Break Monsoon Continues

The axis of the monsoon remains inclined to the Himalayan foothills resulting in the continuation of the break monsoon. This will lead to too hot and humid days over the peninsula. The west coast, excluding Kerala will have to contend with uncomfortable and humid days with sporadic showers over isolated areas. The low pressure which was over Bihar and adjoining Jharkhand will move across Uttar Pradesh setting up heavy rains over the Himalayan foothills and some parts of Uttar Pradesh. An upper air circulation may emerge out of the monsoon trough over North-west and adjoining North Bay of Bengal. There will be a marked increase in rainfall over Orissa, West Bengal, parts of Andhra Pradesh and the north-eastern states too. Some parts of Tamil Nadu will be quenched by localized thundershowers.
02. Meteosat5
Chennai – Another extremely hot and sultry day likely with a max temp of 39 C. Some respite in the form of thundershowers likely by late evening/night.

Coimbatore – A warm day by Coimbatore standards. Temperatures may touch 33 C. Light drizzles/showers possible.

Madurai – Hot day in store with max temp settling at 38-39 C. Isolated thundershowers expected by evening around the city.

1,413 thoughts on “Break Monsoon Continues

  1. June 2005 we got 30mm and our NEM was above normal . Now in 2015 it is somewhere close to 20mm . Can that 2005 NEM repeat?

    • Hopefully yes.

      The last 2 times June rains failed , in 2012 & 2013, we had horrible NEM. Will the trend repeat again? I hope not.

      • Oops so which one to look for 2012,13 or 2005? Most of us want 2005
        Now lets see how July goes will it go with 12 ,13 or 2005?

  2. Today’s Forecast

    1) Chennai Temp will be around 38

    2) Good chance of wide spread rain throughout North of Chennai and South of Chennai city

    3) As per the current status, today also South Chennai receive more rains compared yesterday….

  3. Flash..alert..As expected earlier the convection decreased drastically along west coast (area 1 in orange circle) with simultaneous increase along extreme southern tip of peninsula near S-Kerala, STN, Srilanka (area 2 in yellow circle).

    This type of cloud pattern coupled with LPA along foothills of Himalayas is a clear cut indication of “break monsoon in SWM”

    Consequences of break-monsoon:
    1. Rainfall will be wide-spread along foothills of Himalayas, E-india and S-Kerala, STN & Srilanka. Slowly the rainfall activity will increase over NE-India.
    2. During this period Chennai too witness heavy wide-spread rains along with other regions of TN.
    3. Need to see how many days it will take to reactivate SWM-current under intensifying Elnino conditions.

    • srilanka, south-Kerala, STN will receive wide-spread heavy rains during this break-monsoon period at the moment, Chennai too witness wide-spread rains during this period apart from other parts of TN.

  4. சென்னையில் பல இடங்களில் இன்று இடியுடன் கனமழை பெய்ய வாய்ப்பு

    Good Chance of Rain in Many Places of Chennai Today

  5. Friends, planning a trip to agumbe and jog falls this July. It will be a three day trip. Novak (thala) and selvan has already given their consent to join me. Budjet will be 5k per head. Whoever is interested can mail me @ triptoagumbe@gmail.com

  6. Typical break monsoon conditions. Crystal blue sky with scattered low level clouds here and there in Bangalore. Today is Day 4 of Break Monsoon!

  7. Guess it’s high time to restart the contests. I didnt know the world follows us. If we stop, others stop too.

  8. Storms for the last couple of days never converged properly.. Something was lacking wrt the intensity and movement. All pop ups formed randomly and failed to get organised.. Experts.. Can u tell us the reason behind it? Was it the lack of moisture at any levels? Convergence was quite high as well in north TN yesterday but failed to materialise.

    • Yes there is lack of moisture at 500hpa. Only 700hpa had good Moisture. Today we might see some good TS formation

    • Better known persons may answer your right question later. Sesh. If we go by the averages for June, (55 mm) ,there is nothing much we can do about it. May be the conditions just doesn’t suit that good to get regular widespread TS in June.

      • Yes. Hopefully august and September pays off.. Storms literllay form daily in those months.. One more thing in those two months is that heat radiation is too high when compared to June.. U can feel the pinchig heat on the skin in those two months.. In June, u don’t get the real bite of the heat even though its hot… That radiation might also play a role in the intensity of TS those months.. Just a personal thought and nothing technical

      • Yes, you could be right. Else the figures for June on a long time average could be different.

