It looked perfect but as usual for UAC, the massive Thunderstorms missed Chennai. This is the 6th time a UAC has missed Chennai. Only Ennore managed to get 6 mm rainfall. The rain may have left us dissapointed but it is going to be a pleasant day with maximum temp expected to be around 35 C.
The morning rains may have failed for Chennai. But the day is not over, expecting rains in evening/night as one last hope from the UAC. Else, enjoy the pleasant NEM like cloudy day.
Radar of Chennai
KeaWeather Archives 
It’s a very pleasant day.. hope it stays like this for 3 or 4 days
Very pleasant, Cool and Drizzly Morning.
Andaman getting pounded. Almost 99% of Moisture all over Andaman and Nicober islands
7.30 am Satellite.
SWM returns to west coast as expected!
So true. Just so obvious by looking at the conditions here in Bangalore!
It seems to miss us with precision
susa,
what about our chances?
Finally Heavy rains in kurnool kadapa.Kurnool deficit reduces from minus 70 to minus 40
krishagiri – 109 mm
kamalapuram – 106 mm
Veldurti – 105 mm
markapur – 101 mm
panyam – 100 mm
good chance of rain today in most parts of chennai
But when…. what tym
Lol. Since last night
Lol
Huge relief from 39+ days. Rain may start from afternoon / evening
It’s ver very minute drizzle which is what currently going here..
1 mm group (me, jupi, Susa, Mouli & Asad) scores a big win
Yes u won… congratulations
Why results declared so early.. Shld wait till tomorrow morning 8:30 update
All hopes lost even for a die hard UAC fan
Ehsan wat abt me u should include my name as well
Ok
2 weak end dry weather continue tamilnadu
What????
Update on Tuesday evening forecast by Vela
Before Wednesday Morning 8.30am (IMD Reading), Chennai will witness good amount of Rains, Peak time for the rain is after 3am.
Wednesday’s Forecast
Thanks for the UAC & Cloud Cover, Temp will maintain around 35.
Heavy rains at time, mostly drizzles and cloud cover expected over Chennai and Coastal Tamilnadu.
South AP will record very good wide spread rains…
Lol. Another forecast gone horribly wrong
….and imagine those who are forecasting about NEM now :))
NEM cant fail
Chandra Mouli, Ambattur Rsrao 13 hours ago
Yes. Something tells that it may miss chennai and curve from Pulicat to BOB to the east of Chennai.
Chandra Mouli, Ambattur 13 hours ago
My expectation is SHAR & Pulicat will get Rains and North Chennai receives Drizzles and Cloudy Morning expected in Chennai Tomorrow
Forecast wins exactly 😉
Congrats
Ehsan day is not over…..morning rains may have missed Chennai. Lets see. As of now dry team is on Top not won the battle.
Exactly,… Show is yet to start
In which theater?
In all chennai theatres
Ehsan always in hurry to boast victory even when contest is in progress.
Con-testing bloggers patience,,,
Unusual wind pattern prevails across the country..moist sw winds skipping entire indian landmass ,and northwest winds seen dominating!!
This is the pattern which i believed yesterday while forecasting it. This steering confirms the TS path today and Moisture is good along that path.
wind confluence point. its a key thing to predict rains.
Yes PJ
Yes PJ
Some 24 drops (Dot balls) since morning…
.New Opening Batsman ( R.G.Wirelessman…Right Handed)-
Took guard, surveyed the field, moved the sight screen, changed his batting gloves,, adjusted his helmet strap, did some pitch gardening…got into his stance position…
Umpire calls “play”… Batsman playing a real test match innings.. Patience personified..
4 overs up..Yet to get off the mark….
Eager to see him just do that..
