Dry Weather to prevail in the plains of TN

The Depression over Bay Of Bengal having made landfall in Odisha, will move further inland and merge with the monsoon axis thereby pushing the onset of monsoon over Chhattisgarh, MP, Jharkhand and West Bengal in the coming days.
meteosat
Chennai can say bye to pleasant days with the max temperatures around 36-38 C. Nights will be humid, warm & very uncomfortable.

898 thoughts on “Dry Weather to prevail in the plains of TN

  1. Second phase of summer expected to begin in most parts of TN especially Central and South TN. Temperatures expected to hit 38C even in Chennai. Now, our only hope is pinned on VS TS in the evening.

  2. Flash…nino-turned to elnino-modoki sub-variant in a classical elnino mode when compared to previous week according to BOM-SSTs.

  3. The low shear area which was moving west from land has moved over gujarat and its adjoining sea areas.Upper level conditions are improving so clouds will get better organized over the center.

  4. Thunderstorms which are moving as inflow towards the system is already affecting the parts of gujarat.

  5. Frustrating to see floods in tg and nap all the time the belt under ongole to pondy from rayalaseema to north tn definitely needs one ..

  6. Monsoon races to Kashmir from Kanyakumari: Equatorial system of clouds & conditions in Indian Ocean may back plentiful rains
    Rainfall in June is almost certain to be significantly more than normal, going by predictions of weather scientists from Australia to the US, giving a flying start to the four-month season
    The floundering monsoon has been catalysed by an equatorial system of clouds and disturbances that traverses the globe. The system, called Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), has strengthened rain-bearing clouds along its path and given the country 33 per cent surplus rain on Saturday and a drenching 88 per cent surplus on Sunday. “MJO is definitely influencing the southwest monsoon,” said Laxman Singh Rathore, director-general of meteorology, India Meteorological Department.
    Meteorologists at the weather office also said the neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — a term that refers to differences in surface temperature in different parts of the Indian Ocean — was also strengthening the monsoon. “Parameters are quite close to being positive which generally makes for a good monsoon,” said a meteorologist.

    Read more at:

    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/47761464.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

  7. Now partly cloudy skies all over AP and Telangana….rains in few places..
    seems LPA effect is going down.
    Till 21 june
    Entire Telangana rains are 140 percent excess
    with Khammam and warangal topping with 350 percent excess
    and AP is with 100 percent excess rain with east godavari topping with 300 percent excess

  8. The US Climate Prediction Centre is of the view that the existing depression over Sambalpur would drive monsoon easterlies in a west-northwest direction, pushing rain into north-west India.
    The Arabian Sea system will dump heavy rain over Gujarat and south-west Rajasthan, and may be guided to move across the border.
    In this manner, the monsoon may manage to cover the entire Indian landmass over the next eight days.

    • Yes….monsoon soon covers whole country in normal…But seems a break period is ahead for south India excluding western ghats kerala for few days which is common during june end…

  9. Shiragaon after recording 350 mm yesterday has recorded 322 mm today.

    Here are some of the preliminary top rainfall in maharashtra ending 8.30 am on 22.06.2015

    Bamnoli – 411 mm
    Ambavali – 395 mm
    Bhutonde – 340 mm
    Jor – 322 mm
    Shirgaon – 322 mm
    Ghisar – 321 mm
    Sonat – 305 mm

  10. Almost Every state in India has received excess rainfall! it’s high time kerala and TN starts to get some good rains before we end up with deficient rainfall.

  11. Heavy rain in kodugu and talacavery. Both KRS and Kabini receiving 8000 cue secs of water-Courtesy Kalaignar TV

  12. IOD Neutral, MJO likely to strengthen in Phase 5.

    Positive SST anomaly over West Indian Ocean has reduced drastically in the past one week. This region had nearly 1.5C above normal temp, now it has come below 1C and in some places the SST is normal, hence this is why the MJO strengthening over Phase 5 and not returning to Phase 1 or 2 over Indian Ocean. I have posted the link of MJO forecast in below comment.

    If this trend continued in IOD, then there is every chance that TN will get good rainfall during this SWM season.

    Lets wait for another 20 days up to 15th July to come to a conclusion on LRF given by Skymet and IMD.

