The Deep Depression in North Arabian Sea crossed the south Gujarat coast spurring heavy rains all the way up to the ‘Wheat bowl of India (Punjab)’ and the neighboring states during the next 2-3 days. This system will also drum up the Monsoon March into Northwest India ahead of its normal dates.Heavy rains will continue across the west coast and East Indian plains.Rains will continue to stay away from most parts of TN.
Chennai will experience a partly cloudy day with maximum temperature touching 38 C with an uncomfortable night. Isolated Thunderstorms expected over certain parts towards late evening.
24
Coimbatore will have a pleasant, breezy day with light showers. Maximum temperature would settle close to 31 C.
Madurai will remain sunny with scattered clouds hitting a Maximum temperature of 37C
Is this topic from Media Gokul going to come as tmrw’s DC report? 🙂
Hope some freak ts hits city like yesterday evng….but 24hr break rule will be broken?
First toady also be a sunny day with humid (may not be overcast). If 24 hrs rule broken today, then need to understand TS rains might be due to DD’s pushing effect.
Or swm influential
What is 24hr break rule?
OMG..Massive convection near gujarat. Huge cloud mass.
Very serious rains occuring in Gujarat coast
This deep depression while moving inland is expected to interact with a western disturbance which is Marching towards Kashmir. Interaction of both likely to create massive rain ms in North Indian hence the monsoon onset happens over North India
Bright sunshine
expected.
hope its another 38+ day with intense evening TS
yes. hope so.
Today’s skymets report
Wait for Monsoon in Uttar Pradesh has finally come to an end, with Monsoon making onset over the state on Tuesday. It has also progressed further into more parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and covered entire Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand.
Weather conditions are favourable for the advancement of Monsoon and may arrive over Delhi NCR in next 2 to 3 days.
The rapid progress over Monsoon is due the several weather systems across the country, which has enhanced the rainfall activity both in terms of intensity and spread.
Off-shore trough along the West Coast continues to persist, while the depression over north-east ArabianSea has intensified into deep depression and has slightly moved eastwards. Both the system will give heavy rainfall over Gujarat and Konkan and Goa.
Mumbaikars will once again have to gear up for heavy rains with increasing intensity.
On the eastern side, Low pressure area has weakened slightly and is presently over Jharkhand and adjoining Bihar and West Bengal region. In wake of this, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar and West Bengal will get moderate to heavy rain on Wednesday.
Moving on to North India, a fresh Western Disturbance is affecting Jammu and Kashmir. The system is expected to give heavy to very heavy rain over hilly states of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and parts of Uttarakhand.
A trough from this is also extending up to the centre of deep Depression, across a cyclonic circulation that can be seen over North Rajasthan and adjoining Punjab.
Another trough is extending from this cyclonic circulation up to the Low pressure area. These multiple weather systems will be triggering moderate to heavy rain over Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh on Wednesday.
Now talking about Northeast India, after witnessing lull for last few days, the intensity of rain over the region will pick up the pace once again, as moist southerly winds are blowing over the region.
A 20 year odyssey (1980-2000) of Quasi-biennial Oscillation of the Stratosphere’s depictive you-tube link
So far so good
QBO forecasted to become westerly phase (+ve, already started increasing), at the same time we know about ONI-index’s increasing trend. So both will be moving in proportional (same direction).
So according SWM-QBOONI, SWM must end on normal note.
When I can see severe Ts for chennai
July
during next 2-3 days (including today)
Rajkot battered
Rajkot has recorded 163 mm till; 5:30..!
Beautiful structure over land
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/satellite/Asia/India/Visible.htm
Gud morning all…Sunny morning
El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean to have no impact on monsoon rains: Expert
http://m.economictimes.com/news/economy/indicators/el-nino-phenomenon-in-the-pacific-ocean-to-have-no-impact-on-monsoon-rains-expert/articleshow/47792466.cms
I get a feeling that yesterday was not an active monsoon day in North Kerala and Coastal Karnataka! Figures today may suggest the same today.
Yesterday very active for chennai
This lull monsoon in W coast always had something to do with Chennai rains.
Is kerala or karnataka still in deficit?
Mangalore, Panambur are all in deficit. Even places in N Kerala still reeling in deficit.
Any rains in bangalore this June?
8cms till now. Now, Bangalore stands 12mm above normal.
Isolated areas in Ghat areas of SI Karnataka and Kerala got good rains from the last heavy spell.
It was all about the low level convergence yesterday.
Why all models (including IMD & Skymet) failed in predicting 20% excess SWM rains in June ?
So how we can beleive these models’ remaining SWM season’s rainfall?
Yes. That’s vagaries of weather. Elnino and Indian Monsoon mystery continues.Experts are divided in their opinion as there are many other factors which also decide our monsoon.
it is clear novak, there is an impact on SWM when ELNINO emerges, but what kind of ELNINO it is, that is very important.
this is what i am saying, this time we have perfect ELNINO, hence the SST over West Pacific is reducing, it might come closer to normal in July, hence there wont any disturbance to the wind over Indian subcontinent, the same condition has prevailed in 1997, that is why India as a whole got good rainfall.
