976 thoughts on “Warm day likely

  1. The circulation over the arabian sea has shifted slightly west and is covered by huge cloud mass. An anitcyclone has developed over top of the cyclone which is providing the good outflow to the system.The vertical wind shear is low over the centre and moderate towards the gujarat.SST is favorable with some pockets of highly favourable SST near the gujarat coast.Models are developing the system into a tropical cyclone with ECMWF intensifying this low pressure specially when it reaches close to gujarat coast where there are area very warm waters. This is looks like a normal low pressure and not like Monsoon depression which forms in north bay of bengal.Shear is marginally favorable but outflow and the SST values are favorable with some pockets extremely favorable warm waters.The low pressure will move towards the Gujarat coast as the monsoon trough is well established over the India.

  2. The Depression over the bay of bengal has partially made landfall and is pulling lot of moisture towards the AP and orrisa,Still a part of the circulation is over bay of bengal. Very heavy rain will continue for parts of coastal and interior of north AP and orrisa and is slowly progress towards the Madya pradesh,chattisgarh and parts of eastern maharastra.

      • since it formed in september it was under low shear going by the satellite picture of 2009 depression.And it seems to be big in size.

      • And is not a typical SWM depression as it has formed in September where the conditions gets better. Only the storm which forms in late june,july and august has the characteristic of the current depression in bay

      • The systems forming in october will have moderate shear values along odisha coast.Due to interaction of hot air from the south with cold indian land mass….depression forms above 14 degree latitude and frequency of cloud distribution will be in high range…..thus it will trigger rainfall along the west coast by pull effect and also can cause wide spread rainfall…..
        eg: cyclone hudhud
        cyclone phailin
        2010 odisha depression
        2009 BOB4
        2005 deep depression…….these systems are very intense than july and august systems

  3. wow!!!sun coming slightly making red sky in the east………i believe that such sky will cause TS evening….i don’t know the real concept why this happens….any one who knows this pls post here….. 🙂

    • its due to high moisture content and dust which gets reflected.And its said to be an indication of wet weather. But i am not sure whether it holds good for our region.

  4. Wettest Day in Maharashtra – Patherpunji crosses 300 mm as predicted
    ==========================
    Its the 2nd 300 mm rainfall for Maharashtra after Dharavi 310 mm on 19th June. As expected, Patherpunj records 336 mm other Ghats such as Navaja, Koyna records over 250 mm

    Heavyweights such as Mahabaleshwar, Gaganbawada, Dajipur all have recorded over 150 mm.

    Today rainfal in Maharashtra is going to be special.

    • I think there wont be long dry spell…Many models reduced rainfall to TN AP and South east Rayalaseema after tuesday….
      But this is long range…need not believe it completely

  5. Arabian sea system has defined circulation. Sad IMD does not even call it as LPA. While other agencies are tracking it for Possible cyclone

    • still there is is some displacment of clouds to the west of circulation. will become better organized by tonight.

  6. thunderstorms are to the western part of circulation , eastsen part of circulation is wrapped by mid level clouds.

  7. Guess the current depression crossed land.No major rainfall in vishakapatnam,srikakulam as of nw.

  8. Depression crossed over S.odisha and Rainfall to increase over Central India and this going to spread SWM over the Country.

  9. Warm day possibility over Tamilnadu and Thunder Stroms expected over North Tamilnadu and Its going to be hot over South coastal Tamilnadu with Max around 38 – 39

      • Only who follows weather like our bloggers knows where it will make landfall. Other people doesn’t know much. They doesnt even check sat images.

  10. 96B INVEST As of 00:00 UTC Jun 21, 2015: Location: 19.0°N 85.8°E Maximum Winds: 20 kt Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb

  11. 97A INVEST As of 06:00 UTC Jun 21, 2015: Location: 19.3°N 67.1°E Maximum Winds: 20 kt Minimum Central Pressure: 991 mb

  12. 08W KUJIRA As of 00:00 UTC Jun 21, 2015: Location: 15.4°N 111.4°E Maximum Winds: 30 kt Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb

  13. 93W INVEST As of 00:00 UTC Jun 21, 2015: Location: 4.7°N 151.7°E Maximum Winds: 15 kt Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

    • Dinagar, always check for the storage amount than the height of the dam. Average inflow of 11000 cusecs is 1 tmc. Whereas the inflow in kabini is 2100 cusecs. If the inflow is at this rate, the balance 10tmc will be filled in 50 days.

  14. Unusual temperature recorded yesterday nearing 39 in south coastal regions from nagai to tuty due to effect of depression, May continue 2-3 days…. anyway I escaped..
    Eventhough sunny, surface Winds are pretty very very strong Trichy areas like “sooravali kaatru” day nd night, which makes comfortable stay.. 🙂

  15. Again Nilgiris battered. Parsons Valley gets 230 mm today. Yesterday it got 342 mm.

    Parsons Valley
    ===========
    20.06.2015 – 342 mm
    21.06.2015 – 230 mm
    ——————-
    572 mm in two days.

    Avalanche
    ===========
    20.06.2015 – 225 mm
    21.06.2015 – 182 mm
    ——————-
    407 mm in two days.

