Monsoon to remain Active

Monsoon Dynamics continues to be in a favored state with good rainfall recorded in North, Central and Northwestern parts of the country. With the series of Upper Air Circulations (UACs) and an active monsoon trough, this momentum is expected to continue for Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and other north western states. Konkan areas and Goa are expected to see widespread rainfall alongside coastal Karnataka as the off-shore trough remains favorable.

Evening Convective Rainfall activity will increase in TN along the delta districts, Northern, Western and interior parts of the state.
02. Meteosat5
Chennai – expected to see clear sky and windy conditions with a scattered evening Thunderstorms for city and suburbs. Max temp will touch 36 – 37C

Coimbatore – Cloudy skies with temperature settling near 29-30C.Evening showers expected

Madurai – Likely to see a warm day with temperature peaking at 36C. TS expected towards evening / late evening.

1,180 thoughts on “Monsoon to remain Active

  1. Saharan dust has likely been a factor in helping to suppress tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin this season. Strong easterlies have been delivering this dry, dusty air across the Atlantic, which is helping to limit thunderstorm and tropical wave activity.

  2. Good morning.Heavy rain lashed many parts of north and south Chennai and widespread rain reported in central Chennai.

    Chennai to have medium to rather heavy rain till 30th July .It is expected that there would be some break in raining between 31st july to 3rd August. Then resumption would give more benefits to Chennai.

  3. Today is Expected to be Hot and Humid in the Day and asusual Thunder Stroms Expected over North Tamilnadu and Some Places over Delta Dists.
    Strong TS expected over Pulicat to Pondy. Temperature is Expected to Stay around 35.5 -36.5 in Chennai

  4. Ambattur only 10mm as per my RG it may be under reporting as per my feel it should be 20- 25mm or more.
    Waiting for PJ’s data

  5. Disaapointig day..13mm in my rg.
    Although It was a real SWM day with smashingglightning and heavy thunders for an hour and moderate heavy rains for 20mins…my area missed the intense rains very much..hope so today it covers

    • u want 30-40 mm daily. Be happy with 13 mm. With heavy rains, ur RG would missed many drops.

      • no..it was just not so heavy unlike other areas..it would be like 55mm/hr..moderate heavy rains for 15mins..but lightning and thunder show for 1 hour!!

  6. Jul 24 2015 : The Times of India (Chennai) – Mr Pradeep John in TOI – now Pradeep part and parcel of any weather news – Congrats
    ===================================================================================

    More short spells of rain predicted

    Chennai:

    TIMES NEWS NETWORK

    Chennai: Strong winds and thunderstorms rocked the city on Thursday night as a short spell of intense rain left the roads under water. More thunderstorms and rain are expected over the next few days, said weathermen.

    Regional meteorological centre deputy director general S B Thampi said, “The sudden downpour was a passing shower. There will be more such short spells in the coming week.“ However, the maximum and minimum temperature remained normal on Friday at 35.8°C and 24°C respectively.

    The city received 15mm of rain and the suburbs received 10mm of rain on Thursday .KEA Weather independent blogger Pradeep John said, “The winds from the Arabian Sea swept from north Chennai towards west and then south.The rain was brought by deep, rotating thunderstorms called supercell.“ .

    http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31807&articlexml=More-short-spells-of-rain-predicted-24072015003041

  7. Today’s forecast!!
    Another hot day with max 37c is expected with late chance of evening ts…today north and central chennai will get good rains

  8. The rain on Wednesday uprooted trees in several areas, including K K Nagar and Koyambedu, once again highlighting the need for better management of the city’s green cover.

  9. Some serious rains in BN yday night with winds and thunder.My RG recorded 21mm.
    Yday evening saw a great NW sky.You can see below how the Clouds took control.

  10. It looks like slowly our meteorologists are surprised by this unexpected SWM rains of June & July. Slowly they losing hope on the deficit SWM in 2015 and trying to look at “local fresh water concept” deviating from international weather forecasters’ Elnino based forecast?? 🙂

    Title: South Asia monsoon: Analysing fresh water could be key to forecast
    http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-33479507

  11. Today forecast ……………………..
    Chennai temperature would be around 37c .cloud formation would occur soon as possible as . This make way to strong evening ts . North and south Chennai going to get heavy rain in evening/night . Central Chennai would get medium and good rains .

  12. Another interesting Day for TS. Today too the perfect moisture at all levels. weird wind pattern with updraft

  13. The following article indicates about local-factors’ influence on SWM rains, but the following paragraph clearly shows that IOD & ENSO influences SWM more.

    paragraph:
    “As far as the year-to-year variability of the monsoon goes, changes in land use, urbanisation and aerosols are far less significant than the dominant El Niño and IOD. But they are important enough to influence the picture over the next century.”

