Himalayan Orographic Rains dominate the Monsoon show

Monsoonal precipitation continues to pound all along the Himalayan foothills, as the Monsoon Trough at mean sea level lies along that Topography. This synoptic scale system is seen with a solid rain making trough located across the Sub-Himalayan and Gangetic West Bengal regions. This would lead to heavy rains in the region along with parts of North eastern states and parts of north central India. During the same time, the west coast region, especially Kerala and costal Karnataka will also see heavy rains. An upper air cyclonic circulation, that set up cloudy conditions for TN would become less significant in the next 24 hours.
02. Meteosat5
Chennai to see a cloudy day. The City will see a maximum temperature around 36 – 37 C with a chance of rain.

Coimbatore will be cloudy and overcast with temperature maximum of about 30-31 C.

Madurai to see a partly cloudy sky with a maximum temperature of 38–39 C.

1,000 thoughts on “Himalayan Orographic Rains dominate the Monsoon show

  1. Most parts of Telangana & AP states received heavy rains during last 2 days, which given high relief for the farmers.

    • why they are talking about again 92% even when Elnino strengthening without any +ve IOD? They reduced from 93% to 88%. Now they are speaking about 92%?

  2. Heavy rain alert for AP & Telangana states:

    Today there will be high chances fro wide-spread heavy rains over most parts of these states. Some places even will record heavy to very heavy rains.

  3. Flash…Chennai rain alert:
    Rains are guaranteed for “core Chennai” between july 18th & 21st. Sporadic rains may spread before and after this time limit. I will give complete details later of the day.

  4. Few sprinklers in the wee hours I suppose here in A.N.West..
    Batsman R.G. Wirelessman is in a state of Hypersomnia.. Only a loud thunder I guess can wake him up ..Even the mild , very mild sprinklers have failed to wake him up over night..
    His bat is almost dropping from his hands and seems to be disinterested to put bat on ball..
    Even a few steps down the track would show that he is keen on getting of the mark..
    That few steps (pretensions) at least would be enough to see some decimals like 0.2 or 0.5 etc..
    Sad, not to be…
    Need some drastic measures to cheer him up and tell him precisely the job he has got to do..
    Off course, what can he do when the bowler himself has lost interest in bowling to him…
    Bowler..exclaims..what can I do!! The condition are not conducive for me to roll my arm over..

    The Test match..Goes on….

  5. Flash….expecting SOI to stabilise for next 3-4 days. Thereafter SOI will increase for many days, which can result very active SWM conditions country wide (please note that already IOD is in increasing trend along with MJO’s Western Hemisphere entry). Especially west-coast and peninsular India will be benefited more from july last week onwards (pl note that models are not indicating any thing great).

  6. JMA 3 month ensemble forecast wich came out yesterday shows the development of positive iod in indian ocean but no proper revival of rains for aug/sep.. only october getting active with the arrival of strong mjo

  7. Huge cloud mass with high intensity rains at Jharkand, lucknow, chattisgarh..Check the cloud density over there..

  8. ONI index peaked around +2.5 during NDJ period of 1877.
    QBO was constant around +10 during OND in 1877.
    Positive iod emerged in August and peaked in September. It was neutral during JJ period.

    Forecast for 2015.

    ONI will peak around +2.5 during NDJ period.
    QBo will be constant around +10 during OND.
    Positive IOD may emerge in August and may peak in September. It was neutral during June and July.

    Can someone provide the data for NEM and BOB cyclones of 1877

  9. Today is very windy compare to last few days .. Hereafter wards we can see winds becoming heavier during day time..( typical mid-july winds)

  10. Chennai rainfall from uac
    14.06.2014- 0.3 mm
    15.06.2014- 0.6mm
    16.06.2014- 0.3mm
    Totally – 1.2 mm
    Kea team lose
    ….pj team won won won

  11. Guest11K,

    Perfect analysis by comparing 2 similar years of 1877 and 2015. Both the years had similar ENSO and similar IOD values till date.

    If IOD set in August and peak in September, then that itself is enough for good NEM. Also NAO forecast likely to be Neutral, hence the impact will not be there from that North Atlantic Ocean.

  12. Problem started when the original name Priya was changed to Ashooba…. It came late by one year and now it is the topic of discussion for success/failure of the SWM.
    What is in a name ?