    Upper Bhavani
    ===========
    20.06.2015 – 240 mm
    21.06.2015 – 133 mm
    ——————-
    373 mm in two days.

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  17. 08W KUJIRA As of 06:00 UTC Jun 21, 2015: Location: 16.4°N 111.5°E Maximum Winds: 30 kt Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb

  18. 93W INVEST As of 06:00 UTC Jun 21, 2015: Location: 4.5°N 150.1°E Maximum Winds: 15 kt Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

  19. 96B INVEST As of 06:00 UTC Jun 21, 2015: Location: 20.1°N 85.6°E Maximum Winds: 20 kt Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb

  20. :-PTROPICAL CYCLONE KOMEN
    97A INVEST As of 06:00 UTC Jun 21, 2015: Location: 19.8°N 67.6°E Maximum Winds: 20 kt Minimum Central Pressure: 991 mb

  21. Massive Rains in Nilgiris and Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu rainfall ending 8.30 am on 20.06.2015
    ===========================================
    The well marked low pressure area over Bay of Bengal, off South Odisha and North Andhra Pradesh coasts has concentrated into a Depression. The System would cross Odisha coast between Gopalpur and Puri on 21st afternoon.

    in mm (min 30 mm)

    Parsons Valley – 342
    Upper Bhavani – 240
    Avalanche – 225
    Emeralad – 117
    Porthimund – 110
    Sholayar – 100
    Makkinampatti – 89
    Lower Nirar – 85
    Valparai PTO – 82
    Chinnakalar – 77
    Manakadavu – 75
    Devala – 63
    Mukurthy – 60
    Negamam – 60
    Pollachi – 60
    Ketti – 52
    Upper Kodayar – 49
    Periyar – 47
    Chincona – 47
    K Bridge – 46
    Naduvattam – 45
    Papanasam – 44
    Valparai Taluk Office – 44
    Gudalur Bazar – 44
    Sultanpet – 37
    Glenmorgan – 36
    Lower Kodayar – 30

    Kea Weather – http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1354

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

  22. The first monsoon depression of this SWM was off shore at Puri at 5:30 IST today. It crossed the coast and has now embedded itself in the monsoon trough, and lies over interior Orissa. It has brought in very heavy rainfall in Telangana, coastal AP, southern Chhatisgarh and southern Orissa as expected. The trough has caused decent rainfall in Vidarbha too.

    Heavy thundershowers and rains likely in interior and mountainous regions of Orissa, parts of Telangana, Vidarbha and eastern Madhya Pradesh, and widespread activity in southern Chhattisgarh.

    It will move along the monsoon axis till east MP in the next 2 days. A trough is likely to extend eastwards from this system as the monsoon trough would turn active. This trough will host a UAC over West Bengal and neighbourhood triggering a heavy and much needed SWM spell over the Gangetic delta.

  23. It’s partly cloudy in chennai with bearable heat, maybe today isolated chances are there I think

    • No heat tmrw just 33 I think but yesterday gud rains in northand some parts of central chn tdy max will be 35to36 so there is gud chances of heavy showers tdy wait and watch:-)

  24. Jeetender won contest 8? I am so handicapped without electricity.

    What abiut yesterday’s contest. Mouli do u hv the data?

    • Something similar to this happens here in our case , Eastern ghats west of us usually behaves this way in initiating pop ups along the orographic…

      • Yes, there is an amazing simulator for that, not the one I showed you. Clearly shows effect of isolated mountains… Pattern is related to Karman vortex

      • Yes Susa , it starts of as small packets of moisture accumulating and over a period of time works together with other conducive factors to produce a result what we need……..effective initial contributors though

      • No prob GTS! Came to my mind a few days ago, but I forgot about it by the time I came to blog.. You reminded me with your post this time!

      • Something like that has already been proposed by Dr.T.K Krishnamurthy , from FSU , near Javadu hills

      • Mountain range near Kanchipuram would make NEM give 1500 mm+ regularly at Chennai 🙂

      • Hehe… 1500-2000 is enough for Chennai to compete with Mumbai in terms for annual rainfall.. But majority of it depends on slope

      • Lol 6000 mts. Himachal range mountains …we may even see snow capped ranges in TN(core tropics)…

  25. Dapoli is rocking!!

    Rainfall last few days.
    ———————-
    14th – 63 mm
    15th – 60 mm
    16th – 26 mm
    17th – 21 mm
    18th – 71 mm
    19th – 140 mm
    20th – 201 mm (Till 6:30 am)
    21st – 191 mm
    22nd – 22 mm so far

    Total rainfall from 14th = 795 mm (800 + if you include last 2 hours of 20th of which data isn’t available)

  26. Looks like forecasts on rainfall from BOB 01 have been spot on.. Because it was easy to predict :p Massive rains, I’ll post rainfall figures when IMD data comes out

    • BoB systems are good as they try to drag the moisture from arabian into west-coast and further interiors. But arabian systems are main culprits as they hold the mositure (lot more damage if they deviate towards gulf). For example we had seen how Ashobaa dragged all the mositure into it.

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