Patchy Rains Likely In South India

keaweather 2015, KEA Blog, SWM-2015

The upper air circulation is likely to intensify and descend into a low pressure area over North Central India and move across Madhya Pradesh/ Uttar Pradesh border bringing heavy rains across central India, especially Madhya Pradesh. This circulation is going to embed itself in an upper air trough running across east India. This will result in thundershowers in the other states like Jharkhand, Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Odisha. West Bengal too would witness thundershowers. Widespread heavy rains likely over North East India leading to possible floods, thanks to an upper air circulation harbored over the area. Another western disturbance and its interaction with the monsoon trough would trigger spotty rains over the Himalayan regions of North West India, Pradesh and Punjab. The NCR might witness a shower or two. Kerala and coastal Karnataka would experience much needed deficit-cutting rains. Tamil Nadu could see evening thundershowers after an uncomfortable afternoon.

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Chennai – Yet another humid and hot day touching 39c, with possible showers later in the day.

Coimbatore – Light rains/drizzles would occur with temperatures not more than 33 C.

Madurai – Hot with little chance of rains. Readings could soar up to 39-40 C.

1,650 thoughts on “Patchy Rains Likely In South India”

  6. Wow….MJO beats all odd forecasts and adamant to lose amplitude. As of 16th July MJO just entered phase 1 with good amplitude of +1.50.

    This MJO entry into phase 1 is a Hercules task when Elnino under strengthening (in general under Elnino conditions, MJO won’t attain greater than +1.0 amplitude).

    It looks SWM will be getting the crucial MJO support at this crucial stage. So SWM will definitely bounce back to normal as early as possible.

    MJO: http://s8.postimg.org/5m5mx7vt1/rmm_phase_Last40days.gif

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  10. Rainfall in Tamilnadu

    Nungambakkam – 26
    Acharapakkam (Kanchipuram) – 23
    Chetpet (Tiruvannamalai) – 21
    Sathyabama University – 21
    Chembarambakkam – 20
    Anna University – 20
    KVK Kattupakkam – 18
    Lower Kothaiyar – 16
    Poonamallee -15
    Panruti – 13
    Thellar (Tiruvannamalai) – 13
    Meenambakkam – 12
    Nagerkoil – 11
    Pechiparai – 11
    Nallur – (Cuddalore) – 11
    Ooty – 10
    Taramani – 10
    Tiruporur – 9

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  15. EID MUBARAK TO ameen,kea,atchu,ashraf,asad and all others and gudmrng all hope for a ts evening!:-P

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  16. Eid Mubarak / Perunaal vaalthukkal to all weather loving friends here and their family. Specially to Ehasan, Ameen, Asad and other muslims here.

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  20. Today’s forecast:

    Chennai going to experience a another hot day with max around 39 to 40c..
    Another day will be interesting to see the radar..Isolated heavy rain possible at Isolated places..
    Today north Chennai might get more rains while south chn will record light to moderate rains!

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  21. Eid wishes to kea blog friends and all..
    you fasted, you prayed,
    you been good for a whole thirty days.
    So your merciful lord gave you a sign.
    Out came the moon to say come celebrate.
    Happy Eid mubarak..

    Reply

  23. Conditions today are very similar to yesterday. Excellent moisture available at 700 hPa level. With a hot day ahead, expect some TS activity similar to yesterday. Today, Mahabs-Pondy stretch could get more than Chennai.

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  25. Eid Mubarak to all of my friends!!! Btw IMD coupled model outlook shows chennai getting normal to above normal rains for next 10 days!!! frequency of ts may vary!! starting from 21st july, monsoon core areas like WB,Bihar,E.UP likely to get above normal rains for 8 to 10 days& cloudburst threat remains for uttarkhand,himachal pradesh!

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  33. Eid mubarak to all friends.

    BTW, Arumbakkam had recorded 16.2 mm from yesterday’s evening spell. Not counted the first spell at 4:30 PM. It is from spell after 6 PM.