SST over West Pacific is very very important for SWM during ELNINO years.
Congrats GTSji, on your debut in topic Authors list
‘Sea-surface temperature hike may lead to weak monsoon’
A five degree Celsius increase in sea-surface temperature (SST) over the last five years is causing increased precipitation over the sea and weakening the Southwest monsoon over the landmass, scientists from the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) said. “Unlike land, the sea surfaces retain the heat for a long time. Now, this phenomenon has led to little difference between land and sea temperature,” said B Venkateshwara Rao, an expert at the Centre for Atmospheric Sciences and Weather Modification Techniques.
He said due to minimal difference between sea and land temperature, the moisture which earlier used to move over from the seas to the land, is stagnating over the sea.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/hyderabad/Sea-surface-temperature-hike-may-lead-to-weak-monsoon/articleshow/47793869.cms
IMD Chennai was spot on y’days rain in Chennai, I think Vinothji also gave a hint about this y’day
El Nino may have only a minor impact
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/el-nino-may-have-only-a-minor-impact/article7347797.ece
Rainfall across South and West India likely to reduce from next 48 to 72 hours, as the positive olr likely to emerge. This is due to MJO movement towards Phase 6.
River Bhavani in spate, flood alert sounded
http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/tp-tamilnadu/river-bhavani-in-spate-flood-alert-sounded/article7348524.ece
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-23/el-nino-seen-strengthening-as-pacific-warms-just-like-it-s-1997
Elnino gains strength
Due to heavy rainfall and storm in Uttara Kannada district for the past five days, more than 500 power transmission poles
have broken down, over 100 TCs have crashed and 40 mobile towers have stopped working, a report said on Tuesday.
Telephone service in various rural areas of in Sirsi, Siddapur, Yellapur, Honnavar and Bhatkal taluks has crashed. Power supply has been disrupted in various areas of the district.
Hope rains start in UP; Punjab and Haryana soon
More than 200 farmers, staff of various central and state government departments, representatives of NGOs, and academic
institutions underwent a two-day training programme in ‘aquifer information and management on participatory approach’ at the Periyar University.
The tier-III training programme was organised jointly by the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB), South Eastern Coastal Region, Chennai; Rajiv Gandhi National Ground Water Training and Research Institute, Raipur, in association with the Department of Geology of Periyar University here. http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/tp-tamilnadu/training-programme-in-aquifer-management/article7348494.ece
Nice to see weather forecast in DC…how is the temp forecast given?
In which page it comes
No idea…just saw yest topic
Oh
http://epaper.deccanchronicle.com/epaper_main.aspx?id=CHN
see page 4
Got it
http://epaper.deccanchronicle.com/articledetailpage.aspx?id=3089601
in e-paper see city (4)
Thanks
not a good start for july
Farmers want more water from Gunderipallam Dam
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tamil-nadu/farmers-want-more-water-from-gunderipallam-dam/article7348497.ece
It is clear, there is an impact on SWM when ELNINO emerges, but what kind of ELNINO it is, that is very important.
This is what i am saying, this time we have perfect ELNINO, hence the SST over West Pacific is reducing, it might come closer to normal in July, hence there wont any disturbance to the wind over Indian subcontinent, the same condition has prevailed in 1997, that is why India as a whole got good rainfall.
SST over West Pacific is very very important for SWM during ELNINO years.
No more confusions, lets wait for IOD to become Positive, even though it is not strong, decreasing SST over West Pacific will allow SWM to become normal.
There are no other factors influencing. It is clear.
Partha, All strong Elnino years like 1957, 1965, 1972, 1982, 1987, and 1997 are perfect Elnino years. But only 1957 & 1997 years recorded normal SWM rainfall despite +ve IOD. In 1965 IOD is -ve to neutral. How can you define SWM-deficits in all the violated perfect strong Elnino years like 1972, 1982 and 1987 with +ve IOD?
that is because of SST over West Pacific, this is what i am analysing now, just give me some time, will tell you with examples.
1987 had positive iod but SWM failed.
same gts topic in dc. so the unknown man controversy overa
We have chance for TS today evening.
Ya, break monsoon always help Chennai’s Cause!
Expecting in desert Nunga too
yeah most of the conditions looks positive!!
Jun 24 2015 : The Times of India (Chennai)
Amid good monsoon, El Nino gains strength
New Delhi:
Even as the monsoon’s great run continued and the season’s countrywide rainfall grew to 23% above normal on Tuesday , United States and Australian agencies reported a further strengthening of El Nino, the weather condition that is predicted to hit the monsoon’s performance in the coming months.Both updates, one from Columbia University and the other from Australia’s weather bureau, said El Nino was likely to grow stronger in the coming months.
“There is now a 99% chance of El Nino for the June-August season,“ said the update from Columbia’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society . The Australian forecast was similar. It added that conditions in the Indian Ocean were expected to remain neutral in the coming months. A positive phase is said to favour the southwest monsoon. The twin updates come as a reminder that overall conditions continue to be adverse for good monsoon rain this year. These were the basis for the India Meteorological Department’s forecast of a deficient monsoon this year.
