1,331 thoughts on “Another near miss for Nunga

    • What’s this? Give me the source

      Good news for fishers…
      Heavy rains for last two hours in chennai coast
      This ll increase fish productivity
      ..this is real news…please accept

      • Hi kea TPK also missed most of the TS of this SWM (like yesterday too), all time Strom’s come from west and divided in to two and moves south and north at rare case we get good rain’s

  1. till friday my updated vl b from shollinganallur nd thoraipakkam..

    Hope S.Chennai gets more rain 😉

  2. First BOB monsoon depression likely to form in BOB soon. I’ll post later regarding this. It is likely to head for AP, might provide cloudy skies with gentle rains for 1 day for Chennai

  3. No major rain for TN and chennai till Thursday… Not to get disappointed…. But Andra may get full benefit of the low that’s been forming in Bay.

  4. GFS taking first BOB UAC to Myanmar.. ECMWF expecting it to intensify and descend to surface near AP… hmm

  5. If any formation takes place in BOB, the first observable feature will be movement of storms from NW to SE in TN and S AP

      • Have mentioned that not sure about places it may rain south or north or Central Chennai. TS is hard to predict for particular areas

      • Day before yesterday South Chennai
        Yesterday North Chennai and Today it will turn to Central Chennai may be.
        We have to Take like this way 🙂

  6. Hello PJ! how is SWM doing in Valpari, Chinnakallar, Sholayar etc! Nothing is heard about these places! we are almost 10 days in to SWM

  7. Once upon a time a Chennai cyclone in 1721 🙂

    1721 Madras cyclone:
    It was a cyclone which struck the city of Madras (now Chennai) in the Madras Presidency on 13 and 14 November 1721. The cyclone was one of the most severe in the history of the city and destroyed bridges and even suburban villages. The damages were high and three ships of the British East India Company were lost. The Island Bridge connecting Fort St George with The Island was badly damaged as a result of the cyclone.

  8. Good morning.

    GFS most reliable in terms of tracking uac. We saw that in the past couple of months time. Ecmwf was nearly fine but not most of the time. We can trust gfs forecast saying that upcoming uac will move towards ap.

  9. Congrats PJ !!! for getting featured in TOI …

    I m seeing east west shear zone being printed for the first time on a newspaper, apart from Business Line, I may be wrong….just a guess…

    Weather blogger Pradeep John said there could be widespread rainfall in the city after three or four days. “Rain can occur due to east west shear zone through formation of upper air circulation in interior TN.“

    John said the city failed to get rain over the past two days despite rainfall on the outskirts -Tambaram and Kelambakkam.

    In June, the city received 13.3mm rain, much lesser than other areas in Tamil Nadu. Vellore had the highest rainfall in June so far, with 93mm. In 2014, the city received 96.2mm of rain, while the highest amount of rain in the city in June over the past 10 years was in 2010 when it received 136.7mm.

    Kudos !!!

    http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31807&articlexml=City-to-get-light-rain-over-next-week-15062015005018

      • Yes clear skies cannot be expected daily , but it can be witnessed , when the monsoon peaks across north Indian plains with some decrease in activity over central bay and when intense activity confines to north bay

    • Overcast skies are almost a general feature during SWM in Chennai…
      When we have convection across Bay, especially when we have deep convective clouds over central Bay , the upper level easterlies shears off the cloud tops bringing in over cast skies over areas to the west of deep convection . And when we have had storms overnight in our latitude , they would generally move to the east ,intensify over open waters , and those clouds gets sheared off the same way resulting in even more overcast conditions in the first part of a day…

      In the attached images u can see the clouds east of us getting sheared at the upper levels ….and the in the shear map , u can see the streamlines , which are easterlies….

      Only in September month , one can see more number of crystal clear blue skies, and even in early October , along with direct sunshine over us …blue colour in sun light would also see a lot of scattering in those months

  10. congrtas p.j, i hope the expectation ” Rain over the next half of the month will make up for the deficiency so far” will come true.

