Monsoon Stirs a bit, Chennai receives least rainfall in 15 years

Chennai Nungambakkam ended with 20.4 mm of rainfall this June, which is the least rainfall since 2000.

A Low Pressure area continues to spin as it remains embedded inside the Indian Monsoon Trough close to Uttar Pradesh. This has helped the Monsoon trough to stay marginally active with rains across the Gangetic plains. This system would move slowly along the Monsoon trough yielding rains in UP, Uttarakhand and foothills of the Himalayas. Arunachal Pradesh is set to witness heavy rains alongside other North-Eastern states. Kerala and coastal Karnataka will also receive rains from a feeble off-shore trough in the vicinity along the west coast. Much of TN will witness the text book style rain shadow effect of the Southwest Monsoon rains, with T’Storms popping up later in the evening/night.
02. Meteosat5
Chennai will continue to remain dehydrated owing to hot westerlies with sea breeze coming to rescue later during the day. Mercury levels could rise to 38-39 C, with a slight possibility of isolated T’storms in eve/night.

Coimbatore to see patches of low level clouds with sunny conditions with the thermometer settling close to 32-33 C, with chances of light rain.

Madurai to witness clear blue skies with temperatures hitting 38-39 C

761 thoughts on “Monsoon Stirs a bit, Chennai receives least rainfall in 15 years

    • due to power of june 27-30’s Rami’s prediction πŸ™‚ Overall this june 27-30 rainfall prediction given some respite from complete dry patch under evolving strong Elnino coupled with neutral to -ve IOD (indicative of lowest moisture transport with weaker trade winds).

      As the limit given (june 27-30) is completed, now onwards Chennai & suburbs will see the real 2nd summer.

  1. OMG…ECMWF taking WP-super typhoon to direct South-Korea landfall. Initially ECMWF taking system to japan-landfall. Now they changed to S-Korea landfall.

    But 2D-gyric map model predicted this direct S-Korea landfall before ECMWF’s πŸ™‚

  2. I have taken VRS by partial fail (by 0.5 mm with 3 min.delay) in prediction of wide-spread VS-TS for core-Chennai between june 27-30.

    So I am not bothering what going to happen for Chennai rainfall from july 1st onwards πŸ™‚

  3. Surprise heavy intensity Rains lashed Ambattur last night around 10.45. As per my RG 9mm its close to 1cm and my prediction of isolated showers is success πŸ˜‰

  4. Anna Nagar West (ANW) seems to have got a decent spell yesterday night. Small puddles still seen along the road sides.

  5. Once again skymet on warpath with IMD

    Private forecaster counters Met, sees normal rain in July
    Private weather forecaster Skymet is sticking to its prediction of a normal monsoon in the key month of July as well as the rest of the rainy season.

    The forecaster said on Tuesday that rain in July was likely to be 104% of normal, a prediction it had made in April. It also stood by its earlier forecast of the overall monsoon being 102% of the normal.

    β€œA long break (in monsoon) is being feared in July. We disagree,β€œ said Skymet CEO Jatin Singh in a statement, adding that although rain could take a β€œbreatherβ€œ between July 2 and 6, good spells were in store from 6 to 8, 14 to 17 and 23 to 26. Skymet’s prediction is at variance with India’s official weather agency IMD’s forecast of 92% rain in July , as also that of others such as US commercial forecaster AccuWeather, which sees a weakened monsoon in July due to the El Nino effect.

    For June, Skymet predicted 107% of normal rainfall, while the month ended with 116% rain.

    http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31807&articlexml=Private-forecaster-counters-Met-sees-normal-rain-in-01072015012039

    • yes sir, as usual according to my opinion “Skymet” going to win this rarest war of normal SWM-2015 prediction

      • Kea – Note that “Skymet” drawing attention across India – mileage goes up

      • above normal SWM in June along with rapid pace coverage of SWM, make them this mileage. If normal SWM-2015 forecast come true then SKYMET image will go rocket high πŸ™‚

      • Be it Skymet or any other forecasting agency. I guess one has to look in to long time history of getting things right up to 80% to comment if they ate good or reliable. The agency has just come recently and its too premature to judge things. There is always an element of Luck if I can say in getting ones forecast right. You may have observed. assessed , done some home work, still things may go wrong.
        If for instance, be it IMD or any other other met agency when it gets 70 to 80% right over a period of time, say about 15 or 20 years..Then one can say that they have got it right and consistent.