  13. Guest 11k chennai got


    Jan – 0.3
    Feb – 0.0
    Mar – 0.8
    Apr – 0.0
    May – 0.0
    Jun – 59.9
    Jul – 31.0
    Aug – 63.2
    Sep – 80.0
    Oct – 217.4
    Nov – 539.8
    Dec – 148.8

    Total for the year Chennai got 1141.20 mm but NEM was bumper with 906 mm

  14. IOD values 1877

    1877 1 -0.103607
    1877 2 0.56595
    1877 3 0.32754
    1877 4 -0.0592909
    1877 5 -0.440715
    1877 6 -0.258658
    1877 7 -0.23245
    1877 8 0.560384
    1877 9 0.948531
    1877 10 0.840308
    1877 11 0.843696
    1877 12 0.401561

    • Till date IOD values are similar to 1877. Need to see IOD values for August and September.

      If IOD stays neutral in coming months, then it will be similar to 1914( got 864 mm during NEM)

      If IOD turns positive in August and stays strong positive in NEM season, then it will be similar to 1877( got 904 mm in NEM)

  15. upto 1990 a place in tn (tiruvannamalai dist ) has got 710 mm in a day which was highest 24 hr record in tn can any one guess??

  16. Jon, i have to update for more years. this list will be updated.

    82 cm at Ketti (Nilgris dt) on November 10, 2009 (Cyclone Phyaan)
    71 cm at Vandavasi (Thiruvannamalai dt) on August 5, 1965
    66 cm at Orathanadu (Thanjavur dt) on November 27, 2008 (Cyclone Nisha)
    53 cm at Thanjavur on November 27, 2008 (Cyclone Nisha)
    57.2 cm at Cuddalore on May 18, 1943
    56 cm at Avalanchi (Nilgris dt) on June 23, 2007
    54 cm at Mahabalipuram (Kanchipuram dt) on November 20, 1970
    52 cm at Aanamalai (Coimbatore dt) on November 20,1959
    51 cm at Upper Bhavani (Nilgris dt) on June 17, 2007
    51 cm at Mandapam (Ramanathapuram dt) on April 4, 2005
    50 cm at Palaviduthi (Tiruchirapalli dt) on October 31, 1981
    48 cm at Papanasam (Thanjavur dt) on Novemebr 7, 1917
    48 cm at Upper Bhavani (Nilgris dt) on June 23, 2007
    48 cm at Karaikal (Puducherry) on November 15, 1991
    46 cm at Avalanchi (Nilgris dt) on June 17, 2007
    45 cm at Nungambakkam (Chennai) on November 25, 1976
    45 cm at Kodanad (Nilgris dt) on November 15, 1992
    42.7 cm at Cuddalore on December 12, 1931
    42 cm at Nungambakkam (Chennai)on October 27, 2005 (Deep Depression 04B)
    42 cm at Vedaranniyam on November 27, 2008 (Cyclone Nisha)
    42 cm at Chinnakallar (Coimbatore dt) on June 23, 2007
    40.3 cm at Nagapattinam on December 5, 1963


  17. Updated list….. Pls see if any thing missing…..

    Weather terms
    Ameenbijli (kea weather)

    NEM – Northeast monsoon
    SWM – Southwest monsoon

    MJO – Madden Julian oscillation
    SOI – Southern oscillation index
    QBO – Qusai bennial oscillation
    IOD – Indian ocean dipole
    NAO- North atlantic oscillation
    AO- Atlantic oscillation
    PDO- Pacific decadal oscillation
    EKW- Equatorial kelvin wave
    ERW- Equatorial Roosby wave
    CEW- Cross Equatorial winds.
    AMO- Atlantic multidecadel oscillation
    ONI- Oceanic nino index
    MISO- Monsoon intrasesonal oscillation
    ERC- Eyewall replacement cycle.
    TEJ- Tropical easterly jet
    TUTT- Tropical Upper tropospheric trough
    MRG- Mixed rossby gravity wave

    TS- Thunder storm
    LWD- Line of wind discontinuity
    NET – Naked eye technology
    CB- cloud burst

    CTT- Cloud top temperature
    SST- Sea surface temperature
    WWB- Westerly wind burst
    OLR – Out going longwave radiation.
    ENSO- Elnino southern oscillation
    WD- Western disturbance
    MSLP- Mean sea level pressure
    A.S.L- Above mean sea level