However, as the plentiful rain in the past two weeks indicate, other fac tors could come to the aid of the mon soon from time to time. In the presen case, it was a travelling rain-bearing weather disturbance called the Mad den Julian Oscillation (MJO) that en ergized the monsoon and lead to its surge in central and southern parts of the country . With MJO’s effect likely to wear thin in the next three-four days, the monsoon is expected to enter a weak phase by next week, which is likely to continue into the first week of July .
With a week to go, it’s already Mumbai’s wettest June
Mumbai: The rain gods over Mumbai have made the weathermen go totally off the mark, again. There are seven days left for the month to end, but this is the wettest June the city has seen, with Santacruz recording 1,038.6mm of rain so far, higher than the previous all-time record of 1,037.1mm in 1971.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has records going back to 1951, and in all these decades, the department has confirmed, it has not rained so much in Mumbai in June. This despite forecasts in May by both IMD and US experts of a monsoon that would have the shadow of El Nino hovering over it, thus affecting overall rainfall. As per IMD, Colaba has so far recorded 827.8mm and in Santacruz, the rainfall has been the highest for the month. The expected average rainfall for the season is 2,230mm for Colaba and 2,558mm for Santacruz. The record rainfall for June during the decade starting 2005 had earlier been 1,029.8mm, in 2013. TNN
Parsons valley again 312mm wth :0
what Is the normal annual rainfall for that place?
PJ should have better idea
El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean to have no impact on monsoon rains: Expert
The El Nino phenomenon, which has often disrupted rainfall in India, has intensified to a level that exceeds its record of 1997, but meteorologists draw comfort from the fact that the monsoon was normal that year, and other parameters in the Indian Ocean may boost the rainfall over India in July. The Australian weather office said on Tuesday the dreaded El Nino is strengthening further and would continue in the second-half of the year.
“The 2015 El Nino continues to strengthen. Central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature indices are more than 1°C above average for the sixth consecutive week,” said the weather bureau, which added models indicate further consolidation is likely.
It also said three out of five international models suggested a rain-boosting phenomenon called the Indian Ocean Dipole is turning positive. IOD refers to differences in temperature between the western and eastern part of the Indian Ocean. Weather scientists said a similar development helped neutralise the impact of El Nino in its record year 1997-98. It also strengthened the monsoon in 2006.
DS Pai, head of long-range forecasting, India Meteorological Department, said the IOD was currently neutral in the positive side.”As per our forecast, the current warm neutral IOD conditions over Indian Ocean are likely to continue throughout the summer and till the end of the year. A positive IOD in September-November season will make no impact on the monsoon rains,” he said.
He said the moderate El Nino conditions currently prevailing are likely to reach moderate to strong level during the monsoon season and continue till early part of the next year.
International forecasters have been almost unanimous in issuing warnings that El Nino, associated with warmer temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, will disrupt global rainfall patterns, which can parch parts of Asia and Australia, and trigger storms and floods in other regions.
India’s worst drought in 37 years in 2009 took place in an El Nino year. Food prices shot up by an annual 20%, leading to persistently high inflation for years. This year, the Met has forecast a 12% deficiency in the monsoon but private forecaster Skymet has sharply differed and predicted normal rainfall in the June-September season. June has proved both of them wrong as nobody predicted rainfall to be more than 20% in excess as has been the case so far.
So everyone (media) make use of El Nino topic to post something ….. which we won’t understand
Vela…thats precisely my thought as well. What exactly is the impact going to be of this El Nino, Positive / negative/ neutral IOD on this years Monsoon is anybody’s guess. Every one has one version it looks like
krish…..mostly neutral iod upto mid september…..then postive iod would emerge
Most of us can’t understand… Incl me
From do you get this information?
Is it a record that captain is posting such a huge post!
That too El-nino, IOD etc type of posts.. Never seen him go too much technical
valparai 104 mm today
Rami,
Even though we had Positive IOD with ELNINO in 1987, most of the time the OLR was Positive over India and it has suppressed the convection of SWM.
I have taken this animation from June 1st to 30th September 1987.
It was a strong Positive IOD year.
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showarchivedhoriz.php?year=1987&month=6&day=1&year2=1987&month2=9&day2=30
why there was a shortfall in SWM 1987?
+ve OLR means less convection. Why this +ve OLR happened despite +ve IOD with respect to strong Elnino?
this has happened twice in 1982 and 1987 as well, both were having Positive IOD and ELNINO, but lesser than normal rainfall.
this is what i am trying to identify, can you search for west pacific sst anomaly of 82 and 87?
i am searching for the same.
Count 1972 too
i do not have animation for that year, i am getting from 1982 only.
Ok
Veraval 110mm till 8.30
Parsons Valley does a Cherrapunji, gets around 1400 mm (Chennai’s Annual Rainfall) in just 4 days
===========================================
The offshore trough at mean sea level from south Gujarat coast to north Kerala coast persists. This is one of the heaviest rainfall since the days i can recollect.
