Monsoonal precipitation continues to pound all along the Himalayan foothills, as the Monsoon Trough at mean sea level lies along that Topography. This synoptic scale system is seen with a solid rain making trough located across the Sub-Himalayan and Gangetic West Bengal regions. This would lead to heavy rains in the region along with parts of North eastern states and parts of north central India. During the same time, the west coast region, especially Kerala and costal Karnataka will also see heavy rains. An upper air cyclonic circulation, that set up cloudy conditions for TN would become less significant in the next 24 hours.
Chennai to see a cloudy day. The City will see a maximum temperature around 36 – 37 C with a chance of rain.
Coimbatore will be cloudy and overcast with temperature maximum of about 30-31 C.
Madurai to see a partly cloudy sky with a maximum temperature of 38–39 C.
Where is everybody?
See the radar
It’s absolutely clear
Yes, atleast we don’t get disappointed
Is the radar working btw – it seems to have cleared with no signs of any precipitation.
yes working that is the reality go out and see the sky not even a single cloud is seen
Yaar Asad am not there in chennai man – the sky is clear here too . We are preparing for eid doh.
oh sorry you are in saudi right
Yes – what happened to the UAC – Ameen was harping on – that there will be deluge – nothing happened – with only some sprinkles .
Ameen daily he will predict deluge he is still young . Hopefully we get rains next week.
I like the passion in him – he is always passionate about rains and analyse things very professionally for his age. We have to learn a lot from him .
Yes according to him we are weak students of this blog
for you tmrw will be eid right?
Isn’t is supposed to be declared after sighting of the moon?
Mostly tmrw
As last month was 30 days and as per the lunar calendar no two months have 30 days . So we are expecting the eid to fall on friday.
Hope it is on friday – it is saturday in india right. Could not make it to india this time – may be it will rain on Eid day there .
The last time it rained on eid day was in 2005 I think
Will it happened after ten years again? What is your prediction?
I think rao predicted some rains on eid day . Hope it comes true .Waiting for his analysis to be posted here . He seems to be quite positive. Cannot find pj – lately. Is he out of town ?
Yes rao is confident . PJ might be busy
Yes was in Anjuman for eid prayers that time and – we had tough time with the pandal arrangement that day.
Two hours before I saw Mecca namaz. Awesome dua by sheikh Sudais
You should come in ramadhan to Makkah to enjoy your prayers – was there for three years. Parents visited during that period and they enjoyed and were so happy – they said it is the best part of our life.
Will try in sha allah
Went once in 97 or 98 during ramadan
You went to Mecca?
wow…2005 year from kea 🙂
Yes, he is too technical for his age, but goes overboard when predicting rains.
Can you post here as soon as eid is declared in Saudi?
No problem but it will be 2nite – the announcement .
Ok even my relatives are there I will also come to know if it is announced
It is time for you to have ur sahar – have you finished ?
Sahar over. Infact fajr finished too just now
OMG…what’s happening along gangetic plains? It looks river Ganges will be in spate so soon. Very dangerous flood situation (historical floods) may arise all along the plains.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=ir&zoom=&time=
People at hilly areas must take utmost care especially at Uttarakhand due to possible flash-flood situation.
The power of the jet stream!
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=100.45,31.33,1719
without proper establishment of Tibetan high, SWM are rocking as against odd forecasts. This good rainfall event will shift towards west-coast and peninsular India starting from August (even from july last week).
Most parts of Telangana & AP states received heavy rains during last 2 days, which given high relief for the farmers.
What is the status of SWM? Is it still in deficit?
yes, still just below normal (not in deficits, means still above 96%)
Overall rainfall 5% below normal as of 14th July.
oh..but it will recover back to above 96% by the end of this week due to good rain-spells.
El Nino to hit 92% long period rain forecast by -9%: IMD
Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/el-nino-to-hit-92-long-period-rain-forecast-by-+-9-imd_1971701.html?utm_source=ref_article
why they are talking about again 92% even when Elnino strengthening without any +ve IOD? They reduced from 93% to 88%. Now they are speaking about 92%?
Oh great it is really a beautiful place to pray
Monsoon rain in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana brings cheers to farmers –
See more at: http://www.skymetweather.com/content/weather-news-and-analysis/monsoon-rain-in-andhra-pradesh-telangana-brings-cheers-to-farmers/#sthash.N0Pderg3.dpuf
Heavy rain alert for AP & Telangana states:
Today there will be high chances fro wide-spread heavy rains over most parts of these states. Some places even will record heavy to very heavy rains.
Yapo than mazhai varum chidambaram & delta
Last 4 days 38 – 40 c next summer
Good morning!!!
A clear radar…lets look forward towards evening ts
Flash…Chennai rain alert:
Rains are guaranteed for “core Chennai” between july 18th & 21st. Sporadic rains may spread before and after this time limit. I will give complete details later of the day.
