Monsoonal flow strengthens over Bay of Bengal

A disturbance has developed over northeast bay which has ignited the south west monsoon flow in Bay of Bengal. This monsoonal disturbance will bring heavy rainfall over West Bengal, northeastern states, Andaman Islands and parts of Bihar. TN will remain dry with scattered thunderstorm in a few places. Strong surface winds in bay would create rough seas along West Bengal coast.

02. Meteosat5
Chennai to remain Hot and humid with temperature around 38 C.

Coimbatore will be around 30C with scattered thunderstorm activity.

Madurai City will be mostly cloudy with the temperature around 35C.

1,014 thoughts on “Monsoonal flow strengthens over Bay of Bengal

  1. Today most of the day kea.metsite will not be functioning. Again electricity trouble. I am getting only 150 wattage power. Need some major work. Cables need to be changed.

  2. Just a reminder on the photography workshop on Sunday,5th July between 10am and 11.30am anchored by our blogger Srivats Shankaran.Thanks for the enthusiastic response.Do confirm yr participation by mailing at keabloggers@gmail.com

    Srivats is also holding a photo documentary at Elliots beach between today ( 26th June ) and Sunday ( 28th June) for a social cause.If you are visiting that area,do peep in.
    http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-features/tp-metroplus/exhibition-to-create-awareness-on-vitiligo/article7343438.ece
    http://www.buzzintown.com/chennai/events/vitiligo-beautiful-photo-exhibition/id–985728.html

  3. Slightly pleasant than yesterday. Its time for Strong TS in Chennai almost 25 days of june over with less than 10mm.

  4. Congratulations Raijin for your AWS to be uploaded in WUNDERGROUND every 10 seconds.
    Good News

  5. Heavily overcast here in Bangalore with lots of fast moving low level clouds! Signs of active monsoon in W Coast.

    • abnormal sst along tn,kerala regions..sometimes there wont b any cloud activity/convection when sst increases above threshold level of triggering convection..

  6. “We stick to our forecast,”said on June 22 G.P. Sharma, a Skymet vice president,
    IMD the weather department says it will review this year’s forecast again at the end of July.
    “There is any possibility it can be totally wrong, but at this point in time as far as we are concerned we don’t like to revise our forecast,” L.S. Rathore, the IMD’s director general, said on June 23. “We have confidence in our July and August forecast.”
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-25/don-t-be-a-wet-blanket-on-india-s-monsoon-top-forecaster-says

  7. Delhi’s main weather station, Safdarjung, recorded 20.7mm rain in the 24 hours till 8.30am on Thursday. Thereafter, just 0.3mm was recorded till the evening. Mungeshpur in the city’s northwest extremity recording the maximum 28mm.The monsoon, however, is not likely to make much of an impact in the coming days. The Met office said it does not expect heavy rain over the next week or so.
    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/Monsoon-rushes-in-then-takes-a-break-in-Delhi/articleshow/47822562.cms

  8. a study shows the diurnal variability of precipitation rate during southwest monsoon along different parts of india.
    over central india rainfall peaks during late afternoon whereas over foothills of himalaya early morning peak is observed and over bay of bengal morning peak is observed!! tis clearly shows how air -sea interaction and air- land interaction varies !!

    • Nice to hear that Prad. Madurai dearly needs a break from scorching heat. Madras dhaan, ippo vaanam paartha bhoomi..We ate looking at all directions hoping for some showers.

  9. Trend in Oct-Nov-Dec seasonal rainfall over Tamil Nadu:
    —————————————————————-

  10. When SST near the coast is above normal we cannot expect sea breeze to set in time, since the cold air moves towards land, when sea itself warmer and not having much difference against land, then the sea breeze will set in late or will never set.

    Nowadays it is becoming very hot, even in the night, the heat is making uncomfortable for us to sleep, the AC’s are running without break during the night.

  11. Ehsan lets see what Avalanche, Parsons Valley and Upper Bhavani;s rainfall are. They have posted 100mm and above for 6 days. Can it continue for 7th day.

  12. Raijin, why cant u just name it Kelambakkam. It gives u more exposure that way. Just a suggestion. We can even compare ur rainfall witht Hindustan University AWS and Kelambakkam SRG.