      • Hi, I work in Bangalore. I work in an MNC in Bangalore and I volunteer for my company by working with an NGO which is engaged in restoration of degraded forests. Thanks..
        Please visit http://www.junglescapes.org
        As a lead volunteer I visit the region at least once a month, and plan reforestation of degraded forests near Bandipur. if it rains heavily in Ooty and Kotagiri the belt that I work in gets rains. This pocket in Bandipur gets more rains from summer showers and NEM compared to SWM thanks to rain shadow effect of Nilgiris

  13. Today Parsons Valley gets 398 mm Avalanche gets 324 mm

    Parsons Valley last 3 days rainfall

    20.06.2015 – 342 mm
    21.06.2015 – 230 mm
    22.06.2015 – 398 mm
    ================

    970 mm in 3 days
    ================

    Avalanche last 3 days rainfall

    20.06.2015 – 225 mm
    21.06.2015 – 182 mm
    22.06.2015 – 324 mm
    ================
    731 mm in 3 days
    ================

    • Wow.. thanks.. Avalanche catchment eventually makes its way to Bhavani via Kundah, river Bhavani joins Bhavani Sagar dam., while Parsons Valley gets linked to watersheds that feed Pykara and end up in Moyar, which joins at Bhavani Sagar, These two catchments are barely 15 to 20 KM apart, but they drain South and North of Nilgiri ranges respectively

      • yes,bhavani sagar dam gets waters from two rivers namely moyar and bhavani, north and south of nilgiris. It was a wonderful sight of bhavani sagar dam from kodanadu view point which I enjoyed seeing one year back.

  14. Dramatic Late Night Rescue by Navy Chopper After Distress Signals From Merchant Ship Off Mumbai Coast-ndtv

  15. actually it is expected to touch 1 to 1.5 of amplitude in Phase 5, once it crossed Phase 5 and enter Phase 6, it should strengthen for sure in Phase 6, then the SST will get reduced in Phase 5 towards normal, hence it is good for Bay Branch of SWM, but IOD has to increase, that is very important

  16. Guys how many of you been to kodanadu view point near kotagiri in nilgiris district to see the bhavani sagar dam, mysore plateau and river moyar. I recommend everyone to go to this place if you are planning ooty trip.

  17. JTWC upgrades to Medium on the ARB system

    THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 68.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 67.7E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERYDEPICTS DEEPENED CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A DEVELOPING LLCC. A 220312Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WEST OF THE LLCC. A 220142Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWS A 25 TO 30 KNOT CIRCULATION CENTER WITH STRONGER (UP TO GALE FORCE) WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AREESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 990 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVED LLCC ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

  18. Rainfall ending 8.30am Today

    Periyar (Theni Dist)

    14

    Valparai pto (Coimbatore Dist)

    10

    Uthagamandalam AWS (Nilgiris Dist)

    9

    Valparai taluk office (Coimbatore Dist)

    8

    • its not that I am on the negative side when rain is predicted. I always keep my expectations low. In the end you will not be disappointed.

  19. Temperature Today in Tamilnadu & Puducherry (21.06.2015)

    High Min Temperature
    Tondi – 28

    Tondi
    38.6
    28
    Adirampatnam
    38.4
    27.7
    Chennai Nungambakkam
    38
    27.7
    Thoothukudi
    38
    27
    Nagapattinam
    37.8
    26.2
    Chennai Meenambakkam
    37.6
    26.8
    Puducherry
    37.4

    Cuddalore
    37.2
    26.6
    Karaikal
    36.9
    25.9
    Madurai
    36.6
    27.2
    Trichy
    36.6
    26.4
    Parangipettai
    36.5
    27.2
    Palyamkottai
    36.4
    26.4
    Karur Paramathi
    34.5
    25.5
    Salem
    33.5
    25.5
    Pamban
    33.2
    27.7
    Vellore
    32.6
    27.7
    Tirupathur
    32.2
    23.2
    Dharmapuri
    31.8
    24
    Coimbatore
    31.5
    23.4
    Kanyakumari
    30.3
    24.2

    HILL STATIONS
    Valparai
    22
    18.5
    Coonoor
    20
    15
    Kodaikanal
    14.4
    11.7

      • I compiled Min Temp till yesterday Morning and Max temp of Yesterday.
        Just now imd updated the Obs Data i compiled through by seeing both. IMD hasn’t updated 1730 update Yesterday.

      • what i was trying to say, just copy the link and if you found anything different or you have observed something, by copying the link and you can give your opinion on those temp data. If you start to do that, you will learn lots of things from weather, your opinion on everything you see is very important.

