Deep Depression in North Arabian Sea makes landfall

The Deep Depression in North Arabian Sea crossed the south Gujarat coast spurring heavy rains all the way up to the ‘Wheat bowl of India (Punjab)’ and the neighboring states during the next 2-3 days. This system will also drum up the Monsoon March into Northwest India ahead of its normal dates.Heavy rains will continue across the west coast and East Indian plains.Rains will continue to stay away from most parts of TN.

Chennai will experience a partly cloudy day with maximum temperature touching 38 C with an uncomfortable night. Isolated Thunderstorms expected over certain parts towards late evening.

02. Meteosat524
Coimbatore will have a pleasant, breezy day with light showers. Maximum temperature would settle close to 31 C.

Madurai will remain sunny with scattered clouds hitting a Maximum temperature of 37C

1,169 thoughts on “Deep Depression in North Arabian Sea makes landfall

  1. This deep depression while moving inland is expected to interact with a western disturbance which is Marching towards Kashmir. Interaction of both likely to create massive rain ms in North Indian hence the monsoon onset happens over North India

    • Wait for Monsoon in Uttar Pradesh has finally come to an end, with Monsoon making onset over the state on Tuesday. It has also progressed further into more parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and covered entire Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand.
      Weather conditions are favourable for the advancement of Monsoon and may arrive over Delhi NCR in next 2 to 3 days.
      The rapid progress over Monsoon is due the several weather systems across the country, which has enhanced the rainfall activity both in terms of intensity and spread.

      Off-shore trough along the West Coast continues to persist, while the depression over north-east ArabianSea has intensified into deep depression and has slightly moved eastwards. Both the system will give heavy rainfall over Gujarat and Konkan and Goa.

      Mumbaikars will once again have to gear up for heavy rains with increasing intensity.

      On the eastern side, Low pressure area has weakened slightly and is presently over Jharkhand and adjoining Bihar and West Bengal region. In wake of this, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar and West Bengal will get moderate to heavy rain on Wednesday.

      Moving on to North India, a fresh Western Disturbance is affecting Jammu and Kashmir. The system is expected to give heavy to very heavy rain over hilly states of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and parts of Uttarakhand.

      A trough from this is also extending up to the centre of deep Depression, across a cyclonic circulation that can be seen over North Rajasthan and adjoining Punjab.

      Another trough is extending from this cyclonic circulation up to the Low pressure area. These multiple weather systems will be triggering moderate to heavy rain over Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh on Wednesday.

      Now talking about Northeast India, after witnessing lull for last few days, the intensity of rain over the region will pick up the pace once again, as moist southerly winds are blowing over the region.

    • QBO forecasted to become westerly phase (+ve, already started increasing), at the same time we know about ONI-index’s increasing trend. So both will be moving in proportional (same direction).

      So according SWM-QBOONI, SWM must end on normal note.

  2. I get a feeling that yesterday was not an active monsoon day in North Kerala and Coastal Karnataka! Figures today may suggest the same today.

    • Yes. That’s vagaries of weather. Elnino and Indian Monsoon mystery continues.Experts are divided in their opinion as there are many other factors which also decide our monsoon.

      • it is clear novak, there is an impact on SWM when ELNINO emerges, but what kind of ELNINO it is, that is very important.

        this is what i am saying, this time we have perfect ELNINO, hence the SST over West Pacific is reducing, it might come closer to normal in July, hence there wont any disturbance to the wind over Indian subcontinent, the same condition has prevailed in 1997, that is why India as a whole got good rainfall.

        SST over West Pacific is very very important for SWM during ELNINO years.

  3. ‘Sea-surface temperature hike may lead to weak monsoon’

    A five degree Celsius increase in sea-surface temperature (SST) over the last five years is causing increased precipitation over the sea and weakening the Southwest monsoon over the landmass, scientists from the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) said. “Unlike land, the sea surfaces retain the heat for a long time. Now, this phenomenon has led to little difference between land and sea temperature,” said B Venkateshwara Rao, an expert at the Centre for Atmospheric Sciences and Weather Modification Techniques.
    He said due to minimal difference between sea and land temperature, the moisture which earlier used to move over from the seas to the land, is stagnating over the sea.