      • Shiva,
        we may not know whether skymet has any secret parameter in assessing SWM-forecast, which they are very consistent for the last 3 years (during last 3 years even beyond IMD and other international agencies faced troubles in forecasting SWM in 100% accuracy).

        Interestingly June-SWM 2015 turned 16% excess. lets see what going to happen in reality by September 30th, 2015.

    • Yes this is becoming true, too much rains in some places and little rains in other places will become normal, until nature balances itself.

  6. Wowooi
    Wowooi
    6 mm in my Area!!! Yesterday
    But Unfortunately June Ended With Only 38 mm

  7. OMG…ECMWF taking WP-super typhoon to direct South-Korea landfall. Initially ECMWF taking system to japan & east-china-landfall. Now they changed to S-Korea landfall.

    But 2D-gyric map model predicted this direct S-Korea landfall before ECMWF’s πŸ™‚

  8. Tamil Nadu will witness text book style rain shadow effect of the South West Monsoon rains…Fantastic reading..
    Right from the text book…Good going…

  9. Normal latitudinal movement of Sub Tropical Ridge at 200 hPa level over 77.5ΒΊE and surface Equatorial Trough off the east coast of India during October-January…

  10. Selvan,

    Remember u posting the same , a year or so back , am I rite ?

    Schematic diagram depicting the influence of April 200 hPa zonal winds, JJAS 150 hPa temperature, August-September 150 hPa zonal winds over extreme southern peninsula on NEM.

  11. 2D-gyric map model track prediction by “DOUBLE vortex concept” (Figure 1):

    1. MOST PRECISE TRACK, drawn considering west-side vortex interaction and its merging with main-vortex of typhoon.

    2. So according to this track South-Korea will bore the brunt of this super-typhoon’s fury by its direct landfall.

    3. This south-Korean landfall predicted based on 2D-gyric map model to ECMWF’s which showed East-china or Japan Landfall in earlier runs.

    4. Unsymmetrical extrapolated innermost convergence line arising due to double vortex concept.

    5. DILF drawn by fixing the innermost divergence line as there is “no near by land like BOB.”

    Figure 1: http://s22.postimg.org/fluj17m69/WP_double_latest.gif

    2D-gyric map model track prediction by “SINGLE vortex concept” (Figure 2):
    1. LESS PRECISE TRACK (compared to above double vortex track), drawn WITHOUT considering west-side vortex interaction.

    2. So according to this track JAPAN will bore the brunt of this super-typhoon’s fury by its direct landfall.

    3. This Japan landfall predicted based on 2D-gyric map model to GFS’s which showed East-china Landfall in earlier runs.

    4. Symmetrical innermost convergence line due to single vortex concept.

    5. DILF drawn by fixing the innermost divergence line as there is “no near by land like BOB.”

    Figure 2: http://s14.postimg.org/s100b56ch/WP_single.gif

    • Please don’t think that above diagrams’ are school children drawings. There is scientific gyric dynamics involved in the diagrams.

      Moreover this 2D-gyric map model completely depends on 2D-satllite pictures.

      No need any super computers to predict almost accurate-tracks well in advance when the system is at LPA/D/DD stages.

    • correction in the above figures:
      “outermost divergence line” must be changed to “innermost divergence line”

  12. Both 2D-Gyric map model and ECMWF indicating S-Korea landfall, but where as GFS showing Japan LF. So it looks once again why ECMWF is KING-model in predicting tropical systems’ track in more precisely all over the globe.

  13. I fail to understand why the SWM has already been declared a failure by some analysts. Mumbai has had excess, Gujarat and even Rajasthan have finished their yearly quota in a matter of days.

    Why, even our PM canceled his trip to Varanasi due to “heavy rainfall”. What is the basis for failure or success of an event? India is a huge landmass and it is not easy to predict accurately. If there is enough water for crops, usually they declare the monsoon a success.

      • The ONI equation is very tricky, El Nino might turn out to be a La Nina after all, and upset all calculations!

      • as already Nino is too warm and present WP-super typhoon going to generate strong WWB, then how you still are expecting Lanina in 2015?

