intense pouring with rain rate 200mm/hr..super rains with loud thunders and lightning!!
    My rg recorded 39mm!!

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  19. one of the thing is that i will not forgot the winds in where my rg flown off!!
    will this cost 2mm??

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  20. Good morning..

    A deep depression is persisted in bay of bengal near 22.3N 90.6E approx 100 km from Chittagong, Bangladesh.This slow moving system(25 knots) is expected to track westwards with 997mb pressure.

    This would give very heavy rain to Bangladesh, west bengal and north odisha.

    Outer band of this low pressure system is expected to give decent rain to Tamilnadu coast including Chennai.

    Chennai is expected to receive medium to rather heavy rain between 6 to 9 pm today.

    Nungambakkam 37mm, Ambattur-45 mm and many parts of city recorded average 2 to 3 cm rain last night.

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  22. flash…as per latest BOM values, nino1+2 SST increased over Niño 3.4 SST (according to weekly relative values). Thus classical Elnino’s sub-variant too aligned in classical mode. This will enhance the BOB & WP’s tropical cyclogenesis when compared to Arabian & east-pacific.

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  24. With IMD Rain Figures We Have Happily Crossed 200 mm For This SWM !!!
    185 mm This Month Just 85 mm More To Break The All Time Record !!!
    Meanwhile,Nunga Has Almost Closed Meena…Meena is 251 mm I Remember For The
    Year Nunga Is Just 30 mm Away !!!
    Meena Badly Needs Rains!!!

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  25. But Disappointment Is That Still One WS-VS Electric Storm Giving More Than 50 mm To Nunga!!!
    Is Left

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  28. Good Morning all. Amazed at the prospects of Depression chances in Gujarat/Rajasthan and more rainy days chances for North TN. Not to mention the Deep Depression awaiting E India!

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  30. We might see isolated storms today in TN after which rains will reduce drastically.. They will resume after the DD crosses the coast and enters Central India

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  33. We have/had an influence of bay system indirectly here but not through any outer bands or any other means of direct influence!! It is just an illusion,the strong upper level winds makes such an satellite image,as if all the rain clouds were connected..

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  34. Preliminary Rainfall figures from Yesterday’s Cyclonic TS in Chennai, Suburbs and Outskirts

    in mm

    Kadambathur (Near Tiruvallur) – 45
    Poondi Agro – 44
    Ambattur – 41
    Nungambakkam – 39
    Puzhal Agro – 34
    Poonamalle – 33
    Tiruvallur – 26
    Puzhal – 25
    Avadi – 22
    Taramani – 20
    Sriperumbudur – 19
    Tiruttani – 16
    Chembarabakkam – 15
    Sholinganallur – 15
    Katupakkam – 13
    Guindy – 13
    Madhavaram – 12
    Kunnathur (Near Kelambakkam) – 11
    Kelambakkam – 7
    Kolapakkam – 7
    Meenambakkam – 6
    Minjur – 5

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  37. Rami, it’s not the kind of pull effect you’d find during NEM. The system played its part in terms of pulling moisture and making the off-shore trough and peninsular trough active, but these are not directly caused by the system. These storms would’ve occurred without the BOB system, but wouldn’t have been so intense

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      • That’s exactly what I’ve written in the last line, storms would’ve occurred, but the intensity wouldn’t have been the same. The system played its part in enhancing upper divergence

  40. OMG….even the steering winds are not strong during MJO effected TSs between July 22nd and July 25th. But yesterday’s jet speed in TS clearly indicates that “dip in isobars” by strengthening of BOB-depression, thus created the pull effect scenario.

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    • Ambattur might have crossed 6CM mouli.one of the best spell I have seen this year. Lasted for one hour

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  43. Really bad miss for S chennai .. only 19 mm here. South has been consistently missing a lot lately

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  46. look at the wind field and pressure associated with the system, it is highly limited with NW bay.. and incase if it is a band or a pull effect of the system, we r wrong with tat system intensity ,it should be a minimum cat 3 cyclone…lol

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  50. There is an enhanced upper level divergence for the last 6 to 7 days provided by the wave activity.. it should have helped in intensifying storms to great heights across the TN all these days….

