Monsoon cranks up in north bay

keaweather 2015, KEA Blog, SWM-2015

An upper air cyclonic circulation has formed in the North Bay which will increase the rainfall activity over West Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand and Northeast India. Scattered thunderstorms will also be seen over parts of north AP and Chhattisgarh. The offshore trough over the West Coast will continue to remain weak over the next couple of days leading to weak rainfall activity. This offshore trough is expected to strengthen later next week due to southward dip of monsoon trough, which will once again bring back the Arabian Sea monsoon branch alive.
TN will remain hot and dry with isolated thunderstorm activity in a few places. Day Time Temperature will gradually rise over North TN in coming days.

02. Meteosat5
Chennai will continue to remain hot with maximum temperatures lingering closer to 40C. Clear skies can be seen in day time, turning cloudy by late evening . There is a chance of light showers in some areas during late evening/night.

Coimbatore is expected to be on the warmer side with temperature closing in on 33C with possibility of light showers in some parts of the city.

Madurai will have temperatures around 39-40C with partly cloudy skies.

981 thoughts on “Monsoon cranks up in north bay”

  6. Clear sky with some cirrus clouds.
    Very pleasant with cool breeze from west now. Conditions perfect for Thunderstorms.

    Reply

  7. From tomorrow or Saturday onwards electric Thunder squall possible for chennai rainfall amount will be more than 20mm in chennai

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      • can anyone walk without energy (generated by eating food)? for any rainfall events starting from simple TS to big super cyclones, trade wind carried moisture support is must. Due to decrease in SOI & IOD, trade winds weakened considerably.

        To our lucky SOI is going to increase from tomorrow/day after tomorrow onwards till July 7th/8th. During this period again trade winds will pick up.

      • Between June 3rd-9th, as SOI is increasing trend. So definitely SWM will revive (but not fully).

  10. As expected both vortexes are merging to single vortex. This merging phenomenon will increase Typhoon CHAN-HOM’s intensity further. As usual MJO (close to phase 7 with amplitude 3) pumping series of cloud-convections bursts into the typhoon.

    To know the merging phenomenon see the 24 hrs OLD satellite picture. Also see the 850 mb vorticity picture.

    850 mb vorticity: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms&prod=vor&zoom=&time=
    24 hrs OLD: http://s1.postimg.org/9a29v3ain/old.gif
    latest merging figure: http://s13.postimg.org/6lpubvxmv/wgmsir.gif

    Reply

  11. As expected earlier 2 vortexes started merging thus completion “double vortex merging concept (Figure 1)”. So according to 2D-Gyric map model indicated in Figure 1, WP-typhoon “CHAN-HOM” will target directly S-Korea.

    2D-gyric map model track prediction by “DOUBLE vortex concept” (Figure 1):

    2D-gyric map model track prediction by “SINGLE vortex concept” (Figure 2):

    Reply

    • Partha, It may weaken nearing S-Korea (weakening is a common phenomenon in nearing the coasts), but this may not prevent it to attain cat.5 status just E/NE to Taiwan/Philippines (ECMWF indicating MSLP to drop down to 925 hpa).

      Reply

  13. In 1987 elnino year ,break in monsoon sustained for full 21 days .unexpected lull phase started by mid july, lasted till august 4th and marked it has one of the longest break phase!!

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    • all articles regarding this topic in all dailies coming based on IMD forecast, let us see what is in store

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      • between july 4th-10th, ECMWF expecting (GFS not indicating) land based Depression to traverse along central INDIA till West-coast. This may reduce the rain deficits partially.

  17. Bombay HC: Why are weather forecasts not accurate?
    The Bombay high court on Wednesday asked a question everyone would like to ask the Indian Meteorological Department here: Why are its weather forecasts not accurate? The query from a division bench of Chief Justice Mohit Shah and Justice Anil Menon came when a public interest litigation by advocate Atal Dubey regarding the recent floods was mentioned before it for fixing a hearing date. Dubey sought a direction to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) to hold a probe against persons responsible for it.
    ” The judges said they would hear the matter and would like to add IMD as a party as there is a need for more accurate weather forecasts.
    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/Bombay-HC-Why-are-weather-forecasts-not-accurate/articleshow/47903349.cms

    Reply

    • lol… the person responsible for this is Nature (GOD). After completion of the hearings, Bombay HC will find a good story for PK-2 movie/OMG-2 movie (as PK sequel/OMG sequel)

      Reply

  18. Remember many here have been asking in the past that Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have higher temperatures than the Indian Sub continent and why Monsoon rains don’t reach them in-spite of such high temps.Sahara desert for that reason to some extent. The main reason is that , the heat over that area builds only HEAT LOWS, which are overturning shallow cells . They are not more than 3 km in height . So , deep convection , moisture transport and associated moist dynamics are completely absent. They can only lead to fair weather cumulus build ups at the max.
    The Jacobabad Low is a Heat Low , whereas the Monsoon Trough is a DYNAMIC LOW

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  19. Land D or DD expected to form over WB and Adjoining North Bay.