      • What’s bothering you if he post the full data? I found it very useful. If you don’t want to see it just close your eyes.

  20. Few Factors about northeastmonsoon…….
    In late May, when the winds pick up moisture from the Indian Ocean and hit the South Asia, it is known as Southwest Monsoon or summer monsoon. However, when September arrives, a reversal happens in the wind direction. As the sun goes down south, the air becomes colder over North India and a high pressure area forms. Under its influence, the wind direction changes to Northeasterly from Southwesterly during the end of September and early October.

    The Relationship between ENSO/IOD and NEM

    The Northeast Monsoon (NEM) or winter monsoon affects South India especially Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh and gives them good rain in the winter, it also affects Sri Lanka. However, there are a few factors which affect NEM.

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) affects the NEM the most. The El Niño southern oscillation has two phases; one is El Niño (Warm phase) and the other one La Nina (Cool phase). The El Niño (Warm Phase) normally helps the NEM by increasing the easterlies and its moisture, while on the other hand, the La Nina (Cool phase) normally retards NEM. Observations have also showed that during El Niño years the Northeast Monsoon (NEM) was normal to above normal i.e. the 2006 NEM was above normal due to El Niño. During La Nina years, the NEM was below normal .i.e. the 2003 NEM was deficient and it was a drought year.

    Current scenario and forecast
    The winter monsoon is normally unpredictable because it is dependent mainly on low pressure areas, troughs, tropical waves, depressions, cyclones, MJO waves, Rossby waves, Kelvin waves and etc. (Climate variability). However, there are some ways in which NEM can be predicted using the following parameters:
    A. Spring rainfall
    During spring (February-March-April) even if one of the Southern states (Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Kerala) receives above average rain, NEM would be more than average. However, easterlies in April could adversely affect NEM.

    • Thanks for the input, i would like to go through the final para more number of times, they say if the easterlies remains till April then we will get poor NEM, this time we got easterlies till April, lets see whether it affects NEM 2015.

      Also ELNINO is not only parameter which helps NEM, it also requires the support of Positive IOD. During this duo’s occurrence the success rate is almost 100%, but if IOD is neutral during ELNINO the chances are 50-50.

      • but same time they mentioning if above rainfall in spring,then nem would be excess…………without easterlies how spring rainfall could be above normall

  21. Our ancestors had the common sense not to build on water, Mr. Ghosh, who was in town to launch the last instalment of his Ibis trilogy, Flood of Fire, told The Hinduin an interview.
    A resident of New York, Mr. Ghosh was witness to the widespread destruction caused by super storm Sandy along the city coast. “What we need [in Kerala] is a tactical withdrawal policy,” he says. If the US government is facilitating, even paying people to withdraw from the coast in phases, Kerala with its good network of roads should have an evacuation plan for such a contingency. “It’s time they started thinking about such a plan.”

  22. Author Amitav Ghosh is no doomsayer, but he finds the imminence of a disaster caused by climate change disconcerting.
    Even more worrisome for him is the absence of awareness about its seriousness and the paucity of measures to quickly evacuate people in case of something like a cyclonic storm on the west coast.
    The author, born in West Bengal, says if the Bay of Bengal was known for cyclones in the past, over the last 10 years, the western coast has been generating increasing cyclonic activity.
    Kochi, with its coast and lagoon topography, makes for an interesting case. The Kochi of yore was on the inland side of the natural harbour.
    It was the British who started constructing directly on the coast. When you have sea-level rise, as it’s rising now, at an alarming rate, what we also have going with it is that the Arabian Sea has been warming at a rate faster than the other parts of the ocean.
    Thus the Arabian Sea, which never had cyclones in the past, began generating cyclones in the last 10 years. The way cyclones cause destruction is through storm surfs. Even a minor surge hitting Kochi could badly damage it, as you have more and more construction along the coastline.

  23. Kerala gets very good rainfall in the past 24 hours after a dull phase of June so far.

    From now on Kerala will get very good rainfall, this is likely to continue for next 4 days. The increase in rainfall over Kerala was due to strengthening of Somalia current.

    If you look at the following link of surface winds you will understand.

    So far the CEW was crossing Equator near Central Equatorial Indian Ocean and the winds were running through Bay, but today if you see that the wind takes big divertion and reaches West Equatorial Indian Ocean and hitting somalia and coming to south arabian sea and hitting Kerala, this was missing earlier, this is why only North KTK coast to North Maharashtra Coast was getting rainfall which is due to LOW formed over NE Arabian Sea and the moisture was weak over Kerala.