  9. My AWS at Thaiyur (Kelambakkam) have registered 18.8mm in 3 spells yesterday which makes the June and SWM tally to 46.4mm

    1st Spell : 8.0 mm
    2nd Spell : 5.0 mm
    3rd Spell : 5.8 mm

  10. Cirro cumulus Around.


    Cirrocumulus is one of the three main genus-types of high-altitude tropospheric clouds, which doesn’t include cirrus and cirrostratus. They usually occur at an altitude of 5 kilometres to 12 kilometres. Small, high, patched clouds, in rows
    Indicates precipitation: Occasionally virga (evaporates before reaching the ground). May form ahead of a frontal system, especially together with other cirriform clouds meaning rain in around 10 hours

  11. Kanyakumari gets the heaviest spell of monsoon, Tamil Nadu Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 28.06.2015
    ================================================
    The off -shore trough at mean sea level from south Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast persists and is feeble.

    in mm (min 15mm)

    Tiruparappu – 172
    Kulasekharam – 159
    Devala – 130
    Perunchani – 121
    Puthen Dam – 119
    Lower Kodayar – 111
    Bhoothapandy – 108
    Chittar I – 104
    Suralode – 103
    Kannimar – 88
    Chittar II – 84
    Upper Kodayar – 80
    Anaikadangu – 77
    Mambazhathuraiyaru – 72
    Pechiparai – 71
    Mullankivilai – 68
    Adyamadai – 57
    Kiliyoor – 54
    Colachel – 53
    Eraniel – 49
    Papanasam – 43
    Neyoor – 41
    Kuzhithurai – 40
    Thuckalay – 40
    Siruvani – 36
    Nagercoil – 33
    Mylaudy – 32
    Mukurthy – 30
    Karuthancode – 30
    Chinnakallar – 30
    Valparai PTO – 30
    Kottar – 28
    Parangipettai – 25
    Sholayar Dam – 24
    Adivaram – 24
    Kadamparai – 24
    Gundar – 21
    Pykara – 19
    Adavinayanar – 18
    Taramani – 17
    Upper Bhavani – 17
    Kanyakumari – 15
    Natham – 15
    Periyar – 15
    Poigai – 15
    Chennai AP – 15
    Shencottah – 15

    Kea Weather – http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1354

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

      • there is not much difference between the distance from Alandur to Meenambakkam, there fore it won’t help much even if it extend to Meenambakkam, for any benefit to be felt by the People of suburbs of South of Chennai, it should extend atleast till Tambaram

      • Even now it will be useful for those willing to come from Alandur to catch State transport buses..Will also be useful for those looking for urgent reach to Airport or towards Kathipara from CMBT particularly when there is a traffic pile up on 100 ft road..Its important that people make use of the public transport,,My vote is always for extensive use of public transport to minimise traffic bottle necks..

      • You can be rest assured of maintenance . Its well maintained in other cities by agencies working round the clock ..Why not here…

      • Kea..You will be spell bound by the way Metro people maintain the stations that ive seen in Delhi, Bangalore (where i frequently travel)..I dont see any lack of effort on their part to maintain it here..

        Im sure you would not have experienced Metro travel in the cities ive mentioned..

      • one main reason for maintenance, the rates are much high, compared to ordinary suburban train travel

      • for a 25 km journey in ordinary suburban train it’s just 10 rs, even in first class it’s not much, but in Metro i think the rate for the same 25 kms it will be 40Rs

      • No Shriram..For instance a distance of 25.8 kms from New Delhi Metro station till Sikandarpur (Gurgaon) is just Rs.23…Its not expensive as people may think,,Rates are affordable only…Last few years ive travelled regularly in this Yellow Line route..

      • the rates for Chennai metro announced just now, min- 10, max- 40 rs. Alandur- vadapalani – 30rs, alandur – koyambedu – 40rs

      • Blore metro is maintained well..wish they do here too..i have heard a lot of negative comments/wishes from some ppl living there..”Let us see how they maintain it in your city after it opens..inga irukra maadhiri anga irukaadhu..challenge?” ..thatz y worried 😦

      • It will be very much useful for people from SS group to reach Koyambedu..but the feeder servcies must be introduced for effective use of this system..for eg. it will take only minutes from Alandur to Koyambedu in Metro..but there is no public transport from Adam to Alandur..autos in suburbs never use meters and charge around 120 for Asarkana (200 during early mornings/rains/nights)..Govt. must introduce mini buses and increase frequency during peak hours.

