Another cloudy day with odd drizzles and light showers in the vicinity

Sud T.nagar 2015, KEA Blog, SWM-2015

People in Chennai and neighbouring areas will continue to enjoy their weather in delight for yet another day, as the relentless summer takes a beating thanks to a low pressure area in West Central Bay of Bengal, off the southern Orissa and adjoining Andhra Pradesh coast.

Chennai is expected to face another cloudy day with odd drizzles and light showers in the vicinity, making their serene grace felt with drops in temperature leading to a lovely evening. Temperatures will remain in the low 30s.
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Other regions of Tamil Nadu like Coimbatore, would experience cloudy weather will occasional drizzles.

Madurai is expected to be slightly hotter, but that, combined with high humidity will make it a living hell in the afternoon. There will be partly cloudy weather with periods of sunlight.
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On the whole, mainly cloudy weather will prevail along with occasional drizzles reminiscent of December like weather.

1,137 thoughts on “Another cloudy day with odd drizzles and light showers in the vicinity”

  2. Mass drizzle band in north east of chennai but no use as rs rao ji said the big cloudy ball near ap is become true

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  3. 96B INVEST As of 00:00 UTC Jun 18, 2015: Location: 17.0°N 85.5°E Maximum Winds: 20 kt Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb

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  7. Tropical Depression CARLOS As of 18:00 UTC Jun 17, 2015: Location: 19.9°N 105.5°W Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: 40 kt Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb Environmental Pressure: 1008 mb Radius of Circulation: 100 NM Radius of Maximum Wind: 20 NM Eye Diameter: N/A

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  8. Tropical Depression BILL As of 06:00 UTC Jun 17, 2015: Location: 30.4°N 97.1°W Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: 40 kt Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb Radius of Circulation: 150 NM Radius of Maximum Wind: 25 NM Eye Diameter: N/A

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  18. Perfect topic. Its going to be like Kodaikanal today. Full of on and off drizzles.

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  20. We can also expect more than light rains tonight. Today and Tomorrow are the best days as LPA lingers arounnd before moving up.

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  26. As expected the navy is monitoring the system. winds are now 20 knots and most of it seems to be in the southern quadrant.Disorganized cloud structure can be seen as the wind shear has increased a bit to moderate values.It looks like typical SWM low with north quadrant having very less thunderstorms but south quadrant looks impressive.

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  27. Continuous drizzling with very cool climate in Hyderabad.
    uppal 21 degrees
    shamshaabad 23 degrees

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  28. Clear weather in srikakulam Vizianagaram visakhapatnam. rains confined only to Central AP till now..

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  30. Jun 18 2015 : The Times of India (Chennai)

    Rainy days ahead for city: Met dept

    Chennai

    TIMES NEWS NETWORK

    

    

    The weather turned pleasant on Wednesday and it is likely to remain so for the next two to three days, say weathermen. The maximum temperature dropped from 37°C on Tuesday to 31°C on Wednesday accompanied by light drizzle throughout the day .

    “There will be cloud cover over the next two to three days and the rain will continue,“ said regional meteorological centre deputy director general S B Thampi.

    The MET office has predicted a cloudy Thursday with chances of rain and thunderstorm. Also, over the next one week light showers have been forecast.

    The city has received 17.5mm rain this month, with Wednesday bringing 4.3mm rainfall. There will be only light drizzles and no heavy rain during the next two to three days, Thampi said. He said the drizzle was because of the southwest monsoon. The maximum and minimum temperature on Thursday could be 31°C and 26°C respectively.

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  32. Models expecting extremely heavy rains for central AP
    Next 3 days summary
    Machilipatnam expected to record 320 mm
    Hyderabad kurnool 110mm

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  33. Cloudy sky for the second day here in Karaikal but doesn’t looks like it will Rain.

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  37. Surprised to see Zero rainfall, in Kea metsite in last 24 hrs, in Tambaram what a down pour it was y’day evening,

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  39. DUMBBELL EFFECT TO ENHANCE SOUTHWEST MONSOON IN INDIA
    Occasionally, weather systems occur both in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal simultaneously. This gives rise to the dumbbell effect, when both the systems complement each other to enhance rainfall activity during the Monsoon season. They could even be partly over land and partly over the sea. Such a situation is likely to arise very soon as satellite images suggest the development of cyclonic circulations on either side of the mainland of India.
    http://www.skymetweather.com/content/weather-news-and-analysis/dumbbell-effect-to-enhance-southwest-monsoon-in-india/

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  40. experts expecting the monsoon to cover entire india by end of june as the lpa expected to move towards northern regions across central india.. central india likely to get benfited the maximum thru rainfall

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  41. Monsoon Tracker: A good beginning

    The country as a whole has received 80.7 millimetres (mm) of area-weighted rainfall during June 1-17, which is about 10.9 per cent above the normal long period average (LPA) of 72.8 mm for this period.
    Moreover, 54 per cent of India’s area has recorded ‘excess’ precipitation (i.e. 120 per cent or more of a particular subdivision’s LPA), while being ‘normal’ (within 80-120 per cent of LPA) in another 23 per cent. Only in the balance 23 per cent area have rains been below 80 per cent of LPA, which translates into ‘deficient’ or ‘scanty’.

