Heavy Rains to continue in North, East and North East States

Monsoonal Axis continues to run along the Himalayan foothills. Heavy to very heavy rainfall have been reported from Himachal Pradesh with Akri recording 240 mm, Uttar Pradesh’s Salempur 200 mm and Jharkhand’s Daltonganj 295 mm.

An Upper Air Circulation (UAC) persists in North West Bay of Bengal and may descend down to lower level as Low Pressure Area (LPA) in next 24 hrs. This will continue to give heavy rains along Foot hills, East and North Central India. With Western Disturbance in North India Interacting with the monsoon trough, Himachal, Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Punjab will get heavy rains. North East India will continue to get heavy rains and this will add to the flood woes in Assam. In the west coast, Kerala and Karnataka will continue to get rains.

Sadly, dry weather will continue in TN with the exception of light rains over northern part of the State.
02. Meteosat5
Chennai to see a warm day with Temperature settling close to 39 C. Suburbs and outskirts will have a chance of light rains later in the day.

Coimbatore will have a pleasant day with temperature close to 30 C with possibility of light rains.

Madurai will see maximum temperature of 36โ€“37 C with showers later in the evening.

1,736 thoughts on “Heavy Rains to continue in North, East and North East States

  1. OMG……strong Elnino conditions enriching the strength of subtropical jet stream in turn enhancing the strength in sub-tropical ridge. I am thinking that this “abnormal strong sub-tropical ridge” tearing off Tibetan high (TH)?

  2. OMG…..It looks like Skymet also going to give empty hand and ready to revise by this month end. Then I am one and only person to be with normal SWM-2015 forecast.

    Ha..ha.. I don’t want to revise my normal SWM-2015 forecast due to certain favorable parameters and stick to my normal SWM-2015 forecast.

    Article:
    Monsoon watch: Skymet may revise forecast as rains across country stand 32% below average

    Read more at: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/48106239.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

      • ha…ha…32% below average is for july only. Overall still around 94%. so no worries for me as SWM-rains are going to increase exponentially from last week july and stay active till mid-august.

  3. Today is expected to be Hot with 39’C and Thunderstroms expected to form over Vellore, Tiruvallur and S.Interior AP and Chennai receives Showers. Some places over North Chennai may receive Moderate to Heavy Rains.

  4. SWM in Chennai has stayed highly unpredictable as the factors that cause rainfall are very different from the rest of the country.

    However, there is one simpler observation a common man like me can make. The frequency of the rainfall keeps improving between June and September. The last two decent showers happened on 27th June and 9th July in Kottivakkam. Hopefully, this gap should narrow down to ten days for the next rainfall. We may be due for some rainfall activity on or before Sunday.

    This is not a scientific forecast but merely a wish to see some good rains.

      • last 2 spells (june 27-30 & july 8-13th limits) put forward by me directly and came to success. This will be 3rd one. Hope this time it will also succeed.

        Meanwhile Ramadan (18th) evening we will be having 1st spell.

      • correction Ramadan month will end this evening upon sighting of the moon. Tomorrow it will be Eid

      • Raoji, I expect no meaningfull rains, i mean >30mm, for Chennai.

        yesterday there were some little rains in the southern suburbs and places near Chengalpattu. Today is good for some TS inside city but these will not be >10mm.

        But hope your words come true.

      • Exactly, I am too not expecting more than 30 mm. It must be between 10 mm -30mm for the period 18th-20 th july (wide-spread fro 30 Km core circle). If the LPA intensifies to depression over SWM axis, then there will be chance of >30 mm on 19th july.

  5. A Joy of being a weather blogger ..A blogger’s perspective..

    Tracking Thunder storm during SWM and NEM has been one of the most fascinating experience with fellow bloggers over the last few years….I mean for the majority here. Of course there are some old faithful who have been doing the same for quite some time now..The fun, the excitement , the thrill in keeping an eye on the radar and the movement of TS can never be matched and probably i would guess that alone brings in lot of enthusiasm and the keenness to hit the blog..The adrenaline rush, the nerve-racking movements when the storm is just about to enter the “crunch areas” .or the ‘Zone” is well and truly an awesome feel.