    Title: “Why forecasting the Indian monsoon is devilishly difficult.
    Dubbed the world’s most complex weather phenomenon, it is influenced by much more than El Niño.”

    link: http://scroll.in/article/739938/why-forecasting-the-indian-monsoon-is-devilishly-difficult

  14. ha..ha…I can’t stop my laugh by reading the title of the following article (even content). When I made “good SWM-2015” rainfall prediction in May/June itself then all are stared (some might have laughed, some even wished me good luck) at me. It looks slowly my time is coming to have last laugh by looking about +ve discussions about abnormal high SMW performance despite Elnino’s monstrous growth in the strength that too under neutral IOD:)

    Think I am only the blogger who predicted good SWM in 2015 along with Skymet. Lets wait and see what will happen finally.

    Title: Indian Metereologists Can’t Figure Why Monsoon Is Defying El Nino

    link: http://www.huffingtonpost.in/2015/07/22/indian-metereologists-can_n_7846028.html

    • pj will come with magic and surprising figures.
      but sad to c meena just 11mm in yesterdays topic.

      i felt chitlapakkam/east tbm areas would have got >50mm in 40-45 min.
      very intense and continuous downpour.

      as usual when it rains ,there is power cut and we didnt had power the whole nit.

    • Hi partha,ggood mrg..tats quite common thing happens wen strong storms r nearby.. generally the downdraft of the storm cause chaos,erratic wind flow at lower level..so it is caused by the local conditions created by the storm ,it’s too much for it to relate tat with ER wave..

  15. Y’day night one of the day to remember in life, Partha you are spot on, rain started around 8.45 P.M, heavy thunders, lightning, one of the pounding of rains recently witnessed, definitely minimum 5 cm, i hope,

  16. Congratulations Pradeep, GTS..

    From here on Pradeep will be accompanied by 2 journalists, one photographer, one videographer. Pradeep will be under PreZZ category. 24/7.

  17. Seems 5-7 cm around eastern parts of TBM …and further more to the ESE , close to Sholinganalur and surroundings between 7-10 cm….Monstrous ….

      • Yeah , it easily gets filled up because it is a very shallow area , rather than a lake , it is typical marsh zone …good for the birds too…

  18. Rohit,exceptions do happen with some strong storms .. they never follow the wind pattern.. yesterday evening ts tat hit n.Chennai was expected to move east to west according to vvp . but it followed it’s own dynamics.. Same with tambaram storms,it followed it’s own dynamics.. One major storm has the potential to pull all nearby tiny storms, and also the downdraft from a strong ts have tendency to initiate a new pop up..

    • Moreover convergence created by sea breeze front ,interaction between storm front and SB front creates a convergence..

      • Yes Shan , Sel used to say that , latent heat release of one storm can actually attract the near by ones …All that can create their own environment set up very quickly , without bothering the environmental flows

  19. Sel,

    Actually the one that struck TBM was not more than 8 km i guess , am i rite ?? I wasn’t able to check it properly

    • No idea!! Even I didn’t see. I was aware of tat storm only after seeing ur msgs.. It might have been in developing stage wen it struck ur area.

    • Gokul.. It struck my place too TBM, Medavakkam, Kovilambakkam, Madipakkam, Ullagaram were the places it covered as far as i know

      • Oh ..yes yes ..but Raghav sorry , i gave an improper info. by just putting 8 km , i was about to ask the height of the storm ..btw do u remember how high was it , or any RADAR images saved ?

      • Oh.. extremely sorry gokul.. I was driving so I did not get a chance to see the radar image and how do you measure the height of the storm??

      • Unfortunately none of these places have proper RGs or else we could have known the right amount.. The shear intensity of this storm was so much frightening.. For every 30-40 seconds there were monsterous thunders and lightning throughout the lifetime of the storm.. It lasted some 30 minutes i guess

      • Sathyabama University rainfall data will give an indication of the amount of rain. PJ must be having it

  20. The thunderstorms from south which was moving north joined up with the TS up north moving south somewhere near Kanchipuram and from that time everything flared up like anything moving east and north east.

  21. Just got a chance to glance at the sky.. Lovely blue.. Something that can relieve chaos from our minds..

  22. Congratulations to PJ and the expert team for the successful predictions. I hope in the rest of the days to follow every area gets a fair share of rain and prosperity..

