Lack of Rainfall dissapoints all

Weather bloggers got it wrong big time today. Indication was for heavy TS this evening which did not materialise.

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It’s time to introspect and learn from the forecasting error. We hope to come back stronger with better forecasts. It’s a collective failure from all of us at kea weather.

1,460 thoughts on “Lack of Rainfall dissapoints all

  1. Today’s Forecast

    1) Chances of Temp touching between 39 to 40…

    2) South Coastal TN will get rains around North and South of Nagai

    3) Chances of light to medium Rains for Chennai… Due to VS…

  2. Kea, appreciate your sentiments. As we have seen in the past, its natures way of dictating things..Conditions may be 100% perfect for rains to happen..Still rains (nature) has its own way..Our forecast may go wrong, our expectations may go up for a toss,….But our indomitable spirit to chase rains should never cease…We will continue our good work in our own way …Let’s not get despondent over certain issues..

    The key to Kea blog’s success is the amazing spirit shown by those who contribute day in n day out here without getting perturbed ..

    Would request our blogger friends not to get distracted or disappointed and show the same Zeal, Zest n the indefatigable spirit in pursuit of improving ourselves in the study of weather n climatology.

    United we blog, better we stand..

  3. i hope KEA puts a heading when we get a TS correct.

    I dont think there is need for this heading. What is it trying to convey. How can we master weather with yesterday’s failure. Total chaos in blog from yesterday night and now captain highlighting something and calling it as MISTAKE. Did we do any wrong.

    • Pradeep, it’s always better to bow down over failures n get up quickly rather than to get ecstatic and celebrate when we succeed..

      Lets enjoy when it rains,

      Let’s keep our emotions in check when it doesn’t..

    • in the top right corner sort by will be given change it into newest new comments will come..

  4. Clear sky and Bright Sunshine here in Karaikal.
    Dont expect Any rains the unexpected Rains are much better and we get More pleasure when Rain comes without Expectations.
    The day before yesterday i didn’t Expect any rains here in Karaikal it Rained in Early morning for an Hour and Enjoyed the Rains completely till it Stops it was more pleasure for me.
    So dont have high hopes on Todays Rains in Chennai whatever the Factors support.

      • PJ i feel for Chennai Rains only Naked Eye Technology should be good for SWM. Charts and wind pattern is totally disappointing us.

      • Should watch Clouds formation closely thats better.
        Lets be a sky watcher for sometime.

      • Ok continue that. But dont expect all to do that. You are expert in that. Not everyone.

      • Lol Nothing like that PJ. The thunderstroms are still struggling to reach Chennai lets hope and wait till the Thunderstroms enter in to 50km Radius thats my feel Lets dont have high hopes before Popup forms or at the time popup forms.

      • If i have been in Chennai i will predict rains only after seeing the Clouds formation,Movement and behaviour of Clouds.

  5. I think whatever the topic kea put today is a general thought of most of our bloggers. It is a genuine feeling. Yes we predicted a good show which didnt materialise. So it is time to introspect and find the reasons behind it. If we find the reasons, next time we will predict much better. The topic has only increased the credibility of the blog and its efforts. Have we ever got a self critical IMD accepting for its mistakes. never. so we are one up compared to IMD.

    People who regularly watch our blog, also will appreciate our accurate predictions regularly especially that of PJ , susa and others. SO nothing to lose heart.

  6. My heading for Today as Eshan did not put anything in the header regarding today rains or anything related to weather.

    “The embedded UAC in East Shear Zone near AP coast moved up towards Odisha Coast. Wind confluence is going to happen at North TN / South AP coast as always TS forms south of it. We need TS to form south of 13 N for Chennai to get rains as strong westerlies prevail. The predicted TS yesterday by bloggers will materialize today If it moves towards Chennai. Enjoy the rains”.

    http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/06/13/2100Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=relative_humidity/orthographic=-278.73,8.09,1024

    • By seeing steering patterns @700hpa.we just need a TS near thiruvannamalai to reach chennai

      • Spot on Ameen. Steering winds are SW. This is called learning. cheers to you

      • Thanku. Hope ts forms near thiruvannamalai. Pj sir pls mention in your comment that we need a ts near thiruvannamalai. So when kea sir makes. Everyone can see and read from where TS will come and they will not ask again and again

  7. Ehsan, next time give mouli the chance to create a heading at morning 8.00 am and tell him to predict rains with his proven cloud movement technology.