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/hyderabad/Sea-surface-temperature-hike-may-lead-to-weak-monsoon/articleshow/47793869.cms

  4. Due to heavy rainfall and storm in Uttara Kannada district for the past five days, more than 500 power transmission poles
    have broken down, over 100 TCs have crashed and 40 mobile towers have stopped working, a report said on Tuesday.

    Telephone service in various rural areas of in Sirsi, Siddapur, Yellapur, Honnavar and Bhatkal taluks has crashed. Power supply has been disrupted in various areas of the district.

  5. More than 200 farmers, staff of various central and state government departments, representatives of NGOs, and academic
    institutions underwent a two-day training programme in ‘aquifer information and management on participatory approach’ at the Periyar University.

    The tier-III training programme was organised jointly by the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB), South Eastern Coastal Region, Chennai; Rajiv Gandhi National Ground Water Training and Research Institute, Raipur, in association with the Department of Geology of Periyar University here. http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/tp-tamilnadu/training-programme-in-aquifer-management/article7348494.ece

  6. It is clear, there is an impact on SWM when ELNINO emerges, but what kind of ELNINO it is, that is very important.

    This is what i am saying, this time we have perfect ELNINO, hence the SST over West Pacific is reducing, it might come closer to normal in July, hence there wont any disturbance to the wind over Indian subcontinent, the same condition has prevailed in 1997, that is why India as a whole got good rainfall.

    SST over West Pacific is very very important for SWM during ELNINO years.

    No more confusions, lets wait for IOD to become Positive, even though it is not strong, decreasing SST over West Pacific will allow SWM to become normal.

    There are no other factors influencing. It is clear.

    • Partha, All strong Elnino years like 1957, 1965, 1972, 1982, 1987, and 1997 are perfect Elnino years. But only 1957 & 1997 years recorded normal SWM rainfall despite +ve IOD. In 1965 IOD is -ve to neutral. How can you define SWM-deficits in all the violated perfect strong Elnino years like 1972, 1982 and 1987 with +ve IOD?

  7. Jun 24 2015 : The Times of India (Chennai)

    Amid good monsoon, El Nino gains strength

    New Delhi:

    

    

    Even as the monsoon’s great run continued and the season’s countrywide rainfall grew to 23% above normal on Tuesday , United States and Australian agencies reported a further strengthening of El Nino, the weather condition that is predicted to hit the monsoon’s performance in the coming months.Both updates, one from Columbia University and the other from Australia’s weather bureau, said El Nino was likely to grow stronger in the coming months.

    “There is now a 99% chance of El Nino for the June-August season,“ said the update from Columbia’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society . The Australian forecast was similar. It added that conditions in the Indian Ocean were expected to remain neutral in the coming months. A positive phase is said to favour the southwest monsoon. The twin updates come as a reminder that overall conditions continue to be adverse for good monsoon rain this year. These were the basis for the India Meteorological Department’s forecast of a deficient monsoon this year.

    However, as the plentiful rain in the past two weeks indicate, other fac tors could come to the aid of the mon soon from time to time. In the presen case, it was a travelling rain-bearing weather disturbance called the Mad den Julian Oscillation (MJO) that en ergized the monsoon and lead to its surge in central and southern parts of the country . With MJO’s effect likely to wear thin in the next three-four days, the monsoon is expected to enter a weak phase by next week, which is likely to continue into the first week of July .

    With a week to go, it’s already Mumbai’s wettest June

    Mumbai: The rain gods over Mumbai have made the weathermen go totally off the mark, again. There are seven days left for the month to end, but this is the wettest June the city has seen, with Santacruz recording 1,038.6mm of rain so far, higher than the previous all-time record of 1,037.1mm in 1971.