  23. Blog needs a congratulation thread it seems..everyday. It is occupying major portion of comments inspite of up votes.. separate postings n replying to those is swelling up

  24. Never seen before rains from Madipakkam to TBM stretch yesterday. The roads were flooded and water was up to knee level @ kamarajapuram bus stop & in rajakilpakkam. Enjoyed a lot. Also surprisingly the water was completely drained out in the morning. Is this because or good drainage planning by govt? or earth absorbed it due to extensive heat periods we had?

  25. It is a great feeling to stare at Death in the face and still be alive to type. Was returning from Gudalur to Coimbatore when I was told road was blocked by a herd of Bison. So I had to backtrack to Ooty and take the Kalahatty ghat. Was driving a Honda Civic at like, 5 km/hr speed in thick fog and blinding rain. There were landslides after the 29th bend. A tractor appeared in front of me before the 20th bend and I jammed the brakes hard and they failed. I went hurtling down the slope at God knows what speed. I closed my eyes and started saying my last prayers. Then I don’t know what happened, but 3 stones blocked my free fall (4000 ft into the valley below), and the next thing I knew, some 40-50 ppl pulled me and my family out of the car.

    Equally amazingly, only the bumper and rear doors were damaged badly. Couple weeks back, a Sumo had fallen into the valley at that very same spot and nothing was found,according to the ranger, and the ambulance driver. I don’t know why God chose to save me and my family, but this certainly proves the existence of a God. I’m planning on driving back to Chennai from Ooty in that same car after it is back from the workshop. Maybe God saved me in the form of those 3 stones. Or the crowd which helped. Or even the car. I still cannot believe I am typing all this, it feels very very strange.

  26. Congrats PJ..As DC daily forecast ..PJ’s interview will also become a daily interview routine & Expecting him soon in all media’s..

  27. Rain in two spells, second one might be heavy.

    I hope that passing showers expected in the evening itself around 05.00 PM.
    As per NET, fast moving cumulus here in Sholinganallur, at around 11.15 AM.

    Surely we will have something this evening at 05.00, and good one after 08.00 PM.

  28. Ponneri
    11
    Kaveripakkam R.k.pet
    9 each
    Peravurani , Tiruttani
    7 each
    Trp town Thuvakudi IMTI
    6 each
    Periyar Tiruvallur arg Tirukattupalli Arakonam Tiruvallur Arantangi Tambaram
    5 each

  29. For now, this will give an idea of how my car looked like *after* the accident, will post the entire sequence of events after insurance is through and police give me permission to take the car back after their investigation.

    There is a case registered against the tractor driver (must admit he was cooperative and didn’t try to escape) and I am cooperating with police to get it all sorted out.

    TN’s roads are world class, even in tiny remote mountain villages, and it might be a reason for the high accident rate in TN.

    Note: This is NOT the original pic of my car. I’ll post originals after my police case is sorted out, until then I do not have permission to include originals except to insurance ppl.

  30. Yesterday we saw the return of Senthil back to the blog after many months. He has been very busy lately but took time to blog. When you are passionate about something it is very difficult to stay away from it.
    Hope regular bloggers who are not active these days to come and start blogging.

  31. @sriram_rangarajan:disqus

    SOI is calculated based on Tahiti and Darwin MSLP average.

    If Darwin MSLP increases and Tahiti reduced, then SOI will become Negative.
    If Tahiti MSLP increase and Darwin decreases, then SOI will become Positive.

    When MJO emerges in Indian Ocean, then more moisture will be forming across the coasts of IO, hence MSLP reduced in Northern Australia including Darwin, hence SOI increases.

    SOI is not an individual phenomenon, it depends on external factors.

    • Yes I know. I cannot post pics of my car till I am in the clear. When did I ever say it was my car? Mine is bottle green and damage is similar. Stop trivializing someone’s trauma. Until you experience an incident, you think nothing or nobody can touch you. When it happens, you realize how frail you are. Enough said.

      • i too have experienced accidents and miraculously escaped, one as early as when i was 4. If your case was true, i would sincerely empathize you. But the pic you posted is totally different!

      • I clearly said I cannot post original pics, as an active police case is going on. I also mentioned in my post I’ll post the entire sequence after I’m cleared. Ambattur Sankaran wanted to see pics so I posted something 99% similar to my mishap.

        You expect me to post pics of blood stained interiors and broken fenders? Not now, after the case is closed, perhaps yes.

  32. Gokul,

    Few hours back you were telling something about the height of the storm being 8 km.. How do you measure the height actually? Will be good if you can share it

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