Courtesy:
————-
Janis McJanisCloud Enthusiasts :-)))
https://scontent-cdg2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xft1/v/t1.0-9/11742904_1148721345144947_7159691886358851294_n.jpg?oh=01e855723bd24ed25b1007d48cead44b&oe=564F0DCA
Wow !!!
Extrodinary !!!
Few sprinklers in the wee hours I suppose here in A.N.West..
Batsman R.G. Wirelessman is in a state of Hypersomnia.. Only a loud thunder I guess can wake him up ..Even the mild , very mild sprinklers have failed to wake him up over night..
His bat is almost dropping from his hands and seems to be disinterested to put bat on ball..
Even a few steps down the track would show that he is keen on getting of the mark..
That few steps (pretensions) at least would be enough to see some decimals like 0.2 or 0.5 etc..
Sad, not to be…
Need some drastic measures to cheer him up and tell him precisely the job he has got to do..
Off course, what can he do when the bowler himself has lost interest in bowling to him…
Bowler..exclaims..what can I do!! The condition are not conducive for me to roll my arm over..
The Test match..Goes on….
Wow super..
Lol
Did the match even start? Lol.
Yes..it did start after the coin toss within the field of play..
I thought the test match was called off citing negative inclement weather.
No way calling of the test match..This test is being played under a new format..
Just pour some water on him ….
Awesome radar
I visit anjuman amd new college for weddings
1998 to 2010
Inshallah ..kea can u join this Eid with me @Anjuman
Which year was it? I used to visit the hostels when I was small
Flash….expecting SOI to stabilise for next 3-4 days. Thereafter SOI will increase for many days, which can result very active SWM conditions country wide (please note that already IOD is in increasing trend along with MJO’s Western Hemisphere entry). Especially west-coast and peninsular India will be benefited more from july last week onwards (pl note that models are not indicating any thing great).
SOI won’t increase anymore imo, it would only stabilise
It looks like the KWS is offline.
For us it’s working. How?
It has been last updated at 6.29 am?
Also the camera is dark.
Oh, it’s just back online!
First half of july turned out to b one of the worst for w.coast and peninsular india ..north,north central,East& East central had got excess rains to some extent.. funny thing is tat the areas which are prone to get bounded with drought status during elnino has got decent rains but w.coast is trailing by a huge margin http://s29.postimg.org/rosbsm8zr/sasia_rfe_rms_7day_sas_anom.gif
i think the July will ensure that the SWM ends with the deficit
Yeah july decides the status to big extent but august holds the key for one last & final chance ..lets see
True. Looks like the Cauvery catchment areas are also running into deficit. Not looking good for TN farmers
If poor monsoon continues in W coast, strained relations between TN and Karnataka will become worse and Cauvery River Water sharing issue will once again take centre stage.
avanga edukalanalum, nama vituduvoma
Though there is less rains, The combined storage in KN reservoirs stands at 363 tmc as on 15th July, which is almost double than the storage levels of last year 15th July (190 tmc).
Click to access RL.pdf
JMA 3 month ensemble forecast wich came out yesterday shows the development of positive iod in indian ocean but no proper revival of rains for aug/sep.. only october getting active with the arrival of strong mjo
Today its going to be a scorching day for central and south interior tamilnadu
Kolkata 68mm
NASA issues landslide warning for the areas along the foothills of himalaya
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/publications_dir/landslide_instant_2.html
Chennai’s Air Pollution at Record High, Worse Than Delhi
With the rains staying away, air quality in Chennai is getting worse every day.
http://m.ndtv.com/chennai-news/chennais-air-pollution-at-record-high-worse-than-delhi-781904
Is there any chance to cross 40 c in chennai from now onwards.?
I believe no
Huge cloud mass with high intensity rains at Jharkand, lucknow, chattisgarh..Check the cloud density over there..
ONI index peaked around +2.5 during NDJ period of 1877.
QBO was constant around +10 during OND in 1877.
Positive iod emerged in August and peaked in September. It was neutral during JJ period.
Forecast for 2015.
ONI will peak around +2.5 during NDJ period.
QBo will be constant around +10 during OND.
Positive IOD may emerge in August and may peak in September. It was neutral during June and July.
Can someone provide the data for NEM and BOB cyclones of 1877
what happened to 1914 analog?
In 1914 IOD stayed neutral throughout the year but in 1877 IOD was neutral till July( similar to this year) and turned positive in August and peaked in September. As per IOD forecast for this year, positive IOD may emerge in August and peak in september. 1877 is very similar to this year.