    Every blogger yearns for that moment to happen.”.The storm to track and head towards his area with out getting disorganized..hoping it doesn’t dissipate., maintains intensity..wants the RR to hit the roof..wants his rain gauge to fill fast, shatter old records…
    Does it happen the way we want it to happen?? The answer is a clear “No”.If it is to happen the way we want, what’s the fun in being here ..The ecstasy or the agony are all part of the journey..There has be that suspense, The “X” factor if I could call it..Understanding the “X” factor will pave way for reading the alphabets of weather clearly..
    Law of averages exists in every sphere of life..Yes, it does..So why should weather and rains be an exception…it follows that path of glorious uncertainties every now and then..
    The fun of being a blogger just not ends here., not just with tracking rains …There is more to it..To enjoy each other’s company, share views, to engage in an healthy debate, a light banter or two..a light hearted humour, to enrich ones language, the subject and many more..

    In all fairness, the thunderstorms season is yet to kick start this season in an meaningful manner .Could sense a felling of bloggers being despondent.. We got to be patient here..Of course, there is no other choice as nature can never be bargained or bought..

    Let’s enjoy, let’s take the positives whatever mother nature blesses us with..

    • Shiva, It looks you back to normal form ๐Ÿ™‚ Keep rocking (means writing with good timely phrases ๐Ÿ™‚

    • super, getting dejected for not getting rains is not at all fair, one should always remember,
      mother nature as i always call, only weather as some says,(what ever the name one attribute is not all matter), will not act as per our whims and wishes, let us go it way, and enjoy what ever mother nature gives us

    • we cannot buy nature, but we only bought the global warming, its indirect sales of mother nature

    • Very positive post. I was crestfallen after seeing day before yesterday’s ts literally curving towards North, after an hour’s drama of sound and light. It was right above our heads until then. Anyway, let’s stay positive and wait for our chances

      • Surya, last four years starting from 2011 we have had excellent SWM TS Season. Was either normal or above normal. 2011 was probably the best we have ever had. Almost 840 mm . A rare event. May be law of averages working this time around after 4 successive good years. No other go. Just got to keep looking at the sky for the time being..

  6. The 850 hPa wind vector anomaly conditions for the week ending 14th July , shows the anomalous irregular connected anticyclonic circulations extending all across the Indian Sub-continent , an indication of weak monsoonal circulation. Also, the Typhoons in west Pacific have directed a good share of cross equatorial flows meridionally from southern Indian Ocean towards their basin ….

  7. Rainfall activity is expected to be above normal in the north and most parts of eastern and northeastern India till the end of July, This season, so far, 67% of the countryโ€™s area has received normal rainfall, 21% has received deficient rainfall and 12% has received excess rainfall.
    The regions with the highest rain deficits are Gujarat, Saurashtra, central Maharashtra, Marathwada, coastal and north interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Kerala. The northeastern states of Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura are also experiencing deficient rainfall.
    The North-East, foothills of the Himalayas and parts of central India will continue to experience good rainfall for the next 12-15 days, according to an extended range prediction by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. IMD adds that in the beginning of August, rainfall is likely to increase over central parts of the country.
    http://www.livemint.com/Politics/dvRSUza5nHhVTOEw8AAfQP/Monsoon-6-below-normal-so-far-IMD.html

  8. Flash….Core Chennai hybrid VS-TS rainfall alert….. between July18th-July 20th:

    Reason for rainfall:
    (1) As strong indications are evolving LPA/D formation along SWM-axis at higher latitude and its movement will be at the same longitude of Chennai between July 18th-20th. So there will be high chances of dry NW-winds to turn to moisture filled SW-winds between July 18th-20th. As a result of this SWM-axis oriented LPA pull effect, more moisture incursion from west-coast towards Core Chennai (30 km circle) will take place between 18th july and 20th july.

    (2) The intensity of these winds will be peaked on July 19th with the perfect alignment of this LPA with Chennai longitude, which could enhance the SWM-wind strength over Chennai due to pull effect.