      • Maybe not 2015. This winter will give a clearer picture. If the Arctic freezes solid once again (usually starts to freeze around September/ early fall), all calculations will go for a toss.

      • 2016 will be sure shot of Lanina.

        This we can know by severe snowfall over arctic and Europe regions in coming winter. This heavy snowfall over arctic and Eurasia will lead to lanina-2016 conditions (in the absence strong EKW).

      • Actually, very very simple equation. For the opposition parties, SWM is always a mega failure. For ruling party, it is always a mega success. This time, we have no opposition, so it is a mega success already. In fact, SWM will be a mega success for next 4 years.

  14. MONSOON FORECAST NORMAL FOR JULYIn July, I think the winners will be north, east, west and central India. South/Peninsular India could be at a loss. More specifically there is a risk of prolonged dry weather in North interior Karnataka and South interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Marathwada.I must mention that we are sticking to our April forecast of 102% of the LPA, without changes or qualifications. At Skymet we think 2015 is going to be a normal Monsoon.http://www.skymetweather.com/content/weather-news-and-analysis/ceos-take-monsoon-to-be-normal-in-july-2015/

  15. I don’t think we should consider IMD’s opinion at all. For the next 4 years we can ignore IMD forecasts and predictions since it will be 200% positive only for various reasons.

  16. June Witnessed 16 Per Cent More Rainfall, Says Met Department
    The east and northwest India, which initially recorded good amount of rainfall, has received just one per cent overall rains than its normal limits. The northeastern states of Nagaland, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Tripura have received 31 per cent deficient rainfall this month while Bihar has witnessed 27 per cent less rain than its normal limits.Several parts of the southern peninsula have witnessed deficient rainfall which includes the Andaman and Nicobar Islands (-21 per cent), Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry (-18 per cent), Kerala (-13 per cent).
    However, the Central (23 per cent) and Northwest India (31 per cent) have recorded a good rainfall.

    http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/june-witnessed-16-per-cent-more-than-normal-rainfall-imd-776908

  17. WeatherBug,

    How QBOONI is tricky? It is very firm and simple formula. It is based on QBO and ONI parameters (only 2 parameters).

    ONI: Its already in increasing trend and fresh high intensity WWB already developing at date-line under influence of MJO directed WP super typhoon.
    QBO: It is 26months cycle. Its already in increasing trend from -ve values (of 2014) and forecasted to increase further in coming months too.

    SWM-2015 forecast:
    As both ONI & QBO are in increasing trend in coming months too, thus forming favorable SWM-QBOONI. So SWM-2015 must not fail in any case.

    SWM- season’s QBOONI rule:
    When QBO is in decreasing trend with respect to ONI index’s increasing trend (means if both moving in opposite directions/inversely proportional) during SWM-season, then SWM will record less than normal and vice-versa.

    Note:
    More worry about NEM-2015 success 😦 If QBO won’t decrease again from September (as ONI won’t decrease at least by the winter-2015) or at least by NEM-season, then QBOONI will become unfavorable for NEM only to make them below normal/deficit. Hope this unfavorable NEM-QBOONI doesn’t arise πŸ™‚

  18. I feel triplicane and ice house must have received at least 1 cm seeing the amount the water on the road.

  19. Why imd always trying to reduce the rain and increase the temp when compare to kea and imd aws???? Ths what people consider chennai is hot and dry..

    • Certainly hot, but I’m not sure about the dry bit. That depends on number of factors in a particular year.

  20. The idea of June 2015 highlights on 1st of July looks good. Great going. And seems DC increasing the space for weather outlook and for a 10 days old associate, it is really good. .

  21. Courtesy: Mike Hauber (weatherzone forum)

    In his words:
    The SOI seems to have been much more positive ever since 2000, and even in 97/98 the SOI values although strong did not reflect an extreme el nino, and were significantly short of 82/83. Perhaps as the Indian Ocean and West Pacific surface waters have warmed in recent decades, and the Southern Ocean, and subsurface waters have not that (and which upwell in the nino regions) the Southern subtropical ridge has been strengthened and has caused the SOI to generally rise. Pressure anomalies for the last 90 days show that the subtropical ridge through the southern hemisphere has remained strong and close to the equator, which opposes the el nino trend, but the NH and equator have had strong low pressure in the east Pacific, with the ridge pushed north away from the equator. The tropical westerlies have largely being driven by the NH and tropics. I’d guess if the SH does suddenly fall in line and the NH keeps going the way it has, that a record event would be almost guaranteed.