So can you provide me the data for 1877 NEM and Bob cyclones season.
posted
Thanks.
data says only one system formed during 1877 nem.. a depression formed in central bay around nov 3rd and made landfall in myanmar
What about NEM.
no idea of rainfall . let me check
current temp is 5C higher than yesterday same time. We might settle around 37-38 think
38 sureshot
Yes
Today is very windy compare to last few days .. Hereafter wards we can see winds becoming heavier during day time..( typical mid-july winds)
Chennai rainfall from uac
14.06.2014- 0.3 mm
15.06.2014- 0.6mm
16.06.2014- 0.3mm
Totally – 1.2 mm
Kea team lose
….pj team won won won
lol
Mouli.. Yesterday Pondhichery temperature was 35.6..
.u said 38.6
Did you get to see his today’s prediction?
why pinpoint 1 person? Even I got it wrong.
I expected 1 mm yesterday, but this UAC total rain has been only 1 mm over 3 days
I’m not pin pointing him..just informing.
…
My place didnt even get that 1 mm.. 😦
U expect 1mm from this uac…not a day
Atchu Imd has changed in 8.30am update. It was 38.6 in 1730 update yesterday
Ok
U must check it when I posted. Imd will change sometimes in 8.30am update
ok mouli…sorry
Guest11K,
Perfect analysis by comparing 2 similar years of 1877 and 2015. Both the years had similar ENSO and similar IOD values till date.
If IOD set in August and peak in September, then that itself is enough for good NEM. Also NAO forecast likely to be Neutral, hence the impact will not be there from that North Atlantic Ocean.
So great NEM ahead…..
In theory!
Thanks Parthasri. Need to get data for 1877 NEM.
i am trying…
Problem started when the original name Priya was changed to Ashooba…. It came late by one year and now it is the topic of discussion for success/failure of the SWM.
What is in a name ?
Guest 11k chennai got
1877
Jan – 0.3
Feb – 0.0
Mar – 0.8
Apr – 0.0
May – 0.0
Jun – 59.9
Jul – 31.0
Aug – 63.2
Sep – 80.0
Oct – 217.4
Nov – 539.8
Dec – 148.8
Total for the year Chennai got 1141.20 mm but NEM was bumper with 906 mm
Thanks.
source?
Thats secret :p
IMD
IMD.
PJ,
I want data for few more years.
yes i will put the years of awesome NEM
Can you give me data for 1888, 1896,1902, 1940
PJ,
No need to put up the full year data. Just put up if the NEM was successful or not in the following years(1888, 1896, 1902, 1940)
IOD values 1877
1877 1 -0.103607
1877 2 0.56595
1877 3 0.32754
1877 4 -0.0592909
1877 5 -0.440715
1877 6 -0.258658
1877 7 -0.23245
1877 8 0.560384
1877 9 0.948531
1877 10 0.840308
1877 11 0.843696
1877 12 0.401561
Positive IOD in NEM 1877!
I’m expecting the same this time
Till date IOD values are similar to 1877. Need to see IOD values for August and September.
If IOD stays neutral in coming months, then it will be similar to 1914( got 864 mm during NEM)
If IOD turns positive in August and stays strong positive in NEM season, then it will be similar to 1877( got 904 mm in NEM)
one of the worst famine year for entire country as elnino coincided with swm
Yes SWM for Chennai in 1877 looks pathetic
Great news!
1876-1878 was one of the worst famine in Indian history.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_of_1876%E2%80%9378
Atchu look at this pondy 38.6 reported in imd evening report yesterday.
Mouli seems to be listening to FM radio..
Ha ha :p
That was yesterday.
@guest11k,
One thing i found out is that, 1877 SWM was a failure, we had drought.
But no info on NEM. I am searching again.
partha, dataman has got everything and he had posted already
I saw that, but he will not share the link, hence i am searching.
Hope your search does not end up in the way like our search (Me and GTS) of your home 😉 😉
Then 2015 wouldn’t repeat 1877!
tropics precip can be well related with tropics sst but sub tropics/extra tropical system in both the hemisphere also influence us indirectly.. so it is not an easy thing to repeat as it is
Its Ok. Got the data for 1877 from PJ. NEM was excess in 1877( got 904 mm).
Good chance of hybrid VS-TS! over chennai as there is bright sunshine
upto 1990 a place in tn (tiruvannamalai dist ) has got 710 mm in a day which was highest 24 hr record in tn can any one guess??
gingee?
nope many will be surprised to know its oldername n history attached 🙂
i forgot its name,couldnt recollect..but i hav read in one of the research paper
vandavasi?
yes battle of wandiwash
old british name,wandiwash
i was trying for tis one.. let see wat jon says
ok sel
exactly 🙂 wandiwash aug 5 1965
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Wandiwash
yes will be nice if history gets repeated.
yes Vandavasi.
i have that report Jon.
surprising in early aug 71 cm som synoptic condition it seems
kutti tendul bowling at nets in lords
http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci/content/video_audio/898987.html
Jon, i have to update for more years. this list will be updated.