Wow…SWM-2015 fighting like “great warrior” with strong Elnino-2015 even without the support of Tibetan High (TH). This is very rarest phenomenon if see the past data. But it looks ultimately SWM-2015 will win over Elnino-2015.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=ir&zoom=&time=
Wow…SWM-2015 fighting like “great warrior” with strong Elnino-2015 even without the support of Tibetan High (TH). This is very rarest phenomenon if see the past data. But it looks ultimately SWM-2015 will win over Elnino-2015.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=ir&zoom=&time=
without Tibetan high, it looks SWM-2015 as headless 😦 But no problem 🙂
without Tibetan high, it looks SWM-2015 as headless 😦 But no problem 🙂
Good News,
Kelvin back in Phase 2 today, and likely to emerge into Phase 3 tomorrow.
Moving very fast and it is not at all useful for SST to increase in WIO.
Negative OLR likely to emerge in Phase 2 from Friday or Saturday. In the second pic shows blue line over Africa, moving towards IO.
Partha, why sometimes kelvin useful to increase SST, and sometimes not?
this time it is moving very very fast and crossing Phase 2 in a day, hence it cannot impact SST, it has to move slowly, at least should stay for 4 days. It happens during ELNINO.
or else can we understand that already lot of convection there at phase2, which may prevent SST increase?
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=ir&zoom=&time=
have you seen strong MJO pulse entering west-African coast? At the same time Kelvin clearing the path for MJO to enter Phases 2&3.
Partha, why rains not materialized over Chennai despite ER/MRG presence?
Partha, why rains not materialized over Chennai despite ER/MRG presence?
The day is going to be a dull day till evening nothing is expected in Chennai
Tamaraipakkam – 7
Ennore – 6
Poondi – 5
Minjur – 5
Core city barrier left dry again.
OMG…SOI went down till -18.2, which is strongest -ve value since 2005 February’s value of -29.1 (almost after 10 yrs)
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml
OMG…SOI went down till -18.2, which is strongest -ve value since 2005 February’s value of -29.1 (almost after 10 yrs)
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml
Is that a really good sign or a really bad sign?
Obliviously decrease in SOI is bad sign. Hope it will start increasing again.
Obliviously decrease in SOI is bad sign. Hope it will start increasing again.
I am following this from midnight. Chennai pushes away rains bands which trying to enter Chennai from midnight .not vice versa. So rain prediction is correct. It is Chennai faults only.
Lol, how chennai pushes rain bands?
Stroms where formed and its path is according to the wind confluence
That means there is something so Chennai does not get rain.
See below i posted Earth Null pattern of 700hpa that confirms the TS path.
OK. I am busy . see you.
If Wind confluence is the key point.try it to predict next time. I am going to Vadapalani. See you latetr
As PJ says Wind Confluence is the Key to predict Rains. If Wind Confluence is little bit south then Atleast North Chennai would have got some showers.
As PJ says Wind Confluence is the Key to predict Rains. If Wind Confluence is little bit south then Atleast North Chennai would have got some showers.
Lol, how chennai pushes rain bands?
Stroms where formed and its path is according to the wind confluence
If we find the reason, it will be easy to predict Chennai rain in future
If we find the reason, it will be easy to predict Chennai rain in future
Lol… what’s new about that? This SWM is not for Chennai.
Something is not ok. UACs cannot miss Chennai 6 times in a row. We need some serious insight as to what is preventing Rains from entering the 50km circle
need to change the convex Chennai coastal line to concave coastal line like central AP 🙂
then both SWM & NEM rains will favor Chennai. Even more number of cyclones will cross at Chennai only due to concave-modification.
then both SWM & NEM rains will favor Chennai. Even more number of cyclones will cross at Chennai only due to concave-modification.
need to change the convex Chennai coastal line to concave coastal line like central AP 🙂
This uac reviving moisture bak to kerala for shortly before dissipation..
Again early morning rains in kochi ap today seem hvy rain instore there unfortunately i m landed in chennai 😦
ingayum bidding ah?
Haha 😀 ……
I didn’t start…..he got over excited and asked openly in blog….
Rami,
The intensity of SST determines the strength of MJO, can we put this way??
yes Partha
Omg ..cyclonic brothers active in blog now
They should pull the UAC down!