  13. Ehsan No break in rains in Nilgiris today also (7th straight day 100 mm rainfall). Parsons Valley 152 mm, Upper Bhavani 110 mm, Porthimund 100 mm and Avalanche 98 mm.

  14. anomalous convergence at lower level associated with mjo seen in last 5 days.. primary maxima seen in near w.central pacific and secondary maxima seen near north arabian sea in accordance with a recent depression

  15. MJO expected in Phase 6 by today or tomorrow.

    Moisture due to MJO is still available in Bay, Positive OLR anomaly increasing over West Coast and Arabian Sea. Once MJO moves into Phase 6 and keeps moving then Bay will also get the Positive OLR, which will reduce the rainfall across the country.

    This July is expected to have below normal rainfall as the forecasts suggests that Positive OLR likely to dominate Indian Ocean through out this month until first week of August.

  16. Mini heat wave playing around ntn and sap
    Ongole – 37
    Nellore- 39
    Chennai – 39
    Tirupathi – 41.4
    Vellore -37
    Pondhichery -39
    All cities recorded 3 to 4 degrees above normal temperature

  17. Chittor Nellore Prakasam Ongole Machilipatnam under heat wave

    Tirupati records county highest temperature yesterday

    Tirupati – 41.4 degrees

  18. seems some respite expected for chennai till 30th june as temp may stick 36-37c..but july 1st week is going to b very horrible

  19. TS possible today across Chennai and suburbs, it can be a widespread.
    Watch out for it. We might see this TS activity today and tomorrow.

    Will say the reason by tomorrow if it succeeds.
    I am observing something, i am giving this forecast based on that.

    Also rain in Nilgiris and West TN will continue till tomorrow.
    Lets wait and see.

  20. Dams in Kanyakumari are getting full, Heavy rain continues in Nilgiris, Coimbatore and Kanyakumari. Tamil Nadu Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 25.06.2015
    ======================================================
    The offshore trough at mean sea level from south Gujarat coast to north Kerala coast persists. In Kanyakumari most dams are full considering the daily rains.

    1. Pechiparai Full Capacity 4350 mcft and current level is 3601 mcft
    2. Perunchani Full Capacity 2890 mcft and current level is 2220 mcft (It overflowed. But no idea why they are letting so much water out as already rains are pounding the area and they can keep the level around 2700 mcft and they lettting so much water out and its only flowing waste into the Sea through the Kuzhiturra/Thambarabarani River.
    3. Upper Kodayar Full Capacity 2579 mcft and current level is 1807 mcft
    4. Chittar II full capacity 600 mcft current lvel 571 mcft
    5. Chittar I full capacity 393 mcft current level 371 mcft

    The other smaller dams Mambahzthuriyaru is reaching is full capacity of 54 ft. Poigai dam is at 9 ft against full level of 11 ft. Mukkadal is at 21 feet and slowly reaching towards full level of 25 feet.

    Rainfall in mm (min 20 mm)

    Porthimund – 130
    Parsons Valley – 120
    Avalanche – 120
    Upper Bhavani – 110
    Valparai PTO – 107
    Devala – 101
    Gudalur Bazar – 91
    Lower Nirar – 93
    Mukkadal – 88
    Chinnakalar – 86
    Mukurthy – 60
    Sholayar – 60
    Mullankivilai – 57
    Naduvattam – 54
    Emerald – 53
    Periyar – 52
    Lower Glenmorgan – 43
    Upper Kodayar -42
    Kuzhithurai – 40
    Valparai Taluk Office – 40
    Balamore – 39
    Pechiparai – 38
    Pykara – 35
    Mambazhathuraiyaru – 35
    Anaikadangu – 34
    Papanasam – 33
    Kannimar – 33
    Koliporvilai – 33
    Manomboly – 31
    Colachel – 31
    Valparai – 31
    Thekkady – 31
    Thuckalay – 30
    Lower Kodayar – 28
    Adyamadai – 28
    Bhoothapandy – 29
    Kottar – 26
    Puthen Dam – 26
    Kodimudiyaru – 25
    Neyoor – 25
    Perunchani – 25
    Chittar I – 24
    Suralode – 23
    Glenmorgan – 22
    Karupandhi – 22
    Radhapuram – 21
    Mylaudy – 20
    Karuthancode – 20
    Adavinyanar – 20
    Chittar II – 20
    Sandyanallah – 20