  11. Monsoon 5 pc above Normal so far
    India Meteorological Department on Sunday said that India had received five per cent more rainfall than the normal limit thus far even as northwest India, the southern peninsula and central India had received below-normal rainfall. Overall, the country received 53.5 mm of rainfall as compared to normal rainfall of 50.5 mm from June 1 till date.

    East and northeast India is the only sub-division to have received excess rainfall of 22 per cent. The southern peninsula has recorded a deficit of four per cent, followed by 6 per cent in central India and 10 per cent in northwest India.

    Incidentally, parts of the southern peninsula, which includes Marathwada and Vidarbha, have received normal and excess rainfall respectively until now whereas Goa and Konkan have received 45 per cent less rainfall, the IMD said.

    http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/Monsoon-5-pc-above-Normal-so-far/2015/06/15/article2866816.ece

  12. Flash…after 2-3 weeks Elnino-Modoki subvariant in classical nino turned completly to classical ELnino. This can be known from latest nino 1+2 SST, which become too strong than nino 3.4 SST. So this week onwards SWM-dynamics over BOB will strenghthen. Moreover IOD decreased. Both these IOD & ENSO turned favorable for increase in BOB-vortices. In conclusion BOB-LPA formation is just a matter of time.

    • Please note that MJO still at IO and SOI still in increasing trend. So this time sure shot of BOB-LPA formation.

      • NTN might be benefited in the form of much awaited typical SWM-TS, that could be possible within next 2-3 days. SAP will get direct rains from pull effect.

  13. Flash..depression might be short lived as SOI will be decreasing after 96 hrs. Also IOD also decreased. So trade winds will become weak and so it will weaken very rapidly.

  14. The storms in the days to come would be quite squally , with days getting closer to the “LOW” formation in north Bay….

    Courtesy:
    ————-
    Observations expert Vinodh

  15. Rainfall from the TS in and around Chennai ending 8.30 am on 15.06.2015
    ===============================
    in mm

    Ennore – 22
    Minjur – 21
    Gummidipoondi – 10
    Puzhal – 10
    Poonamallee (A) – 10
    Ellapuram (Periyapalayam) – 6
    Avadi – 5
    Kadambathur – 5
    Meenambakkam – 4
    Tharamani – 2
    Kolapakkam – 2

    More stations will added soon. Surya’s PP is geeting more rains than Nunga. Hopefully no big para from her today.

  16. Several Villagers in Kurnool Scramble for Diamonds as Monsoon Sets In.
    Believe it or not! Every year, the monsoon turns several commoners rich overnight in several villages such as Jonnagiri, Tuggali, Maddikera, Pagidirayi, Peravali, Mahanandi and Mahadevapuram in the diamond-rich area of this district. Or so, they believe.

    http://www.newindianexpress.com/states/andhra_pradesh/Several-Villagers-in-Kurnool-Scramble-for-Diamonds-as-Monsoon-Sets-In/2015/06/15/article2867268.ece1

  17. Heat is no need of much sometimes we get TS even in 35’c lets see but some chances for Today as well in Chennai.

  18. i read some where 54 F is the minimum required temperature for T.S to form…but all other factors should be 100 %

  19. Vellore was just 33 C. How did TS form there in Vellore yesterday. Its all about the trough dipping at night.

  20. My observation on SWM would be the wind factor. Even if there is a cloudy 33deg day in chennai, if the sea breeze sets in by 11AM, and the TS forms NW of chennai in some hot place, the SWM winds will carry it to 50KM radius and will interact with Sea breeze to get bountiful rains.. It is not necessary that chennai should sizzle 37+ to get rains..someone can correct me..

    • yeah exactly.. if suppose ts got initiated in vellore region , weakened and moving twrds chennai .still the interaction of ts front with sea breeze front could lead to new pop ups along its way and tats what v hav seen yesterday…

      • selva.. Why can’t TS form right on top of chennai. It always has to form in the interiors and move to chennai.. Can’t it form right on top of chennai even if there is moisture. Is there any factor that prevents it to happen?