Uac is dead already
without any bullet of rains at Chennai 😦
Break rule shield
It rained rifles in my terrace!
tis is not the same UAC tat act as a precursor before a cyclogeneisis..tis is completely different
noticing since last oct. they always come when rain hopes starts to reduce & in-active when blog in full flow
Pazhagi pochi ….just easy..I’ve been used to it
hmm..yes UAC failing 6 times in a row is too much. i think we all missing some X factor in our forecasts
Here comes bermuda mystery
so no fundamental factor ?
Could be a pessimistic theory
X-factors is sure …remember in matrices , we have a case called the system of equations is consistent with “n” number of solutions , so solving the unknown leads to diverging solutions ….
yes yes
you are saying something, it is good to read, but tough to understand.
mothathula nallavaru nu solra…
Haha 😀 😀
explaining complex weather dynamics in complex equations 🙂
No maths here…pls
No Maths , no weather ……enna panradhu …
Practically for our survival + – × ÷% is enough in this world
Not stopping there …add all this between the symbols u ve mentioned …
http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/csp/cms/sites/dt.common.streams.StreamServer.cls?STREAMOID=4ULY_KFVyH_eJUT0gyTbws$daE2N3K4ZzOUsqbU5sYsewfV00UuhhkyPDKJ5L32cWCsjLu883Ygn4B49Lvm9bPe2QeMKQdVeZmXF$9l$4uCZ8QDXhaHEp3rvzXRJFdy0KqPHLoMevcTLo3h8xh70Y6N_U_CryOsw6FTOdKL_jpQ-&CONTENTTYPE=image/jpeg
Idha purijikarthuku Tower Park la 5 Sunday meet pannanum.
if possible, decode it in simple terms ,and post it here, it will we very useful
Yeah I ll try surely ..
good observation..meaning we dont expect rains tat r below deluge standard!!
Pj n rao keeping my gingers crossed
still we can keep our fingers crossed till the end of 16th july 8:30 AM 🙂
so all the rains went to pulicat lake. superappu.
idhu dhaan solradhu, patta kaalile padum, ketta kudiye kedum
I will wake up in the morning, feeling chill, stretching my
legs to floor from bed, it chill feel on my leg. Opening the window curtain,
could see smoky glass window. Opening the shutter got the sprinkles of rain
water in my face along with heavy and cool winds pushing me behind.
Sitting in Balcony and having hot coffee, by seeing rain.
Since the climate is cold, raring to go for bath. Finally
made my mind and bathing in warm water, since the tap water will be colder. Now
dare to keep my feet on the floor, since it will be chill.
Dark and wet evening. Having Hot Tea and Bajji by seeing rain.
Now in the night, going to sleep, we will forget the AC,
will reduce the fan speed, covering ourselves with bed sheet and sleep with
comfortable and cooler night. Again waking up next day morning will be tough
again.
When we will see this atmosphere, when we will be into NEM
season. Waiting anxiously.
Sounds like Harold Robins! : )
what is that?
American famous Writer known for his romantic way of writing
What about (MMM) mosquito menace and mats when the climate is cold and raining..Think you forgot it..
The famous mosquito buzz in the ears during rainy season..
Just 2 days to go for Dakshinayanam Season to begin.
Tamil month Aadi 1 on Friday, the sun starts to move south, frequency of rainy days will increase, wind will be stronger.
Radar image 00.30 for reference
Mouli, the TS came much down than the confluence line at mid night. I am watching confluence line for long time. Everyday it wont be the same too.
It is easy to say like ehsan no rain. what is the purpose of weather blog if we are going to say that all 365 days. Someone has to bell the cat. I am willing to predict rains even in remote possibility.
TS formed and towered up. Why blame the UAC again.
Appreciate you.
No impact of WIO SST, remains same, but good thing for SWM is, West Pacific SST Anomaly becomes Negative. SST reducing in WP favours SWM during ELNINO years.
Cherrapunji slowly getting its share – 117 mm
I dont know why all of us are disappointed, what i was saying yesterday?
