Monsoon Trough workings its Mechanics and Dynamics across Central India

keaweather 2015, KEA Blog, SWM-2015

The Monsoon Trough positioned across central and adjoining North India will continue to execute its elements with its normal full time cranking duties to the parameters like cloudiness and precipitation. This Monsoon Trough is seen spinning up to 3 km into the Troposphere and is getting support from a few upper air circulations, bringing in the needed dynamics and moisture to fuel the Core Monsoon rainfall mechanism. Under its regime, heavy rains are likely across Gujarat, Konkan and Goa, parts of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Odisha. At the same time, a weak off-shore trough will trigger rains along coastal Karnataka and Kerala. Northern parts of TN will see convective rains, with dry conditions prevailing in extreme S.TN.
02. Meteosat5
Chennai will see a partly cloudy day with a maximum temperature of 36-37 C and stands a fair chance of an evening/night rains.

Coimbatore will enjoy a cool/pleasant day with maximum around 29-30 C. The City has good chances of rains.

Madurai will be warm settling close to 36-37 C, with a chance of light rains.

1,971 thoughts on “Monsoon Trough workings its Mechanics and Dynamics across Central India”

  2. Looks like a mechanical engineer wrote the DC article today!
    Cranking, dynamics, spinning, mechanism!!

    Reply

  3. Ha..ha..typhoon Halola keep on stretching its west-ward/NW track. Now japan will be in complete missed track. Looks like Models are getting torched with the abnormal high amplitude Elnino.

    Note:
    I am thinking this extended west-ward/NW track might be good for SWM-dynamics to work in full force.

    Reply

  5. It looks both GFS & ECMWF indicating MJO to make small loop towards phase 2 again via phase 1 (MJO made similar type of loop at the time of Nilam-2012 cyclone).

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  6. Ambattur Records 15mm from Yesterdays TS as per my RG. Total of this july is 113mm

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  7. Jul 23 2015 : The Times of India (Chennai)
    Crisis looms, govt wants you to cut water use by 20%
    Reservoirs May Run Out In 2 Months
    The four reservoirs have a combined capacity of 11,057mcft; as on Wednesday , he storage stood at 928mcft.Deficient rainfall in the past hree years led to the deple ion, said Rain Centre director Sekhar Raghavan, warning hat a deficit rainfall this monsoon could cause shortage. India Meteorological Department had estimated rain deficit ast year to be around 13%.

    At the current rate of out low from the reservoirs, the city might face a crisis in less han two months, and it could get worse if rainfall is scarce after that. If the outflow from he reservoirs is limited to 150mld, the supply would last six months.
    http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31807&articlexml=Crisis-looms-govt-wants-you-to-cut-water-23072015001014#

    Reply

    • what is worrying me in this article is, ” water in veeranam lake, which is opened for agricultural use every year in June, has now been kept as a standby for Chennai’s water needs”, as well water frm agricultural borewells in tvl dt will be used,
      water for agricultural purpose kept stnd by for drinking water needs, what will happen to agriculture, which already receives poor rainfall so far, and which is still in initial stage of sowing

      Reply

  8. Today another day of Good Rain Possibility and Temp is Expected to be around 36.5 in Chennai. Intense TS possibility around over Chennai & Surroundings and some places of North Tamilnadu as well. Possibility of Another 25mm or above in Nungambakkam.

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  9. Today forecast ……. Chennai going to get agian pounded rains today…….. north Chennai will get more than south . Temperature would be around 36. Cloud formation would occur as much possible …… And way to evening thunderstorm …..

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  10. Today’s forecast!!
    Expecting another hot day with max around 35-37c and good chance of intense ts towards evening/night..today the rains would be widespread..

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  12. Dont Forget to take your umbrella, Heavy Rains are expected today in Chennai
    ========================================
    Today the conditions even more perfect, moisture available in Chennai atmosphere right from 5 kms in height to surface level. If a thunder cell forms, it will as intense like yesterday.

    Yesterday Traffic Chaos in Chennai was its best. We took two hours to reach from Parrys to Adyar. Seeing the sunny skies dont assume it wont rain. This is SWM rains here happen only in evening and night.

    Expecting another thrilling day of Rains.

    Reply

  15. Interesting week ahead for entire country as enhancing wave activity has started influencing our monsoon dynamics… and coming back to models outlook,i came through bloggers post indicating it as a cyclone and DD..one important thing for our bloggers notice..the Isobar contour difference wont b the same in GFS and ECMWF… ECMWF normally plot their pressure chart with 5hpa difference and gfs with 4hpa..while considering the intensity of the system, the environmental pressure during tis part of season stays near 1000..(anything below tat will b classified as a low) and moreover the isobar difference of two is just wml or depression(depends upon the intensity of winds).. only when the difference exceeds 4 or more ,it will be a DD or cyclone!!!

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  17. Good morning, good rains yesterday, today also everything looks positive,

    The black ants started coming inside the house in large numbers, this i am seeing after many months, preparing themselves for the heavy rainy days ahead.

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  19. Congrats Gokul

    Widespread cloud cover measuring to a depth of nearly 15km was responsible for the intense downpour, said KEA Weather independent blogger T Gokul. “On Tuesday and previous days, the cloud cover did not measure any more than seven or eight kilometres.“
    RMC deputy director general S B Thampi said, “Rain will continue over the next week, though the showers may not be as intense as on Wednesday .“
    http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31807&articlexml=Weatherman-forecasts-more-rain-over-next-wk-23072015003040

    Reply

  20. comparing last week sst anomaly chart with day before yesterday chart!! clear rise in sst over n.bay is seen wich is the indication of system formation!!