82 cm at Ketti (Nilgris dt) on November 10, 2009 (Cyclone Phyaan)
71 cm at Vandavasi (Thiruvannamalai dt) on August 5, 1965
66 cm at Orathanadu (Thanjavur dt) on November 27, 2008 (Cyclone Nisha)
53 cm at Thanjavur on November 27, 2008 (Cyclone Nisha)
57.2 cm at Cuddalore on May 18, 1943
56 cm at Avalanchi (Nilgris dt) on June 23, 2007
54 cm at Mahabalipuram (Kanchipuram dt) on November 20, 1970
52 cm at Aanamalai (Coimbatore dt) on November 20,1959
51 cm at Upper Bhavani (Nilgris dt) on June 17, 2007
51 cm at Mandapam (Ramanathapuram dt) on April 4, 2005
50 cm at Palaviduthi (Tiruchirapalli dt) on October 31, 1981
48 cm at Papanasam (Thanjavur dt) on Novemebr 7, 1917
48 cm at Upper Bhavani (Nilgris dt) on June 23, 2007
48 cm at Karaikal (Puducherry) on November 15, 1991
46 cm at Avalanchi (Nilgris dt) on June 17, 2007
45 cm at Nungambakkam (Chennai) on November 25, 1976
45 cm at Kodanad (Nilgris dt) on November 15, 1992
42.7 cm at Cuddalore on December 12, 1931
42 cm at Nungambakkam (Chennai)on October 27, 2005 (Deep Depression 04B)
42 cm at Vedaranniyam on November 27, 2008 (Cyclone Nisha)
42 cm at Chinnakallar (Coimbatore dt) on June 23, 2007
40.3 cm at Nagapattinam on December 5, 1963
http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/2009/11/highest-24-hours-rainfall.html
source?
secret frm research papers
nice pj
chennai 55cm 1846 21 oct
finding all my sources. Jon, hard work keep it on. But finding it first is difficult.
Orathanadu record is broken by ketti.
but i feel orathanadu rains are more severe as it continued for the second day with another 33cm of rains.
Mind blowing figures
yeah tats the difference between plains and hill station..orathanadu shld top the list
it continued for more than 3 days. In total it got 1280 mm in 4 days.
equal to chennai annual rainfall.
massive!
Ya, even Thanjavur got more than 100cms in just 4 days!
If same rains happens in a city like Chennai with 10Million population, it would be dreadful.
chennai would come to standstill even with 6cm rains.
but no one here complains why it rained so long.
we badly need rains
OMG massive rains in Jharkhand
Daltonganj – 295 mm
Ketti’s Rainfall was also special.
http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/2013/07/wettest-24hr-rainfall-day-in-tamil-nadu.html
What is Atlantic multidecadel oscillation?
Hot and humid in Cheyyur. Some low clouds trying to form
Updated list….. Pls see if any thing missing…..
Weather terms
By
Ameenbijli (kea weather)
NEM – Northeast monsoon
SWM – Southwest monsoon
MJO – Madden Julian oscillation
SOI – Southern oscillation index
QBO – Qusai bennial oscillation
IOD – Indian ocean dipole
NAO- North atlantic oscillation
AO- Atlantic oscillation
PDO- Pacific decadal oscillation
EKW- Equatorial kelvin wave
ERW- Equatorial Roosby wave
CEW- Cross Equatorial winds.
AMO- Atlantic multidecadel oscillation
ONI- Oceanic nino index
MISO- Monsoon intrasesonal oscillation
ERC- Eyewall replacement cycle.
TEJ- Tropical easterly jet
TUTT- Tropical Upper tropospheric trough
MRG- Mixed rossby gravity wave
TS- Thunder storm
LWD- Line of wind discontinuity
NET – Naked eye technology
CB- cloud burst
CTT- Cloud top temperature
SST- Sea surface temperature
WWB- Westerly wind burst
OLR – Out going longwave radiation.
ENSO- Elnino southern oscillation
WD- Western disturbance
MSLP- Mean sea level pressure
A.S.L- Above mean sea level
ITCZ- Inter tropical convergence zone
OTCZ- Oceanic tropical convergence zone
SPCZ- Southern pacific convergence zone
BOB- Bay of Bengal
ARB- Arabian sea
WP- Western pacific
IO- Indian ocean
GOM- Gulf of mannar
NTN- North tamil nadu
SAP- South Andhra Pradesh
NAP- North Andhra Pradesh
KR- kerala
KTK- Karnataka
CHN- Chennai
BNG- banglore
LLCC- Low level cyclonic circulation
HP- High pressure
UAC- Upper air circulation
TOLP- Trough of Low pressure
LPA- Low pressure area
WML- Well marked low pressure
D- Depression
DD- Deep depression
CS- Cyclonic storm
SCS- Severe cyclonic storm
VSCS- Very severe cyclonic
storm
ESCS- Extremely severe cyclonic storm
SUCS- Super cyclonic storm
STS- Severe tropical storm
MTC- Maritime continent
TY- Typhoon
MB- Millibars
HPA- Hectopascal
TC- Tropical cyclone.