    First a LOW will be forming over the region on 06th and rapidly intensify into a D and then DD possible.

    This will move W or WSW direction towards Odisha, Chattisgarh and South MP till 11th. This movement is influenced by mid level steering winds.

    http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/120hgfs_850wind.htm

    http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hgfs_500wind.htm

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  20. abrupt flow of monsoon winds..n-nw winds dominates most parts of arb sea& anticyclone builds near w.central india

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  21. Courtsey: Michael Hauber: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=1064.800

    In his words:
    The 2015 figure is obviously year to date. Are the previous year’s figures year to date or for the entire year? WWB activity tends to strengthen later in an el nino year (but move further east), so this year’s figure could come out even higher if this trend continues. From watching TAO TRITON data I have noticed that this year the westerly activity has been more consistent than 97, but I’m pretty sure that the stronger westerly wind bursts in the first half of 97 were significantly stronger and over a larger area than they have been this year. This seems to be reflected by the fact that current subsurface temperatures in the east Pacific were a lot warmer by now in 97. Even still the surface is warmer than same date 97, and the major models show a high chance of beating 97

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  22. More evidence that global warming is intensifying extreme weather
    A new study finds that global warming is causing weather whiplash.
    In particular, the authors focused on pressure levels up into the atmosphere (heights of approximately 5 km) from 1979 onwards. Those patterns gave information about atmospheric circulation. The authors grouped the patterns, using seven geographical regions (Europe, Western Asia, Central Asia, Eastern Asia, Western North America, Central North America, and Eastern North America) and four different periods of the year (winter, spring, summer and fall).
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/jul/01/more-evidence-that-global-warming-is-intensifying-extreme-weather

    Reply

  23. 18 KILLED IN LANDSLIDES IN DARJEELING DISTRICT

    At least 18 people have been killed in landslides triggered by heavy rains in Darjeeling, Kalimpong and Kurseong sub—divisions of Darjeeling district since Tuesday night, an officer said .The landslides have caused extensive damage to NH 10 (old NH 55A) and NH 55, cutting off road and telecommunication link to Darjeeling and Sikkim. 25 landslips were reported in the three sub-divisions – PTI

    Reply

  24. INDIA, CHINA SUFFER HEAVILY DUE TO AIR POLLUTION

    India and China suffer over USD 1.89 trillion annually in terms of the value of lives lost and ill health caused from air pollution, according to a report. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development in its report, the 2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change says the implications of climate change for a population of nine billion people threatens to undermine the last half century of gains in development and global health.PTI

    Reply

  25. A team of students in a class called the Physics and Mathematics of Sustainable Energy met last term with companies in Portland to determine if it would make economic sense to bring an anaerobic digester, an apparatus used to break down organic waste, to a dairy farm on Mount Desert Island. And projects continue to move ahead from a programme started last year that sent about a dozen students to Samso, a Danish island that produces more energy from renewable sources than it uses. That programme has already resulted in bulk purchases of energy-efficient lighting, heating products and energy upgrades.

    http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-in-school/students-gear-up-to-tackle-climate-change/article7375905.ece

    Reply

  29. It looks stock-markets in India and across Asia going to plunge-down today based on Greece-financial crisis.

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  30. This summer has just been too long.. We are in July and still 40+ looks possible. Horrible

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  31. Omg foreca showing temp to hit consistently 40c from Saturday with peaking only Tuesday with 42c and monde 41c, secondary phase summer in full flow

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      • Shift in Monsoon Trough axis towards the foothills of the Himalayas , and with no active systems around the seas on either side, shift in wind patterns for us, lack of rains on west coast. All these could attribute to this rise in temps.

      • I think we have seen this type of conditions in the past too but that time we didn’t record this much temp and why only this year, is elnino is one of the reason

      • Vignesh, we have seen such cases earlier too. El nino might be one reason coinciding with break in Monsoon during a wet month. Cloudiness values reducing in July can affect surface temps. more unlike August/Sep

      • if possible we should try to publish this reason also in tmrw’s paper, this will help more people to get awareness, and will help them to be safe

      • Omg then early strong sea breeze is the only one can save us from this, moreover car you explain why temp anomaly is expected to increase than normal that too at July any specific reason

    • Is Chennai the only place in TN which is suffering from such heat? I didn’t hear of hot weather anywhere else in TN

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      • No coastal areas of sap ntn will see this temp and also interiors so this can be termed as our seconds phase of summer

  33. The first two pics shows that MJO at VP 200 HPA has suppressed the moisture over the entire country.

    The second pic shows that Westward Wave is bringing moisture to North Bay, it is likely to hit east coast by 04th. I think it comes with high intensity, lets wait and see for the impact.