      • It happens in AUG & SEP months after Strong SWM sets in we might Get Overhead Popups inside 50km Radius. Infact even Yesterday we have seen popups near Coast due to Collusion of Sea Breeze Front.

      • Yes I had seen many days in august that chennai ll observed rainfall while interior like vellore, even surrounding of Tiruvallur and kanchipuram ll be left out

      • In Sep sometimes popup forms first near Tiruvallur and More popups will build up over Tiruvallur,Kanchipuram & Vellore dist and Results as Monsterous one near Chennai while moving in to the Coast.

      • It is my understanding that TS forming area should not be so close to the sea, as the land sea interaction of moisture in lower levels will cause it to dissipate than forming.

      • In most cases the sea breeze front will get discontinous and weak while passing thru chennai .. the reason could be bcos of large buildings as it encounters large friction & get disperse so it may not be feeding storms .. the same front when it cross the city it gets re aligned and set a proper stage for ts formation..
        moreover sea breeze front pickup speed only after crossing 20-30km and the altitude profile of sea breeze is very crucial one!!.

  21. monsoon will b hyper active for the core areas as the trough expected to get placed bit south than the normal position!!

  22. Heat is not mandatory for a strong ts. Moisture is. I remember a ts in March passing over chennai as a weak one and it became a squall after entering the sea ! A squall in March. Imagine the lack of heat… I know that TS strengthening over the sea is a usual phenomena …but that’s the power of moisture

    • Yes Rohit , apart from it there could have been other factors like upper level divergence etc. enabling it with high availability of CAPE

  23. Even today we have better chances as trough is dipping and also excellent moisture available with good steering pattern when compared to yesterday let’s hope atleast today we get our classic first swm intense ts

    • Daily chances are high predict by bloggers but weather has different, nothing happened to chennai why? this is first time in S.W.M.we did not receive any rain apart from some drizzle

      • Sir we are only predicting the nature and the rest is given to the hands of nature so anything can happen so just leave it to mother nature she will do the rest

  24. Skymet gave normal monsoon forecast based on Positive IOD, which is struggling now.

    IOD should turn Positive at least by July first half and it has stay until September, not only that it has to very very strong, the value should stay beyond 1C to overcome strong ELNINO in the history. IF this happens, SWM will turn normal, it is really tough by seeing current scenario.

    If MJO visits regularly, SST over IO will increase, but as per my analysis, instead of MJO, we might see more Rossby Waves, more UAC’s likely than LOW’s this season.

    I have projected this 13 days go, as we are already seeing many UAC’s in Bay.

    http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1311#comment-2057773182

    • Israelies were pioneers in drip irrigation system and most of the technology used in India also based on this. Necessity is mother of invention

      • I went thro the complete article including desalination and recycling – while desalination happening here itself recycling being insisted in chemical based leather industries to some extent , but true lot of imitative needs to be done here. One good initiative is rain harvesting system

  25. in U.S, the govt it self funding private weather forecasters, and the national weather agency maintains a list of private forecasters, in India if this happens the people of the country will be highly benefitted,

    read below the article about the U.S private weather forecast Industry,

    what is more interesting in this article is :

    In its most recent statement on the subject, NOAA (NWS’s parent agency) stated the following on its Web site (http://www.noaa.gov/partnershippolicy/):

    The nation benefits from government information disseminated both by Federal agencies and by diverse nonfederal parties, including commercial and not-for-profit entities. NOAA recognizes cooperation, not competition, with private sector and academic and research entities best serves the public interest and best meets the varied needs of specific individuals, organizations, and economic entities.

    http://www.weatherwise.org/Archives/Back%20Issues/2013/January-February%202013/beyond-nws-full.html

  26. Any data on June dates over the past few years when Nungambakkam started recording “decent” SWM rains? Just curious 🙂

  27. What is common in India -Waterlogged roads, fallen trees… the rains have really arrived in Mumbai (from social media)

  28. The monsoon has galloped in the past three days, boosting this season’s total rainfall to a soothing 11% higher than normal. Rainfall was 76% more than normal in the past 24 hours, accelerating from an excess of 46% on Saturday and 22% on Friday- toi

  29. IMD changes forecast from deficit rain to excess – News Item in Dinamalar – As soon as we get English version will be posting that also.