    Last Week
    http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/06/18/0600Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-279.15,11.76,510

    Today
    http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-279.15,11.76,510

  24. If the rainfall is above normal in June, the monsoon turns out to be above normal during 65 per cent of such years, shows an analysis of rainfall data since 1900. is it true, what about elnino years, is there any study done?

  25. Maharashtra enjoying very good rains for the past 3 days…Ratnagiri and Satara district stations tops in the list… Following is the list of stations that have recorded over 400mm in last 72 hours ending 8:30 AM today..Hope PJ correct mistake in the list if any since he might have more sources and moreover i have not added Mumbai lakes and Colaba and Santacruz

    Shirgaon (Ratnagiri) – 807
    Lamaj (Satara) – 781
    Aabloli (Ratnagiri) – 634
    Margtamhane (Ratnagiri) – 620
    Mahabaleshwar (Satara) – 610
    Dapoli (Ratnagiri) – 609
    Mandangad (Ratnagiri) – 590
    Devhare (Ratnagiri) – 585
    Ambavali (Ratnagiri) – 580
    Anjarla (Ratnagiri) – 568
    Asurde (Ratnagiri) – 568
    Bamnoli (Satara) – 566
    Chiplun (Ratnagiri) – 563
    Lanja (Ratnagiri) – 562
    Devale (Ratnagiri) – 553
    Dabhol (Ratnagiri) – 550
    Talwali (Ratnagiri) – 539
    Rampur (Ratnagiri) – 533
    Wahal (Ratnagiri) – 525
    Kulwandi (Ratnagiri) – 524
    Shirshi (Ratnagiri) – 519
    Tapola (Satara) – 516
    Khed (Ratnagiri) – 515
    Dhamnand (Ratnagiri) – 510
    Helwak (Satara) – 508
    Kondgaon (Ratnagiri) – 506
    Mhapral (Ratnagiri) – 505
    Sawarde (Ratnagiri) – 497
    Kadwai (Ratnagiri) – 492
    Dabhil (Ratnagiri) – 480
    Kherdi (Ratnagiri) – 478
    Burondi (Ratnagiri) – 460
    Patpanhale (Ratnagiri) – 460
    Vilvade (Ratnagiri) – 458
    Tala (Raigadh) – 450
    Khamgaon (Raigadh) – 445
    Velvi (Ratnagiri) – 439
    Palgad (Ratnagiri) – 436
    Mendha (Raigadh) – 434
    Hedvi (Ratnagiri) – 429
    Owale (Raigadh) – 429
    Bharne (Ratnagiri) – 427
    Goregaon (Raigadh) – 426
    Angawali (Ratnagiri) – 420
    Wakavali (Ratnagiri) – 420
    Gaganbawda (Kolhapur) – 418
    Mahad (Raigadh) – 413
    Here (Kolhapur) – 411
    Aatone (Raigadh) – 406

  26. Strengthening of Somalia Jet is very very important for Kerala Rains during SWM, this is the time that Mascarene highs will be in a right position over south indian ocean, it produces more north westerly winds below equator and pushes across to Somalia, after hitting somalia, it turns back to west coast of india, hence the health of somali current is very much important, Kerala depends on this current only.

    Also the heat low over gulf which pushes the winds towards west coast at around 15 to 20 N, which will bring more rain to west coast from Goa to Maharashtra coast. This event was happened four to five days back, as Mumbai got heavy rains due to this, this heat low has initiated a LOW over NE Arabian Sea.

    Also the trough position is rightly placed over Chhattisgarh, since the Somalian current has strengthened, it has pushed the Depression over Odisha to NW direction and into chattisgarh. Compare and see both images given below.

    More data in the following article.

    http://www.cherrapunjee.com/monsoon-magic/somali-jet-stream-current-and-tropical-jet-streams/

    http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-277.50,0.00,469

    • Sri,
      You are a bit rough in conveying to Deepak(I did the same to you and u are annoyed). You can’t go rude on someone who hasn’t done anything wrong. Remember that you are just another member and not moderator who will take care of the issue

      • I was never rude in this blog, first you collect the details, also deepak was well known to me, it was just a guidance to him, don’t be like a master, i know and blog knows how i approach to others.