    The most heartening trend is the monsoon being either in excess or normal in the country’s most drought-prone belt from Rajasthan, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh to the contiguous stretch across Vidarbha, Marathwada, North-Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Telangana.

    http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/monsoon-tracker-a-good-beginning/

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      • Elnino will affect but according to jamstec positive iod will compensate elnino so July will be normal as per skymet

    • it is not the question of who wins or who lose, it is the question of life line (rains) for entire India, I hope mother nature will not fail / deceive India this year,

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    • Sky Met CEO claims , so many computing has been done , I have not seen any spatial forecast maps from skymet ..:( 😦

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      • Somehow run into that helipad tower and stylishly give the interview to Thala on top of Chennai… 😀

      • as far as i’m observed, i think they also accept Elnino will play a significant role this year, some other parameters will play a role to mitigate the effect of elnino,
        may be I’m wrong

      • Yeah , u r rite , they are expecting Positive IOD in Indian Ocean to counter the effects of el nino…

      • out of many years of elnino + positive iod combo,only one year of 1997 positive iod hav countered the effects of ELNINO.. why dont they think abt tat prob, when they think two successful years cant b a drought by statistical prob,..

      • Yes Sel, even in 1997 why a different second parameter apart from positive IOD could not have worked with it to counter the effects of el nino? ..if they consider their stats , this combo would fall under least significance with just one recorded event. And their claim of no two droughts can follow back to back is even more unclear ,,,I m not sure on what parameters they have come to such a conclusion …most of their claims stand out without any proper explanation given behind…

      • During ELNINO+Positive IOD, the west pacific sst also comes to normal or below normal, hence the convection stays within Bay of Bengal, since the CEW not flow with full strenght towards West Pacific or South China Sea since the HPA occupied over these regions.

        This is why in 1997 the SWM was successful, other years it was failed.

      • Positive iod might plays major role there…determining whether skymet or imd???

      • Absolutely I do agree least chances for Elnino playing a role this year, we have seen delayed , deferred monsoon ,there is every scope for normal monsoon this year, I thing too much hype is being given on Elnino factor

  45. From june 5 to till date june 17… I had seen ts regularly in chennai radar..with in 50 km and 100 km too..except only one day I think so…. But only thing is its not widespread…
    After seeing this I’m not feeling chennai is in rain shadow region for swm

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    • Chennai gets upto 45 CM or nearly 40% of its rain from SWM, it can’t be a rain shadow region rather raid fed region.

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  50. In other major countries Private weather forecasters also play a major role in predicting weather, especially to some sectors, of course we are already having some players in the field in India, with the vast knowledge we are seeing in Kea blog, I think Kea should think seriously, to start a portal to forecasting weather if possible , I’m more than 100% sure our experts will do wonders

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    • Moreover, like in US, we have a storm chaser too..in Tamil Selvan (Ramnad professor) 🙂

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      • i think we have all sort of experts here – for Cyclone we have Gokul, Sel, Vinoth sir and others, for rains – P.J, Jon, Susa, Vela sir and others, for weather paramters – raoji, Partha, Jupi, and others, of course every experts are well versed in all parameters.
        when all hands join together we will do wonders,
        kindly forgive me if i forget to mention any experts name in person

      • yes, for welcoming heat Mr. Jeetu also. thts why i wrote ‘ kindly forgive me if i forget to mention any experts name in person’

  52. As per close range radar, drizzle band is coming down..expect increase in frequency and intensity of drizzles

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  53. Iam not sure if SWM is completely on in Bangalore coz as far as i Know in the last 3 years from June 1st week it will rain eevryday in the evening and for 2-3 months there will be constant drizzles but at this point it seems to be cloudly everyday but not heavy rains…

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    • All depends on West Coast Activity PB. Drizzles are somehow missing this year due to less activity in W Coast. Let’s wait for the giants in W Coast to rock first. Our chances will then come automatically.

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      • Whitefield is cloudy with a hint of drizzle. Near my service apt. (Bannerghatta), it was gloomy with no signs of rain. Feels comfortable, however. SWM seems to have fizzled out completely in Bangalore and Hosur this year.