    கொட்டப்போகுதாம் பருவமழை: ரிப்போர்ட்

    புதுடில்லி: இந்த ஆண்டு தென்மேற்கு பருவமழை, சராசரிக்கும் குறைவாகவே இருக்கும் என்று முன்னதாக அறிவிக்கப்பட்டது. வழக்கத்தைக் காட்டிலும் 12 சதவீதம் குறைந்து, 88 சதவீத மழை தான் கிடைக்கும் என்று மத்திய அமைச்சர் ஹர்ஷவர்த்தன் அறிவித்திருந்தார். இந்நிலையில் இந்த ஆண்டு கூடுதல் மழை கிடைக்க வாய்ப்புள்ளதாக வானிலை ஆய்வு மையம் தற்போது தெரிவித்துள்ளது.

    கடந்த 1-ம் தேதி வரை 53.5 மி.மீட்டர் மழை பதிவாகியுள்ளது. கடந்த ஆண்டு இதே காலத்தில் 50.5 சதவீத மழை மட்டுமே பதிவாகி இருந்தது. இதை சுட்டிக்காட்டி, இந்திய வானிலை ஆய்வு மையம் மழை அதிகமாக கிடைக்கும் என்று கூறி உள்ளது.

    • இந்த ஆண்டு கூடுதல் மழை கிடைக்க வாய்ப்புள்ளதாக வானிலை ஆய்வு மையம் தற்போது தெரிவித்துள்ளது. if this happens in real, then it is good for entire country

    • after 2-3 weeks Elnino-Modoki subvariant in classical nino turned completly to classical ELnino. This can be known from latest nino 1+2 SST, which become too strong than nino 3.4 SST. So this week onwards SWM-dynamics over BOB will strenghthen. Moreover IOD decreased. Both these IOD & ENSO turned favorable for increase in BOB-vortices. In conclusion BOB-LPA formation is just a matter of time.

      • Even Gulf of Mexico TS formation and both arabian & east-pacific hurricane weakening indicative of Hadley cycle’s turning towards its classical Elnino. WP also will host a powerful typhoon in short duration.

  30. In today’s Times of India page 5 is a weather bulletin. In that Our Pradeep John’s view is also highlighted

  31. I gathered last 5 years june rainfall data from KEA site and took data of all rainy days ( >2.5 mm). There is no convincing evidence for heat required for rains. The average temperature was 36.5 for all these rainy days. I didnt check whether any systems were around these days:

    Year DAY MEAN TEMP HIGH TEMP Max Temp TIME Rain

    2014 9 28.1 33.4 12:00am 44.4

    2014 21 32.9 39 2:19pm 2.8

    2014 28 31.1 38.9 1:11pm 25.6

    2014 29 31.3 39 12:51pm 9.2

    2014 30 30.1 37.9 1:55pm 18

    2013 6 30.6 37.6 12:03pm 14.6

    2013 27 32 38.1 1:45pm 8.8

    2013 29 30.5 36.5 1:36pm 6.2

    2012 27 29.1 37.4 12:28pm 4

    2012 28 29.1 37.2 1:29pm 20

    2011 1 31.5 38.1 12:32pm 3.4

    2011 6 32.3 38.4 12:12pm 74.2

    2011 14 30.2 36.5 1:55pm 25.6

    2011 23 31.4 38 2:17pm 10.6

    2011 24 30.8 36.6 1:23pm 12

    2011 26 30.6 36.2 1:12pm 3

    2010 5 31.4 38.1 2:21pm 14.2

    2010 6 29.5 32.6 4:43pm 13.6

    2010 9 28.2 31 12:41am 17.8

    2010 11 26.5 28.8 12:59am 3.8

    2010 23 30.6 37.5 2:25pm 3

    2010 26 30.5 38 1:07pm 30

    2010 28 28.8 33.3 1:54pm 53.4

  32. I gathered last 5 years june rainfall data from KEA site and took data of all rainy days ( >2.5 mm). There is no convincing evidence for heat required for rains. The average temperature was 36.5 for all these rainy days. I didn’t check whether any systems were around these days:

