Monsoon Continues to Pause

keaweather 2015, KEA Blog, SWM-2015

The Monsoon trough looks inactive with no active disturbances in the basin, leading to a Lull in the rains across most parts of India. The Low Pressure Area over eastern UP continues to seed meaningful rains over Gangetic Plains of UP and Bihar. Isolated heavy rainfall likely over foothills of Himalayas, parts of West Bengal, Sikkim and North-Eastern parts of India in the next 24hrs. Expect a considerable increase in temperature along the north coastal parts of Tamil Nadu.
02. Meteosat5
Chennaites need to battle another hot and humid day with max temp touching 38-39c. Evening may turn comfortable with the setting of sea breeze. Isolated thunderstorms can be expected by late evening across the city & suburbs

Coimbatore Continues to be amiable with a max temp of 32-33c. Possibility of thunderstorms during the evening hours.

Madurai will continue to swelter under the Sun with Mercury testing 37-38c. Isolated Thunderstorms may occur by late evening.

1,103 thoughts on “Monsoon Continues to Pause”

  3. The west-pacific lion awakening with too much anger to shake the global weather.

    Invest area developed at west-pacific (yellow circle) and forecasted to develop to super-typhoon, which will target East-china coast via Taiwan.

    It looks the journey for this west-pacific typhoon will be very smooth and make a roller-coaster over 2 more pulses (indicated in red circles) by swallowing them to grow into a “monstrous super-typhoon”.

    MJO will be peaking in intensity only to aid the super-typhoon only to make its journey smooth all the way till land fall at east-china.

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  4. Today’s Forecast

    1) Chennai Temp will be around 38

    2) Good chance of wide spread rain throughout South Chennai and South of Chennai city

    3) Further wide spread rains expected around Salem and Delta Dist.

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  6. Today Tiruvannamalai and Pudukottai dist get some good Rains.

    Moderate Rain Chances for Isolated Places in Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram,Salem,Trichy dist.

    Chennai and its suburbs could see light to Moderate Rains at Isolated places.

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  9. Ecmwf precipitation charts for today evening. It is predicting 0mm for chennai and North interior Tamil nadu. It is continuesly failing now a days! Lets see how it goes today!

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    • its not predicted interior rains yesterday? then ECMWF is not a good model for daily wise (monthly/seasonal might be good)

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  11. Seeing this 925 hPa charts of 12 UTC yesterday , one can sense some causative factors behind those T’storms…

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  13. even tday sea breeze will b stronger and front will be wide like wat v seen in last couple of days.

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  15. Hi rajkmr sir, wish u a many more happy returns of the day.. i hope u remember me..i was staying b4 in kodambakkam, zak colony ( tea stall frnd)..Just got msg frm twit..May god bless u with all happiness.

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  16. Selvan , the Monsoon trough axis , moved up at the western end yesterday night to Sri Ganganagar from Bikaner were it was spotted in the mid day…

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      • Yes that shift was only at western end , clearly moved up latitude with temporary heat lows , and the remaining part of the axis stuck around the center of low pressure area …

        The highest maximum temperature of 43.8°C has been recorded at Ganganagar (Rajasthan).
        Definitely diurnal heat response impact …

  17. June 9th storm and last night have been the most disappointing end to TS tracking in my 4 year stint in this blog.. It has happened everytime this season.. Something seriously wrong withing the 30 km radius.. When the storm was at its violent best just 50 kms away, how can it just get ripped apart? Something seriously wrong this season.. Once or twice is fine.. I think success rate is 100% for storm dissipation this season.. Wish I could analyse more on this.. Unfortunately, my regular work is holding me.. My request to selva, gts, PJ , rao sir, partha sir and other senior experts of this blog to kindly educate us as to what on earth is wrong within this 30 km radius?! If pollution and dust particles are the causes, how did we end up with excess swm last few years? It can’t be that selva..

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    • Seshu , what Sel said cannot be ruled out , it has a fair chance. Local conditions have an equal role in shaping mesoscale activities.He had said about the volumetric soil moisture content too..that can be varying between urban and rural areas. Moreover , a stronger and slow moving sea breeze can suck up that favorable content on soil as it passes by over areas ..leaving back very little of it . And moreover places close to coast can have adverse balance of winds…can cause unfavorable conditions

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      • I remember Selva posting a few days back that there is abnormal SST over the coastal areas of NTN/ SAP.. he said that when the SST goes beyond a certain limit, it fails to hold convection.. Could that also be a reason for the storms weakening along the coastal areas? My understanding could be wrong.. Local conditions can never go adverse cent percent :p It has happened to every storm this season.. As Rao pointed out, it could be the macro level factors, having an impact on these local conditions..