        Without knowing the details you cannot jump into, also i gave him suggestion on how he can learn things, see that comment and then realise what has happened.

      • Dude even a kid can recognize you were being rude. I don’t give a flying f if Deepak is your Friend and he was ok with it. If I find it wrong I say it after all this blog is common to everyone. Am not a master of this blog or weather(or even to you ) but I know ‘how to treat people and be bold’.

      • Why are you making this issue so serious? Two days backbecause of you Kiran was so sad that he almost left the blog that is not wrong ?

      • That’s was a miscommunication on my part. This I meant what I said. I don’t care if he is a senior blogger.. I say if I find it objectionable.

  27. Windy Chennai, shows monsoon is active in the W-ghats with heavy rains. Some will spill over to Chennai.

  28. pathasri…..just cool…why u r replying to that unwanted
    comments…..We all know about u …no need to explain for unwanted
    bloggers

  29. Achu what I said to Kiran was a miscommunication from my part and I apologized to Kiran..ask sunspot. Just because I was taken wrong once..doesn’t mean That am wrong all time.

      • Indian team always known to give life to Players who are on debut, also to players who are low in form, if one gone through the player’s history who were made debut against India, one will come to know, we have just maintained the tradition against Bangladesh also, there is nothing new in it

  30. Rami,

    After strengthening into a weak cyclone it interacts with upper level, hence it would move initially westwards as per 300 HPA winds.

    Once it reaches North Central Arabian Sea it starts weakening due to less moisture, hence after weakening it disconnects the interaction with upper 200 HPA levels, then it starts to move as per Mid Level or Lower Level steering winds, then it will move NNE direction towards Guj-Pak border.

    700 HPA
    http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/All_times.php?Level=700&CDate=2015-06-22&Id=1&CType=Wind-Forecast&Model=NGFS-Outputs

    200 HPA
    http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/All_times.php?Level=200&CDate=2015-06-22&Id=1&CType=Wind-Forecast&Model=NGFS-Outputs

    • Looks like clouds are not so intense along west-coast, then how these areas managing to get such a huge rainfalls?

    • IOD will increase once MJO peaks near west-pacific-date line. SOI will start increasing once MJO trying to exit the west pacific-dateline.

      • Yes, with LPA formation again at west-central BOB, which activates SWM. LPA always forms close to WC-BOB after break-monsoon period. I observed this phenomenon on number of occasions in the past. But at the moment whether real-break monsoon will happen or not. Need to see. I think this break monsoon will happen by this month end just after SWM reaches Delhi. IMD will announce the break monsoon indirectly saying “SWM axis will be orienting along foothills of Himalayas”. This is the only indication about break-monsoon by IMD.

      • IOD down to -0.07 and relative nino1+2 decreased to nino 3.4 SST and thus setting sub-variant of Modoki in classical event. However due to presence of MJO at WP, -ve effect of this sub-variation gets nullified. So tropics will be under mixed results. If the present arabian ocean system intensified to TS despite absence of MJO at Western Hemisphere and even +ve IOD then it will be clear cut proof of this sub-variant version of Modoki in a classical Elnino.

      • If MJO present at dateline-western hemisphere along with nino 1+2 cooling (compared to nino 3.4 SSt, thus Modoki-substyle), then both east-pacific and arabian oceans will be under fire. Need to see what will happen during next 1week as nino oriented in sub-varaint Modoki but with MJO’s entry to WP.

      • but models not picking up any strong system in WP in near future inspite of strong mjo forecast in WP.

      • Then mixed results are going to happen by Elnino-Modoki substyle but with MJO entry at WP. Then that literature reference finding of Elnino-Modoki do make both BOB and WP less active by descending limb of walker circulation is a great one. Even sub-style variance at Classic Elnino imparting some influence.

      • Once MJO reaching date-line, then east-pacific will host super-hurricances if this Modoki-substyle still exists by that time.