      • When your Catamaran service is always there, why bother about Autos and other mode of transport,,,Time for you to fit wheels in those and put it to use..When there is a flooding, the wheels can go inside as it happens in Aircraft..

      • Hello Thala..naanga serious’a pesitrukom…all old Cats sold to other countries through eBay..no stocks left.

  12. Nunga unlucky still. We must follow LCP theory for this. When popup forms in outskirts like nagari, tvm or pp, one must go all the way and use “Lemon Chilly Pumpkin” there..

  13. Over 1,000 pilgrims stranded on way to the Himalayan shrines in Uttarakhand have been evacuated as the pilgrimage to Badrinath and the Sikh shrine of Hemkund Sahib in Chamoli district remained disrupted for the fourth consecutive day on Sunday. Pilgrimage to Hemkund Sahib has been suspended after a bridge near Bhyundar village along the trek route was washed away in rains and a substitute for it is under construction.

    Stranded pilgrims were being ferried in vehicles from Badrinath to Benakuli and Lambagad to Joshimath, Chamoli’s Disaster Management Officer Nand Kishor Joshi said. About 1,000 pilgrims have so far been evacuated to Joshimath, he said. Pilgrims were also being airlifted in two choppers from Ghanghariya and ferried to Joshimath, he said. About 350 pilgrims have been brought from Hemkund Sahib in choppers to Joshimath.

    Most of the Sikh pilgrims who were earlier stranded in Ghanghariya have now safely reached their destinations, Hemkund Gurudwara Prabandhak committee chief Seva Singh said.

  14. News of flood havoc in Gujarat’s Amreli district causing immense damage to wildlife and the ecosystem is disturbing (“Lioness strays into temple, attacks two”, June 28). Just early last month, the nation celebrated the 27 per cent increase in the population of Asiatic lions in the Gir area, across Junagadh and Amreli districts. That these numbers are now dwindling owing to nature’s fury more than direct anthropogenic factors is equally worrisome. It is time to reconsider methods like translocation of endangered wildlife species to other favourable habitats; Madhya Pradesh has long offered to support the translocation of lions from Gir. Policymakers must act soon as we cannot afford to have species becoming extinct as a result of sudden disasters.

  15. THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Heavy monsoon rain that lashed the State in the last 24 hours caused extensive damage to standing crops and property. The Met Department has warned of heavy rain in isolated places till Tuesday.
    Standing crops in over 400 hectares were destroyed in the last 24 hours. Idukki district reported the highest agriculture loss in about 375 hectares. Standing crops on 4,269 hectares of land were destroyed since the start of the monsoon.
    http://www.newindianexpress.com/states/kerala/Rain-Havoc-in-Kerala/2015/06/29/article2892156.ece

  16. Road links between West Bengal’s Siliguri and Sikkim’s capital Gangtok remained cut off on Saturday due to landslides at Rambhi in Darjeeling district, officials said, according to an IANS report. Between 50-60 tourists descending to Siliguri from Sikkim were stranded on National Highway 10 on which the landslides occurred on Thursday night at Rambhi under Kalimpong police station following incessant rain. Another 200 tourists were brought down to Siliguri through another circuitous route, said the officials, according to the report.

  17. swm onset like image now seen in sat image.. cloud mass striking kerala and convection sweeping east-northeast bay!!

    • If another uac forms, oomai veyil will come back and we may not get these evening mini storms due to Impure VS also.. 😦

      • more than rain,our heat gaining importance…luckily v got sea breeze yesterday else it would hav been pathetic ..lol wat is that pure and impure vs rains.. btw happened to see a msg from our gaje that ramanan was bothered about excess heat in the city along with pollution causing no rains

      • Yes there was a news item yesterday in papers. He specifically mentioned that the sea breeze is not moving inland due to pollution

  18. Whatever the rain South Chennai and South of Chennai (Guindy to Pondy) has got, will be doubled by today’s rainfall…..

    North Chennai is going to be a DRY (Scanty) in this June . . .