    • no need to worry. its -ve/neutral IOD coupled with Elnino drastically reducing the “moisture content” at different levels. so for Chennai core city to receive good rains, we need comprehensive (even during break-monsoon/regular monsoon season) moisture input. This moisture input is lacking at the moment.

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      • major is ENSO &IOD. micro-level has little influence. if micro-level has major influence then we need to forget SWM rains for Chennai in future too.

      • Just a thought process.. I have replied to GTS below.. 🙂 thanks a lot rao sir for the explanation! 🙂

  19. Hi Selvan,

    I tried calling you and gokul last evening, but could not reach you. I saw GTS call today morning, will call you GTS in a while.
    Sel, I just wanted to tell you on that Westward Wave. I will call you after 10, tell me if you are free.

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  20. flash…if at all any local factors effecting Chennai’s rain chances then Chennai should not receive any rains in coming SWM-seasons (not bringing NEM at the moment). Can’t it?

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  23. The intensity of slow pulses of rainfall in the country has decreased over the past sixty years and is replaced by an increase in short, high intensity rainfall events known as extreme events, a study by the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) has revealed.
    The study separated the slow pulses in the monsoon which last 20-60 days from the faster pulses. “On investigating the data from 1961 to 2013, it was found that the intensity of these slow pulses has decreased over the past sixty years. This decrease has been compensated by an increase in short, high intensity rainfall events, known as extreme events,” Nirupam Karmarkar, lead author of the study and a PhD candidate at the IISc, said. The research also detected an increase in extreme events over coastal regions in May and June and over central India in July and August.
    http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/monsoon-happening-in-short-intense-bursts-study/article7367633.ece

    Reply

  24. Flash…2 symmetrical tropical systems (red circles) forming around just west of dateline either of the hemisphere. WP-typhoon forecasted to become super-category.

    As both of these systems get intensified and move W/NW direction, then westerly wind burst (WWB, direction in yellow arrow) will start to move towards east-pacific ocean to reinforce the already existing EKW to enhance Elnino conditions.

    Note:
    MJO is perfectly poised to give much needed thrust to the above Elnino-enhancing mechanism.

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  27. does 500 hpa level moisture play a role in these evening thunderstorms? basically these r moving according to 700 hpa winds..then how 500 hpa winds can impact?

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    • Naresh it is more often a resultant of winds at various layers . it simply moves with the pressure weighted dominant layer at times. Sometimes , they behave and move with their complete internal dynamics …puzzles us a lot

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    • moisture from surface to 700hpa is the thing v need to see and it will b more than enough for a proper ts..anything above tat layer can be bonus.. its better to track the temp of those low to mid layers for a proper towering of clouds as buoyancy of ts depend on the temp of the the surroundings .

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      • partha,i have seen bloggers posting instablity at 700,instablity at 500hpa triggering ts.. whatever it is, first the surface and pbl shld b ready to host n develop the storm..any storm has to tower from 1km to 14km..so each layer has to contribute. normally the convergence extends from surface to 2 or 3km in altitude.so each layer has its role to contribute

      • what i am saying is, when there is upper or mid level instability, then an uac forms, during that time we dont require the lower lever support, what do you say about this.

        this is happening most of the time this season, see lots of UAC’s yesterday in Bay and moving across the land of AP and now in Arabian Sea.

      • when ther is an instablity at 700hpa is significant or even uac is established properly,then surface conditions will move intact with tat layer to support. if lower level doesnt hav proper support,ther wont b ts

      • most cases the surface layers comes intact with the 700hpa or surface to host ts when instablity at low -mid level is significant

  28. seshu, sorry for late reply..got held with small work ….and yes v r not concluding wit that.they r the possible things to influence.. pple here were saying how mumbai,banglore getting rains with same pollution. temp,humidity&other local conditions of those cities r never going to be same wen compared with chennai so obviously the result will b different… timing of the rains also differs,we get most of the rain during evening/late evening unlike monsoon full day rain n mumbai..

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  29. OMG…why this much kolavari regarding moisture vs hpa levels vs TS direction. These boundaries in hpa levels given by human beings. But all the layers will be continuous from surface to 200 hpa (or even beyond 200 hpa, that is at stratosphere’s 50/30/10…0 hpa levels)

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  31. “TS dissipating mystery” . sun radiation,soil moisture values of diffferent places of tiruvallur dist yesterday
    ..ther is no clear cut conclusion

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  32. and aerosal optical depth seen in nasa aqua modis ..even most cities had high content.so again no clear signs

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  33. Sel,

    If you say soil moisture is important, then city cannot get even that 20 MM which they got so far. There is no soil left and all got concrete.