  31. 08W KUJIRA As of 06:00 UTC Jun 22, 2015: Location: 18.5°N 111.1°E Maximum Winds: 45 kt Minimum Central Pressure: 989 mb
    SOUTH CHINA SEA SYSTEM

  32. If this positive iod turns late,then we can expect good swm for chennai…but it ll be deficient for india…
    hoping positive iod before nem ie late september or early october , so strong el nino with postive iod bumper north east monsoon…

    • Yes but we should think about other places also known so let positive iod should merge before August so that until then we can also enjoy

  33. 97A INVEST As of 06:00 UTC Jun 22, 2015: Location: 19.7°N 67.4°E Maximum Winds: 30 kt Minimum Central Pressure: 990 mb
    ARB SEA SYSTEM

  34. The well marked low pressure area over northeast and adjoining eastcentral Arabian sea has
    concentrated into a Depression at 0830 hour IST of today, the 22nd June over northeast & adjoining
    eastcentral Arabian sea and lay centred near Latitude 20.0° North and Longitude 67.0°East about
    328km from southwest of Porbandar. The system is likely to move slowly in westnorthwestwards
    and
    concentrate into a Deep depression during next 24 hours

  35. Never seen IMD giving steering levels , improved technical details is being given out , Good !!!

    REMARKS:
    THE LOWER LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY, LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL
    DIVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM HAVE INCREASED DURING PAST 24 HOURS.
    HOWEVER, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE TO HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM
    CENTRE. THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX IS TRANSITING FROM PHASE 4 TO
    PHASE 5 WITH AMPLITUDE GREATER THAN ONE. THE SST IS ABOUT 30°C NEAR THE SYSTEM
    CENTRE. THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS 50-60 KJ/CM2
    AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND
    IT SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASES TOWARDS THE WEST. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, THE
    SYSTEM MAY INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
    RIDGE RUNS ALONG 24°NORTH AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCU LATION LIES TO THE
    NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE, THE UPPER
    TROPOSPHERIC WINDS ARE EASTERLIES OVER THE REGION. THE MEAN STEERING WIND
    BETWEEN 700 HPA TO 200 HPA SUGGESTS SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT. A TROUGH
    IN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL APPROACH AND INFLUENCE THE SYSTEM AFTER 24
    HOURS LIMITING ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT AND MAY STEER IT NORTHEASTWARDS
    TOWARDS GUJARAT COAST.

  36. Jupi,

    The basic is, when SST increases above normal for quiet sometime, then it will invite the MJO to that zone, once MJO crossed that zone then SST reduces.

    To increase the SST of any basin, it requires Kelvin Wave or the reflective of Rossby.

    Kelvin is marching towards Phase 1 and 2, it is expected to emerge in Phase 1 by 26th.
    The strength of Kelvin decides the fate of IOD.

  37. Elnino with +ve IOD is good for SWM along west-coast I think. Elnino will do damage to BOB convection (not do any harm to arabian).

  38. +ve IOD suppresses cyclone formation. So there won’t be any cyclones with +ve IOD that too under strong Elnino conditions. So at any cost west-coast must receive good SWM. I don’t understand how ECMWF expecting poor rains along west-coast. Only neutral to -ve IOD will effect the SWM rainfall along west-coast at the moment.

  39. Dry strong surface level westerlies is sweeping across chennai now so today I think only less chances of ts

  40. very interesting question, which can give the correct answer for very repetitive doubt put forward by almost everyone.

    Question:
    Suppose assume ONGC completed the new gas-pipe line with capacity to occupy 1X cc gas (with valves arrangements to adjust the pressure) from Chennai to Vellore. As a first run ONGC released gas to Vellore through “new-vacant pipe line with capacity occupy 1X cc gas”. Assume it has taken 1 day for consuming/receiving 1X cc of gas for Vellore. But due to more demand, ONGC wanted to double the volume (by 2X cc) of gas-supply, through valve-adjustments. Then how much time it will take for reaching this 2X-cc of the gas to Vellore? will it be more than 1 day/1X cc or less than 1 day/per 1X cc?

    what is your answer?

    Note:
    Consider the pressure/flow rate and temperature conditions used by ONGC on both occasions as same.

    • may be I give a shot, 1.as Chennai and vellore is in tropical demographic area, gas will flow freely
      2. we have to determine the pipe psi (presure per sq.inch) which should be able to flow gas in it, considering the thickenes of the pipe may be varied from 40mm to 80 mm .
      3. so I believe that the gas will move faster and will reach lesser than a day.
      eg; our own domestic gas stove, we have the same pressure tube ,but to increase pressure we use high and sim mode ,where the gas moves in high pressure in the same tube.
      note : if it is a colder climate say below 20c then the gas will flow may take few days to reach, due to condensation of gas.
      I,m not a expert but tried to figure out with instinct.

  41. 10000 cusecs water is released from Piloor dam .
    This will reach bhavani sagar..

    Good to see this happened in june itself

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