TCHP- Tropical cyclone heat potential
LD- Land Depression
TPW- Total precipitable water
TCW- Total cloud water.
WPD – Wind power density
TH- Tibeitan high
SH -Siberian high
MH- Mascren high.
GFS- Global forecasting system
ECMWF – European centre for medium range weather forecasts
KWS – kea weather station
AWS-Automatic weather station
ARG- Automatic Rain gauge
RG- Rain gauge
RH- Relative Humidity
TEMP- Temperature
VVP- Volume velocity processing
DBZ- Decibles related to Z
HW – Heat wave
EW- Easterly wave
SFC- Surface level
N- North
S- South
E- East
W- West
NE- North East
NW- North West
SE- South East
SW- South West
IMD- india meteorological department
RMC- Regional meteorological department.
RSMC- Regional specialized meteorological centre
ACWC- Area cyclone warning centre.
SSHS- Saffir simphson hurricane scale
JMA- Japan meteorological agency
TMD- Thailand meteorological department
BOM- Beauro of meteorology
DWR- Doppler weather radar
CDR- Cyclone detection radar
ISOL- Isolated
SCT- Scattered
FWS- Fairly widespread
WS- Widespread
RF- Rainfall
wat is the use? you r not showing interest in learning technical stuff.
I will slowly slowly learn after compailing everything
okay.tats good
remove NET and KWS!!
He is still omitting NDR from the list
LLCC – Lower Level Circulation Center.
Where is BRT?
will today highs touch 38*?
IMD
Ponneri – 3cm
spot on! blogger from ponneri was expecting 3-4cm
Yes bharath from ponneri expected 3cm
Thanks.
1 blogger predicted 3 cm for nunga on 9th. We got it
oh. who was tat?
Optimisticgreen
oh, belated congrats optimistic green!!
he hasn’t blogged since that day
u should have credited him. Made his comment keatured. U keature Ameen;s comment why not optimistic green.
optimistic green.
around 2 pm he said we will get it when there was no signs of rain
tats amazing!!
Ehsan maybe u forgot. we predicted that rains in previous evening for Deccan for1st time we predicted Rains for Chennai in heading.
Please tell him to forecast often. Lets see how he performs.
please invite him and tell him to forecast more with reasoning.
Lol
Dreams do become true sometimes!
Thanks selvan.
Happy my expectation was correct.
hmm sorry i forgot ur name. anyway tats cool
No problem,
Besides I am new here and that happens (forgeting names).
u mean its raining in Ponneri
Yesterday’s rain.
oh good
it is not a meteorological term
UAC coming very close to CTN coast on 23rd July.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hgfs_500wind.htm
we (including PJ) have stopped following UAC’s
I’m still following
no. i will follow but wont put anything in kea blog.
Why so PJ. Its a sheer joy following any such weather phenomenon and learning from these
Krish. Ehsan has sadistic attitude when it comes to rains for chennai
Ha ha, this is a new form of sadism, lol.
He may be hoping that it works on the other way, like negative topic 🙂
No he never understands the concepts and then he comes and posts in negative way. thats a sadist.
He always highlights the failures, but never shows the same when we get it right. Thats not fair.
and that’s why upcoming UAC near TN coast will give good rainfall to Chennai :p
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hGFSrain.htm
Good initiative
Marupadiyum mudalairuthaa?
Po paa… It will come near us n then Buss… Its like our favourite dish is being served in front of us and at the last moment someone else have that:-(
From where?
if u are well aware, then its okay
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/144hgfs_500wind.htm
Weak winds again!
and elongated.
Yesterday it was a big failure for me.. And i don’t know why did kea sir keatured my comment….
There is no.pass or fail.in weather forecasting
Right Jeetu.
Failures are part n parcel in all fields only success ratio matters…
we are all learning
nothing wrong. Not an failure.
Keep posting. We can never master weather.
Yes. …
Ehsan pounding.
Pounding your forecast?
yes. not even once he commented when it is correct. So saddistic.
That’s a real keatured one
Jeetu =heetu
Because he loves heat
Venam pa chellam….
Chennai will get rain today , Since no one predicts.
its one of the models. shoul we name it as NOP (No one predicts).
Then jeetu’s BRT?
When will Skymet reduce the forecast for SWM rains? July has been terrible till now.
