Its interval time for the Monsoon Movie

keaweather 2015, KEA Blog, SWM-2015

The Monsoon axis has hit Himalayas soon after covering the entire country well ahead of time. As the monsoon axis is seen moving North-North West coupled with the seasonal low over Pakistan weakening to 1004 mb, the rains will be below par over entire country with exception of Eastern, North Eastern states and South Kerala. As the off shore trough along west coast weakens, Western Ghats areas will take a break from heavy rainfall.
The Long wait for Tamil Nadu may be over with Thunder storms expected over North interior Tamil Nadu in the evening shifting to coastal area by night.

02. Meteosat5
Chennai will have a hot and humid day with maximum temperature around 38-39C. City / Suburbs has chance of rains at night.

Coimbatore to remain pleasant with a max of 32C, breezy with isolated drizzles/light rains.

Madurai will test 37-38 C with slight chance of Thunderstorms by late evening in Suburbs.

1,217 thoughts on “Its interval time for the Monsoon Movie”

    • Argentina Plays Paraguay in the Semis while Chile squares up with Peru in the other Semis

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  3. Today’s Forecast

    1) Chennai Temp will be around 37 to 38
    2) Good chance of wide spread rain throughout Chennai city
    3) As per the current status, today also South Chennai receive more rains….

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  6. Good chance of Rains Today the Best Rains of this Year could be for Chennai.

    Ambattur recorded 6mm from Yesterday TS.

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  8. After seeing the trough extension from WB-LPA till STN by IMD-MSLP charts then how firmly our friends are arguing about pure VS-TS? Even UAC formed at 500 HPa level as per latest GFS -earthnullschool school link over SAP. So rainfall if happens today nought be of hybrid VS-TS. As per my opinion pure VS-TS might be so intense but can not travel long distances (even if it has super cyclone inside). Pure VS-TS to travel long distance it must have external synoptic driving force. IMD-MSLP: http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/00hgfs_mslp.htm

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  12. Will we get any respite from the heat today.

    Last 6 days temp has hovered between 38.4 and 39.2

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  14. I think most of you misunderstood my last night comment on finding reason on last night rain. I said about westward olr, which is nothing but a wave, move westward. Olr is to identify the wave movement and its position. I never said olr bringing the rain. Olr is reflectivity of a wave.

    This westward wave is due to interaction of io and west pacific convectivity developed due to sst warming up from march to may during northern hemisphere summer. This wave extends from wp to io through equator and extends up to mid latitude. This brings rain last night over se coast.

    I have attached that wave pic last night.

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    • hi partha..gud morning.. if tat is the case, why it didnt rained during morning hours and why it shld match with evening ts time period? why tat wave shld impact us only on 27th evening ? these ts were mainly due to synoptic scale coupled with mesocale activity .

      Reply

    • Partner partha OLR and Wave common. Just tell me if it rains in north TN due to a freak TS and it is widespread what will the OLR show. It will show less radiation loss.

      OLR is unit for measuring radiation like Okta for measuring cloud density. What has OLR has to do with mid-latittude.

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    • OMG…partner patha, I understood only 1st paragraph. I didn’t understand 2nd paragraph. Especially about wave (what’s is this wave other than MJO, Rossby, Kelvin, MRG, QBO? 😦

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  15. On This Day A Year Ago We Got A Intense Hybrid VS-TS
    It Was Pitch Dark At 4:30 PM
    It Started Pouring It Poured Very Heavily

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  17. I can see many quoting that temp will comedown. There is no cloud mass near Chennai in BoB. this is not may for early sea breeze and westerlies are strong. There is going to be 99% chance of temp to cross 38 C with ease.

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  18. I want north chennai and nunga to get more rains today . As yesterday it missed. Some places in South chennai recorded 50mm +. They enjoyed yesterday

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  23. Ecmwf precipitation charts for today evening.

    ECMWF is becoming buss now a days. It never predicts rains for chennai. But it rained heavily yesterday. Today also 0mm for chennai as per ECMWF

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  26. I cant forgot yesterday’s lucky day!
    one of the heavy rain lashed chennai for 2 times..i enjoyed well..wud be close to 3cm…i enjoyed a lot…
    Hoping the same today!it should be widespread

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  30. Flash…clarifying alert….

    If we see earthnullschool maps, Sahara desert has so many UACs.