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  35. July – 1 (2 mm)

    July – 9 (6 mm)

    July – 10 (31 mm)

    July – 17 (21 mm)

    Wettest Day Of The Year !!! – April 15 (69 mm)

    Yearly Rainfall

    Jan – 2 mm

    Feb – 0 mm

    Mar – 0 mm

    Apr – 69 mm

    May – 9 mm

    June – 34 mm

    July – 60 mm

    Total – 174 mm!!!

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  40. I am going write in one of the avoided languages in tamil nadu for want of stupid pride in speaking in english.

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  41. Perfect July conditions, btw happy Ramadan wishes to all Muslim friends and brothers

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  42. இஸ்லாமிய நண்பர்களுக்கு ஈகை திருநாள் நல்வாழ்த்துக்கள்

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  43. Strong in our backyard ,IMD proved it again!!! no chance of positive iod tis year ,neutral IOD conditions to continue throughout the year, and negative iod conditions to evolvE in 2016 feb.. look at the confidence in their forecast ,86% probality of neutral iod conditions to continue

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  45. Wish Dear Ehsan, Kutty Ameen, Asad, Atchu and others in Kea Weather Happy Ramadan. Its a day another TS expected to knock Chennai’s doors with Hit or Miss type.

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  49. Widespread Rains in Kerala !!!
    SWM Revives In Kerala !!!

    Alapuzha – 47 mm
    Kannur – 118 mm
    Kochi – 59 mm
    Kottayam – 34 mm
    Kozhikode – 95 mm
    Punalur – 35 mm
    Trivandrum – 8 mm

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    • Thats not Parambikulam so dont quote that. And Sholayar is 55 mm. Avalanche is 42 mm.

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      • NO… tats the story till last year..now collaborated with cfs AGCM & OGCM model .they hav their own model ,data is getting fed by INCOIS &GODAS.. outputs r drawn very much here in pune

      • I think its still based on CFS. As per news reports their own dynamical model will be ready in 2017.

      • yeah.. may be their own model. tis one is in collaboration with US… meanwhile our super computer weather model bhaskara is working in full progress.. IMD is using their outputs for forecast

      • How is CFS performance when it comes to IOD forecast. Currently ECMWF, NASA and JAMSTEC are struggling with IOD forecast. Only POAMA has been good.

      • Till now their forecast was on target but they’re expecting basin wide warming through out this year.

      • it may happen!! i m not confident of positive iod evolving after late august as basin will start warming evenly when sun starts to move into s.hem

      • Yes, it looks like IOD may stay neutral but in the past strong el ninos( 1877, 1896, 1902, 1941, 1957) where IOD stayed neutral during JJA period we had seen sudden positive IOD development during SON period.

      • chances r there but not bright…imd’s max probability of positive iod conditions were with ASO and it is just 23%

      • Then its good for cyclogenesis in BOB during coming NEM.
        BOB was super active in 1965. We had strong el nino with neutral IOD in 1965.

      • we need to check where descending limb of elnino induced walker circulation falls during tis year.. and also vertical velocity parameter

      • *during tat part of season..,each year it differs even though if it is an elnino year

      • Sel,
        Can you tell me about 1940 BOB cyclone season. It seems that it was also strong el nino( ONI +1.84 during NDJ) with neutral iod year.

  55. Latest IRI dynamic and statistical model summary for ENSO. Average of all models has a peak of +2C from Oct-Jan.

    Courtesy jason

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  57. As the candle light flame,
    Ur life may always be happiness claim;

    As the mountain high,
    U move without sigh;
    like the white linen flair,
    Purity is always an affair;
    As sunshine creates morning glory,
    fragrance fills years as flory;
    with the immaculate eternal smile,
    attached to u mile after mile;
    All darkness is far away,
    As light is on its way;

    Reply

  64. To all humans – On this chand raat of mah-e-ramzan i pray to God that he ll give you all his blessings,and all your wishes come true,Happy Ramdan Mubarak

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  66. Here’s the ONI back to 1900 using the new NOAA Extended Reconstructed SST v4. May differ slightly from CPC ONI.