  22. Really to proud our tamilnadu parson valley In third place of June rainfall after cherranpunji and mawsynaram

    • Bijli’s place is Chennai’s Parson’s valley…his RG has recorded rains almost every day in June πŸ˜€

      1/6/15 – 1mm
      2/6/15 – 3mm
      6/6/15 – 5mm
      9/6/15 – 11mm
      11/6/15 – 7mm
      14/6/15 – 5mm
      16/6/15 – 19mm
      18/6/15 – 3mm
      19/6/15 – 2mm
      20/6/15 – 10mm
      21/6/15 – 0.2mm
      23/6/15 – 2mm
      27/6/15 – 1.5mm
      30/6/15 – 4mm
      Total= 73.7mm
      No.of.Rainy days (10) a rainy day =2.5mm or more

      • Jupi, please understand my wordings πŸ™‚

        My wordings:
        if QBO doesn’t decrease from September/October onwards then only that unfavorable situation will arise. We will know it by September/October so till then no worries πŸ™‚

      • By October NEM would have set in already so we’ll already have a clear picture πŸ™‚

      • NEM onset date is October 20th. QBO-Septmber can be known by October 1st week. so no problems πŸ™‚

  23. Rami and Others,

    Why i am saying that July might get below normal rainfall across.

    Kelvin wave is on its way to Phase 2 by 06th or 07th, this can increase SST over West Indian Ocean, but Rossby wave is also becoming active from 04th. This might cool down the SST, hence even though MJO follows Kelvin by mid of July, it wont be strong enough to increase precipitation over the country.

    Hence, since Rossby expected around 04th in IO, if Kelvin comes late by 08th or later will help SST to increase over West IO and this will induce Positive IOD, which will strengthen SWM all over the country. However SE coast of India will get lesser rainfall including Chennai, but NEM can become strong this time, if Positive IOD coupled with ELNINO stronger till October.

    Till the IOD remains Neutral, Chennai has better chance for increased precipitation.

    • for this reason MJO forecast is not encouraging. But amplitude around 1 will be good enough for SWM-dynamics to work in normal mode.

  24. Obnoxious conditions aggravating in many parts of AP and rayalaseema. People started contemplating drought like situations

      • Rain is totally confined to North Telangana and North AP..
        Agency areas of Adilabad Khammam Visakha received more than 1000 mm till now

  25. Rami,

    This is how it feeds the system in WP, see the blue lines over WP, which indicates the convective area over the regions, this is due to strong MJO.

    However i doubt this system crossing any coast.

    ACC over North West Pacific, High Wind Shear at upper level, hence this will weaken before reaching any coast, also the movement will be very slow as more congestion from all directions over North.

    http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-193.94,6.79,428

    http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/07/02/0300Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-193.94,6.79,428

  26. OMG…Global economy will stumble? Greece defaulted and may exit Euro-zone 😦

    Eurozone finance ministers have rejected a Greek government call to extend its bailout, just hours before it expires and a €1.6bn (Β£1.1bn) payment to the IMF falls due.

    If it fails to repay the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Greece could risk leaving the euro.

    My view:
    Could this spiral the temporary (or permanent?) global economic crisis?

    BBC: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33325886

  27. MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDED IN CHENNAI FOR JULY LAST 5 YEARS

    2014- july 4 – 39.2C

    2013-july 2 – 38.3C

    2012- july6 -38.8C

    2011- july2- 38C

    2010- july16- 36.8C
    as per long forecast temperature
    with daily highs around 35Β°C throughout the year in the month of july, exceeding 39Β°C or dropping below 36Β°C only one year in ten years for maximum temperature

  28. Wimbledon, long associated with depressing rain delays, will introduce emergency playing rules for hot weather for the first time on Wednesday when temperatures are expected to reach the mid-30s.Organisers say a heat rule, which allows for a 10-minute break between the second and third sets of women`s matches, can be used when temperatures rise above 30.1 degrees Celsius (86.2 degrees Fahrenheit).
    However, the rule which has been adopted by Wimbledon after lobbying from the WTA, does not apply to men even though they have to slug it out over the best of five sets.
    Tuesday`s heat is expected to hover around the 30C mark, but is expected to surge to around 35C on Wednesday.
    The highest-ever temperature recorded at Wimbledon was 34C in 1976.
    http://zeenews.india.com/sports/tennis/wimbledon/wimbledon-set-for-heat-breaks-but-only-for-women_1622626.html