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  25. Its showing no records of rainfall in cheyyur.
    isn’t TS passed by that way yesterday 😦 ?

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  31. During earlier prediction before monsoon, every forecast said North west India will receive less/ poor rain fall this SWM, defying all forecasts, rains in N.W India is eight percent more than what the region gets between June 1 and July till date, but all other regions received below normal rainfall so far as per IMD, any specific reason?

    Reply

      • ha ha, Gopal is media shy. Don’t expect him to be quoted regarding weather or metro

    • I do not like the idea of underground Metro or stations in Chennai, as here already we are in a low lying plain with loose soil. Hope they had conducted all kind of tests and conditions for the safety of these structures.

      Reply

      • None of the subways are free from water during rains. Metro started leaking at 3cm rains. Peak NEM, we can use underground stations as “water-coaster or wonder-splash” 🙂

  39. Even though there was news of flooding rains in Mumbai couple of days back, the city is still in deficit.
    Colaba – 123 mm negative
    Santa Cruz – 141 mm positive

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  41. The ER wave impact and Negative OLR jointly produce TS for today and tomorrow.
    Watchout for widespread one like yesterday, but areas will get rain in different timings, so bloggers don’t get disappointed by seeing an area getting rain.

    By the way, My Best Wishes to Gokul for his another milestone.

    Reply

  44. With yesterdays rainfall, Nunga beats Meena in season and Years tally
    Chennai – Yearly 171 Season 149
    Chennai AP – Yearly 163 Season 148

    Reply

  45. The draft bill for “Indian Sports bill” is ready, and includes all sports bodies in India, including BCCI, under it’s ambit, “If any player, official or administrator is caught cheating, there is provision for heavy fines and a jail term up to maximum of five years in cases like match-fixing,” says a report, if implemented the mighty? BCCI should also answer in future

    Reply

  46. One suggestion for DC forecast. If we are sure about which part of Chennai would be benefited more by rains, can we state that specifically like South Chennai or South of Chennai. Our Chennai forecast kind-of resembles IMD’s http://www.imdchennai.gov.in/rsum.htm:

    FOR NEXT 24 HOURS: The sky condition would be partly cloudy. Rain or thundershowers may occur in some areas during evening or night. Maximum and Minimum temperature would be around 37 and 28 deg Celsius respectively.

    FOR NEXT 48 HOURS: The sky condition would be partly cloudy. Rain or thundershowers may occur in some areas during evening or night. Maximum and Minimum temperature would be around 37 and 28 deg Celsius respectively.

    Reply

    • if we know which part of Chennai will be benefited 24 hours before the occurrence, we wont be blogging here.

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      • Some of our predictions given previous night our spot-on.I read people say “tomorrow it will be S.Chennai chance” etc

      • oh before 6pm. i thought we will have time till 10PM or so. not possible then..

      • trust me, its all luck. Nobody is sure which part of Chennai will get hit. TS are all very difficult to predict.

  53. Jharkhand education minister pays homage to a very much alive Abdul Kalam

    wth how dumb is an educational minister, happens oly in india.. god save ppl

    Reply

    • california(san francisco,san andreas) giant EQ,las palmas de gran canaria creating massive TSUNAMI almost makes news daily..i am waiting for tat day for last 3 years. its not happening at all

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  58. No words for describing these type of clouds..it was very scary while taking photo & video..when this cloud was above on my head..i really felt like seeing a sci-fi english movie live..

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  59. good heat and humidity levels coupled with sea breeze can trigger one more thunderstorm by late evening. a clear blue sky during day time at least up to 3 PM can turn out to be an excellent feature for convection. let us hope to get at least 5 centimeters today. possibly showers might start after 5 PM today.

    ss

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  60. Claiming
    that she knew that garlanding the photograph was wrong, she added: “I
    did not want to hurt the children’s feelings so I applied vermilion and
    inaugurated the smart class. As soon as I left the school, I called up
    the principal and asked him to remove the garland.

    Reply

  63. Uthiramerur 8
    Vandavasi 7
    Poonamallee , Tiruvallur , Devala 5 each
    Tiruvallur arg Red hills Valparai pto Hvf avadi arg Mahabalipuram 4 each
    Chennai ap , Chennai 3

    Reply

  64. last evening ts during formative stage in NASA AQUA MODIS and METSAT image while storm striking us!

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  68. is it necessary that temperature should go above 36c to give enough heat for formation of good TS in the early evening?

    Reply

  69. Squad: Virat Kohli (capt), Varun Aaron, R Ashwin, Shikhar Dhawan,
    Harbhajan Singh, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Cheteshwar Pujara, Ajinkya Rahane,
    Wriddhiman Saha, Ishant Sharma, Amit Mishra, Rohit Sharma, M Vijay,
    Umesh Yadav, KL Rahul

    Reply

  87. Kohli had requested the board to select him in the A squad as a means of getting practice..Virat
    Kohli, India’s Test captain, will play in the second ‘unofficial’ Test between India A and Australia A in Chennai from July 29– Bcci

    Reply

    • It is not a mean of getting Practice.. He want to regain form that’s all… Summa request and all… He’s not in form and not much experienced in Test.. Then also Captain…

      Reply

    • indian team leaves for Lanka, on Aug1, only, there is no preparatory camp scheduled, the Aus A match going on in Chennai,will be an ideal practice for lanka tour, if BCCI allow barring the player who played in Zimbawe, others to play that match, it will be a good practice,

      Reply

  95. Pop ups forming in the same place as like yesterday.. Hope it organises and flanks south just like yesterday

    Reply

      • It might.. or if not new pop ups might form south.. Lets see.. We have good miosture at 500,700,850HPA levels and wind shear is greater than 50 Kts.. Ideal conditions.

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