Parsons Valley last 4 days rainfall
————————-
20.06.2015 – 342 mm
21.06.2015 – 230 mm
22.06.2015 – 398 mm
23.06.2015 – 392 mm
================
1362 mm in 4 days
================
Avalanche last 4 days rainfall
————————-
20.06.2015 – 225 mm
21.06.2015 – 182 mm
22.06.2015 – 324 mm
23.06.2015 – 245 mm
================
976 mm in 4 days
================
Tamil Nadu Rainfall in mm ending 8.30 am on 23.06.2015
========================
Parsons Valley – 392
Avalanche – 245
Siruvani – 212
Devala – 149
Adivaram – 149
Gudalur Bazar – 148
Emerald – 127
Pykara – 126
Upper Bhavani – 120
Periyar – 118
Glenmorgan – 115
Valparai PTO – 93
Sandyanallah – 93
Lower Nirar – 80
Valparai PAP – 73
Chinnakallar – 76
Chincona – 67
Valparai Taluk Office – 67
Sholayar – 60
Naduvattam – 56
Upper Kodayar – 51
Uthagamandalam – 47
Ketti – 40
Karupandhi – 40
Kea Weather – http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1354
Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html
Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman
omg. Parsons Valley 4th 300 mm rainfall in 5 days. Today 312 mm. Avalanche 105 mm and Upper Bhavani 119 mm.
Parsons Valley now has got around 1700 mm in just 5 days.
. This para suggests very good rainfall for chennai for both swm and nem ////
“As per our forecast, the current warm neutral IOD conditions over
Indian Ocean are likely to continue throughout the summer and till the
end of the year. A positive IOD in September-November season will make
no impact on the monsoon rains,” he said.
he means who
Ds pai
DS Pai, head of long-range forecasting, India Meteorological Department,
Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/47792466.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
Atchu it suggests only good NEM.
el nino with neural iod wont affect much swm ts in chennai….
Kerala deficit at 32% as per yesterday report
It will get more rains in coming weeks.
today wayanad another 100 mms Jon.
Bad news for swm in jul
The same IMD – Long Rang Forecast also predicted in May for July Period……
Rami,
If you see 1982 and 87, both had positive iod and elnino, hence SWM failed in both the years. The same condition continued until Oct-Dec in both the year, but NEM failed in 1982 and successful in 1987.
Only difference is IOD became Neutral in October 1982, but in 1987 it was continuing in Positive mode.
See the OLR animation of both year NEM.
Based on the first OLR, i could observe that there were couple of cyclones formed in November 1987, which would have made the NEM normal that year, but the cyclones were absent in 1982.
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showarchivedhoriz.php?year=1982&month=10&day=1&year2=1982&month2=12&day2=31
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showarchivedhoriz.php?year=1987&month=10&day=1&year2=1987&month2=12&day2=31
Partha OLR is the consequence/inference. It can not influence weather dynamics. Need to find other reasons other than OLR.
i am not saying OLR is the reason, i am finding out the reason for that weak OLR, that is why i said to you to find out the SST over West Pacific.
So this is right example for that even elnino with positive iod cant give excess always……..
omg 35+ now at 11.00 hope we will reach 38.2 today..
But ‘QBOONI simple rule’ can’t say whether it will rain today or not right?? 🙂
so some ts on cards for Chennai today 🙂
Flash…
SWM- season’s QBOONI rule:
When QBO is in decreasing trend with respect to ONI index’s increasing trend (means if both moving in opposite directions/inversely proportional) during SWM-season, then SWM will record less than normal and vice-versa.
NEM-season’s QBOONI rule:
Quite opposite for NEM rains when compared to SWM’s QBOONI.
Means if QBO is in decreasing trend with respect to ONI index’s increasing trend (means if both moving in opposite directions/inversely proportional) during NEM-season, then NEM will be normal/excess and vice-versa.
Note:
1. QBOONI rule utilizes only 2 parameters, QBO & ONI indexes (both can foreseen in accurate in advance).
2. With this powerful QBOONI rule, one can ignore all parameters like MJO, SOI, IOD, NAO, AO, etc. Thus lot of confusion can be avoided. Under favorable QBOONI rule, dynamics will orient in such way to give bountiful rains during NEM/SWM seasons.
3. We can get clear equation in Elnino/Lanina years. But ENSO-neutral years also can get clear cut correlation most of the times.
Rao sir.. Just now started to learn about MJO, SOI, IOD etc.. U are asking to ignore.. Enna kodumai raoji!!
This QBOONI can be used for long range seasonal forecast. Carry your learning skills about MJO, SOI, IOD, etc can be used to predict daily/weekly rainfall forecasts.
yes..raoji.
Pillur dam inflow – 14400 cusecs. The dam is full and excess water is let into Bhavani Sagar. the 2nd biggest dam in TN.
Good News….
Thariode 143, kuttiyadi 105mm
Prehistoric weather shines light on today’s climate
In a study published last month in the journalGeophysical Research Letters, Oster and a group of scientists reported their findings from the Mawmluh cave they examined in India, home to the wettest place on Earth —Meghalaya, a state in the northeastern part of the country.