  19. ———— IMD
    34.6°C
    Trend(Last 5 Minute) : 5.52°C/hr
    Max.(Since 8:30AM) : 34.6°C
    Min.(Since 8:30AM) : 32°C

    ———— KEA
    34.7°C
    Real Feel: 39.7°C
    Trend: 1.6°C/hr
    Max:34.9°C(9:54am)
    Min:28.9°C(2:23am)

  20. *** Kea Meet on the Move ***
    Any possibility of having a mini meet on the first day of Metro today evening? 😀

  21. I wish this happens today evening in Chennai on the occassion of Metro inauguration !!!
    1) Electric storm to sweep across city
    2) Followed by light rains with lightning strikes at the background..At this moment, the gorgeous Blue Metro must pass over our beautiful Kathipara (highest point in metro system) with all the city lights turned on.
    3) Our Vatsaa or any other city photography expert must capture this amazing scene
    Wow…that feel of being in Singapore !!! 🙂

  22. there is an interesting study relating swm phase with s.bay and north bay sst during swm.. when s.bay sst anomaly increases more than north central bay with sst gradient difference of 0.75*to 1*c, bay more often moves into inactive phase 80% of the times…and Revival happens only when the conditions turns vice versa with a system in north central parts of bay

  23. SOI likely to become strongly negative as a system likely to form southern pacific region, also MJO in Phase 6 likely to emerge in Phase 7 by 01st or 02nd July with amplitude of 2 as per the Wheeler and Hendon model, which is the only trusted model for MJO forecast.

    Rossby Westward likely to come back around 04th July, Chennai and TN might witness TS from 03rd or 04th onwards and will remain for 4 days time until 08th July. Hope for good start of July for NTN and SAP.

    https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

    http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showhoriz.php

  24. Nunga =21mm
    Parrys =22mm
    Thiruvittyur =18mm
    Thaiyur =48mm
    George town =69.7mm
    Meena =??

    Can nunga record good rains….? To ebd this June in a good note today? Pls

      • JUNE
        1/6/15 – 1mm
        2/6/15 – 3mm
        6/6/15 – 5mm
        9/6/15 – 11mm
        11/6/15 – 7mm
        14/6/15 – 5mm
        16/6/15 – 19mm
        18/6/15 – 3mm
        19/6/15 – 2mm
        20/6/15 – 10mm
        21/6/15 – 0.2mm
        23/6/15 – 2mm
        27/6/15 – 1.5mm

  25. a ridge seen moving twrds extreme northern parts of india from northwest and a subtropical system in s.hemisphere moving along 25-30S were also seen to influence the wind pattern..

  26. Rainfall During July 2015

    Keeping in mind that ELNINO peaking this month, hence mostly UAC’s likely than LOW’s. There might be lots of Upper to Mid Air Disturbances, this will benefit SE Coast of India and bring lesser rainfall over the main regions of SWM impacting.

    NW and Extreme North India likely to get below normal rainfall in July.
    East India likely to get Near Normal Rainfall.
    NE India Normal rainfall expected.
    Central India likely to get Normal Rainfall.
    South India Excess Rainfall.
    West Coast to get Below Normal to Normal Rainfall.

    Overall this July likely to be Below Normal all over India.

    1. July first week NE, South and West Coast will get good rainfall.
    2. The peaking of the season likely in the Mid of July from 13th to 20th.
    From July 14th South India will get good numbers and West Coast will get the same pattern from 17th or 18th July, will continue till 21st.

    TN will get good rainfall during first week and mid of July.
    Tamilnadu overall likely to get above normal rainfall during this month.

    Note – The above forecast is based on IOD stays neutral, if it becomes Positive all the above forecast might change vice versa.

      • In Weather, there will always be few exception cases. For eg: in 1965 strong el nino happened with weak negative IOD.

      • Here’s Rami reply on NAO and IOD relationship.

        “if we go by thermo-haline circulation diagram (circles A & B in the diagram) it must be true. reason is simple due to highest arctic ice melt (means relative warm waters), more relative warm water coming back to Indian ocean, thus preventing sub-tropicsl/tropical IO to cool further.”

  27. VVP2 cannot confirm the sea breeze, please don’t go by that. I was also using that tool initially, but left it later.

    This tool gets updated every 10 minutes, on the 10th minute when it gets updated that time the wind might be from E or SE at surface levels, but after that update, it would have changed, hence we cannot assume that the sea breeze has set in.