    All the households should have some soil left out in their back side of their house, so that the moisture increases, but nowadays all houses in city is completely covered by concrete.

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    • Partha, not only direct soil moisture , moisture thru transpiration from leaves too account for that process in an indirect way of moisture from soil . Huge green covers of IIT campus , marsh areas of Pallikaranai, Trees that stand on most road sides can collectively help transfer soil moisture thru leaf pores ….

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  36. Sel… thanks a lot for the explanation.. You seem to be in full form.. Looks like u r not going to proceed without finding out the exact reason for yesterday’s dissipation.. Good analysis on soil moisture below 🙂

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  40. SOI is in decreasing trend and IOD is in decreasing trend. No waves and Western disturbances. Then how moisture will come towards Indian mainland?

    I need to pump the moisture (by boiling the water on electricity/Gas stove) for healthy TS 🙂

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  41. GTS and Selvan,

    I get to remember that i saw in TV that a 60 year old lady was researching on preventing the water resources in our state. They found out a big Lake near Tirunelveli and Tuticorin district border, which was build by a King. That lake was serving around 18 villages, that has been buried now and there were lots of thorn plants, by seeing in TV that lady said that, due to these plants that place will have more heat, instead they can plant Panai Maram or some other trees which will create some cool atmosphere which can bring lighter rainfall.

    Also she said that the same thing happening in Chennai, the trees are cut but government does not take action on those. She has recovered some Ponds like one in Tiruvanmiyur and handed over to local residents to maintain it.

    Simple thing is that, lets all plant atleast one in every home, at least it gives shade and gives fresh air. If you find any thorn plants around, please destroy it, it will create heat around you.

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      • even thought IOD becomes Positive it may be temporary, since Equatorial Rossby always available and being active in IO, which will cool off the SST, since it is reflective wave of Kelvin and give opposite reaction.

        once the rossby gets active from 04th, the same day Kelvin arrives, then following MJO might not be stronger enough, since rossby cooling off the sst.

  48. Actually our Chennai corpn announced planting of nearly 20 lakh Palm trees,and some other trees in around water bodies of Chennai, along river banks in 2013 , what was the progress, i don’t know

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  50. Complete clear sky here with temperature expected to notch upto 39 c only early strong sea breeze can save us from this heat

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  56. புவிஈர்ப்பு விசை காரணமாக பூமியில் இன்று ஒரு வினாடி அதிகம்: நாசா அறிவிப்பு

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    • Especially for coastal places which not even going to get any rain but interior whatever may be the temperature there evening ts will rescue them but for coastal areas nothing is there except sea breeze

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      • vignesh…in coming months chennai too ll see ts…..swm is crucial for chennai …but swm not important for south cities like trichy, madurai, tirunelveli….

      • See atchu as chennai is capital of tn even if rain fails some how we get water resource from ap but think about south districts especially south interior districts which is fully depend on swm

  59. While record-smashing heat is searing the Northwest United States and southwest Canada, another heat wave is about to become more widespread in Europe, and may last in some areas into next week.
    Madrid set a new June record high Sunday, reaching 39.1 degrees Celsius — 102.3 degrees Fahrenheit — edging out their previous June record of 38.8ºC on June 26, 2012.Tuesday and Wednesday, the heat will ramp up considerably in France, the U.K., Belgium, the Netherlands and western Germany.
    http://www.wunderground.com/news/europe-heat-wave-record-highs-june-july-2015

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  61. I have seen lot of karuvela mul/ veli kathan in Tuticorin, thiruchendur , etc, also i have seen lot of Palm trees in these areas, is palm tree doing a balancing act from the adverse effect of Karuvela mul in these areas

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  62. Jupiter and Venus from 6-29-15. You can even see the four Galilean moons of Jupiter here. The two planets will be at their closest on Tuesday evening. Look to the west just after sunset!

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    • yes now the weather isl ike what we experience in september last week and prior to the weeks before nem onset

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  67. Good News – I have been mentioning that KEA experts should participate in TV Channels – to speak about – weather – We can discuss what is meant by Veppa Salanam ,why Chennai is not getting rains, what brings rain, What SWM and NEM, etc . I am trying through a friend who promised to speak to someone in a popular Tamil Channel and come back – Have suggested 3-5 experts from this Blog. Keeping my fingers crossed . Let us see. My friend is a regular contributor to that channel on economics – mutual fund – gold etc.