    Kea Weather – http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1354

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

  21. Sky looks better than yesterday in chennai, yesterday there was full of cirrus clouds which doesn’t indicate rain but today there are some low level clouds moving with cumulus trying to develop

    • It depends upon VS factor without considering moisture factor….a sudden formation of ts without any liable reason…dr.rao knows more, I’m making some own theory regarding this

  22. Here is an interesting article about the only monsoon league Cricket game in the world, still played every year,
    The Kanga League was primarily designed to help players get used to playing on wet track in the days of uncovered pitches worldwide.
    From a tournament that started with 25 teams and one division, it has now mushroomed to 98 clubs and gymkhanas across seven divisions. Matches are spread all over the city and there have been times when a game has been washed out in one locality, while bright sunshine made a full day’s play possible in another. Fielders have had to wade through paddy field-like outfields; playing forward, batsmen used to get muck on their faces from the ball landing on the damp pitch.
    Some renowned cricketers who played the league are Sunil Gavaskar, Vengsarkar, Tendulkar.Zaheer Khan, Wasim Jaffer, Nari Contractor,Polly Umrigar,Farokh Engineer, Karsan Ghavri and Abbas Ali Baig, to name a few,
    http://www.wisdenindia.com/cricket-article/fading-charm-kanga-league/125658

  23. Uneven monsoon in AP and Telangana..
    It rained 30 day rainfall amount in just 4 days….and now very humid and dry
    Worst in Rayalaseema and also Hyderabad..

      • Still Tungabhadra in karnataka should reach 1633 feet to release water to AP….
        In AP this water is fed to Sunkesula and then to Srisailam(885 feet) and then to Nagarjunasagar(590 feet) and then to Bay of Bengal..
        Still water did not even enter AP and moreover no rains in AP and also karnataka

      • Yeah almost every year it happens, but most of the Krishna water is stored in Jurala Tungabhadra,Srisailam Nagarjunasagar and Prakasam barriage

  24. Two major dams
    Srisailam and Nagarjunasagar almost reached dead level water storage..
    Two make both dams full we need minimum 5 depressions

      • Yes successive Govt talk about, but nothing happens – a popular actor made a dramatic announcement of donating Rs.1 cr. His money safe becoz he knew very well it will never happen – we follow the principle of divide and rule -which we inherited from the british.

      • exactly, i know it will be a tedious task, but every year we are seeing some areas with in a state receiving excess rainfall, and letting out the water waste to the sea, and some areas receive less rainfall and facing drought situation

      • But in reality it is impossible…For instance AP and Telangana got many disputes on krishna water and moreover interlinking godavari and krishna will take the quarrels to a peak stage

  25. Happy to see value addition increasing day by day – There will be a day where there wont by any space to see “Top Commentators” like Top Authors – it will also disappear – to add more weather related information. Congrats @ Raijni

  26. swm windflow has changed strong nw winds at higer levels storms should com frm nw,parts of chennai and areas near deltas has som chance this evening..temp should also go up since dry nw winds

  27. Kottigehara records over 1000 mm in just 4 days

    22.06.2015 – 343 mm
    23.06.2015 – 228 mm
    24.06.2015 – 252 mm
    25.06.2015 – 249 mm

    It contributes to Hemavathi which when overflows contributes to KRS which inturn to Mettur

  28. SWM over India is 44% excess in June so far.

    East and NE india trailing high.

    South India leading with 100% excess, except Chennai, even overall TN has received excess rainfall, thanks to abnormal rains in Nilgiris, which has increased the average of entire TN.

    SST anomaly over West Pacific is still on the increasing phase, averages more than 1C across the regions. This anomaly should turn Negative in July to get rainfall in this pattern, but conditions looking bleak at the moment.