  8. See Comk, they predicted rains yesterday, they failed too. Today they moved on with todays analysis. Not highlighting yesterdays miss.

    What would been been Ehsan title. Had the squall moved towards city instead of Ponneri.

    • PJ, we know your and other senior bloggers capabilities. u will come back strongly. That time kea should modify his mistake.

      • sunspot i got pissed off with the word “”mistake”” What has mistake to do with weather. Till he changes that word i will not relent. Surprised Novak is in captain side.

      • Absolutely PJ. We have to be God to predict rains with 100% accuracy. Nature is yet to be and cannot be completely decoded

      • Joseph we rely on models and interpret with some factors which works for us. Each one has different style.

      • Yeah. We predict the favorable conditions for rains. There can be cases where conditions are much favorable, but nothing materialises. That’s not in our control. Those are not really mistakes

      • Yes agreed – but just remember Mackenna’s Gold dialogue from
        Omar Sharif to Gregory Peck- “You can lead the way but I will be the capitan

  9. mouli, the steering winds inside the circle of Chennai is weak. thats the reason TS is not moving in.

  10. Reached kochi πŸ™‚ dark clouds already surrounded.no sunshine here at all! Loads of water in road hoping for some heavy showers here after afternoon πŸ™‚

  11. Today Lets enjoy the Rains Kea bloggers, core city lets wait till last moment. Will be back by that time.

    • no as expected it staying and weakened to Depression willl now weaken into wmL before landfall.

      Technically no landfall.

  12. Mouli with ur proven Cloud movement technology. How are u predicting rains in interiors. by staying near coast.

    • Mouli please reply. How are u predicting rains when u are near the coast. Can u spot the clouds from here

    • PJ iam telling only About Chennai if we are in Interiors we can predict Rains there. Will try to predict once i reach Chennai even if i fail its doesn’t Matter.

      • Because Stroms mostly forms there for sure but We can predict Rains where we stay by Cloud movements and we can also say where it rains around 100 – 150km through Clouds.

  13. keeping a blog and sleeing till 10.00 am. How can we learn from mistake. If ehsan sleeps whole day.

  14. idhu enna pa idhu
    when moisture is more steering winds are weak
    when steering winds are strong moisture very less

  15. Novak, I am going to be safe like COMK. Win-win whether it rains are not in Chennai. Its easy to say north TN will get rains as we know daily pop-up will form there.

    Rains till boundary line of Chennai and it may move to chennai if lucky. So if it misses Chennai we can say we already stated that too.

    • Let’s not lose our uniqueness. Hit or miss, we predict in advance and for specific places.

    • Might be when predicting in advance and for specific places, we can add “with x% confidence/certainty” when rains or time nears we can try more accurate ones, around noon may be

      • Brilliant Novak – Time has come PJ to erase ….. from his memory . PJ has his own individuality and just cannot imitate or copy or follow anyone.

  16. Just went through a few comments, please stop calling yesterday’s buss as PJ’s mistake. Many people including myself predicted rains for 3 days starting from 11th. It rained in Chennai only on 11th and yesterday was a buss. That becomes my mistake too. No one could’ve bet that the UAC in SW BOB would’ve weakened and faded away overnight just like that.

  17. I think yesterday we didnt rains because of parthasarathy temple’s kumbabhishekam. Normally priests pray hard that they get no rains for a day after kumbabisekam is done.

    we got fabulous clouds yesterday still we didnt get rains.