  33. In 2013,swm had covered the entire country by tis time(june 15).. onset over kerala happened on june 1st and it just took 15 days to cover entire india!!

  34. Southwest monsoon rains(TN)
    vellore-115mm
    Trichy-102mm
    Madurai-90mm
    Chennai Meenamabakkam- 30mm
    Chennai Nungambakkam- 10mm

  35. Partha, before MJO’s entry towards INdian ocean, IOD was around +0.40 (+ve). After passage of IOD through IO, it turned neutral. At present MJO exiting IO. Now if MJO doesn’t enter IO for few days then expecting IOD to turn +ve again due to Elnino-dynamics.

    • What i said was that MJO has the capacity to increase SST. However this time it did not do it, also could not trigger the lower level moisture that much, even though MJO amplitude was more than 2, that is what is creating a doubt on my mind, why it did not do it?

      May be the upper level moisture was more and that created more UAC’s over southern part, this is why there was a ACC over Central India and once MJO emerged in Phase 2 it moved towards East direction. Hence the moisture at upper level and ACC over Central India not allowed the monsoon to strengthen, now the ACC is vanished the lower level is strong.

      What i mean is, since the MJO was strong we should have get excess rainfall rather than normal one till date.

  36. Don’t know what happened to swm season in chennai as june rain will be mostly at evening only where as now we are getting rain at night which usually happens at July,Aug month

    • Yeah June evenings would turn darker , almost all my school days , remember going to terrace by 5 pm to witness gusty winds and dark clouds ..many times it would move eastwards simply without giving anything , but the ones at night times ,which start around post 10 pm would be mostly be violent …just some from my memory …

  37. looks like we will get rains tonight..my gut feeling..very humid outside and it is consistently turning dull and darker slowly though…lets see

  38. Today Many are expecting rains, vela…….and others. Everything is perfect and the trough is dipping and confluences at 13N.

    However, there are question marks,

    1. Normally, the dipping of winds is seen below 13 N too thats not the case here.

    2. The moisture at lower levels is very less.

    3. At mid-level the confluence point is seen much lower. It shows alignment of moisture is not perfect.

    Its a day for learning even though perfect confluence is happening at 700 hpa even better than last two days and those who have mastered the level would surely predict rain.

    But thats not the key level alone. Lets see what happens today.

    UAC and its trough dipping at upper levels to 13 N at night – http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/06/15/2100Z/wind/isobaric/700hPa/overlay=relative_humidity/orthographic=-281.10,11.90,2048

  39. Selvan,

    Yesterday too we did not had that much moisture at lower levels from evening to mid night, it was very much average like today. Still we got TS around 09.00PM, which bought light rain in southern suburbs, we need to wait for some more time for increase in moisture levels at lower part.

    But one more important point is that the UAC over Odisha inducing the wind pattern till NTN or upto 13N. Since we are far away the moisture incursion will take place at 700 HPA, we may not find it at lower levels, but still we will end up in getting TS. The same way we got rain in May.

    The thumb rule will be since it is an ELNINO year, we will see upper level rules most of the time, overruling the SWM basics.

  40. 5mm recorded by my rg from yesterday’s spell

    So far June rainfall figures of my area recorded by my rg

    June
    1/6/15 – 1mm
    2/6/15 – 3mm
    6/6/15 – 5mm
    9/6/15 – 11mm
    11/6/15 – 7mm
    14/6/15 – 5mm

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