    The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has records going back to 1951, and in all these decades, the department has confirmed, it has not rained so much in Mumbai in June. This despite forecasts in May by both IMD and US experts of a monsoon that would have the shadow of El Nino hovering over it, thus affecting overall rainfall. As per IMD, Colaba has so far recorded 827.8mm and in Santacruz, the rainfall has been the highest for the month. The expected average rainfall for the season is 2,230mm for Colaba and 2,558mm for Santacruz. The record rainfall for June during the decade starting 2005 had earlier been 1,029.8mm, in 2013. TNN

  8. El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean to have no impact on monsoon rains: Expert

    The El Nino phenomenon, which has often disrupted rainfall in India, has intensified to a level that exceeds its record of 1997, but meteorologists draw comfort from the fact that the monsoon was normal that year, and other parameters in the Indian Ocean may boost the rainfall over India in July. The Australian weather office said on Tuesday the dreaded El Nino is strengthening further and would continue in the second-half of the year.

    “The 2015 El Nino continues to strengthen. Central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature indices are more than 1°C above average for the sixth consecutive week,” said the weather bureau, which added models indicate further consolidation is likely.

    It also said three out of five international models suggested a rain-boosting phenomenon called the Indian Ocean Dipole is turning positive. IOD refers to differences in temperature between the western and eastern part of the Indian Ocean. Weather scientists said a similar development helped neutralise the impact of El Nino in its record year 1997-98. It also strengthened the monsoon in 2006.

    DS Pai, head of long-range forecasting, India Meteorological Department, said the IOD was currently neutral in the positive side.”As per our forecast, the current warm neutral IOD conditions over Indian Ocean are likely to continue throughout the summer and till the end of the year. A positive IOD in September-November season will make no impact on the monsoon rains,” he said.

    He said the moderate El Nino conditions currently prevailing are likely to reach moderate to strong level during the monsoon season and continue till early part of the next year.

    International forecasters have been almost unanimous in issuing warnings that El Nino, associated with warmer temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, will disrupt global rainfall patterns, which can parch parts of Asia and Australia, and trigger storms and floods in other regions.

    India’s worst drought in 37 years in 2009 took place in an El Nino year. Food prices shot up by an annual 20%, leading to persistently high inflation for years. This year, the Met has forecast a 12% deficiency in the monsoon but private forecaster Skymet has sharply differed and predicted normal rainfall in the June-September season. June has proved both of them wrong as nobody predicted rainfall to be more than 20% in excess as has been the case so far.

  9. Parsons Valley does a Cherrapunji, gets around 1400 mm (Chennai’s Annual Rainfall) in just 4 days
    ===========================================
    The offshore trough at mean sea level from south Gujarat coast to north Kerala coast persists. This is one of the heaviest rainfall since the days i can recollect.

    Parsons Valley last 4 days rainfall
    ————————-
    20.06.2015 – 342 mm
    21.06.2015 – 230 mm
    22.06.2015 – 398 mm
    23.06.2015 – 392 mm
    ================
    1362 mm in 4 days
    ================

    Avalanche last 4 days rainfall
    ————————-
    20.06.2015 – 225 mm
    21.06.2015 – 182 mm
    22.06.2015 – 324 mm
    23.06.2015 – 245 mm
    ================
    976 mm in 4 days
    ================

    Tamil Nadu Rainfall in mm ending 8.30 am on 23.06.2015
    ========================

    Parsons Valley – 392
    Avalanche – 245
    Siruvani – 212
    Devala – 149
    Adivaram – 149
    Gudalur Bazar – 148
    Emerald – 127
    Pykara – 126
    Upper Bhavani – 120
    Periyar – 118
    Glenmorgan – 115
    Valparai PTO – 93
    Sandyanallah – 93
    Lower Nirar – 80
    Valparai PAP – 73
    Chinnakallar – 76
    Chincona – 67
    Valparai Taluk Office – 67
    Sholayar – 60
    Naduvattam – 56
    Upper Kodayar – 51
    Uthagamandalam – 47
    Ketti – 40
    Karupandhi – 40

    Kea Weather – http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1354

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

  10. omg. Parsons Valley 4th 300 mm rainfall in 5 days. Today 312 mm. Avalanche 105 mm and Upper Bhavani 119 mm.