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  67. Sel,
    Can you please tell me about 1940 BOB cyclone season. It seems that it was also strong el nino( ONI +1.86 during NDJ) with neutral iod year.

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    • 6 system during OND ,early oct system formed near w.coast,slammed mumbai with intensity of 65 knts..another pre nem system formed in central bay around 23rd oct ,moved northeast…nem commenced on 28th oct. lpa crosed tn and intensified to 60knts system in arb sea ,dissipated in open sea..again during mid november ,lpa formed in arb sea and dissipated…another weak system in central bay moved north..and last & final system formed during dec in andaman sea,again moved north as weak one.. nem rainfall was excess abt 23% , total amount 609mm

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  71. Some low level clouds can be seen here, this shows a good indication of ts in the evening

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  75. Same friend, same cook, same cooking ambience and same ingredients……but why the briyani made on this auspicious day is not matching those made on other ordinary days….

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  76. The Mascarene High strengthened to 1036 hPa on 13 th July, for the first time so far during the season, though located to the east southeast of its normal position.

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  81. @guest11k:disqus 1905 was a deficit year..one tropical storm in arb sea, & two tropical storm of 40knts in bay tat too confined above 15N

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    • Thanks.
      1905 was interesting year. Generally el nino peaks during NDJ period but in 1905 it peaked during JAS period. Also IOD was weak negative during NEM.

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      • el nino with negative IOD tend to result in good NEM. But i don’t understand why 1905 was deficit year.

    • Sel, may be iam wrong. Is that possible, if elnino at same threshold, IOD & QBO at same values, 2015 and any other year with same values, follow the same pattern of rainfall or cyclogenisis?

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      • no.. defnitely no..we r expecting the atmosphere to behave with sst forcing (enso,iod)..we never know how the atmosphere changes in sub tropics,extra tropics at tis part of year..

      • even if we want to compare,we need to start with changes in surface level temperature&pressure,upper level changes in temperature,pressure of all areas(tropics,extra tropics,sub tropics where our NEM parameters r linked)

      • yeah,i know, i m not denying with that.. still there r years wich failed to respond to ENSO conditions like last year

      • last year there was lot of uncertainty in forecast. Most of the models were expecting strong el nino barring few ones. But few peoples and models correctly predicted it. But this year its a lock thing. We all know that we are going to face moderate to strong el nino in coming months. So we can use analogs with more confidence compared to last year.

      • Guest, though the rainfall quantum was near normal for chennai for last two years, the lakes which provide the drinking water are situated in neighbouring districts. But the quantum of rains was below normal for them. We chennaites facing the problem because of the deficit in neighbouring districts. Whether any models which consider the analogs, consider this ground reality?

      • Models correctly predicted about above normal NEM in 2011. Most of the districts in TN got above normal rainfall except few ones. Rain distribution will vary and its not the mistakes of the weather models
        Similarly in Bangalore whole city got above normal rainfall last year except areas near HAL airport.
        These variations in rainfall distribution mostly depends on local factors such as topography, tree density, lakes and many other local factors. Models don’t take these local factors into account while making forecast.

      • equatorial & adj latitude areas r easily getting binded to enso forcing.. tats y the forecasters r too confident of excess rains for srilanka/s.tn all the time whenever elnino surfaces .. going up the latitude,say upto chennai latitude conditions r changing easily with different elnino years

  83. Cumulus Clouds building up and Some Cumulonimbus as well over WNW. Good sign of TS formation

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  89. Rains batter Kerala

    Vadakara 192
    Quilandy 135
    Kannur 118
    Irinjalakuda 115
    Vyttri 98
    Kozhikode 95
    Velliankara 94
    mattanur
    Taliparamba 93
    Kodungallur 92

    4% deficit wiped off during yesterday rains now at 28%

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  90. Similar to yesterday!!!
    till 2 less clouds
    after 2 becoming cloudy!!!
    chances of TS

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  94. @gokultamilselvam:disqus any idea of lead/lag relationship between MH/monsoon jets? response time ?

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