    UAC alone can not give rains, but it may enhances the wind-confluence. Under proper moisture input, this wind confluence magnifies the rainfall to many folds.

    Now moisture incursion from west-coast happening. especially break-monsoon enhancing this moisture incursion more. Moreover there is trough extension from WB-LPA (this powerful than UAC) till STN.

    SAHARA desert UACs:
    http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=10.73,13.47,906

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  31. can you able to see SAHARA desert UACs in earthnullschooll link? There will be so many UACs exist across the globe everyday.

    But only few will nourish us with good rainfall under proper moisture support 🙂

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  32. Yesterday TS Rainfall in Chennai

    Taramani – 16.8 mm
    Meena – 14 mm
    Avadi – 13 mm
    Kolapakkam – 11mm
    Villivakkam PO (Ambattur) – 9 mm
    Poonamalle – 9 mm
    Guindy – 6 mm
    Ellapuram (Periyapalayam) – 2.5 mm
    Ennore – 2 mm
    Katupakkam – 2 mm
    Nunga – 1.5 mm
    Minjur – 1.5 mm
    Madhavaram – 1 mm

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  36. Kerala Rainfall Ending 8:30 am
    Thiruvananthapuram Tops With 119 mm

    (a)Kottayam – 83 mm
    (b)Allapuzha – 16 mm
    (c)Kochi – 20 mm
    (d)Kannur-43 mm
    (e)Kozhikode – 8 mm
    (f)Punalur – 38 mm
    (g)Thiruvananthapuram – 119 mm

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  37. Ennaki ts- vs enthaa Chennai pagudi yai thakkum m? Allathu inaikku ts bulb tharumaa :(. Experts in badil ethir pakireen..?

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  40. In conclusion moisture transport in to the UAC (if travels towards the target) will result in good rains.

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      • not like that. discussion is UAC can give any rains? if not why its not giving?
        Overall whether its UAC or LPA/super cyclone, moisture incursion rules the rainfall quantum. Without proper moisture incursion by any means UAC/any stronger system will die slowly without giving any rains.

      • but that UAC is dummy, which giving more wind-confluence. Moisture is coming from 850 hpa level.

  41. Wimbledon from tomorrow….Hope it doesn’t rain much for next 2 weeks…I want federer to win this

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  43. Naked eye promising some rains today…hope it is widespread as Rao sir mentioned…

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  47. Avalanche gets another 200 mm rainfall as Heavy rain continues in Kovai, Nilgiri and Kanyakumari, Tamil Nadu Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 27.06.2015
    ======================================================
    The offshore trough at mean sea level now extends from south Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast.

    in mm (20 mm)

    Avalanche – 225
    Emerald – 117
    Sholayar – 110
    Chinnakalar – 100
    Thunnakkadavu – 87
    Upper Bhavani – 85
    Valparai Taluk Office – 80
    Parsons Valley – 76
    Periyar – 75
    Mukurthy – 75
    Valparai PTO – 73
    Naduvattam – 56
    Devala – 50
    Porthimund – 50
    Mukkadal – 46
    Manomboly – 44
    Lower Kodayar – 43
    Thekkady – 39
    Colachel – 38
    Pykara – 36
    Valparai – 35
    Upper Kodayar – 34
    Mullankivilai – 33
    Kadamaparai – 30
    Chittar I – 25
    Adavinayanar – 25
    Gudalur Bazar – 22
    Upper Aliyar – 21
    Shencottah – 21
    Bhoothapandy – 21
    Puthen Dam – 21
    Adyamadai – 21
    Perunchani – 21
    Killiyoor – 21
    Glenmorgan – 20
    Pechiparai – 20
    Mylaudy – 20
    Kuzhithurai – 20
    Suralode – 20
    Papanasam – 20

    Kea Weather – http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1354

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

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    • PJ sir can you total all avalanche figures from 20 th june you would post those na.
      can you post now for 8 days?

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  48. 2,36,65,91,101,107,111,117,130,134,136,142,143,145,146…… OMG…NON STOP rain na idudanaaaaa…… Idhellammm paakaa inum 3-4 months wait pannaummm (Excluding chennai oly)…!!!!!!!!!

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  50. Break monsoon like conditions prevailing over Konkan, coastal Karnataka and northern parts of Kerala coast. Dry air being driven to the coast from NW by a high pressure area over central Arabian Sea at 700 hPa.. Very dry mid-tropospheric winds too. South Kerala is an exception.

