TN to face another Dry & Scorching Day

South West Monsoon continues to be in subdued state across most parts of the country except North & North-east regions. A series of severe weather making disturbances in the Western Pacific Ocean called typhoons may have indirectly influenced our monsoon rainfall by keeping the Bay of Bengal inactive. Heavy rains expected across Northwest India, including J&K, Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand along with northern plains of UP and Bihar. Monsoon will get a small booster as a Monsoon Low is expected to form over west bengal coast off North Bay in about 4-5 days.

Moderate Heat wave like conditions are likely to prevail across N.TN and Pondicherry for few more days until a shift in wind patterns occurs with the Monsoon Low formation. Day time temperatures across TN, especially in the northern parts will remain 1 – 2 degree C above normal for a day or two.
02. Meteosat5
Chennai – Scorcher of a day expected with maximum temperature touching 39-40C yet again.

Coimbatore will be cloudy with temperatures settling close to 33-34C.

Madurai to see partly hazy skies with day time highs close to 38-39C

580 thoughts on “TN to face another Dry & Scorching Day

  1. The dew point temperature is only 19 C in kea metsite, the air is considerably dry for this time of the day!

  2. Today Temperature is expected to be less than 40.5. Some popups will occur and isolated chance of TS over isolated places of North Interior tamilnadu.

  3. Pleasant and Cool breeze from West. Wind Direction slightly changing to west Expecting Sea breeze to set Early Today before 2.30pm.
    Need to Watch closely.

    Currently
    Temp – 29.8
    24hrs Diff : -1.1’C

  4. Model predictions suggest that there will likely be no major revival of monsoon for the next 20 days, leading to below-normal rains for July.

    The monsoon will be confined to the foothills of the Himalayas until last week of July, says an extended forecast from the Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.

    Largely dry

    Excess rain in the region is expected to fill up the rivers of north India while central and peninsular India may stay largely dry. The US Climate Prediction Centre concurs with this outlook for the next fortnight, though it does not rule out a round of showers for east and central India from enhanced activity in the Bay of Bengal.

    Unlike earlier projections, models do not see an organised weather system (low-pressure area) from the Bay piloting the showers over the landmass during this period. A best-case scenario is that conducive conditions for a monsoon revival may evolve by around July 25 after the busy typhoon season ends in the west Pacific.
    Courtesy.. Business line

  5. Upper air cyclonic circulation over Coastal areas of west Bengal extending upto 5.8km a.s.l presist. As per model guidance a low pressure area may form during next 72hrs.

    Western disturbance as an upper air circulation extending upto 5.8km a.s.l presist.

    Heavy rains would occur over jammu and Kashmir, delhi, Kolkata, west Bengal

    Light rains would occur over konkan coast during next 24-48hrs.

    Chennai is expected to be hot today as well with temperatures would be around 39.6-40.7c .with early sea breeze would provide respite to chennai from heat.

    Precipitation charts
    Temperature charts for today

  6. Pleasant morning expecting another hot day for Chennai. But seeing the first signs of heavy rains within 2-3 days hope it comes true.

  7. ‘India Has World’s Best Weather Forecast’
    The greatest improvement,has been made by the people working for IMD and its sister organisations. Though weather observation has been done for decades using advanced systems, the Indian forecasters have achieved in last four to five years what others have in last several decades.
    DG, IMD Dr LS Rathore said, the responsibility on the forecasters has increased manifold with use of advanced technologies and now human error is not acceptable.

    http://www.newindianexpress.com/states/odisha/India-Has-Worlds-Best-Weather-Forecast/2015/07/07/article2906828.ece

  8. Yesterday’s minimum temperatures in OMAN
    Al Amirat -38.2 degrees
    Muscut – 37.8 degrees
    Qalhat – 37.6 degrees
    Suwaiq – 36.1 degrees
    Kuwait on 4 july Maximum temperatures
    Mitribah -50.6 degrees
    Jahra – 50.6 degrees
    Kuwait international airport – 50.3 degrees
    Sulaibia – 50.0 degrees

  9. Delhi: Areas around Ayanagar, Palam and Safdarjung received rainfall between 6 mm and 14 mm. However, places around Delhi University, Narela and Ridge showed zero showers.According to the India Meteorological Department, Delhi will experience rainfall for the next one week.
    source: India today