June – Skymet
July – IMD
its 1-1 now, 2 more rounds to go
July is not over.
it will be over in 2 weeks
Half month
Today’s moisture availability @ chennai @5%30hrs
500hpa- 89% winds – Westerly
700hpa -99% winds – WNWly
850hpa- 68% winds – Westerly
I was observing the wind direction for the past 10 days. from morning till afternoon the wind blows from NW or WNW upto 1.00 PM, but after that the wind start blowing from SE,
on 10th July when it rained in Tambaram the wind direction was NW hence we got more rains. after that it started to blow from SE, due to this no rains. What is the reason for this change in wind direction
Typhoon nangka….as seen from space
In 1996 i think a island in la reunion recorded 1850mm of rainfall in 24hrs due to cyclone
1,825 mm (71.9 in); Cilaos, Réunion, 7–8 January 1966, during tropical cyclone Denise
Is chinnakallar in Tn is the 3rd wettest place in India?
no why. its the 1st in Tamil NAdu
Then cherra?
1st in India? Then mawsynram and cherra?
I think 1st in TN
It is but…question is India wise
Understand
1st in TN. In 2007 it got over 9000 mm.
India wise is it 3rd?
no. not even in top 20
Chinnakallar average is only around 5000 mm. It does not come even in top 20.
Some travel websites ranked it no.3
why search there.
For monsoon destinations
I want 1850mm of rainfall in 24hrs in chennai
we ll die ..its ok for u
1850 or 18.50… lol
Day dreaming is Injurious to health:-)
Then There Will Be No Kea Blog !!!
And We Will Not Be There !!!
Chennai Pop 80%–The weather channel
Get keatured and be in featured comment
***conditions apply****
100% failure yesterday 😦
IMD 37.3
37.5 what is the target?
38 ?
Coming NEM season cyclogenesis will be happening in SC/SE Arabian sea and near Kerala coast. BOB may stay quiet this time. TN will get regular easterlies.
That does not sound positive for NEM
Cyclone Phyan which formed in Arabian sea gave more than 400mm to Chennai.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Phyan
it was a remannt of bay system..
Ok. But this time all the cyclogenesis will be happening in Arabian Sea and BOB will stay quiet.
Sel,
In which direction cyclone will move if the HPA is located in South Odisha or Central India.
My guess is it will move in W.
not necessarily …
For cyclone to hit TN, HPA should be located near North BOB and Myanmar and not Central India. am i right..?
it depends on the intensity of the system , size,shape of the ridge..moreover external influences, place where system getting placed matters a lot
Suppose genesis location is near Kerala coast and strong HPA is present over Central India.
In which direction system will move.
ridge axis on central india ?
Yes.
if system falls over southerly quadrant of ridge(westerly flow) it may move w or w-nw.. northwest if it is sw quadrant… still it depends on the size and shape of ridge extension
Ehsan thats an insulting comment to verify my sources. I am proud to say that no one in India or
even world know wettest places than me. Learn 1st then come to debate.
Dont jump in.
I have even updated world Top wettest places. For which even c.burt, a renowned weather author from WU thanked me and follows my blog. Even NOAA officials ask me rainfall data of Hulikal etc.
Here is the list – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/2013/09/puerto-lopez-in-columbia-new-wettest.html
I thought u said Chinnakallur was wettest in India. Maybe I read it wrong.
Fascinating Data points…I am packing my bags to visit Colombia!
+1
what happened to your kea monsoon visit?
Where is the rains?
Jeet here is my list. All India.
http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/2012/04/places-which-gets-5000-mm-rainfall-in.html
Thanks ji
What is the highest temp recorded in Europe?
40+
50c in Spain Aug 4th 1881.?
How abt highest in Chennai???
How about South Pole? Can anyone guess?
9.9 °F
The highest temperature ever recorded at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station was −12.3 °C (9.9 °F) on December 25, 2011, and the lowest was −82.8 °C (−117.0 °F) on June 23, 1982 (for comparison, the lowest temperature directly recorded anywhere on earth was −89.2 °C (−128.6 °F) at Vostok Station on July 21, 1983
https://www.google.co.in/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Pole&ved=0CB4QFjACahUKEwjPpoO4md_GAhVQWo4KHdwoDpA&usg=AFQjCNFWYcQCqsF2odpe46uTOotA96b3Bw&sig2=4Cg5G_jJqtou9CEzYbQtJA
45c
48 in Greece
http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/77772-highest-ever-recorded-temperature-in-europe/
Seville, Spain 50.0 C (122.0 F) on the 4th August, 1881
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_weather_records
this has only 47.2 for Spain.