Based on minerals still in the ground from that time period, researchers discovered a reduced amount of rainfall in India during monsoons when sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean were warmer. These findings jibe with more recent historical records. Warmer ocean temperatures in the Pacific are consistent with El Nino events, which tend to coincide with droughts in central India.
“Now that we have shown that the Mawmluh cave record agrees with the instrumental record for the last 50 years, we hope to use it to investigate relationships between the Indian monsoon and El Niño during prehistoric times such as the Holocene,” Oster said.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/06/06/kostigen-prehistoric-weather/28480345/
RamiRao…high voltage deluge possible for meena today evening!!!
did you get naked eye based indications??
how how how????
porumai porumai
Means full moon day?
It mean patience. 🙂
Full moon day is Pournami
Sea Breeze Started to form so early
So no rains?
this much early breeze that too in june???
doesn’t really matter. It will remain weak till 7 pm
Some low level Clouds around west looks like Thunder Strom Chances are good today
jon partner…congrats
when is your chance?
Decent rains all over
Mahabaleshwar – 270 mm
Cherrapunji – 199 mm
Rajkot – 167 mm
Agumbae – 94 mm
Madikeri – 79 mm
What is the procedure to get Keatured?? 🙂
Post 15 Lines of paragraph 😛
lol mouli.
Thats the thing to get Featured Comment
Different yardsticks for different people?
when there is something interesting it will get featured
not about featured comment
Different yardsticks for different people for El Nino Vs Excess Rainfall Vs Drought Rainfall Vs Normal Rainfall
in my six years. I was keatured only twice. Kea please put some yardstick for getting featured. Like minimum 10 likes etc. Else put Keatured will be done only on sole authority of Admin.
friend the issue is not about featured comment at all
yes ,i got it wat u meant to say.. diverging opinion on elnino impact over indian rainfall
Ohh adhukum data vaa?
After 50 “likes” for yours anything less than that difficult to digest
it just 2 novak. I can remember that. My memory is very strong. since i deal with numbers all the time.
The Number Man..
Now each one will try to “figure it ” out as how many times they have keatured
This shows that we have not yet learned about the nature….
sir i want to clarify my position now, today morning I wished GTSji.that post got deleted, i thought only weather related comments only allowed from today, thts all
it is still there. refresh and check again.
if it’s ok, but even after 4 to 5 times of refreshing i failed to see my comment, as well as your morning comment about Elnino, i feel sorry for creating an issue
you even have got 3 likes
sir, still your early morning comment about Elnino missing, leave it,
It is very much there with three “likes” also. Normally even abnormal things never gets deleted here. What you posted is an appreciation why would get deleted. Eyes might have played a trick.
Latest ELNINO forecast, stronger than 1997, the SST over 1+2 region over East Pacific will peak in August, expected to touch around 2.5C above normal.
Nino 3.4 and 4 will cool off from second half of July, this is very good news for SWM. As there were a forecast for July first week given by Selvan today morning that the first two week of July will see below normal rainfall, that is the time the NINO 4 region SST increasing 0.5C and cooling off from July 20th, hence the SWM rainfall will gain intensity after 15th July, till that time rain will be sporadic across the country.
http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/ensosst-3-4/
Exactly SWM will bounce back from July 3rd week onwards with flooded rains.
partha ji.. u r in full speed!!
yes sel, i want SST anomaly since 1951 to till date or for 1982 and 1987, could you please get me that?
yes .. i will try from my side.. everything is fine!!! but give importance to atmospheric factor too.. there is a direct relationship between sst and OLR(precipitation) in pacific ..above normal sst region gets good precipitation. but the indian ocean story is different, the variablity is too high here..
once i finish this analysis will do that too, i am trying that angle, but time constraint is too too much….
Avaru eppo break potaaru?
OMG massive numbers in Maharashtra. While tracking DD, we forgot Maharashtra. Some preliminary figures of rainfall ending 8.30 am on 24.06.2015
Lamaj (one of keenly watched places) – 475 mm
Tapola – 472 mm
My favorite Kitwade – 369 mm
Lonawala – 363 mm
Gavase – 337 mm
Shiragaon – 310 mm
Shiragaon now has got 1816 mm rainfall from June 1st. Apart from Cherrapunji and Mawsysnaram. Only Parsons valley has got better rainfall. Lamaj comes third at 1684 mm.
While we are waiting for 4mm, …..
VSKP ,cloudy,. Slightly humid.and warm.Was told that it had not rained here yesterday. Prior to that ,city had seen decent rains..
Omg kea y did u make tat featured it doesnt deserve..i just shared tat link
Yes even I saw that!
Agreed , If it was good news then it is okay, we must try and post as much as positive news to create confidence
Durajon. Irukattum irukattum..
Pradeep, post South Kerala rainfall figures if any..
many 100 mms today. Yesterday Ponmudi in Trivandrum Ghat got 170 mm.
lol. I never use force.
@ jon, pl don’t mistake me, the issue is not about your Featured comment
Flash…what’s happening over head-BOB?http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/satellite/Asia/India/Infraredcolor.htm
Friends,
I am giving a task to all of you, whoever gets me that data, i will give you a gift.