I said we will light rain today early morning, and from afternoon or evening we will get heavy downpour.
do we have hopes still?..i am glad i was able to predict some disturbance but no rain yet…
Bangalore 11.00am, Cloudy skies, pleasant breeze., it drizzled yesterday night around 10.00pm at Malleshwaram area.
Bangalore 1.45pm, Dark passing clouds from Western direction., it is drizzling at the moment @ Sarjapur area
I did say there won’t be much rain for Chennai today. No land breeze, less chances of rain.
can you explain why?
what is that land breeze??????
Significant land-breeze circulations is responsible for associated transport of heat and moisture over land. It is a shallow system which gathers moisture over land and results in rainfall in rain-scarce areas. A Koppen climate classification of tropical dry and wet savannah implies significant land breezes over a particular area.
Land breeze circulation needs source, what kind of a source it has, very simple is that it should be the monsoonal trough, which will strengthen as a base for any circulations.
We are not talking about monsoonal circulations here, the UAC is due to atmospheric changes, it will not have any relationship with lower level steering winds, no need to worry about the concept of moisture over land, it is the atmospheric moisture which is required at this time.
imd says chennai will witness saral rain due to vs
mala vantha seri
It’s mazhai !
where is veppam
prime factor elnino and suppressed phase of mjo collectively responsible for tis sluggish swm over india during first fortnight of july- CPC NOAA experts
same mjo was the hero last month and now villain for july!!!
Mjo won’t come back
Nanba, ELNINO is the only culprit which is making MJO to suppress moisture in IO, since SST is above normal in Pacific, MJO raring to go to another phase.
They can say ELNINO is the reason, they cannot say ELNINO and MJO.
Mjo will stall over Pacific because sst remains warm over there
partha,each and every wave have convective phase and suppresed phase.. mjo phase 4,5,6 maybe supportive during nem but it maynot support during swm..
I still have a question whether MJO support NTN during NEM, that is my finding in 2014, that is different.
Oh GOD ..the highest color shade covering a seriously large area
this looks more like NEM wind patterns…may be thtswhy elnino with +ve iod will be a powerful one hopefully…
No , these are anomalous vectors @ app. 12 km above surface , derived ones infact
need to understand what is anamolous, 200 hpa,500,700 hpa’s wind patterns..
all those levels represent constant pressure surfaces above earth , 1000 hPa is close to surface , and 200hPa is @ 12 km above surface …
Selvan,
Normal 200 HPA wind direction during SWM season is from East to West or NW to SE, correct me if i am wrong. The wind direction shown in below graph was from North to South.
This will not allow the tropical wave’s impact to reach mid latitude, hence monsoon will be weaker.
Partha ,
normal wind vector is different from anomalous vector …
even anomalous show like marginally the wind pattern of this season, but the figure shows completely contrasting.
Which one , the below 200 hPa VP ??
yes…
Actually , this is not any normally observed wind vectors , what we see in our daily IMD NWP charts are the observed ones , the vectors in the VP image are derived theoretically using various calculations and they filter it out ….This is just a representation of the scale and spatial extent of anomalous upper level convergence, and this is a resultant of just global circulations ,
When will this Useless air Circulation move away from Chennai? Atleast with heat we have better chance of rains
At least this uac is keeping the heat away.
No heat = 0% chance of evening TS
Heat = 20% chance of TS
We need some cloud cover to trap the moisture.
When 100% chance?
we are going to record 35 C after long time. Enjoy that.
So boring to witness below 35C weather
still time is there…wait kea
More time for heat?
no for rain
No chance of convection rains, no chance of any rain..what’s the outlook for the NEM, I wonder..
How dumb.
http://www.maalaimalar.com/2015/07/15104903/Shower-in-the-rain-continue-Ch.html
Lol, I knew this one already!
they invented it using super computer
6 UAC’S, 6 flops for chennai. They didn’t even give 1% of the rainfall. Time to ditch the UAC’s
then UAC also to be banned like IPL
why every one is concerned about cricket only? we say it is mainly played in not more than 20 countries, even FIFA also witnessed massive corruption charges recently, a sport which is played all over the world, more over how every one is sure all other sports are just pure like gold?
gold itself corrupted with more copper
the persons who did wrong, paid the price, that’s all, we should move, Cricket as a game will never lost its interest
cric is soaked in our blood. unable to digest these frauds. FIFA is nothing to do with our country
That is because we play bad soccer..if we break into the biggies league, FIFA will take notice..