  10. LUCKNOW: The observatory at Hanuman Setu recorded 50mm rains from Sunday night till Monday morning and the one at Amausi recorded 22.6mm in the same period.Faizabad recorded 190mm rains on Monday, highest in the state followed by Shahbad and Meerut 130mm each.
    source: t.o.i

  11. Most of the comments have at least one ’40” in them. Please make THE 40 the featured comment of the day

  12. Chennai sizzles as mercury soars.
    Chennai sizzled in a heat-wave like condition as the mercury level soared to a new high on Monday. The day temperature touched the decade’s highest of 40.7 degrees Celsius in the city.The weather observatory at Meenambakkam too recorded 40.3 degrees Celsius. Monday’s temperature is close to the all-time high of 41.1 degrees Celsius recorded on July 4, 1915.
    The weather might change after July 9, said Y.E.A Raj, former Deputy Director General of Meteorology, Chennai.
    http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/chennai/chennai-sizzles-as-mercury-soars/article7393511.ece

  13. Active Pacific Region Contributing to Weakened Monsoon: IMD Chief.
    Between June 1 and July 5, India has received 207.8 mm rain against the normal of 206.7 mm.
    Director General of India Meteorological Department (IMD) Dr LS Rathore said. There is an improvement in rainfall intensity expected from today onwards for the next ten days when the monsoon will become active (mostly over North and East).

    He, however, stuck to the unimpressive monsoon forecast of IMD saying that an overall 12 percent deficit is expected during the season. Although there will be some improvement, the factors are not conducive for a good monsoon. “First El Nino, now Madden Julian Oscillation and oceanic conditions are not in favour of a good monsoon,” he said.

    http://www.newindianexpress.com/states/odisha/Active-Pacific-Region-Contributing-to-Weakened-Monsoon-IMD-Chief/2015/07/06/article2905603.ece

  14. This is my personal opinion, there may be reasons for every one, over the period we are losing some of our experts, let y’day be the last day for such things, i sincerely hope Raoji will return again, and all experts will contribute,

  15. Right from south coastal odhisha to central tamilnadu coast under mini heat wave..mostly 39 crossed in that all areas.
    With peak between machillipatnam and Pondhichery

  16. Latest on ENSO WRAP UP

    Due to more cyclones or typhoons in Pacific has resulted in triggering Westerly Trade Winds, this will increase SST over the region. Strong ELNINO expected in few months.
    Nino 3 – 1.8C, increased 0.1C.
    Nino 3.4 – 1.4C, remains same.
    Nino 4 – 1.0C, reduced 0.1C in the last 2 weeks.
    SOI – 16.7, strong ELNINO values.

    IOD likely to become Positive, but not strong enough to overcome ELNINO, but 0.5C value can be touched this month and continue till September and start to weak from October.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Sea-surface
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Trade-winds
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

  17. Tropical cyclone activity may boost El Niño

    The 2015 El Niño is likely to strengthen in the coming weeks, largely due to recent tropical cyclone activity. Several tropical cyclones, including a rare July cyclone in the southern hemisphere, have resulted in a strong reversal of trade winds near the equator. This is likely to increase temperatures below the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which may in turn raise sea surface temperatures further in the coming months.

    All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest El Niño will persist until at least the end of 2015. Models also indicate that further warming is likely. Historically, El Niño reaches peak strength during late spring or early summer.

    El Niño is typically associated with below-average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country during the second half of the year. However, the strength of El Niño does not always determine the strength of its effect on Australia’s climate. Read more about how El Niño might affect Australia.

    Many other factors, such as the state of the Indian Ocean, also influence Australia’s climate. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Of the five international models that provide IOD outlooks, three suggest a positive IOD is likely during the southern hemisphere spring. A positive IOD is typically associated with reduced winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern and central Australia.

  18. El Niño likely to strengthen during spring

    El Niño remains in the tropical Pacific with model outlooks suggesting more warming is likely. Sea surface temperature (SST) indices across the Pacific all exceed El Niño thresholds, with collective values not seen since the 1997-98 El Niño. Overall, atmospheric indicators of ENSO remain consistent with El Niño, despite a temporary strengthening of the trade winds in recent weeks.

    All models indicate SSTs in the central tropical Pacific (NINO3.4) will rise to at least 1.5 °C above average by September with the average of all eight models suggesting a +2.0 °C temperature anomaly. The most recent NINO3.4 value is +1.3 °C for the week ending 14 June 2015. NINO3.4 values above +0.8 °C typically indicate El Niño.