    Rainfall quantity:
    Core Chennai will witness good wide-spread rainfall between 18th July and 20th July. The rainfall intensity will be peaked on 19th July. Most places will receive 10-30 mm rainfall if the LPA doesn’t intensify. If the LPA intensifies to depression then few places will receive more than 30 mm rainfall.

    Rainfall timing:
    Late afternoon to late-night.

    1st rain-spell:
    First spell might occur on Eid-al-Fitr evening (most probably on 18th July) between late afternoon and late night.

    Note:
    This is my 3rd direct forecast (June 27-30 and July 8-13 are 2 previous successful forecasts) for core Chennai. Hope it will happen ๐Ÿ™‚

    • July last week to mid-august spells will be bountiful for river Krishna and Godavari basins. SWM completing its duty in hurry manner over N/NW/NE India now due to strengthening Elnino (effecting STR & TH).

      The real game will start for west-coast, peninsular & central India from July last week onwards. Still SWM-game is in control.

  9. Flash…..main wind-shear is coming down in latitude (indicated in black circle). This is early indication of the rainfall pattern to shift more southerly o normal in coming days. So east-central, central, peninsular India and west-coast will be benefited from the coming SWM-spells.

  10. BREAKING NEWS:

    http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/

    IRICS( International research institute for Climate and Society) latest long range forecast is out and it agrees with ECMWF long range outlook.

    It is expecting above normal rainfall for MH, Gujarat and MP during NEM.( may be because of strong cyclones crossing Gujarat or MH)

    Above normal rainfall for North India during SON period.( because of strong WDs)

    Above normal rainfall for Kerala during SON season. ( cyclogenesis shifting to AS instead of BOB)

    Normal rainfall for TN and above normal for SL during NEM.

    Above normal rainfall for west coast during NEM.

    So one thing is clear is that Arabian sea will be very active this time. Lets hope cyclogenesis takes place near Kerala coast and not in Central Arabian.

    • Bad.. below normal forecast for entire andaman adj Indonesia Thailand coasts which will spill over to bob too ๐Ÿ˜ฆ sTN n srilanka should get normal n above rains though

    • If cyclogenesis shifts to Central Arabian sea then it can affect upcoming NEM negatively. For TN to get above normal rainfall cyclogenesis has to take place in Laccadive sea.

  11. Flash…alert…I am again reemphasizing that ONI-index increase or WWB creation is not the complete 100% reflection of Elnino. According to me still “super elnino” is far away due to combination of certain factors

    One factor:
    Still southward extension of warm-tongue till south American coast (Peru & Chile coasts) till today. If this area doesn’t warm like 1997 style then it will offset the “super Elnino” evolution mechanism through trade wind mechanism.

    2015-july-SST: http://s14.postimg.org/t25l0qgfl/anomnight_7_16_2015.gif
    1997-july-SST: http://s2.postimg.org/dmgs57lm1/anomnight_7_19_1997.gif

  12. Flash…..SWM-withdrawal alert…We need to be surprised if there any SWM-rains over N/NW India & Pakistan after mid-august. SWM withdrawal mechanism will be initiated so soon after mid-august.

    Rainfall may happen due to WD-related mechanism over these areas.

    Main reason:
    Strengthening of Elnino coupling with absence of proper Tibetan high (TH) will pave the way for free ride of the sub-tropical jet stream (in turn sub-tropical ridge) and setting the stage for ACC over NW India and adjoining Pakistan by September 1st week or earlier.

    • Know the important consequences of subtropical ridge (STR) from wiki. For more information refer the link.

      (1) The ENSO climate cycle can displace the northern hemisphere subtropical ridge, with La Niรฑas allowing for a more northerly axis for the ridge, while El Niรฑos show flatter, more southerly ridges.

      (2) The change of the ridge position during ENSO cycles changes tracks of tropical cyclones that form around their equatorward and western peripheries.

      (3) As the subtropical ridge varies in position and strength, it can enhance or depress monsoon regimes around their low-latitude periphery.

      STR-wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subtropical_ridge

  13. those regions are guarded by western disturbances (WDs) related rainfall, which IMD will consider as SWM-rains if fell before September 30th.