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    • How long will these break monsoon conditions prevail? We used to have even 15 days break monsoon during NEM time. What will the case for SWM?

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      • Each monsoon varies.. Last year there was a 10-day break monsoon! This is expected to recover soon in a few days

  51. OMG! Kanyakumari district battered
    —————
    Kulasekharam – 159 mm (Close to PJ’s hometown)
    Anaikidangu – 70 mm
    Thuckalai – 67 mm
    Killiyoor – 54 mm

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    • thuckalay imd would be different

      Lower Kodayar – 111 mm
      Upper Kodayar – 80 mm

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  54. On a HIGH hot/warm and humid day in SWM season (can be known by morning itself, before noon 12:00 AM),

    1) If all level low, mid & high clouds (know the clouds’ type from wiki) present before noon, then by early evening/late afternoon itself there will be highest chance of wide-spread TS with good rainfall.

    2) If only mid-high clouds (know the clouds’ type from wiki) present before noon, then by late evening/early night itself there will be highest chance of wide-spread TS with good rainfall.

    3) If only high clouds (know the clouds’ type from wiki) present before noon, then by early late night/mid-night/early morning (rare during SWM) itself there will be highest chance of wide-spread TS with good rainfall.

    cloud types wiki (can understood by Google images too): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud

    Note:
    1) 6 more combinations can be derived from humid/hot levels in the order of MEDIUM and LOW with respect to cloud types/hence rainfall pattern.
    2) These NET points learned with experience by watching SWM-rainy days for years since childhood.
    3) One can become NEAR perfect by practicing NET carefully with broad vision to judge the correct combination for that day among 9 probabilities for that day.

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    • RSR— Yday Condition 1 prevailed over BN.Sea Breeze hit BN at 3.30pm and rains started at 3.45pm as if all these clouds were waiting for the Seabreeze moisture to precipitate them.It was a glorious sight.

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  55. Mukuruthy. 30
    Kundah 5 225
    Avalanche & Emerald 117
    PPM dam 43
    Upper Kodayar 80
    Lower Kodayar 111
    Parsons valley 7mm

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  56. Selvan,

    This westerly wave will bring some convectivity for sure. Why it is not during day time. That is your question. This is swm season our natural pattern of rain will be in the evening. Hence we get in the evening.

    We had mjo few days back. Even we get mjo during this season we will get rain in the evening only.

    This will induce uac at around 15n.

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  59. Photography session on Sunday,5th July has seen 15 confirmations until now.Thanks for the enthusiastic response.

    They are 1.Vela 2.Sampath 3.Shankar Spz 4.Thangavel ( Rainvel) 5.Shiva 6.Siva.G 7.Ragha 8.S.T.Pranav 9.Joseph Prabhakar
    10.Jeetu 11.Surya PP 12.GTS 13.PJ 14.Senthilkumar-adambakkam15.Gopal666..There are 2 or 3 bloggers who have asked time until tmrw to do the confirmations.
    We could possibly accomodate another 5 more.Pls mail your confirmations to keabloggers@gmail.com

    Reply

  60. @Pradeep John, Anna Nagar West- on 28th June as per this posting by Dhinakar Rajaram #

    Dhinakar Rajaram 28 June 2014 · Aandhi over Madras. Dust is sweeping. North to South. I last saw a dust strom here in 1987/88.# Will history repeat today

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  61. Agumbe joins 100cm list for the season but still deficit of -433mm..shirali,mangalore,honavar also having significant deficit as of now

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  63. today is a bad day same time last year. A heavy thunderstorm demolished 11 storey building in mugalivakkam and killed 61 people. I pay my respects to the departed soul on their first death anniversary.

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  64. Hot days back in andhra pradesh
    Nellore – 39c
    Ongole -39c
    Tirupathi -38.5c
    Machillipatnam -38c
    Kurnool -37c
    Vizag-37c

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  66. the pictures attached by tamil about sea water entering houses in kanyakumari is horrible to say the least. what is the collecter and revenue authorities are doing in that district. god only knows.

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  67. Partha,mjo dealt with large scale anomalous convection all around the basin tat time wwith two system. So tat is different. Here no other thing like tat Except Isolated ts

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  69. India Monsoon to Lessen; Drier Weather to Take Hold by July:-

    While the threat of flooding downpours will expand westward across northeastern India through early next week, a drier weather pattern that is heightening fears of an eventual summer drought will unfold by July.