  11. . This para suggests very good rainfall for chennai for both swm and nem ////
    “As per our forecast, the current warm neutral IOD conditions over
    Indian Ocean are likely to continue throughout the summer and till the
    end of the year. A positive IOD in September-November season will make
    no impact on the monsoon rains,” he said.

  12. Rami,

    If you see 1982 and 87, both had positive iod and elnino, hence SWM failed in both the years. The same condition continued until Oct-Dec in both the year, but NEM failed in 1982 and successful in 1987.

    Only difference is IOD became Neutral in October 1982, but in 1987 it was continuing in Positive mode.

    See the OLR animation of both year NEM.

    Based on the first OLR, i could observe that there were couple of cyclones formed in November 1987, which would have made the NEM normal that year, but the cyclones were absent in 1982.

    http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showarchivedhoriz.php?year=1982&month=10&day=1&year2=1982&month2=12&day2=31

    http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showarchivedhoriz.php?year=1987&month=10&day=1&year2=1987&month2=12&day2=31

  13. Flash…

    SWM- season’s QBOONI rule:
    When QBO is in decreasing trend with respect to ONI index’s increasing trend (means if both moving in opposite directions/inversely proportional) during SWM-season, then SWM will record less than normal and vice-versa.

    NEM-season’s QBOONI rule:
    Quite opposite for NEM rains when compared to SWM’s QBOONI.
    Means if QBO is in decreasing trend with respect to ONI index’s increasing trend (means if both moving in opposite directions/inversely proportional) during NEM-season, then NEM will be normal/excess and vice-versa.

    Note:
    1. QBOONI rule utilizes only 2 parameters, QBO & ONI indexes (both can foreseen in accurate in advance).

    2. With this powerful QBOONI rule, one can ignore all parameters like MJO, SOI, IOD, NAO, AO, etc. Thus lot of confusion can be avoided. Under favorable QBOONI rule, dynamics will orient in such way to give bountiful rains during NEM/SWM seasons.

    3. We can get clear equation in Elnino/Lanina years. But ENSO-neutral years also can get clear cut correlation most of the times.

    • Rao sir.. Just now started to learn about MJO, SOI, IOD etc.. U are asking to ignore.. Enna kodumai raoji!!

      • This QBOONI can be used for long range seasonal forecast. Carry your learning skills about MJO, SOI, IOD, etc can be used to predict daily/weekly rainfall forecasts.

  14. Pillur dam inflow – 14400 cusecs. The dam is full and excess water is let into Bhavani Sagar. the 2nd biggest dam in TN.

  15. Prehistoric weather shines light on today’s climate

    In a study published last month in the journalGeophysical Research Letters, Oster and a group of scientists reported their findings from the Mawmluh cave they examined in India, home to the wettest place on Earth —Meghalaya, a state in the northeastern part of the country.

    Based on minerals still in the ground from that time period, researchers discovered a reduced amount of rainfall in India during monsoons when sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean were warmer. These findings jibe with more recent historical records. Warmer ocean temperatures in the Pacific are consistent with El Nino events, which tend to coincide with droughts in central India.

    “Now that we have shown that the Mawmluh cave record agrees with the instrumental record for the last 50 years, we hope to use it to investigate relationships between the Indian monsoon and El Niño during prehistoric times such as the Holocene,” Oster said.

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/06/06/kostigen-prehistoric-weather/28480345/

  16. Decent rains all over

    Mahabaleshwar – 270 mm
    Cherrapunji – 199 mm
    Rajkot – 167 mm
    Agumbae – 94 mm
    Madikeri – 79 mm

  17. Latest ELNINO forecast, stronger than 1997, the SST over 1+2 region over East Pacific will peak in August, expected to touch around 2.5C above normal.