    ITCZ- Inter tropical convergence zone

    OTCZ- Oceanic tropical convergence zone

    SPCZ- Southern pacific convergence zone

    BOB- Bay of Bengal
    ARB- Arabian sea
    WP- Western pacific
    IO- Indian ocean
    GOM- Gulf of mannar
    NTN- North tamil nadu
    SAP- South Andhra Pradesh
    NAP- North Andhra Pradesh
    KR- kerala
    KTK- Karnataka
    CHN- Chennai
    BNG- banglore

    LLCC- Low level cyclonic circulation
    HP- High pressure
    UAC- Upper air circulation
    TOLP- Trough of Low pressure
    LPA- Low pressure area
    WML- Well marked low pressure
    D- Depression
    DD- Deep depression
    CS- Cyclonic storm
    SCS- Severe cyclonic storm
    VSCS- Very severe cyclonic
    ESCS- Extremely severe cyclonic storm
    SUCS- Super cyclonic storm

    STS- Severe tropical storm
    MTC- Maritime continent
    TY- Typhoon
    MB- Millibars
    HPA- Hectopascal
    TC- Tropical cyclone.
    TCHP- Tropical cyclone heat potential
    LD- Land Depression
    TPW- Total precipitable water
    TCW- Total cloud water.
    WPD – Wind power density
    TH- Tibeitan high
    SH -Siberian high
    MH- Mascren high.

    GFS- Global forecasting system

    ECMWF – European centre for medium range weather forecasts

    KWS – kea weather station
    AWS-Automatic weather station
    ARG- Automatic Rain gauge
    RG- Rain gauge
    RH- Relative Humidity
    TEMP- Temperature
    VVP- Volume velocity processing
    DBZ- Decibles related to Z
    HW – Heat wave
    EW- Easterly wave
    SFC- Surface level

    N- North
    S- South
    E- East
    W- West

    NE- North East
    NW- North West
    SE- South East
    SW- South West

    IMD- india meteorological department
    RMC- Regional meteorological department.
    RSMC- Regional specialized meteorological centre
    ACWC- Area cyclone warning centre.
    SSHS- Saffir simphson hurricane scale
    JMA- Japan meteorological agency
    TMD- Thailand meteorological department
    BOM- Beauro of meteorology

    DWR- Doppler weather radar
    CDR- Cyclone detection radar

    ISOL- Isolated
    SCT- Scattered
    FWS- Fairly widespread
    WS- Widespread
    RF- Rainfall

  18. Yesterday it was a big failure for me.. And i don’t know why did kea sir keatured my comment….

  19. When will Skymet reduce the forecast for SWM rains? July has been terrible till now.
    June – Skymet
    July – IMD
    its 1-1 now, 2 more rounds to go

  20. Today’s moisture availability @ chennai @5%30hrs

    500hpa- 89% winds – Westerly
    700hpa -99% winds – WNWly
    850hpa- 68% winds – Westerly

  21. I was observing the wind direction for the past 10 days. from morning till afternoon the wind blows from NW or WNW upto 1.00 PM, but after that the wind start blowing from SE,
    on 10th July when it rained in Tambaram the wind direction was NW hence we got more rains. after that it started to blow from SE, due to this no rains. What is the reason for this change in wind direction

  22. In 1996 i think a island in la reunion recorded 1850mm of rainfall in 24hrs due to cyclone

  23. Coming NEM season cyclogenesis will be happening in SC/SE Arabian sea and near Kerala coast. BOB may stay quiet this time. TN will get regular easterlies.

  24. Ehsan thats an insulting comment to verify my sources. I am proud to say that no one in India or
    even world know wettest places than me. Learn 1st then come to debate.
    Dont jump in.

    I have even updated world Top wettest places. For which even c.burt, a renowned weather author from WU thanked me and follows my blog. Even NOAA officials ask me rainfall data of Hulikal etc.

    Here is the list – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/2013/09/puerto-lopez-in-columbia-new-wettest.html

  25. வெப்பச்சலனம் காரணமாக தமிழகம், புதுச்சேரியில் சில இடங்களில் மழை பெய்ய வாய்ப்பு உள்ளதாக சென்னை வானிலை மையம் அறிவித்துள்ளது. குறிப்பாக திண்டுக்கல், தேனி, நீலகிரி மாவட்டங்களில் கனமழைக்கு வாய்ப்பு உள்ளதாக வானிலை மையம் மேலும் தெரிவித்துள்ளது. நேற்று அதிக பட்சமாக நீலகிரி மாவட்டம் நடுவட்டத்தில் 3 செ.மீ மழை பதிவாகி உள்ளது – DINAMALAR

  26. I use CFS to pick up the trend in coming months, and not for forecast.
    In the past CFS has picked up systems before two months of the actual genesis of the system.