    The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can affect Australian climate from May through to the end of spring. Three out of five models that issue IOD forecasts suggest the potential of a positive IOD event developing by late winter, with the other two models maintaining a mostly neutral outlook. Positive IOD events tend to reduce rainfall in southern and central Australia during the winter and spring months, and can exacerbate rainfall deficiencies caused by El Niño.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/models/enso_dial_00.png?1436246088563?10

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/models/enso_dial_01.png?1436246088563?10

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/models/enso_dial_02.png?1436246088563?10

  19. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) outlook

    The IOD can affect Australian climate during the months of May to November. Three out of five model outlooks suggest some tendency towards a positive IOD by spring 2015, while the other two tend towards a neutral outlook. A positive IOD typically reduces rainfall in central and southern Australia, and can therefore exacerbate El Niño driven rainfall deficiencies.

    The most recent IOD index value is +0.1 °C for the week ending 14 June 2015 following three weeks at +0.4 °C. Sustained IOD index values above +0.4 °C typically indicate a positive IOD event.

    The following graph shows the average forecast value of the IOD index for each international model surveyed for the selected calendar month. If the majority of models are approaching or exceeding the blue dashed line, then there is an increased risk of a negative IOD event. If the majority of models are approaching or exceeding the red dashed line, then there is an increased risk of a positive IOD event.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/models/iod_summary_2.png?1436246088563?10

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/models/iod_summary_4.png?10

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/models/iod_summary_6.png?10

  20. @velayudhams:disqus
    Please stop copy/pasting. The last 3 comments, you have copied and pasted from partha links. We do not want to see this anymore.

  21. Imd showing for chennai temperature is 6 degrees above normal?
    So it should be 34-35 max?
    Is this true

  22. Guys,

    It is not just copying and pasting, i have already posted that comment, why is he repeatedly posting the same?

    It is duplicate, It happened to me also. In a fraction of seconds time difference myself and vela posted the same comment, but Vela asked me to delete it.

  23. Yesterday Temp 40.7c – 105.26F..is almost near to 100 yrs record..41.1-105.98F…Yesterday it created a record by touching 105 degree fah after 100 years in july month..

  24. Today NW winds r dominating more than SW winds from morning compare to yesterday.. it won’t be like yesterday after 3pm & breeze may set earlier too..

  25. BREAKING: 1 dead, 4 injured in Washington ice cave collapse http://ow.ly/Pgx6P

    One person is dead after a collapse at the Big Four Ice Caves on Monday night in the Mt. Baker – Snoqualmie National Forest.

    Three adults and one child were injured, according to the Snohomish County Sheriff’s Office. The Big Four Ice Caves area is closed until further notice while search and rescue teams assess the area for recovery of the deceased victim, according to the sheriff’s office and the U.S. Forest Service. The ice is fragile at the caves because of hot weather and rock fall from overhead.

    The Forest Service issued a warning in May about sections of the cave collapsing, causing concern for visitors to the area.

    The initial call came in to 911 around 5:38 p.m. PDT Monday, with the partial collapse occurring about 45 minutes earlier.

    The Sheriff’s Office helicopter rescue team reached the three seriously injured people and transported them to the Big Four Ice Caves picnic area, where they were delivered to AirLift Northwest.

  26. Quick view on BOM Update

    Strong Madden–Julian Oscillation in the western Pacific region
    – Near-record strength Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) over western Pacific region
    – Rare tropical cyclone formed in southwest Pacific Ocean
    – Multiple tropical storms active in northwest and central Pacific regions

    El Niño consolidates in tropical Pacific
    – Reversal of trade winds in western Pacific likely to warm tropical Pacific Ocean further
    – Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values strongly negative
    – Climate models indicate El Niño will persist until at least the end of the year

  27. current temp is warmer than what it was 24 hours ago. If we don’t get early sea breeze. We could challenge for the record today

  28. another half hour heating is enough to beat the record. We might not get the half hour heating though

    • Yes Partha.. Relative humidity is 72% at 700 HPA but its poor at the surface and 850 HPA level. I see that even pressure has dropped a bit.. Its considerably less than yesterday. I would just like to experiment by saying that TS activity might be there along 13N latitude.and btw there is 95% RH at 700 HPA over bangalore. Let’s see

  29. I told earlier ..that Today NW winds r dominating more than SW winds from morning compare to yesterday.. it won’t be like yesterday after 3pm & breeze may set earlier too..
    But 40c touched..may be today is the last 40c of the year ( hoping)..

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