    Nino 3.4 and 4 will cool off from second half of July, this is very good news for SWM. As there were a forecast for July first week given by Selvan today morning that the first two week of July will see below normal rainfall, that is the time the NINO 4 region SST increasing 0.5C and cooling off from July 20th, hence the SWM rainfall will gain intensity after 15th July, till that time rain will be sporadic across the country.

    http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/ensosst-3-4/

  18. OMG massive numbers in Maharashtra. While tracking DD, we forgot Maharashtra. Some preliminary figures of rainfall ending 8.30 am on 24.06.2015

    Lamaj (one of keenly watched places) – 475 mm
    Tapola – 472 mm
    My favorite Kitwade – 369 mm
    Lonawala – 363 mm
    Gavase – 337 mm
    Shiragaon – 310 mm

    Shiragaon now has got 1816 mm rainfall from June 1st. Apart from Cherrapunji and Mawsysnaram. Only Parsons valley has got better rainfall. Lamaj comes third at 1684 mm.

  19. VSKP ,cloudy,. Slightly humid.and warm.Was told that it had not rained here yesterday. Prior to that ,city had seen decent rains..

  20. Friends,

    I am giving a task to all of you, whoever gets me that data, i will give you a gift.

    I want SST anomaly of West Pacific or Equatorial Pacific from 1950 to till date.
    Take your time and get me that data, will get you excellent gift for sure.

  21. I am having the data of Rainfall since 1901 for Chennai and All over India.
    Also ENSO, IOD and SOI and EQ SOI data since 1951.
    Having QBO, NAO data since 1951.
    Having KELVIN. ROSSBY and MJO data since 1951.

    but only SST is pending, if have that, i can compile all this together and come out with something related to Indian Rainfall.

  22. Sea Surface Temperature (SST)

    Weekly OISST.v2 (1981-2010 base period) Niño 1+2
    (0-10°South)(90°West-80°West) Niño 3 (5°North-5°South)(150°West-90°West)
    Niño 4 (5°North-5°South) (160°East-150°West) Niño 3.4
    (5°North-5°South)(170-120°West):

    Data – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

    Monthly OISST.v2 (1981-2010 base period) Niño 1+2
    (0-10°South)(90°West-80°West) Niño 3 (5°North-5°South)(150°West-90°West)
    Niño 4 (5°North-5°South) (160°East-150°West) Niño 3.4
    (5°North-5°South)(170-120°West):

    Data – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst4.nino.mth.81-10.ascii

    Monthly
    ERSSTv4 (1981-2010 base period) Niño 1+2 (0-10°South)(90°West-80°West)
    Niño 3 (5°North-5°South)(150°West-90°West) Niño 4 (5°North-5°South)
    (160°East-150°West) Niño 3.4 (5°North-5°South)(170-120°West)

    Data – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst4.nino.mth.81-10.ascii

    Seasonal
    ERSSTv4 (centered base periods) “Oceanic Niño Index” or the 3-month
    running average in Niño 3.4 (5oNorth-5oSouth) (170-120oWest))

    Data (Oceanic Nino Index) – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt (from 1950)

    Seasonal ERSSTv4 (1981-2010 base period) 3-month running average in Niño 3.4 (5oNorth-5oSouth) (170-120oWest))

    Data – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/3mth.nino34.81-10.ascii.txt

    North Atlantic (5-20°North, 60-30°West), South Atlantic (0-20°South,
    30°West-10°East), Global Tropics (10°South-10°North, 0-360):

    Data – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.atl.indices

  23. why no severe TS in Chennai during June so for ? what is the reason ? any chance in the remaining days ?