We are still 150 years away from challenging in football
Bad diet..a diet rich in proteins like meat proteins etc will strengthen our physiques. Look at our “fast” bowlers..they lose steam after a few months of bowling “fast”..
Something gets done with corruption in other sports. But in cricket, it’s always a blind eye.
Why can’t the judge open the envelope? What’s stopping him?
Money.
It’s like an unwelcome guest, what to do!
atleast this UAC should trigger evening TS…not the torrential downpour from systems..nothing is happening…frustrating wait really. Thinking of going to office a bit late bcoz i gave my forecast yest’y
i gave them 90% probability….so 10 % flop chances are there so i can argue
Volcanic Eruptions Slow Down Global Warming: Study
http://m.ndtv.com/world-news/volcanic-eruptions-slow-down-global-warming-study-780946
UAC revenge part 2 on 24th July
Another UAC will come near TN coast around 24th July. This time it will be strong and will take revenge for spreading bad name about him and will pound Chennai will good rainfall :p
Later this UAC will develop into a LPA/Depression near WC BOB and will pound AP and Odisha with good rainfall.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hgfs_500wind.htm
Lol another story of failure
No. Even IITM expecting good rains over southern and central India during late july and early August period.
partha, hav a look!!!
Elnino unfavourable condition was nullified by fav mjo phase during june… unfavourable elnino condition +unfavourable mjo phase —??? tats what v had seen in the first week of july
Yes Selvan, you are right. I agree with this interpretation.
What i was saying today is that MJO is a reactor, ELNINO is impacter.
Based on the SST, MJO’s movement and strength will be decided.
Kanchipuram, Chengalpattu, Uthiramerur– temp 26c. Humidity 82%
Chennai — temp 32c, humidity 62%
Wind velocity increased at all levels over Chennai.
Can popos popup today over land?
Guest 11K, IMD gfs indicating good rains over chennai tonight.. More than 35mm.will that happen?
IMD gfs rainfall map is a joke!
Y?
Never predicted anything right in the past.
No. Few weeks back it was upgraded. It again started to do well.
Yes.
Are you sure?
Few weeks back it was upgraded. It again started to do well.
Large area of heavy rains moving towards TN coast as per imd gfs on 23rd July due to new UAC
Tell me about it!
Wat?
Lol still are you having faith in uac that too this year
Yes i have faith …..
During ELNINO years, UAC will form more.
as u predicted ,lot of uac forming
And also won’t impact Bermuda angle
That too gfs
Don’t rely on a 7 day gfs forecast.
Ada po pa
Veppam. Lol.
The weather channel app says the possibility of rain is 100% for Chengalpattu.!
I think this app is too liberal in predicting rain.
People who does not know the Dynamics properly, will surely not understand UAC.
UAC does not require the lower level support, UAC does not mind the ENSO conditions. UAC formed due to interaction of warm and cold air at mid latitude. Due to this interaction a Wave is formed, this is called Rossby.
If an year has more UAC during monsoon time, especially during SWM, we should know that SWM might fail, since the upper level temp varies more than lower levels. This is the first indication of weak monsoonal wind flow. But this weak monsoonal wind flow will help east coast of india, again don’t ask me about Chennai.
Once again go through my comment posted few months back in the following link.
I am still confident on today’s rain.
http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1311#comment-2045619947
Glad to note some people still have trust in IMD. Our gov’t wants us to trust the IMD.
In Qatar (and the entire GCC, I suspect), the weather gauges never show temps > 45’c, even if it is 55’c. Acc. to int’l Labor standards, 45’c is the max temp for humans to work in.
GFS also picking up UAC close to TN coast on 24july
Mjo active phase starting by 3aug as per latest report
This particular model is not reliable because it is eastward biased.