As per NOAA and UK met office it is Seville.
http://members.iinet.net.au/~jacob/worldtp.html
There was a reported temperature of 51o C in 1876 and a 48.8oC in 1926 but the test equipment was suspect. The accepted high was 47.8oC in Murcia on July 29, 1976.
https://books.google.co.in/books?id=0cmROzLkkckC&lpg=SA6-PA47&ots=7aomeFK9hT&dq=Seville%2C%20Spain%2050.0%20C%20(&pg=SA6-PA47#v=onepage&q=Seville,%20Spain%2050.0%20C%20(&f=false
only yesterday we recorded normal day time (34.8) temp throughout this month
Department of Telecom panel upholds Net Neutrality in India
http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report-department-of-telecom-panel-upholds-net-neutrality-in-india-2105043
Temp Max 38C IMD
here is an another source of list of extreme rainfall events in TN
may,oct november is okay… how vandavasi recorded 70cm in august?
In which year.
1965
1965 was strong el nino with neutral IOD. ( similar to this year el nino).
omg…700mm in elnino that too during swm in tn….
Strong el nino with neutral IOD sometimes result in systems in SW bay during SWM. I am also expecting good rainfall over southern peninsula coming August and September( similar to 1914. August – 239, Sep – 174)
btw i gone thru all sources .there was no synoptic activity around bay tat time.. it cant happen bcos of mesocale vortex like ketti’s event
Ok. May be because of the strong monsoon spell over southern peninsula.
Already CFS picking up good rainfall over southern peninsula in August.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=936&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
so are you expecting same to happen again in tat zone ?
Yes. If IOD stays within neutral range.
omg!!
severe ts
chennai temperature touched 38 as per imd chennai
வெப்பச்சலனம் காரணமாக தமிழகம், புதுச்சேரியில் சில இடங்களில் மழை பெய்ய வாய்ப்பு உள்ளதாக சென்னை வானிலை மையம் அறிவித்துள்ளது. குறிப்பாக திண்டுக்கல், தேனி, நீலகிரி மாவட்டங்களில் கனமழைக்கு வாய்ப்பு உள்ளதாக வானிலை மையம் மேலும் தெரிவித்துள்ளது. நேற்று அதிக பட்சமாக நீலகிரி மாவட்டம் நடுவட்டத்தில் 3 செ.மீ மழை பதிவாகி உள்ளது – DINAMALAR
I use CFS to pick up the trend in coming months, and not for forecast.
In the past CFS has picked up systems before two months of the actual genesis of the system.
btw CFS is the widely used long range model.. far superior than most long range models
Here’s the monthly forecast for August from CFS. Central Indian ocean near equator will become very active( most of the models agree with this scenario). It can result in system formation near Kerala coast.
wow.. everything happening according to the script.
My earlier comment.
“Coming NEM season cyclogenesis will be happening in SC/SE Arabian sea and near Kerala coast. BOB may stay quiet this time. TN will get regular easterlies.”
Rami also expecting good rainfall over South India in August and september.
radar -super
mjo forecast for august http://envam1.env.uea.ac.uk/mjo_forecast.html
Looking good for southern peninsula.
something similar to june forecast.. hope tis doesnt fail
August will be good for TN.
if august 1st week fails to give a solid revival for the country,lets write off tis swm..
Most of the weather agencies were expecting below normal rainfall for North India but till now it has received above normal rainfall. Southern peninsula will get above normal rainfall in August. So overall SMM may stay normal or just below normal. Also IMD has increased rainfall from 88% to 92% in their latest forecast.
did they revised their forecast?
Rsrao to rajeshrd • 9 hours ago
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/el-nino-to-hit-92-long-period-rain-forecast-by-+-9-imd_1971701.html?utm_source=ref_article
“why they are talking about again 92% even when Elnino strengthening without any +ve IOD? They reduced from 93% to 88% earlier. Now they are speaking about 92%?”
yet to revise officially !! lets see what they expect
i remember cfs was alarming west coast in their forecast since spring
Yes, west coast may receive below normal rainfall, but AP, Telangana, Interior Karnataka and TN may get above normal rainfall in August and will reach within normal category by the end of SWM.
sat img update
sw sector
First POPUP near Arani…
TGT chennai uh????
nothing near arani
Lost the game finally, not much rains inside Chennai yesterday. Dry team won by 0.5mm 😉
Today if it rains is that due to VS?
Million of years ago…..There was an continent it is located south of present-day India, in the Indian Ocean
almost part of tamilnadu it was completely gone down and sinked
a section of the European and American scholars speculated the existence of a submerged continent called Lemuria, to explain geological and other similarities between Africa, India andMadagascar. A section of Tamil revivalists adapted this theory, connecting it to the Pandyan lands lost to the ocean, as described in ancient Tamil and Sanskrit literature. Although the Lemuria theory was later rendered obsolete by the continental drift theory, the concept still remains popular among Tamil revivalists.