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  70. The forecast i gave yesterday. West and Central India is matching with IMD.

    parthasri35, Rajakilpakkam • a day ago

    Rainfall During July 2015

    Keeping in mind that ELNINO peaking this month, hence mostly UAC’s likely than LOW’s. There might be lots of Upper to Mid Air Disturbances, this will benefit SE Coast of India and bring lesser rainfall over the main regions of SWM impacting.

    NW and Extreme North India likely to get below normal rainfall in July.
    East India likely to get Near Normal Rainfall.
    NE India Normal rainfall expected.
    Central India likely to get Normal Rainfall.
    South India Excess Rainfall.
    West Coast to get Below Normal to Normal Rainfall.

    Overall this July likely to be Below Normal all over India.

    1. July first week NE, South and West Coast will get good rainfall.
    2. The peaking of the season likely in the Mid of July from 13th to 20th.
    From July 14th South India will get good numbers and West Coast will get the same pattern from 17th or 18th July, will continue till 21st.

    TN will get good rainfall during first week and mid of July.
    Tamilnadu overall likely to get above normal rainfall during this month.

    Note – The above forecast is based on IOD stays neutral, if it becomes Positive all the above forecast might change vice versa.

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  71. OMG…
    models expecting the temperatures to reach 40 degrees again in most places of Rayalaseema and coastal AP…and some parts of Telangana and North Interior karnataka

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  77. Heat wave warning for Nellore and chittor..
    Temperatures expected to reach 41 to 42 drgrees in next week

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  80. As per imd seasonal forecast,
    normal to above normal rains for july,august,september for entire ap,ts and north tamilnadu
    below normal to near normal for west coast, south tamilnadu

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  81. 36.6°C
    Trend(Last 5 Minute) : -5.52°C/hr
    Max.(Since 8:30AM) : 37.1°C
    Min.(Since 8:30AM) : 32.1°C

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  82. y’day rain in in Tvl dt, today rains predicted for Kanchi dt, skipping Chennai again, what a pity

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  83. What a puty iod if stays eutral or just above neutral will enhance rainfall over tn in july n for NEM this has to be positive..will turning into positive by end of july or august will it help nen

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  84. All time maximum for July is 41.1 recorded on July 4th, 1915.
    I expect we will come close to challenging it or even beat that 100 year record

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  85. heat wave effect in chennai.. we desperately need some rains this evg to cool down things.. floors are just keeping warm.. where is our sea breeze today??

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  86. I don’t think Chennai will beat all time record in terms of temp. We have a good chance of frequent TS starting from 03rd or 04th July and then by mid of July and then by last week. These TS activity will break 24hr rule as Rami used to say.

    Hence no need to worry until IOD neutral. We can expect some UAC’s also this month.

    As i said in June 03rd, we are seeing more UAC’s than LOW’s.

    Keep Observing.

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      • No use in temp check atchu..if it rains only..our temp will won’t go higher & our water level will increase.. we enjoyed those days..but now we r suff frm high temp & no ground water..

      • I have already written off this years SWM for Chennai. We need to survive 3 more months of record breaking low rainfall. Hope things improve during NEM.

      • SWM deficit in a month can be brought down by a single TS..Now we r dry..if a TS forms at this time..it will pound us..we will get a minimum of 8cm.. NEM story is a diff one..

  90. 37.7°C
    Trend(Last 5 Minute) : 2.16°C/hr
    Max.(Since 8:30AM) : 37.7°C
    Min.(Since 8:30AM) : 32.1°C

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  91. Madden–Julian Oscillation strengthens over western Pacific region
    – Strong Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) to continue over western Pacific region
    – Increased convection and rainfall over western Pacific region and near Date Line
    – Rare tropical cyclone formation possible in southwest Pacific Ocean

    El Niño persists in tropical Pacific
    – Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) returns to negative values
    – Oceanic and cloud indices are consistent with El Niño
    – Climate models indicate El Niño for the remainder of the year

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  92. No monsoon activity in west up to Africa coast…. Difficult days are ahead as predicted by imd

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  94. Waiting for upcoming Lanina year…
    lost hope in the present swm…now not even bothering about swm rains in hyderabad…

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  95. massive increase in heat energy along bob compared to last three years..attached three years charts below

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  96. Last December Hyderabad minimum temperature in uppal stands at 6.4 degrees…Hope this record will be broken this year.

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  98. Winter is just 5 months away to show its power…….Pleasant days ahead for Hyderabad and kurnool

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  99. Kurnool missed the record for june…..
    I thought it could touch 50 percent deficit, but stood finally at 47 percent deficit

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