  14. how one could easily forget tis july.. look at tis chart ,it’s coinciding with last week heat wave conditions

    • anomalous upper level convergence in response to elnino conditions hav created lower level divergence so tis led to cloudfree skies all over

  15. TAMIL NADU DAILY RAINFALL

    THE CHIEF AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL RECORDED IN

    CENTIMETERS AT 0830 HOURS IST ON

    17-07-2015

    Kvk kattukuppam arg (Kancheepuram Dist)

    3

    Chinnakalar (Coimbatore Dist), Chengalpattu (Kancheepuram Dist), Devala (Nilgiris Dist), Valparai pto (Coimbatore Dist), Mahabalipuram (Kancheepuram Dist), Rasipuram (Namakkal Dist)

    2 each

    Devakottai (Sivaganga Dist), Arantangi (Pudukkottai Dist), Kaveripakkam (Vellore Dist), K.m.koil (Cuddalore Dist), Valparai taluk office (Coimbatore Dist), Kancheepuram (Kancheepuram Dist), Karaikudi (Sivaganga Dist), Polur (Tiruvannamalai Dist), Tondi (Ramanathapuram Dist), Vandavasi (Tiruvannamalai Dist)

    1 each
    Home

  16. When Arabian sea is expected to be active in SWM, its dormant! Whereas its forecasted to be active in NEM! One more cyclone in Arabian sea this October will replicate 2014 scenario for TN. Hope NEM fails forecasters as like this SWM. (Note: Forecasters expected below normal rains in N India this monsoon!)

  17. SWM will turn vigorous over west coast and east and central India during late july and early august period.

  18. jamstec’s SINTEX model performs below par in IOD forecast but they hav excellent records in predicting ENSO,, they are expecting 2016 to b a lanina year,obviously it shld b a LANINA year

      • last year i read in one of the column where top experts used to publicize their research works.. one of the researcher was expecting one of the strongest LA NINA event in the history happening before 2018 so it maybe the following year 2016/2017 as strong lanina always a predecessor of strong NINO.. strong 1997 nino followed 98 strong NINA, 82 followed by 83 nina,87 nino followed by strong nina in 1988

      • No. Their June forecast was showing positive iod during JJ period. Till now POAMA has been good regarding positive iod forecast.

  19. IMD

    37.9ยฐC

    Trend(Last 5 Minute) : -5.52ยฐC/hr

    Max.(Since 8:30AM) : 38.5ยฐC

    Min.(Since 8:30AM) :31.2

    • There looks two or three factors that causes these Chennai VS rains.,
      SWM moisture, the more then the chances are high and widespread.

      Local heating that creates low pressure zone locally pulling more moisture to the area. and also this heating is the main reason for the the sea breeze,?
      The sea breeze acts as barrier makes the moisture to raise up and cool , aids convection.

      • Perfect! Heating creates a local lpa and attracts the sea breeze .. (thermal & pressure gradient).. tis sea breeze is a solenoidal circulation, Creates a convergence and cause rains

  20. Bangalore 3.00pm, Formation of Rain bearing, dark clouds., W to SE., Heavy wind drifting away to Hosur side.. Few rain drops at Sarjapur side at the moment…

  21. IMD:
    34.4ยฐC
    Trend(Last 5 Minute) : -24.48ยฐC/hr
    Max.(Since 8:30AM) : 38.8ยฐC
    Min.(Since 8:30AM) : 31.2ยฐC

  22. Rainfall in Outskirts of Chennai on 17.07.2015
    ===================================
    in mm

    Katupakkam (near Guduvancherry) – 26
    Acharapakkam (near Melmaruvathur) – 23
    Chengalpattu – 21
    Mahabalipuram – 19
    Nemili (near Arakonnam) – 12
    Thiruporur (near Kelambakkam) – 9
    Kunnathur (near Mahabalipuram) – 5
    Chithamur (near Melmaruvathur) – 5
    Sriperumbudur – 5
    Thirukalukundram (near Chengalpet) – 5
    Tiruttani – 5

  23. Two days back temp was just 35-36 from Chennai to Vellore. Yet an Intense TS came and went to Ponneri.

  24. Very Windy..looks like T.S formed excatly above Mogappair West..showers now..SOuth of Mogappair west to get rains soon(may be tambaram)

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