    Note – SST anomaly in North Bay and Arabian Sea is turning negative.
    Positive IOD also getting delayed, since the SST over West Indian Ocean is slightly above than East, which is still far below than Positive IOD threshold.

    Due to high SST over West Pacific, there are more CC forming over the region and this pulling the lower level moisture above 15N in bay region. Even though MJO has surpassed Phase 5 the SST remains same. This is not good for the upcoming crucial months of SWM.

    http://imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/weeklypress.pdf
    http://www.imdchennai.gov.in/hydro.pdf
    http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-267.55,-0.95,253
    http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-267.55,-0.95,253

  29. Hosanagar in Shimoga records 1500 mm in just 5 days

    22.06.2015 – 279 mm
    22.06.2015 – 410 mm
    23.06.2015 – 299 mm
    24.06.2015 – 312 mm
    25.06.2015 – 198 mm

    • Chennai will make up for june’s loss in July, Aug nd Sep!! late may to mid – july has almsot become middle east like in Chennai these days!! with max 38 to 40c nd min sticking to 30c!

  30. Heavy rains in Tungabhadra catchment areas of Karnataka. Tungabhadra dam in Hospet receiving 30000 cusecs inflow.
    Rainfall minimum 120 mm [ 24 hour rain as of 25 june 2015 ]
    ==================================================
    Kottigehara – 249 mm
    Hosanagar – 198 mm
    Madikere 195 mm
    Byakody – 142 mm
    Aralagod – 142 mm
    Linganamakki – 137 mm
    Kogar – 137 mm
    Kerekatte – 124 mm
    Agumbe – 123 mm
    Bilur – 120 mm

  31. Deep Depression Leaves trail of Destruction in Gujarat with Historic Rainfall
    ==================================================
    The Deep Depression made landfall over south Gujarat coast near Diu on 23rd June 2015 and dumped historic rainfal. Amreli district was the worst hit. Bagasra got its annual rainfall in one day.

    in mm

    24.06.2015
    ============
    Una – 324
    Gir Gadhada – 288
    Malia – 269
    Kodinar – 225
    Talala – 219
    Rajula – 192
    Diu – 189
    Rajkot – 167

    25.06.2015
    ============
    Bagasra – 636
    Dhari – 511
    Variyav – 400
    Vadia – 393
    Gondal – 257
    Lodhika – 252
    Palitana – 251
    Wanakbori – 245
    Kotdasangani – 237
    Malpur – 216
    Vadali – 200
    Shahera – 194
    Bhiloda – 190
    Khedbrahma – 189
    Godhra – 184
    Lathi – 182
    Amreli – 182
    Bhavnagar – 182
    Savarkundla – 180
    Jessar – 180
    Idar – 177
    Surat – 177
    Vallabhipur – 177
    Umrala – 164
    Meghraj – 161

    Kea Weather – http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1354

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

  32. Naked Eye Technology 😛

    Isolated TS possible Today in Chennai. TS accompained with Squall in some areas could be.

  33. Good Cloud Cover Almost 70% This is the Best day i could say in this june. Scattered Cumulus all around Chennai.

  34. PJ and Mouli,

    The following WV insat shows the clouds over East Bay is not a pull effect, that is Negative OLR impact of MJO in Phase 6.

    See the attached pic, shows the blue line across over East and Bay of Bengal, that effect showing in Mouli’s WV insat.

    • I think they are avasara kudukku, we have to wait for entire season before they call them right, saying normal monsoon in the past 2 years is not a big achievement, this year they are going to face it.

      July and August rainfall might be weak, with just June rainfall they cannot say that monsoon normal, unless there is a positive iod and west pacific sst to normal, SWM will not succeed.

      • so you consider this year monsoon will be failure at the end partha? with a expected negative IOD and SST conditions.

  35. Rayalaseema is also getting v good rains, a friend whose family are farmers in Kadapa told me. Wonder why SWM has completely bypassed Chennai.

  36. Can you help me with Gujarat rain fall figures – Have couple of friends from Gujarat who will be happy about it

  37. @disqus_8PPbW5fROi:disqus NET theory “TS accompained with Squall in some areas” – It could be certainly S.C. enough symptoms are there

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