    The monsoon had a positive start this June with substantial rain falling from India’s southwest coast to its northeastern corner.

    Mumbai has been inundated with nearly 907 mm (35.70 inches) of rain from June 11 to June 24. That is 155 percent above normal for all of June. Daily rainfall totals on six of those days exceeded 100 mm (4 inches).

    The city of Rajkot picked up 286 mm (11.26 inches) of rain in the 48 hours ending early Thursday morning, local time, as a tropical low crawled through India’s Gujarat state.

    The clouds accompanying this tropical low helped to bring a reduction in heat to New Delhi on Thursday.

    Relief from the heat, however, did not last long as temperatures soared to 39 C (102 F) on Friday.

    Longer stretches of heat are expected moving forward with signs of the monsoon lessening as June transitions to July.

    “The pulse that helped activate the monsoon will move into the western Pacific Ocean, leading to a quieter phase of the monsoon by this weekend,” stated AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls. “This quiet phase will carry into at least the middle of July as the effects from El Niño take hold.”

    “July [rainfall] will end up being below normal across India, except along the southwestern and northeastern coasts,” Nicholls added.

    For the northeastern corner of India, a monsoon low may delay the onset of the drier weather until after the end of June. After unleashing widespread rainfall of 150 to 300 mm (6 to 12 inches) and localized amounts over 500 mm (20 inches) across Bangladesh and Myanmar, the monsoon low will track westward across northeastern India this weekend through early next week.

    As has been the case, the rainfall will be double-edged with flash flooding a concern and the rainfall welcome with the impending drier July set to unfold.

    “The low should not get farther west than Madhya Pradesh and will weaken as it comes westward,” continued Nicholls.

    As the monsoonal rain diminishes, temperatures will then once again be on the rise across the nation. The heat wave that preceded the monsoon killed more than 2,300 people across India in May.

    Heat combined with a lack of monsoon rain threatens to cause significant drought and devastating impacts on agriculture

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  75. Tamil Nadu: Chinnakalar (Coimbatore Dist) 10, Valparai taluk office (Coimbatore Dist) 8, Periyar (Theni Dist), Valparai pto (Coimbatore Dist) 7 each, Naduvattam (Nilgiris Dist) 6, Devala (Nilgiris Dist) 5, Colachel (Kanyakumari Dist) 4, G Bazar (Nilgiris Dist), Shencottah (Tirunelveli Dist), Bhoothapandy (Kanyakumari Dist), Papanasam (Tirunelveli Dist), Pechiparai (Kanyakumari Dist), Mylaudy (Kanyakumari Dist), Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari Dist) 2 each, Eraniel (Kanyakumari Dist), Nagercoil (Kanyakumari Dist), Gudalur (Theni Dist), K bridge (Nilgiris Dist), Uthagamandalam AWS (Nilgiris Dist), Kanyakumari (Kanyakumari Dist), Periyakulam (Theni Dist), Uttamapalayam (Theni Dist), Aranmanaipudur (Theni Dist), Thuckalay (Kanyakumari Dist), Bodinaickanur (Theni Dist) 1 each.

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  76. Nice clear sky in chennai with hot conditions, this may lead to some formation of cumulus soon from now on and also westerlies are quite so sea breeze can set properly like yesterday

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  79. Naked Eye Technology 😛

    This is how South,West & North looks. Hot with Some Cumulus Clouds. Rain Chances are there by Late Evening.

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  80. 94W INVEST As of 06:00 UTC Jun 28, 2015: Location: 6.9°N 145.5°E Maximum Winds: 15 kt Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

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  81. 95W INVEST As of 06:00 UTC Jun 28, 2015: Location: 7.2°N 160.8°E Maximum Winds: 15 kt Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

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  86. keralam rains yesterday

    Kayamkulam(KYK) 140.0
    Mavelikkara(MVK) 120.4
    TRV CITY 119.0
    Nedumangad(NDM) 118.8
    Taliparamba (TPA) 105.2

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  98. 38.3°C
    Trend(Last 5 Minute) : -0.72°C/hr
    Max.(Since 8:30AM) : 38.7°C
    Min.(Since 8:30AM) : 31.8°C

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  99. Did sea breeze set in already?

    Somebody in the morning had mentioned today max will be 37.8 with early sea breeze

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