I want SST anomaly of West Pacific or Equatorial Pacific from 1950 to till date.
Take your time and get me that data, will get you excellent gift for sure.
So a mammoth analysis results can be expected from Partha ji …
Gokul,
Since you are near to my house, we can spend some time this weekend or the next weekend, you can allot the time.
Sure Partha ji …
So Paartha has decided that Gokul should roam around Indian Bank street calling n searching him..Maraka mudiyumaa…Btw Paatha..Good luck on your efforts..
Thala i forgot his flat name , sorry Partha ..
66c, Mahanya, 3rd cross ranga colony.
Ranga colony vaasigale..ooshaar ooshaar…Two guys are gonna burn the midnight oil ..Don’t have any suspicion on lights burning even after wee hours..
Chances of hitting The Hindu front page on Monday bright you mean – of course on weather
Yes yes, only weather talks. Obviously.
Second right. First left, first flat I guess..
Cool..Good direction sense …
ayyo, ithu featuredaaaaaaa????
ithula illathathu ethumae illa..
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl
Exactly , bigger than Pacific ocean ,
Here main issue is how do we know in advance about nino 4.0 cooling to know about SWM forecast in months advance?
will this data help in predicting our NEM in advance?
Hmm good question ❓
Must be a research only for that ..
that is still doubful i feel, NEM is a great phenomenon, human or science cannot predict it, we are here just trying with past occurrences.
frankly speaking no one did perfect analysis on NEM, rather most of them did on SWM, which is easier than predicting NEM.
You read and understand QBOONI rule to foresee NEM/SWM in advance Partha.
i will combine all these together and do it, but still not confident on NEM.
if NEM is not good this year, how can we survive? After SWM failure, we depend solely 95% on NEM rains
during ELNINO years both were opposite, if SWM fails then NEM will succeed, but let me go through on this subject completely.
If SWM fails then NEM won’t fail
its all there dude….u have to find the source
i am very weak in search mode, i tried it but could not find it.
PJ can get you this data in 5 min
Vela already given the sources
yes. i already have acess to
Climate indices
I am having the data of Rainfall since 1901 for Chennai and All over India.
Also ENSO, IOD and SOI and EQ SOI data since 1951.
Having QBO, NAO data since 1951.
Having KELVIN. ROSSBY and MJO data since 1951.
but only SST is pending, if have that, i can compile all this together and come out with something related to Indian Rainfall.
Sea Surface Temperature (SST)
Weekly OISST.v2 (1981-2010 base period) Niño 1+2
(0-10°South)(90°West-80°West) Niño 3 (5°North-5°South)(150°West-90°West)
Niño 4 (5°North-5°South) (160°East-150°West) Niño 3.4
(5°North-5°South)(170-120°West):
Data – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for
Monthly OISST.v2 (1981-2010 base period) Niño 1+2
(0-10°South)(90°West-80°West) Niño 3 (5°North-5°South)(150°West-90°West)
Niño 4 (5°North-5°South) (160°East-150°West) Niño 3.4
(5°North-5°South)(170-120°West):
Data – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst4.nino.mth.81-10.ascii
Monthly
ERSSTv4 (1981-2010 base period) Niño 1+2 (0-10°South)(90°West-80°West)
Niño 3 (5°North-5°South)(150°West-90°West) Niño 4 (5°North-5°South)
(160°East-150°West) Niño 3.4 (5°North-5°South)(170-120°West)
Data – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst4.nino.mth.81-10.ascii
Seasonal
ERSSTv4 (centered base periods) “Oceanic Niño Index” or the 3-month
running average in Niño 3.4 (5oNorth-5oSouth) (170-120oWest))
Data (Oceanic Nino Index) – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt (from 1950)
Seasonal ERSSTv4 (1981-2010 base period) 3-month running average in Niño 3.4 (5oNorth-5oSouth) (170-120oWest))
Data – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/3mth.nino34.81-10.ascii.txt
North Atlantic (5-20°North, 60-30°West), South Atlantic (0-20°South,
30°West-10°East), Global Tropics (10°South-10°North, 0-360):
Data – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.atl.indices
so record breaking NEM ahead?
Yes, record breaking on all ends!
MJSOI isvfor short range forecast. QBONI can be used for long range forecast:)
This analysis will take more time, but would like to finish it before NEM, but with help of of Mr GTS who has some scientific knowledge.
Ayyo Partha …mudiyala …
You mean SSK?
Perfect!, an analyst is joining hands with a scientist!
Unexplained NEM mysteries are going to be unraveled!
Yes when two persons joins three ideas come
When a third person joins confusion will come..
aha great credit you have given, Have read somewhere “appreciation is like an insurance policy you have to renew every now and then”
No Rami, by December 31st everything will be clear..
how come? Jan too NEM rains continue
I have seen showers and rains during Pongal
Kea, you very well know 31st 8.30am NEM officially ends..
I think by mid-january?
what happens if a depression passes Chennai after 8:31 am and all deficit is erased. NEM still deficit?