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  34. What’s really weird is that Vellore is struggling to hit 38! It’s surrounded by rocky terrain which is ideal for extreme day time heating. And Chennai is supposed to be the place with sea nearby. What an irony… Does any body know the reason for this? Experts?

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    • July records (KEA weather summary) for the past 10 years show 2006 and 2009 had lot of days of 38+ spread over the month, while other years only the first week went above 38.

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  36. What a relief from heat in hyderabad…moderate rains in uppal ghatkesar narapally jodimetla LB nagar…
    temperature 24 degrees in uppal infy
    drizzles in kurnool mahaboobnagar and heavy rain in bhuvanagiri over night

    Reply

  38. Planning to go tirupati tomorrow…hoping for monsoon rains till cuddapah and thunderstoms in tirupati tirumala

    Reply

  39. The next MJO effect, Medium Tropical Storm expected in East Pacific in next 48 hours.

    Since MJO likely to start weakening in Phase 7 itself in next 48 hours, the TS probability has become in Medium in East Pacific, otherwise it would have been stronger one.

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    • i have a doubt, forecasts say Chennai going to witness historic temp/ above normal temp, this week, why this has been missing in the above, any experts pl, clarify me

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      • Where ? ? ?

        In the title itself already specified ………….
        Chennai will continue to remain hot with maximum temperatures lingering closer to 40C

      • from 4th to 7th is when the anomalies are +4 deg C,
        It shows 43C on 7th – all these comments are based on forecast’s only isnt?

      • but forecasts by agencies showing possibility of 43 * this week, which is more than 100 year record

  48. It looks like a typical August kind of day in bangalore , blue skies with lots of cumulus clouds..conditions looking good for rain but no model is predicting rain today!

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  60. A brave crow has been photographed catching a free ride on the back of a bald eagle 25-feet in the air. The unusual moment lasted only a few seconds and was captured by amateur bird photographer Phoo Chan.

    Reply

  66. TS confined to West of Chennai??

    Thing I found on why TS mostly not reaching Chennai or a weak one is reaching?

    Large cumulus and cumulonimbus requires an inflow of moist air in the lower levels. In fact,
    the sea breeze can provide the moisture to help form thunderstorm clouds.

    First on a cloudy day convection currents over the land (due to solar heating) are prevented
    or restricted. Thus the sea breeze circulation does not develop to any appreciable extent, and
    on many occasions of cloud cover will be non-existent.

    The location and amount of thunderstorms will vary depending on the overall weather pattern
    over the region. For example, the amount of sunshine and prevailing surface wind over the region has a large impact on sea breeze thunderstorms. If the wind is relatively calm then sea breeze can move well inland but with only scattered thunderstorms occurring about 1/3rd of the
    way across the region.

    2015 for example so far:
    The sea breeze front most of the time moving far interior means there was no lifting of warm
    air happening near the coast. The front move far interior and the sea breeze remains stronger
    near the coast, then the coastal belts will not get thunderstorms. It means that the lifting of air
    is happening inside the land and cumulus not moving towards coast or does not remain stronger while moving. Hence there is every chance that TS develops inside the land will weaken while
    reaching the coast.

    If the front stays near the coast or approx near to the Bermuda circle, then it seems that land
    breeze lifting above and cumulus or cumulonimbus will form. Once the cumulus or cumulonimbus formation begins this will push or weaken the sea breeze at lower levels and westerly winds will
    pick once again. Once this scenario happens, we can expect strong and widespread thunderstorms near the coast land.

    To Summarize:
    Finally, the sea breeze should not be too strong, hence it will not push the land breeze far
    inside, so the lifting happens far interior, hence the cumulus or cumulonimbus does not reach
    the coast.

    OR

    If even the TS forms in interior, the wind at upper level should become stronger enough to
    push cumulus towards coast, once this clouds near the coast the lower level sea breeze
    decreases its strength, so that the TS movement towards the coast is not disturbed.

    I hope that I have come closer to find out the reason for TS not entering the 30KM circle of Chennai.

    Hope this becomes featured???

    Reply

    • I am also noticing this for a past few weeks. Good point. There should an ideal condition for the storms to reach the coast, the moisture, the obstructing winds and the upper level winds all plays the role.

      Reply

    • July is famous for severe Night TS..we can see & hear a non-stop lightning flash & rumbling thunders..

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      • Actually September is more famous for late night TS. The storms which travels all the way from places like Krishnagiri, Kolar etc..