Yes KumariKandam !!!
cfs expecting a considerable decrease in nino 3 anomalies for next few weeks ,coinciding with that ,monsoon is picking up in their forecast
Sel,
why positive iod not establishing in IO inspite of strong el nino.
JAMSTEC, ECMWF and NASA were expecting positive iod to emerge in June itself.
Indian Ocean might be non responsive to Pacific forcing
but most of the time strong el ninos are associated with positive iod( 1972, 1982, 1987, 1997, 1877).
1965 is the only exception.
I feel we cannot directly link the strength of ENSO to Indian Ocean response. This year might not respond or may do that a bit later. There are cases wen it begins evolving and disappears half way …but Pacific goes on with its work
but warming of IO is preventing current el nino from attaining very strong status.
for current el nino to attain 1997 like status, IOD has to turn positive.
that is wat most models expected ,tat is the big question among most of the experts..actually its common to see basin wide warming in indian oean if it is modoki ..now tat is not the case here , its a typical elnino but still something stopping it.. development of IOD is a slow process like enso,..the response may lag for certain months..evolving iod conditions shld get influenced by mascarane high in late may.. tis mascarane high gets influenced by eastward moving extra tropical low and also to antartic oscillation index.. so lot of parameters comes into play, we cant say anyone factor for non establishment of positive iod
* eastward
@guest11k:disqus
Actually, we cannot fix on a center position of a ridge to see how a system would track towards throughout its life. Once a system vortex attains a certain altitude and stays with longevity in that state , it gets hooked and embedded into the ridge’s flow at one instant and location, and from there on it would mostly move along that streamlines.These stream flows , may not be rigid always and can develop new structures at any time taking system to a surprise track. Let us consider the case of Cyclone Thane. In the initial stages , it was travelling northwards for a few days, as it was caught up inside the stream flows on the western periphery of a ridge that was having its axis @ 10 N latitude. The system would have moved in the same direction for some more time , and past ridge axis it would have turned slowly NNE, NE and ENE and would have moved that way. But this is a normal text book kind of flow. But in reality , during its northward propagation, the far away system worked to change this behavior. There was an upper tropospheric long wave trough somewer to the NNW / N of the system near north India @ 200 hPa moving westwards,and in the same time , the ridge that was steering Thane, was expanding and extending westwards. The ridge ‘s western end came under the trough from north, and the trough was exerting a southward pressure on to the ridge. The ridge extending westward had to form a small semi circle clockwise flow , and set a new ridge axis close to 15 N latitude to the north of the system. Now the upper level winds were easterlies , which took the system west…to TN LF..
In the images below, u can see , how a long wave shallow trough is beginning to change the structure of the ridge , and later a new partially developed anticyclone forms to the north of the system and changes to a westerly track ..
The 2 nd image comes first in date order
Thanks Gokul for the beautiful explanation.
Welcome ….I forgot to say another case , if we have a ridge in central India too, we cannot say it might take a westerly track , because the ridge in South China Sea/ Myanmar can dominate with the help of mid latitude westerlies . So a fight for forces can take place between these 2 ridges , and the one in east can take over
So ridge and shear is placed simultaneously adjacent?
Shear comes in place in any form , the same ridge can do shear damage to system , not necessary for a trough to bring in that shear
Oh ho….ok
Sorry mentioned the trough moving westwards , it is eastwards actually
TS formed near Arani has moved to Avaniapuram (AVP)…
Avaniyapuram in Mdy?
There is one another in Tiruvannamalai Dist.
1 Meter Rise In Sea Levels, 4 Degree Rise In Global Temperatures And India Can Be Permanently Damaged
http://www.indiatimes.com/news/india/1-meter-rise-in-sea-levels-4-degree-rise-in-global-temperatures-and-india-can-be-permanently-damaged-234771.html
Now a days why no flashu?
remote session over?
Still not cramped
Arica, in Chile went for over 14 years without rain.
Think we are better off..
ramar vanavasam pona mathiri….
What happen to bore water ?
We r a tropical country/city not fair comparing to chile to convince ourselves
Jon..No comparisons..Chumma oru aarudhal post.
Pullingoth and makuta has mean rf average of 594 n 505 cm in kodagu dist not many aware of these places …bhagmandala avg is 603 cm
Heavy rain may lash in parts of AP and Telangana tonight…..
Dense Convection in Arabian sea BOB and over malaya peninsula
kiran means sun rise
Yes…sun ray
kiran means foxy rays
Kieron ?
@ jeet where is my post & your comment. kea deleting this also
it is there
when you refresh the page this problem occours, again refresh you will find it
It’s here only…not deleted
Net Neutrality upheld in India, DoT panel says its core principles must be adhered to
Lots of POPUPS….