  18. If anyone want to see awesome off spin with flight, dip and turn, watch the upcoming Legend Ashwin in action.

  19. Rains Due To Ashobba…See That Yearly Rainfall Rofl…
    Torrential rains have already caused flooding in eastern Oman. One of the hardest-hit areas has been Masirah Island where more than 225 mm (9 inches) of rain fell in only 24 hours. Normal yearly rainfall is around 40 mm (1.6 inches), so more than five years’ worth of normal rain fell in only 24 hours

      • Time for them to respond to this provocation – @gokultamilselvam:disqus@disqus_WTnHJyB1hv:disqus – appears to be online . I am rest will see this as well

  20. Ameen not everyone has time to spend in weather fully. So they will say what they know and they aren’t wrong because after all a buss is a buss. It is better to prove to them that rains can be predicted..

  21. Heavy over night rains occurred in nunga region… All other places left bone dry…
    Nunga – 352 mm
    Meena – 0mm

  22. Monsoon Trough/Heat Trough gets into reasonable action at the surface level..but the impact remains unaffected into lower layers of the Troposphere above msl…..Currently it is only the eastern end seeing some deepening and has set up some associated flows around it …..These conditions though depict diurnal changes at 12 UTC, still can account for some things to locate

    http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/00hgfs_mslp.htm

    • kiran i have one doubt. where u r really located. somtimes you are reporting from hyderabad, sometimes kurnool and some times vizag or tirupati.

      • Mine HYD…
        After office on Week days I will go to Kurnool (210 km from hyd…..)
        I completed B-Tech in Tirupati SV University 6 months back..Some times I go there on college stuff

  23. Looking at Blue skies and ‘Ray shaped’ Cirrus clouds, it is all clear weather. No rains can be expected today. You can see these clouds in the KEA CAM

  24. Wow look at the clouds over Bangladesh in star sports 1 looks scary and players went off the field without even the start of rain

    • y India did not declare ? they would have seen the forecast & scoring too much runs not going to prove any thing

    • From Bangladesh………..Cricinfo…………Anuj:

      “Cloud1: “Our team is in danger. Shall we pour down?”

      Cloud2: “Our batsmen are doing well. Let’s not bother them at the moment.”

      Cloud1: “Look!! 2nd wicket down!! Shall we go now?”

      Cloud2: “Patience!! Let the captain play!!”

      Cloud1: “Gone!! Even the skipper’s gone!! Come on let’s go!!”

      All-Clouds: “Amen!!””

      Rain halts the Play

  25. I think we can get some rain today evening because the clouds in the sky indicate a sign of rain today. hope for the best

    • I read that a place in Oman got 22cms in a single day which it normally takes 5years to achieve. For a place which receives annual rainfall of 5cms, these rains are totally uncalled for and no wonder the places are flooded.

  26. Yesterday on my way to Kurnool from Hyderabad to Kurnool…there was a continuous drizzle from Hyderabad to mahaboobnagar and kothakota and then it is completely dry till kurnool

  27. Weather forecast for major cities in India.

    DELHI- partly cloudy skies. Max and min temperature would be around 41c and 31c.

    MUMBAI- overcast skies with modrate rain and heavy at times. Max and min temperature would be around 29c and 25c

    KOLKATA – cloudy skies. Light to modrate rains would occur. Max and min temperature would be around 32c and 28c

    CHENNAI – partly cloudy skies. With TS developing in interior tamil nadu could move towards chennai. Max and min temperatures would be around 36c and 29c.

    HYDERABAD – partly cloudy skies turning into cloudy sikes in evening would result in rainfall. Max and min temperature would be around 32c and 24c

    BANGLORE- thunder storms expected in evening. Max and min temperatures would be around 30c and 21c.

  28. on november 2012 tirupati received a bulk of rains….while chennai remained dry….about 23 cms fell in city creating floods….higly unforgettable day…overall NEM 2012 tirupati received 83 cms….wheras chennai received just 51 cms….got thrilled

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