      • In june & august..we will evening TS..from 5pm-9pm, & july – after 9pm or midnight, In September, around 3pm -7pm..in october ( till 18th)..we will be spectators..

      • july august…mostly after 7pm, september after 5pm..sometime late night

      • Then what about the break rule during summer…it will be 3-4 months break rule theory.. 🙂

      • In simple logic..we can tell..if it rain today..it won’t rain tomorrow..thats due to less moisture..but its not like that..last month..it rained only 1 day from 24-30..then it will comes under 72 hr break rule..we have seen continuous 3 day TS also in swm..so its all depend on monsoon flow, winds level & scenarios in bob & arab sea..

      • So I’ve named that process, if there is no system in bay then these rains occurs after a break besides moisture level is key with vs factor

    • late only….during may we used to get sea breeze at 1.30itself….but now its almost 3

      Reply

  76. நகரப் பகுதியில் வாகனங்கள் பெருக்கத்தால் காற்றில் வெப்பம் அதிகரித்து மழை இல்லை: மரம் வளர்க்க ரமணன் வேண்டுகோள் – தி இந்து – http://m.tamil.thehindu.com/tamilnadu/நகரப்-பகுதியில்-வாகனங்கள்-பெருக்கத்தால்-காற்றில்-வெப்பம்-அதிகரித்து-மழை-இல்லை-மரம்-வளர்க்க-ரமணன்-வேண்டுகோள்/article7361911.ece

    Reply

  80. omg
    பிரபல கார் நிறுவனத்தில் பரபரப்பு: ‘ஊழியரை கொன்ற ரோபோhttp://tamil.thehindu.com/world/%E0%AE%AA%E0%AE%BF%E0%AE%B0%E0%AE%AA%E0%AE%B2-%E0%AE%95%E0%AE%BE%E0%AE%B0%E0%AF%8D-%E0%AE%A8%E0%AE%BF%E0%AE%B1%E0%AF%81%E0%AE%B5%E0%AE%A9%E0%AE%A4%E0%AF%8D%E0%AE%A4%E0%AE%BF%E0%AE%B2%E0%AF%8D-%E0%AE%AA%E0%AE%B0%E0%AE%AA%E0%AE%B0%E0%AE%AA%E0%AF%8D%E0%AE%AA%E0%AF%81-%E0%AE%8A%E0%AE%B4%E0%AE%BF%E0%AE%AF%E0%AE%B0%E0%AF%88-%E0%AE%95%E0%AF%8A%E0%AE%A9%E0%AF%8D%E0%AE%B1-%E0%AE%B0%E0%AF%8B%E0%AE%AA%E0%AF%8B/article7378168.ece?homepage=true

    Reply

  83. Late setting of sea breeze is good, inviting TS to coast as per the comment i have saved in technical stuff. The front is very very important phenomenon to trace the sea breeze, it is purely basic.

    The front plays vital role in bringing TS to coastal areas. If front goes far interior, then it is tough for coast to get rainfall, lets see how much interior the front goes today.

    Reply

  84. Dark bue coloured stunning clouds all over hyderabad…Rains in Ghatkesar uppal and secunderabad…SWM active today

    Reply

  85. We need pops near vellore or south of vellore to get rain here let’s see if it materialise or not and also sea breeze front moving slowly inland

    Reply

  88. NEWS FLASH:

    There is no threat to paddy crop despite IMD forecast of deficient rains this month: Agriculture Secretary Siraj Hussain

    Reply

  91. Just relax – it is still hot and humid – What did the rain cloud wear under his rain coat? A: Thunder wear! (since it has rain, thunder cloud i have posted)

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  94. Blog is really struggling today. In spite of so many bloggers, only 248 comments today.
    Where as our competitors in spite of having only 2 or 3 bloggers are closing in on 100 already.
    Maybe its the heat getting to all.

    Reply

  95. I Bet We Will Not Cross 1000 mm This Year If We Match With IMD Rainfall Figures!
    IMD have to do maintenance For their RG or Buy A New one!!!

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  96. Solid cloud just above our house, sure shot of Vs Ts today and the sea breeze well settled here

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    • Yes this will grow a bit with the help of sea breeze which is moving inland in steady pace

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  100. We are seeing some stratocumulus over head. Just read about it somewhere.

    Most often, stratocumulus produce no precipitation, and when they do, it is generally only light rain or snow. However, these clouds are often seen at either the front or tail end of worse weather, so they may indicate storms to come, in the form of thunderheads or gusty winds. They are also often seen underneath the cirrostratus and altostratus sheets that often precede a warm front, as these higher clouds decrease the sun’s heat and therefore convection, causing any cumulus clouds to spread out into stratocumulus.

    Reply