Flash news!
Heavy to very heavy rainfall alert for chennai city today!
Land circulation likely to form today.
And it will enter into sea.
Wind confluence is happening in pulicut lake
.! Will bring severe Ts To chennai! imd gfs forecast will come true of 35>mm to chennai!
Don’t worry about moisture…. Moisture is extremely high @all levels … Ts will tower up!
what is land circulation??
Only the mid level is favoring Chennai in the evening. I think that you are talking about the mid level too.
Ameen Podum pa Over Build Up Venna
If Chennai did not receive good rainfall from UAC it does not mean it is a failure. For example UAC in June this year gave 100mm and above rainfall to many places in SAP and CTN. So next UAC around 24th July can give good rainfall to Chennai. In the past Chennai has got good rainfall from UACs.
What is the basis for classifying rains as “good” or “bad”?
5cm and above as good. 2-5 cm as moderate. Less than 2cm as bad.
even cuddalore or chidambaram got 100 MM.
Yes, so we cannot discard UAC.
UAC is not a failure. but we surely need to study y it is failing with chennai continuously. there will be a reason
If the factors which is supporting S.AP as of now the same if it prevails here we would have got. Nature is Unique
UACs which forms before SWM season, tend to give good rainfall to N/NE quadrant of the UAC. This year most of the time Chennai came under SW quadrant of the UAC,i.e, it was above Chennai latitude. So it did not get good rainfall from previous UAC.
If only N/NE quadrant provide Rains means the UAC should be over Interior Tamilnadu for Chennai to get Rains is it!
Not all the time. UAC which forms before SWM onset gives good rainfall to N/NE quadrant and the ones which forms in SWM season gives good rainfall to W/SW quadrant and during NEM gives good rainfall to E/NE quadrant of the system.
Now the UAC is over Central BOB then how South AP gets Rain it didn’t falls under W/SW quadrant though. I feel only the Wind Confluence helped for Rains in S.AP
then uac should form below chennai latitude
UAC which forms before SWM onset gives good rainfall to N/NE quadrant and the ones which forms in SWM season gives good rainfall to W/SW quadrant and during NEM gives good rainfall to E/NE quadrant of the system.
oh ok ok
what level??
500hpa
that is not land circulation, i could see only confluence.
If at all there is a circulation, dont say land circulation, you can CC over land, because land circulation has different meaning.
Pls see this
it is not completing a circle there, it is converging in that place, hence it has to be said as confluence.
Champions League T20 to be discontinued with immediate effect
IPL itself can be banned…it is for welfare of cricket.
fixing of matches not new in cricket, even one of the best player and caption Hansie Cronje fall to this trap and lost his life, did cricket banned by any country?
no no i am saying only IPL needs to be banned. cricket can stay. T20 made so many irreversible changes that polluted cricket
Rather than banning why we can’t stop watching and buying tickets
yes..thats also good.
punish the people who do wrong, let the game survive
That’s not possible…. Indian law is unique
in cricket the corruption charges going on even well before IPL came in to action, and t-20 heard of
Only core city missed UAC west, south and Northern opart of Chennai fgot good Rainfall from UAC which was formed around May Mid.
Ponneri – 91mm i remember
yes . May 16th – 91 mm
Was it because of UAC?
Yes around May Mid there was a UAC and around 11am there was a Monsterous TS over North/NW of Chennai
oh ok.. I was not following the blog that time..
It was a deluge. All the rain came in around 1 hr.
yes periyapalayam too got heavy rains
Good. Looking for another TS like that.
yes
ok Atchu. Thanks
Here is the Radar and pics of TS due to UAC on May Mid.
Wow God pics.. Thanks for bring out the radar.
♦ The upper air cyclonic circulation over westcentral Bay of Bengal off Tamilnadu & south
Coastal Andhra Pradesh, now lies over westcentral Bay of Bengal off north Tamilnadu &
south Coastal Andhra Pradesh coasts and extends upto 5.8 km above mean sea level.