  29. Chennai June Rainfall Analysis – Tamil Nadu Weatherman / Keaweather Special
    ================================
    Chennai June rainfall of 20.3 mm in 2015 was the lowest in last 20 years. However, it is not lowest ever. Here is the stats analyzed over last 200 years, Chennai has got less than 20.3 mm (2015 June Rainfall) in 43 years and less than 50 mm rainfall in 100 years. Afterall, Chennai has got over 100 mm rainfall in June in less than 10% of last 200 years.

    June’s Average for Chennai is 72.3 mm (last 30 years) is inflated due to the fact of heavy rainfall in 1991 (around 300 mm) and 1996 (around 700mm) due to Cyclone in BoB. If you exclude these two abnormal years, the Chennai’s average of 72.3 mm in June will be around 40-45 mm.

    Hopefully our blog guys understand this. June was never our month.

  30. June rainfall comparison for Chennai District during Summer ELNINO.

    1972 – 73.29 MM
    1982 – 74.45 MM
    1997 – 72.54 MM
    2002 – 16.88 MM
    2009 – 11.30 MM
    Above is chennai district average.

    2015 – 20.30 MM for nunga

  31. OMG. I am keatured for thrid time in last 7 years. Its a special feeling to be keatured rather coming in news.

  32. Flash News,

    East to West shear zone at 500 HPA forming over south coastal ap from 04th.

    This is the reflection of Westward Rossby Wave arrival on that day. See the second link in which the Westward Rossby bringing Negative OLR.

    700 HPA winds coming down the latitude, the wave is pulling the winds below 15N latitude.

    Expect active TS days to start over SAP and NTN from 04th.

    http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/All_times.php?Level=500&CDate=2015-07-01&Id=1&CType=Wind-Forecast&Model=NGFS-Outputs

    http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showhoriz.php

  33. More weather stations required across Chennai.. I may setup soon at Adam more ppl should come forward already many bloggers ere have RGs need to be digitalized though

  34. Flash News 2,

    A Land Depression likely over WB from 07th onwards.

    A LOW is likely to form on 05th and likely to intensify into a D and then DD from 07th and likely to move in WSW direction towards central india. The mid level steering winds will take the movement of the storm.

    When it crossed the longitude of Chennai on 09th, Chennai will get good rainfall.

    Overall from 04th to 10th Chennai has very good chance of more rainy days.

    http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/All_times.php?Level=500&CDate=2015-07-01&Id=1&CType=Wind-Forecast&Model=NGFS-Outputs

  35. atchu(saidapet) β€’ 2 hours ago

    As per current trend, today max wont go beyond 37.5…
    Already crossed that

  36. 37.6Β°C
    Trend(Last 5 Minute) : -2.88Β°C/hr
    Max.(Since 8:30AM) : 37.9Β°C
    Min.(Since 8:30AM) : 31.4Β°C

  37. Nungabakkam IMD’s measurement of rains seems faulty and this compounds the problem of low rains in the recent past especially in 2015. in the last 10 spells nunga has not reported a double digit mm rainfall. This is very strange when RG all round other parts of Chennai have received more rainfall.

  38. 35.5Β°C
    Trend(Last 5 Minute) : -22.08Β°C/hr
    Max.(Since 8:30AM) : 38.4Β°C
    Min.(Since 8:30AM) : 31.4Β°C

  39. Pradeep, other day i had posted the last 15 year June figures of rainfall..It was very clear that on most yeras it was a hit and miss affair..Only four years saw we breach 100 mm mark in the last 15 years,,i am re posting the “could be reason for our bloggers expectations of super June or frequent TS here again..

    Another reason for the expectations is that the blog has been active since 2012 with more members than it was in say 2010 or 2011..Most of the bloggers since then have seen above average SWM rains and feel that we have not got our due..May be we would have missed something to see what we normally get to see in the month of June..The average is about 56 mm in this month…

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