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  51. 8th day in a row good Possibility of TS today. Chennai and Surroundings get good Rains and north interiors and other north and central coast tamilnadu some places will receive moderate to heavy rains.
    Temperature in Chennai expected to be 35 – 36

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  52. Why we don’t have any favourable conditions in first 15 days of July. It’s clearly evident that MJO at phase 2 done great job for the last 1 week in setting excellent conditions for the daily TS activity.

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  54. We should be happy with what we got last night. Until 9 or 9:30 pm, I don’t think anyone of us had any hope of even recording 1 mm.

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  56. water crisis looming city forcing authorities to use veeranam water. These rains will certainly benefit to charge the aquifiers and hope the lakes survive. This NEM will be a bonus for all of us.

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    • So if this dips southern ,then chennai TS will go dormant ? but Pondy and below will get wide spread ‘Low’ pulled TS’s ?

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  61. Rajesh, wireless may well be correct. May be I got deceived by the rains accompanied by swirling winds.
    It seems that the sensor took its own time n updated the rains. So I’m going with the readings of 37.1 mm for our area. paint dabba n bottle RG are showing the same amount.
    Paint dabba..39 mm..Bottle 35 mm.

    Reply

      • True Rajesh, i agree, still our area got the heaviest i would guess.based on the radar image and the rainfall intensity,

    • Infact 1992 North Indian Ocean cyclone season was unofficially the most active year on record for the basin with 10 tropical storms developing, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

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  71. Another rainy day, last night also it was heavy, may be min 2cm, along with heavy thunders, and scary lightnings

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  74. Today its going to massive rains see this. It is the highest GFS has shown this July

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    • Probably TS’s will peak and dump in open waters PJ sir. All this models are never reliable for SWM induced TS in chennai. Let’s chek it today.

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      • its only for guidance. But today’s TS could be the intense one of the season so far.

      • There lies the clue. Without passing us, TS cant form there. So sure shot rains for Chennai. Whether it is north or central or south has to be seen.

  76. @novak_nole:disqus your test batsman played an ODI innings yesterday with a strike rate of around 102 🙂 Waiting for the day he plays at t20 rates

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  77. Rainfall figures from Cyclonic wind associated Thunder Storm in Chennai, Suburbs and Outskirts ending 8.30 am on 27.07.2015
    ================================
    No stopping of daily rains in Chennai. Lake areas again got good rains along with core city areas. Past 10 days rains will definetly improve ground water.

    Many trees have fallen. Hats off to Corporation to clear them so fast.

    Chennai city recorded its highest rainfall of 37.5 mm for the year 2015.

    in mm

    Kadambathur (Near Tiruvallur) – 45
    Poondi Agro – 45
    Ambattur – 41
    Nungambakkam – 38
    Puzhal Agro – 34
    Tiruvallur – 26
    Puzhal – 25
    Poonamalle – 23
    Poondi Lake – 23
    Avadi – 22
    Taramani – 20
    Sriperumbudur – 19
    Chembarabakkam – 17
    Redhills Lake – 17
    Tiruttani – 16
    Sholinganallur – 15
    Katupakkam – 13
    Guindy – 13
    Madhavaram – 12
    Cholavaram Lake – 11
    Kunnathur (Near Kelambakkam) – 11
    Tamaraipakkam – 9
    Kelambakkam – 7
    Kolapakkam – 7
    Meenambakkam – 6
    Minjur – 5

    Reply

    • Pj we need one RG to be fixed in Avadi township. It got more rains could be as same as Ambattur

      Reply

  78. Is there ny feature here so that one can share their contact details if they want directly…

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  82. Looking at the bright sunshine,,feels like whether we got the deluge rains yesterday night or not? Flooded roads reminds it..That’s nature..pounding rains at night & sharp sunshine in morning..

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  83. Atchu asked for 100 mm we got 38 mm. Cheers atchu u were the only one who was expecting heavy rains.

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  85. MJO likely to rule second half of August.

    Kelvin likely to emerge in the second week of August in Phase 2 and slowly strengthen while reaching central equatorial indian ocean by 16th, followed by MJO by 3rd week.

    After 15th of August MJO likely to emerge in Phase 2 and becomes stronger once it reaches Phase 3. This will bring excess rainfall especially to south india, hence wet end to August is expected over South India and Tamil Nadu.