      • We can’t count out SWM as early as June. It started just a week back. Wait for July, August!

  55. ELNINO thresholds this year will cross the record breaking value of 1997 for sure, it does not depend on the SOI values. One cannot say that based SOI positiveness that ELNINO might not strengthen. Instead of seeing traditional SOI, we need to concentrate on Equatorial SOI, which is better to assess the latest ENSO situation and we can give reliable forecast.

    Whenever there is an ELNINO, whether it is strong or weak, the Equatorial SOI has fallen in Negative Mode and never failed in that aspect, hence the Equatorial SOI is more reliable than traditional SOI, i would be surely assessing this EQ-SOI in future rather seeing traditional one.

    The traditional one too reflects the ENSO situation, but it gives more importance to tropical waves. If there is a tropical wave like MJO in Phase 3 or 4 during ELNINO, the traditional SOI will change to positive since the MSLP tends to fall over Darwin. This is temporary, this SOI cannot stop ELNINO formation.

    Due to this we cannot say that SOI has become positive and ELNINO will not strengthen or it will fall down.

    In 1997 the EQ-SOI was Strongly Negative, which is lesser than -1 in May 1997 and went down up to -2.6 in Jan 1998. Which is the lowest in the history of ELNINO years. This itself shows that 1997 ELNINO was strongest in the history.

    Now in 2015 the same EQ-SOI has fallen up to -1.8 till May, the June value will be published in July. The May value itself is the strongest than 1997, since 1997 may recorded -1.10 only. This would be the best example that the 2015 ELNINO is more stronger than 1997, mean strongest in history.

    Regarding SWM, there is a conflict between IMD and Skymet.
    IMD given below normal rainfall due to uncertainty of Positive IOD, but Skymet is confident that Positive IOD event will occur, the same has been confirmed by Jamstec in the recent past. The same forecast given by me also on Jun 03rd in technical stuff page. SWM success depends on Positive IOD emergence, it should emerge before first half of July, so that it recover from all kinds of deficits across the country.

    If Positive IOD emerges and sustains till September then rainfall from June to September will lesser in Chennai but will be normal to excess during NEM. SWM will be normal across the country.

    Both ways rainfall succeeds in India.

    The best way to track ELNINO should be based on EQ-SOI values, lets stop threatening based on Traditional SOI. Since Traditional SOI can change due to local effects created by Tropical Waves.

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  58. Selvan, GTS and All,

    During ELNINO+Positive IOD, the west pacific sst also comes to normal or below normal, hence the convection stays within Bay of Bengal, since the CEW does not flow with full strength towards West Pacific or South China Sea since the HPA occupied over these regions.

    This is why in 1997 the SWM was successful, other years it was failed.

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    • its a common thing found in most of SWM lows.We dont have many incidents as most of swm low form in extreme north bay but this time it formed in lower latitudes.

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      • no july and august low form pretty high latititude. They form in extreme north bay.Since they form in extreme north bay we dont witness the higher wind intensity in lower levels.

  62. Contest 5 has been won by Vela
    for contest 6 there is a 3 way tie between JP, Joseph and Vijayfan. I have to give it to the Vijayfan as he hit bulls eye in one of the answers.

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  63. Today night looks so good for LPA rains in Chennai. As the day goes into the night, we will see good cloud formation. Expecting in Chennai what happened for South AP yesterday.

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      • we have to see that only for TS not when LPA or cyclone or there.

      • during cyclone it will be higher too. Will it rain or not. Its a defined circulation.

      • yeah . it will rain. confused with the explanation u gave last time i asked a similar question. thank u

    • But i observe storm intensity drops when it reaches 50km circle even during peak SWM at our latitude… we continuously miss the big storms.

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      • You can be rest assured all 100 + bloggers will post @100 comments. Thank God most of them must have gone to schools, colleges, office otherwise the show would have started right now

  64. Today’s max didn’t cross 30deg mark , this is excellent weather prevailing in chennai, reminds me a typical NEM day and when a LPA has formed S-SW of BOB

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  70. yesterday max temp :
    Machillipatnam- 29.6 C
    Ongole-33.1C
    Nellore-32.5
    Chennai city- 31.4C
    Chennai AP- 30.5C

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  72. Its going to be noon but the temprature here in chennai city is 29.7 wow and it is in june amazing.

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  74. Folks, i just thought of an idea, not sure if you all like.. Most of us capture a large volume of photos, videos of rains on a regular basis , why don’t we have a platform in the blog to create it as an album with date/year . We can’t miss those stunning camera captures from you. I remember some world weather blog sites maintain it..Thoughts?

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      • Great PJ.. That way, we can visualize storms in a given period year on year. Also recollects our memory towards mother nature

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