“under its influence ,rainfall to happen in so &so places ..”.anywhere mentioned like tat in the report?
yes heavy rains for south coastal ap……light rains for ntn
are u sure?
Sel, we will get pounded tonight! As confluence happening just North of chennai
lets see
Rain is possible only around Midnight and Early Morning hours
yes
post that report here.. let me see
fewly wide spread rain for ap
scattered rainfall for tn
Scattered or Isolated …?
scattered
I see only isolated being mentioned for TN and Pondy , no idea which one u r referring to
Atchu ,,,
check this ..
Warning section contains nothing :
———————————————
15 July (Day1):♦ Heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur at a few places with extremely heavy falls over SubHimalayan West Bengal & Sikkim. Heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur at a few places over ArunachalPradesh and Assam & Meghalaya. Heavy rainfall would occur at isolated places over Bihar, Nagaland, Manipur,Mizoram & Tripura, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Coastal Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala.
16 July (Day 2):♦ Heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur at a few places over SubHimalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Assam & Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh and at isolated places over Bihar. Heavy rainfall would occur at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, East Uttar Pradesh,Gangetic West Bengal, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Coastal Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala.
17 July (Day 3):♦ Heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur at a few places over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and East Uttar Pradesh and at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir, West Uttar Pradesh, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala. Heavy rainfall would occur at isolated places over Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, West Bengal & Sikkim, Odisha, Assam & Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and South Interior Karnataka.
good at least monsoon is active in widespread range of country,
Yes , it is their time …
Rs1000 bet….vaanga ji
IMD
33.9°C
Trend(Last 5 Minute) : 0.48°C/hr
Max.(Since 8:30AM) : 33.9°C
Min.(Since 8:30AM) : 27.9°C
Below Normal Temperatures atleast due to this UAC
Real feel is what matters more
Real Feel shows 40’C but Little Bit comfortable than yesterday.
mouli, r u comparing may month UAC with tis one? tat system is a very different one..it had an impact at surface level reduced teh surface pressure, lower level winds were from east. Tis one is completely different one.. moreover tat system was due to a wave activity
check the lower level winds of tat system and lower level winds of current situation..
easterly winds were strong at that time, actually i felt that NEM 2014 was continuing till May.
yes UAC is useful only when lower level winds also supports the flow like what v see in nem or early oct system
yes, but mid level wind direction should be changing today evening according to lower level, hence it will support.
but Sel, we had UAC by 17th May only…
no..entire drama was in between may 10 and may 16th… i remember it very much
yes, the rain in my area was on 15th, 16th and 17th in the morning time.
16th saturday, we had terrific thunder, around 200 homes lost their electronic items, i read this news on 17th dinamalar, they were mentioning my area and said that.
S on 18th i believe entire tn was battered kamatchipuram 22cm pondicherry 8 tirumangalam 14etc
yeah oka okay..got it.. first 3 days it was serving s.tn and later north tn
What is different between Convergence and confluence in simple terms?
Convergence is stronger winds moving into weaker winds in the same line of action (straight line). Confluence involves winds approaching each other with different angles.
Simply superb. Thanks.
Today morning its pleasant in marina winds from the north east with drops of rain but cannot be termed as drizzle and not disturbing the morning walk , i enjoyed it
good to see..btw another one to arrive tonight..it’s ecmwf nem outlook
yes selvan, ecmwf and one more to add is Jamstec.
Time now is 2:30 pm, but nothing in radar, I know this is too much from my side to expect rain at this time but anyhow let’s see
FYI, Radar not working for the past 2 hours..
What r u expecting? Looks like u didn’t read my message yesterday
Rain only btw I didn’t saw your message kea sir
let plan DRP(Disaster Recovery Plan).
Omg why?
Waiting for the rains to break!
Jupi,
During ELNINO years your concept will work.
Chennai – Less SWM Rain, Excess or Normal NEM.