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  87. As per reports there is a proposal to bring water from Erode thro trains, for Chennai water needs, like 2001

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  88. it was little strange, as yesterday thunderstorm traveled at a speed of nearly 70 KMS from west, reached the city -directly from west to east. places beyond mount not getting heavy spells as expected, as being late 10 PM, stretching towards south was ruled out. Both central and north chennai received very good spell for nearly one hour. Hopefully places like vadapalani, kodambakkam, ashoknagar, anna nagar would have received about 5 centimeters with in one hour is really a good one.

    Going by the climate prevailing now, we can hope repeated thunderstorm today also; If temperature climbs up to 36 we can get showers by 7 PM.
    SS

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  89. Jupi,

    I think there was discussion on Positive IOD+ELNINO vs TN rainfall?

    TN will get lesser rainfall during these conditions as the wind anomaly suggest that to have southerly winds. This will suppress the moisture over SW Bay of Bengal. Arabian Sea branch of SWM winds will strengthened.

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  90. Can Nunga beat the following July Rainfall

    1818 – 298.5 mm
    2001 – 269.8 mm
    2007 – 243.9 mm
    1846 – 231.6 mm
    1954 – 228.9 mm
    1871 – 225.6 mm
    1915 – 225.3 mm
    1961 – 223.1 mm
    1981 – 210.4 mm
    1975 – 204.9 mm
    1859 – 204.2 mm
    1852 – 203.2 mm
    1921 – 201.7 mm

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    • Once I asked a Swiss Tourist what he was doing in Mahabalipuram on a very hot May Month day sunbasking near the beach and he told he had severe skin issues and then his Dr in geneva advised him to take a 2 month medical toursim in hot sun of Chennai and told its a very health sun rays 🙂

      Reply

      • lot of Switzerland pple visit mahabalipuram.. i hav seen swiss tourists having great time with their kids in mahab beach when i was 13 years old.. Even last year also i saw group of swiss pple in mahabalipuram with their flags in their hands.

      • Anything above the limit is not healthy…Still early sun and dawn sun rays are special…

      • as per my knowledge, we are the only state along with Pondy, who have displayed both regional Tamil language, and English in every bus itself, which immensely helps other states people also easily to move around with in the state,

  93. According to reports nearly 64K crore pathis left India in the last 14 years, which is standing in 2nd position behind China,

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      • I am happy with what we got until now. Yesterday was talking with a farmer near guduvanchery, he said not much rains there until now, the lakes are dry, but confident more rains from aadi third week after local temple festivals are over.

  96. Today one of the most Intense TS will form around Vellore. Can it break the Chennai Bermuda circle. That is beyond our control. It is the TS which will set wind pattern.

    Going to be very very interesting day to track TS and learning….! slowly we are mastering how TS will flank at last circle. Few more TS needed to confirm the exact movement.

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    • As of now TS is moving NW pattern. Thats where i differ with models with Depression in North Bay we wont see storms moving from 13 Lattitude to 12 lattitude.

      It will be mostly west and SW. Lets wait for final movement. As per models its moving towards Mahabalipuram to Pondy.

      Lets wait and tack partner partha.

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      • NW direction only over coastal areas, in interiors it is West.
        Since the D over WB, surely NW winds will prevail only in the coast, as it starts moving West in next few days, then even interiors will get NW.

    • How do you determine where the upcoming TS will cross the coast? It could flank unpredictably and go anywhere

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      • ofc, most parts were dry, all the three rivers(two branch river & palar) remains dry throughout the year.

      • do not expect the river to flow in full form, the rivers start from other states and they had already built check dams, so no chance except peek NE monsoon.

      • i don’t expect the river to b in full flow, i would say its good that it is dry, otherwise all the effluents from ranipet will be poisoning most of the taluks where it is flowing.

      • Palar is an underground river, they say. You can maybe say if it’s true. The way they are misusing the Palar river bed..frightening to see..sand mafia at it’s best..btw I always wonder why they need such a huge expensive bridge over such a dry riverbed..

      • True, I had never seen palar flowing touching it’s both banks
        but painfully witnessed trucks piled up on both sides and in river bed to loot the sands.
        Chennai & its outskirts construction is the major consumer of this.

  99. IMD confident with their forecast!!! expecting the break phase from 9th of august.. ” More organized rainfall activity associated with the fast moving MISO during this monsoon season resembles with the MISO activity during below normal rains in general.. Tis behaviour corroborates with the below normal seasonal forecast for 2015 monsoon”..

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