      • Here’s the monthly forecast for August from CFS. Central Indian ocean near equator will become very active( most of the models agree with this scenario). It can result in system formation near Kerala coast.

      • wow.. everything happening according to the script.

        My earlier comment.
        “Coming NEM season cyclogenesis will be happening in SC/SE Arabian sea and near Kerala coast. BOB may stay quiet this time. TN will get regular easterlies.”

  27. Million of years ago…..There was an continent it is located south of present-day India, in the Indian Ocean
    almost part of tamilnadu it was completely gone down and sinked

    a section of the European and American scholars speculated the existence of a submerged continent called Lemuria, to explain geological and other similarities between Africa, India andMadagascar. A section of Tamil revivalists adapted this theory, connecting it to the Pandyan lands lost to the ocean, as described in ancient Tamil and Sanskrit literature. Although the Lemuria theory was later rendered obsolete by the continental drift theory, the concept still remains popular among Tamil revivalists.

  28. cfs expecting a considerable decrease in nino 3 anomalies for next few weeks ,coinciding with that ,monsoon is picking up in their forecast

    • Sel,
      why positive iod not establishing in IO inspite of strong el nino.
      JAMSTEC, ECMWF and NASA were expecting positive iod to emerge in June itself.

      • but most of the time strong el ninos are associated with positive iod( 1972, 1982, 1987, 1997, 1877).

      • I feel we cannot directly link the strength of ENSO to Indian Ocean response. This year might not respond or may do that a bit later. There are cases wen it begins evolving and disappears half way …but Pacific goes on with its work

      • that is wat most models expected ,tat is the big question among most of the experts..actually its common to see basin wide warming in indian oean if it is modoki ..now tat is not the case here , its a typical elnino but still something stopping it.. development of IOD is a slow process like enso,..the response may lag for certain months..evolving iod conditions shld get influenced by mascarane high in late may.. tis mascarane high gets influenced by eastward moving extra tropical low and also to antartic oscillation index.. so lot of parameters comes into play, we cant say anyone factor for non establishment of positive iod

  29. @guest11k:disqus

    Actually, we cannot fix on a center position of a ridge to see how a system would track towards throughout its life. Once a system vortex attains a certain altitude and stays with longevity in that state , it gets hooked and embedded into the ridge’s flow at one instant and location, and from there on it would mostly move along that streamlines.These stream flows , may not be rigid always and can develop new structures at any time taking system to a surprise track. Let us consider the case of Cyclone Thane. In the initial stages , it was travelling northwards for a few days, as it was caught up inside the stream flows on the western periphery of a ridge that was having its axis @ 10 N latitude. The system would have moved in the same direction for some more time , and past ridge axis it would have turned slowly NNE, NE and ENE and would have moved that way. But this is a normal text book kind of flow. But in reality , during its northward propagation, the far away system worked to change this behavior. There was an upper tropospheric long wave trough somewer to the NNW / N of the system near north India @ 200 hPa moving westwards,and in the same time , the ridge that was steering Thane, was expanding and extending westwards. The ridge ‘s western end came under the trough from north, and the trough was exerting a southward pressure on to the ridge. The ridge extending westward had to form a small semi circle clockwise flow , and set a new ridge axis close to 15 N latitude to the north of the system. Now the upper level winds were easterlies , which took the system west…to TN LF..
    In the images below, u can see , how a long wave shallow trough is beginning to change the structure of the ridge , and later a new partially developed anticyclone forms to the north of the system and changes to a westerly track ..

      • Welcome ….I forgot to say another case , if we have a ridge in central India too, we cannot say it might take a westerly track , because the ridge in South China Sea/ Myanmar can dominate with the help of mid latitude westerlies . So a fight for forces can take place between these 2 ridges , and the one in east can take over

      • Shear comes in place in any form , the same ridge can do shear damage to system , not necessary for a trough to bring in that shear

  30. Pullingoth and makuta has mean rf average of 594 n 505 cm in kodagu dist not many aware of these places …bhagmandala avg is 603 cm

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