Not only El Nino years but also la nina…
Ok tell me why should we prepare DRP plan?
excess NEM…
Oh okok
Yes deluge of 1500mm
Lol only in dream it is possible
Deluge of 1500 mm, even 2500 mm is possible, but maybe in Sohra or Agumbe and not Chennai!! So technically yes, it’s possible!!
Lol yes u are true
2500mm is not considered as deluge at all for agumbe its jst 1/3 of mean rf 🙂
By Chennai standards, even 2.5 mm is a deluge 🙂
nee semathiya vanga pora yenkita, measurement use panatha, it is not good for you.
What does local MET office say?!
When they say it will rain, you can be sure of scorching heat. And the converse is also true…
Lol
sun goes in completely.
Wide Spread heavy rains in Rayalaseema , Telangana and Coastal AP
Rainfall minimum 50 mm till 8 :30 am today
=============================
Pullampeta – 111 mm
Krishnagiri – 109 mm
Veldurti – 105 mm
Markapur – 104 mm
Hayathnagar – 100 mm
Panyam – 100 mm
Podili – 85 mm
Vikarabad – 84mm
Simhadripuram – 72 mm
Srisailam – 72 mm
Achampet – 72 mm
Garividi – 69 mm
Cheepurupalle – 66 mm
Srikalahasti – 65 mm
Nandigama – 65 mm
kanakanamitla – 60 mm
Pitlam – 58 mm
Muddanur – 56 mm
Kondapuram – 53 mm
Prakasam barriage – 54 mm
Jurala project – 54 mm
Marpalle – 52 mm
Bhuvanagiri – 51 mm
Mangalagiri – 50 mm
Omg kalahasti too 65??it has com real close then to mas
All four drought prone districts Anantapur Cuddapah Kurnool Chittor received very good rains till today morning
Chittor got good rains overnight
How about Kadapa?
Cuddapah 5 mm
As bad as Chennai…
Yes cuddapah Nellore ongole prakasam chittor ad some parts of kurnool Anantapur will receive good rains in NEM
https://disqus.com/home/discussion/keaweatherchennai/dry_weather_to_continue_in_tn/#comment-2135724511
Yes exactly South AP received good rains after a long time
Rayalseema seems to be Royalseems..
Madras region seems to be “Kaayalseema…
Thala, eppadi ippadiyellam…
@selvanfun
Here’s the reason for above normal NEM forecast from UK Met office! El Nino will continue to strengthen and a weak Positive IOD is the reason here! Indeed welcome news for us! 🙂
mosqui thooral here
Can anyone say that this is Useless Air Circulation after seeing South AP rainfall figures below posted by Kiran, that too in SWM season???
Useless for Chennai
Hmm but why chennai is not getting rain?
Renowned comedian, Thiru. Vadivelu has a solution, take Chennai and keep it where Cherrapunjee is, take Cherra and dump it where Chennai is!!
do u mean to say tat these rains are bcos of UAC?
the ridge was closer to SAP, the location is between ACC over NW India and UAC over Bay.
Rainbands again developing over north AP like yesterday….lot of pop ups
SA 19 for 2 in 8 overs against Bangladesh. KEA are you here?
Beware of Bangla, they will win WC soon
Heavy rain in Nalgonda from past 40 minutes..
Rains spreading south
Radar not working, it is stuck for the past 3 hours….
Now the sun is entering in low solar activity phase. So for next few years we can expect good rainfall in both SWM and NEM and la nina and cool neutral conditions in enso.
Next year will be a strong la nina
What does solar activity do actually?
Typical Bangalore monsoon weather today with occasional drizzles!
Bangalore monsoon weather in Chennai? That’s very good news..
Strong convergence over the interiors…
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=conv&zoom=Z&time=
Wen popos will pop
Check Maldives cam now
Nice and warm and perfect weather..
Btw also check Ayodhyakuppam or Kolakaranpettai (a part of Mylapore, named so during British times) webcams..
Rains make the only difference :p
J/k dude..those names sound rather eponymous but such places do exist in Chennai!
700mb vorticity is high over chennai
Can we say dry team won ? :p
No… Wait
Till NEM?
still when