On paper and as per IMD yes.
why no severe TS in Chennai during June so for ? what is the reason ? any chance in the remaining days ?
good chance this evening for some areas
Hope so.
oh unbelievable
some areas is key. Might miss your area
First culprit ashobaa, then BOB depression formed very close. By the time this depression starts moving away then again rogue 97A over arabian. Luckily it moved in N/NE direction to give some rainfalls.
Valparai pto10,Chinnakalar 9, G Bazar 8
Devala,Uthagamandalam AWS 7
Valparai taluk office 5
Periyar 4cm
Parsons Vallecy 31, Pykara, Upper Bhavani 12, Avalanche, Mukurthy, Emeralad 10, Sholayar 9, Thunakadavu 7 cm
PJ , remember u saying that u’ve visited Parson’s valley ? Am i rite ?
No. i was in Avalanche.I stayed in Avalanche for 3 days. The three best days of my life. But our officials visit Parsons Valley a lot. They bring me so many photos
PJ, is this rainfall normal for Parsons valley? What is the SWM and annual normals?
its way above normal. Kea weather
Dear Pradeep, what is your occupation? those who can spend time in places like Avalanche and Parsons Valley on work must be really blessed
Oh..okay .
i’m happy my one comment has brought feelings in P.J
so keep posting regularly
normally i’m against doing controversy, but may be by mistake I had done that,
feel free shriraam….
lol. I am a very emotional, sentimental and loyal guy. U pat me and say…just do this for me. I will do it. If u force me i wont do it. No matter what is the outcome.
where & when i forced any one?
u did not…its my office thing…U are a nice person.
thank you
Can I pat you daily Pradeep?
Kerala lust pls..A gentle pat from my side..
But you always “bat” for ODM
Yes, I do that .I’m a big fan of Dash.
Last three years of june rainfallin chennai:
2014- 103mm
2013-34mm
2012-26mm
Note:
1) both 2012 and 2013 june failed too bad in city , but july , august takes figures to above normal…
2) 2014- 75% of rainfall occured on june 29 and june 30 itself
Note:2012 around June 29 there was a heavy deluge in Meena. Nunga missed out. Meena must have recorded 70-80 mm if i am not wrong..
yeah right….but it seems rainfall possible mostly after 25TH
You mean from tmrw onwards
If we see the general SWM trend in Chennai August has been the most fruitful month
Will rain stop a Banglawash from happening?
Oh no rain .
so banglawash confirmed
Yes confirmed if India don’t take them seriously again
Today in newspaper I saw that chances of rain in dhaka is 80%
Omg not even crossed 12 pm, now the temperature is 36.2 with increasing trend of 1.2c/hr
what happened to sea breeze? Vela mentioned an hour back
Sea breeze at 11.00 am. No chance
Not yet reached the coast
Hope your words come true sir by the way the surface level westerlies are too much strong in 700,850 hpa levels so how can we expect a slow moving intense ts
All days ahead are TS rainly days. So no worry about today.
On what basis?
On the basis of good ground heating
Along with mositure penetration
Yes sure sir
What’s the impact of IOD on NEM? We are now agreeing to the fact that Positive or Neutral IOD enhances SWM. Will the same assist NEM?
During swm positive iod may support other areas but not good for tamilnadu..
Yeah, but what will be the impact of Positive IOD on NEM?
Simple, it’ll be good
The IOD involves an aperiodic oscillation of sea-surface temperatures, between “positive”, “neutral” and “negative” phases. A positive phase sees greater-than-average sea-surface temperatures and greater precipitation in the western Indian Ocean region, with a corresponding cooling of waters in the eastern Indian Ocean—which tends to cause droughts in adjacent land areas of Indonesia and Australia. The negative phase of the IOD brings about the opposite conditions, with warmer water and greater precipitation in the eastern Indian Ocean, and cooler and drier conditions in the west.
Source : Wikipedia… does it mean we need a negative IOD for NEM success?
This talks about Indonesia and Australia (NE and S) but no views on Bay.
Refresh it
nothing guaranteed for nem.. elnino and positive iod favours south tn to large extent.
For NEM does it enhance the Easterly waves or something? I am not able to correlate the NEM success based on positive IOD theory.. Positive IOD will lead to warming of W. Indian Ocean and E. Indian Ocean will become Cool. How will it lead to NEM success?
Refresh
Ya, neutral or negative IOD will keep the eastern IO waters warm thereby enhancing activity in Bay.
That’s what.. then how come positive IOD will help bay
but positve iod still not on cards
60 % neutral iod.,40 %positive iod.. wheteher the elnino influenced our swm or not will b clear by july
Pakistan will get respite from severe heat wave in the form of rainfall, but it will be only for 2 to 3 days, then again temp. will raise
http://www.skymetweather.com/content/global-news/rain-in-pakistan-to-bring-brief-respite-from-heat/
Is it raining in bangladesh?
Anyone want data please mail me.
what is this?
i have data series for these indices.
do you have a backup or all is stored in your brain?
back up
Ehsan what data u want or what series u want. I have too much data. u cant do research for years.