  24. Last three years of june rainfallin chennai:
    2014- 103mm
    2013-34mm
    2012-26mm
    Note:
    1) both 2012 and 2013 june failed too bad in city , but july , august takes figures to above normal…
    2) 2014- 75% of rainfall occured on june 29 and june 30 itself

  25. Hope your words come true sir by the way the surface level westerlies are too much strong in 700,850 hpa levels so how can we expect a slow moving intense ts

  26. What’s the impact of IOD on NEM? We are now agreeing to the fact that Positive or Neutral IOD enhances SWM. Will the same assist NEM?

      • The IOD involves an aperiodic oscillation of sea-surface temperatures, between “positive”, “neutral” and “negative” phases. A positive phase sees greater-than-average sea-surface temperatures and greater precipitation in the western Indian Ocean region, with a corresponding cooling of waters in the eastern Indian Ocean—which tends to cause droughts in adjacent land areas of Indonesia and Australia. The negative phase of the IOD brings about the opposite conditions, with warmer water and greater precipitation in the eastern Indian Ocean, and cooler and drier conditions in the west.

        Source : Wikipedia… does it mean we need a negative IOD for NEM success?

      • For NEM does it enhance the Easterly waves or something? I am not able to correlate the NEM success based on positive IOD theory.. Positive IOD will lead to warming of W. Indian Ocean and E. Indian Ocean will become Cool. How will it lead to NEM success?

      • Ya, neutral or negative IOD will keep the eastern IO waters warm thereby enhancing activity in Bay.

      • 60 % neutral iod.,40 %positive iod.. wheteher the elnino influenced our swm or not will b clear by july

  27. Thanks Selvan & PJ for giving me the info, i can gift one of them, since Selvan gave first, i will give him that gift.

    PJ i have taken the links provided by you, will bookmark it, it is very very useful.
    Thanks for your effort. Will go through all these links provided by you.

  28. tis is the case of negative iod influence over TN during swm.. we can see the departure of rainfall in large positive anomalies(40.6) wich is the highest for any indian region.. the event favours tn highly but unfortunately it retards the swm in core areas but there were few exception seen in years like 2013. lanina ,negative iod result in surplus swm rainfall along india

  29. PJ,

    Do you remember that i was saying there is a person in my company looks like you
    I said this 2 years back, i just saw him and thought it was you and went closer to ask are you PJ, then someone calling him Selvan, he is IT manager here. I see him everyday. He is like you almost, if you both stand together no one can identify who is PJ.

    • Going by JAMSTEC, ECMWF and IRI forecast, south TN and SL will get very good rainfall coming NEM. NTN may get its quota from the direct hit of the system as IOD will return to neutral during ND period. It will enhance cyclogenesis in BOB.

  30. 18.8 mm received till date is least Nunga has received since 2000. 7 more days left. What can they achieve?
    2009 – 23 mm
    2004 – 29 mm
    2003/05 – 31 mm

  31. Can we have a dedicated section at right of the blog (below webcam probably) for everyday clippings of our forecast in DC?

    • elnino suppress the swm for lanka but they get paid 200% more than actual amount by the same elnino during nem

      • Yes, Most Eastern and Southern provinces in SL will be battered by NEM like last year! But Colombo’s chances lie on good SWM.

      • but ther is an advantage with lanina.. it is believed tat lanina extend the monsoon into january/feb for lanka.. 2010,2011 they got historic flood during jan,feb

      • Ya, it even rains in March in SL especially extreme South Areas. But whenever NSL gets rains, CTN and STN notch up massive numbers!

      • Yes I just cannot forget, on the way to airport heavy rain lashed , flooded and was just praying as to how to reach the airport – but super driver safely reached me. It does not rain like it pours from the sky whenever it rains in Sri Lanka

    • But one plus point for Sri Lanka – like Kerala virtually throughout the year they get rains. Only Chennai whether monsoon or not we never get rains – and if we ask – Bermuda, ridge, etc all answers will come

  32. strong south westerly winds today as well. hope they pick the clouds by evg and dump rains to chennai

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