    What is sea breeze first of all?

    The land gets heated during day and Sea gets cooled off. The lower atmospheric rule is that a wind flows from Cooler area towards Hotter area, hence the breeze at lower or surface level flows from sea to land by afternoon or evening once the land gets heated than sea. Hence once it is set, it cannot change the direction of flow, this will push the front, which is the border of heat and cold air towards inside the land. If the front has not formed at least we can see the temp reducing and humidity increasing.

    When there is a fluctuation in wind direction, then we can clearly say that the Sea Breeze has not set in. This is what happening right now, it is fluctuating.

    Right now the sea breeze has set in over North of Chennai above 30 KM radius, you can see the weak front moved inside.

    If you want to track sea breeze, check in animation with PPI(V) or wait for front to form and you can see this in PPI(Z).

    http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/img/Animation/dop_ani_main.htm

    • Atlast. spot on on the VVP2. VVP should be used for storm tracking in tandem with ppi(v), wind speeds, seabreeze altitude, wind shear etc. Not for sea breeze setting.

  28. Our T.N Government can make “Growing 1 Tree/home ” compulsory just like what they did in the case of Rainwater Harvesting. that the only way Ramanan Sir ‘s words will come true.

  29. Jon i have requested meteo group to add moisture map too! Dear MeteoEarth user,
     
    See their reply to me by mail
    Many thanks for contacting us. We do our best to respond to every enquiry as quickly as possible. This may take a little while so we ask for your understanding.

  30. initial hurrah will be there, people will throng Metro etc, but with this extraordinary fare, the buzz will fizzle out, the line is not running on the IT corridor

    • ஆலந்தூர் – ஈக்காட்டுதாங்கல்: ரூ10 *ஆலந்தூர் – அசோக்நகர்: ரூ.20 *ஆலந்தூர் – வடபழநி: ரூ.30
      *ஆலந்தூர் – அரும்பாக்கம்: ரூ.40 *ஆலந்தூர் – சிஎம்பிடி புறநகர் பேருந்து நிலையம்: ரூ.40
      *ஆலந்தூர் – கோயம்பேடு: ரூ.40

  31. —————— IMD
    37°C
    Humidity – 36%
    Trend(Last 5 Minute) : -2.28°C/hr
    Max.(Since 8:30AM) : 38.1°C
    Min.(Since 8:30AM) : 32°C

    —————— KEA
    38.1°C
    Humidity – 38%
    Real Feel: 42.7°C
    Trend: 0.8°C/hr
    Max:38.1°C(1:19pm)
    Min:28.9°C(2:23am)

  32. Novakji mentioned about low fare in Delhi metro, even in Kolkatta reports say for 30kms – the fare is just 25

  33. Heat Wave continues, 1200+ dead in Pakistan in just a week, spreads to MIddle East, Spain is sizzling, UK to be hit, Wimbledon may stall…

    – Care about our Climate Change

    • climate changeaa. I think these countries who are maximum polluters of the world should change for the better. Want cool swimming pool, building tennis court top of multi storey building, want everything to get comfort by killing nature. Now nature is showing its bad feature.

  34. Wind direction is sw to ne now so we need popup towards sw of us like yesterday but now we are having popup only to nw of us which is not a favourable place for chennai to get ts

  35. Thanks guys for posting Metro pictures in this blog. Hope the remaining portions of metro are completed in jet speed and enable our people travel in less polluting mode of transportation.

  36. Tambaram to Pondy stretch likely to get severe ts tonight.

    Covalam, Madurantakam, Chengalpet, Pondy areas will be affected with electric storms after 05.00PM.

    I have not seen such heavy moisture at all levels till date this season. Surface to Lower levels has humidity of more than 60%, at 850 HPA more than 70&, at 700 HPA levels more than 90% since 02.00PM today.

  37. Tambaram to Pondy stretch likely to get severe ts tonight. Sea breeze moving fast over interiors from covalam to madurantakam stretch.

    Covalam, Madurantakam, Chengalpet, Pondy areas will be affected with electric storms after 05.00PM.

    I have not seen such heavy moisture at all levels till date this season. Surface to Lower levels has humidity of more than 60%, at 850 HPA more than 70&, at 700 HPA levels more than 90% since 02.00PM today.

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