Long live PJ
Onnumey purila PJ bhai 😦
Rao, GTS, Partha can use these data.
Enakkum thaan. Just enjoy as others post. climate cant be predicted with past data. thats my view. this June proved everyone wrong.
dont leak too much of ur sources let ppl search them,,
I know. It will be chaos.
Jon, u found many of them. Raijin is in a mission to find all my sources. But the truth is with so many data. I am not able to compile
OMG !!!
Its been raining since 7hrs in Surat.. Non-Stop…. Just had a talk with Brother
rain since 7 am or rain past 7 hours?
For past 7 hrs…
Surat 45 mm from 8.30 am till 11.30 am. From yesterday mid night it is 96 mm.
Sat image
super dude…..they need rains much
Ya.. Exactly
hope ahemdabad also getting rains too
Hot and windy. Low dark clouds moving from west to east.
Thanks Selvan & PJ for giving me the info, i can gift one of them, since Selvan gave first, i will give him that gift.
PJ i have taken the links provided by you, will bookmark it, it is very very useful.
Thanks for your effort. Will go through all these links provided by you.
But dont put unncessary analysis. It should be Pakka analysis.
Before Selva, Dataman has the source. So gift to me.
tis is the case of negative iod influence over TN during swm.. we can see the departure of rainfall in large positive anomalies(40.6) wich is the highest for any indian region.. the event favours tn highly but unfortunately it retards the swm in core areas but there were few exception seen in years like 2013. lanina ,negative iod result in surplus swm rainfall along india
how would be the 850 mb vector winds during Negative and Positive IOD during SWM and NEM.
I asked you long time before???
Partha, 2005,1996,2013 are all typical negative iod cases. There will b anomalous convergence in bay leading to cyclonic circulation near southern parts of bay ..
But with negative IOD we did see too many cyclones in BOB selva.. Most of the systems attained D, DD status but no cyclones
In 2013 , we had so many systems , named cyclones indeed ,
I will give u in 15 mins
Please put pics like this, then only we can learn easily… Its an ancient technic to attract
PJ,
Do you remember that i was saying there is a person in my company looks like you
I said this 2 years back, i just saw him and thought it was you and went closer to ask are you PJ, then someone calling him Selvan, he is IT manager here. I see him everyday. He is like you almost, if you both stand together no one can identify who is PJ.
can u take a snap of him.
How do you manage Work – data – blog – Weather Prediction – family – life balance… Sollumpothae muchu vaanguthu..
Did you saw viyabaari movie?
SJ Surya Cloning movie if i am not wrong??
Yes, may be true in case of dataman
Thats why stopped compiling for a while. Others who get the source has to take responsibility. And put them on daily basis. Not now and then.
Yes.. Its difficult to do it regularly.. There might be days where you won’t even have a single minute to visit blog due to personal, official reasons
i will try, i do not know how to ask.
Can we add Videos?????????
no, you can post only youtube links
Ohh… Okie
IRI Precipitation forecast for OND period.
http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/
Going by JAMSTEC, ECMWF and IRI forecast, south TN and SL will get very good rainfall coming NEM. NTN may get its quota from the direct hit of the system as IOD will return to neutral during ND period. It will enhance cyclogenesis in BOB.
cherrapunji 199, rajkot 167,surat 51.5,bhuj 35mm
18.8 mm received till date is least Nunga has received since 2000. 7 more days left. What can they achieve?
2009 – 23 mm
2004 – 29 mm
2003/05 – 31 mm
How come Ameen’s George Town recorded 68.8 mm for this month?
it is the rain forest region of Chennai
Lol
Can we have a dedicated section at right of the blog (below webcam probably) for everyday clippings of our forecast in DC?
that’s 365 clippings in a year
we can show up just today’s clipping. not the past ones..
Why srilanka not getting good Swm….elnino factor?
SL performs well in NEM and normally has a dormant SWM as far as i know.
Sri Lanka does not get good SWM.?? This is a news to me
Usually western side of srilanka gets rainfall during SWM and eastern side during NEM similar to us.
yes exactly
elnino suppress the swm for lanka but they get paid 200% more than actual amount by the same elnino during nem
Hmm then we can sneak some during nem, but s.tn will have deadly nem I think
Yes, Most Eastern and Southern provinces in SL will be battered by NEM like last year! But Colombo’s chances lie on good SWM.
Point
but ther is an advantage with lanina.. it is believed tat lanina extend the monsoon into january/feb for lanka.. 2010,2011 they got historic flood during jan,feb
Ya, it even rains in March in SL especially extreme South Areas. But whenever NSL gets rains, CTN and STN notch up massive numbers!
Yes I just cannot forget, on the way to airport heavy rain lashed , flooded and was just praying as to how to reach the airport – but super driver safely reached me. It does not rain like it pours from the sky whenever it rains in Sri Lanka
But one plus point for Sri Lanka – like Kerala virtually throughout the year they get rains. Only Chennai whether monsoon or not we never get rains – and if we ask – Bermuda, ridge, etc all answers will come
Fact
strong south westerly winds today as well. hope they pick the clouds by evg and dump rains to chennai