UAC movement down to S.AP and N.TN starts tomorrow, Chennai to get rains

This forecast is valid for the period starting from 8.30 am of 09.06.2015 to 8.30 am of 10.06.2015

There is a general feeling in our blog that UAC wont give rains. All this myth is just because Chennai is not getting rains from UAC. The truth however is the opposite, Andhra is getting massive rains, many stations that too Coastal stations are reporting 100 mm rainfall without SW monsoon setting there and its due to the UAC. This is the 3rd UAC to from in BoB starting from May 2nd week and more UAC will form in coming week.

Chennai Rains: The Cyclone in Arabian sea is moving away westwards, this allows our BoB UAC to traverse down in the mid level and in coming days it is steered into Interior TN assuming that the UAC will be good shape but weakened in mid-level.

Wind confluence

The UAC while moving down along the ridge creates wind confluence tomorrow night / 10th early morning. Though it is little north of us, i feel there will rains for Chennai too as there is abundant moisture not only at mid level but at lower levels too. That to me is always key to rains. The coming days 10 and 11 also looks good for rains with UAC moving into Interior TN. Lets start with 9th and then continue tracking.

1,501 thoughts on “UAC movement down to S.AP and N.TN starts tomorrow, Chennai to get rains

  1. We are into the ninth day of June. Normally by this time the city would have had at least one good spell of TS and not the drizzles we got on Saturday. Hopefully things change for the better in the coming days. Till then…….

    Watch “6th June Anna Nagar rains. 2013” on YouTube – https://youtu.be/tkiY7PDUVKw

    Watch “NEM FIRST SPELL. ANNA NAGAR WEST. 17 OCTOBER 2014.” on YouTube – https://youtu.be/dwHRkO-cArU

  2. Overnight heavy rains all over rayalaseema…
    kurnool Anantapur kadapa witnessed heavy rains..Continuous drizzling in hyderabad
    Rainfall till 5 30 am
    Kurnool – 50 mm
    Anantapur – 35 mm

  3. Dry air surrounded ashoba…less chance for intensification.meanwhile convection developing over SW Arabian sea

  4. Deficits in Rayalaseema turned to excess with the current rains…
    East godavari tops in AP with 500 percent excess rain

  5. General feeling is, why do you keep expecting rains during summer? Enjoy heat during summers and rains during monsoon. But, this has not been the case for last 3years. Given the situation, (failure of sufficient rainfall for 3 years) , it only feels right to expect rain now. Of course, nature has another design for us, I guess. It’s very disheartening to see every potential ts dissipating right in front of the eyes. Anyway, I felt this is the right place to pour out my heart. On one side, water tankers sucking out every drop of water (not to mention so much being spilled en route-ratha kanneer), on the other so much sand is being dug out every night. Where are we heading to?

    • I always wondered despite spilling to much water enroute. How do they still manage to have water when they reach the destination?

    • That’s the fate of suburbs… Water has been pumped in loads and loads of tankers to supply to IT and apartments in the city…which makes suburban areas too feeling the water crisis.

      I have posted here many times that bore well dried in my apartment before NEM comes into action last year

    • I buy water not only for drinking and also for cooking purpose and leave alone for other purpose – the metro water tanker quota is there.

      • Yes you can get once in a forth night only . For additional requirement private tanker supplies at rate ranging from 1800 to 2000 for 9000 litres. Metro charges Rs.600/= for 9000 litres

      • After taking into consideration the spillage and water sold during the transit unofficially we may get anything between 7500 to 8000 litres. How many of them go up and see the tanker is empty. Most of the tankers will have 3 compartments and we may not see at all

      • My personal feeling it is painful to see water tankers and sand lorries moving around in chennai when we have yearly rainfall of 1400 mm.

      • Nanmangalam Nemilicherry is full of water business from deep borewell, while Chennai gets from Kilpauk Water Works, we get from Metro Water desalinization plant

  6. The manner in which Cyclone Ashobaa is moving in the Arabian Sea, it is seen helping extend the northern limit of the Monsoon flows along the fringes of west coast gradually …It maintains the bulk of low level wind fluxes to stay accumulated to its south and to impact west coast ….

  7. another day of drama.. precip charts shows 10 to 15mm of rain near chennai coast later part of the day. i dont want to point out the areas

  8. This Comment Is a Comment Which has The Special Qualification To Be a Featured Comment But Does not Have The Very Special Qualification To Be A Comment Atleast

  9. Indian Ocean Dipole and the monsoon: The Joker in the forecast pack
    Dr Suryachandra Rao, Associate Mission Director, Monsoon Mission, at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), explains a key atmosphere-ocean phenomenon.
    Almost all global models have predicted the El Nino will get stronger. Considering the evolving El Nino and negative or neutral IOD in the Indian Ocean, the chances of a bad monsoon are very high.

    http://indianexpress.com/article/explained/indian-ocean-dipole-and-the-monsoon-the-joker-in-the-forecast-pack/

  10. Another pleasant morning here in Karaikal expecting Some TS over parts of North coastal Tamilnadu and Interior Tamilnadu.

  11. Monsoon Rhythms Have Changed, Finds Study by IISc
    A recent study of the Indian monsoon has detected a decrease in its “slow rhythms” and an increase in extreme events.This means, more water in a shorter span of time. Management of this big volume of water can get difficult in urban areas,
    Slow rhythms of the monsoon have decreased over the past 60 years,A compensating increase in the number of extreme rainfall events in the monsoon months has also been detected in the study.An increase in extreme events occurred over the coastal regions in the months of May and June and over central India in the months of July and August
    http://www.newindianexpress.com/states/karnataka/Monsoon-Rhythms-Have-Changed-Finds-Study-by-IISc/2015/06/09/article2856983.ece

  12. buish sky and patchy low level clouds…is that a good sign…it was energy sapping day at badminton court..most of them were tired after 20 mins of play…sweat poured like hell..all parameters mazha mattum than varanum

  13. I think we have attached too much on UAC I was about to type something in FB my fingers automatically types UAC instead of something. Oh too much

  14. Cherrapunji dream run continues as it gets over 1700 mm Rainfall in just 4 days

    in mm

    06.06.2015 – 410
    07.06.2015 – 340
    08.06.2015 – 579
    09.06.2015 – 404
    ==============
    Total – 1739
    ==============

  15. Latest on ENSO, SOI and IOD update from Australian Met.

    ELNINO Strengthening, SOI increasing due to MJO influence in Phase 2 and 3.
    IOD likely to increase by next week.

    ENSO Values.
    NINO 3 increased from 1.3 to 1.5C above normal SST
    NINO 3.4 increased from 1.1 to 1.3C above normal SST
    NINO 4 increased from 1.1 to 1.2C above normal SST
    Subsurface water temp increased to 5C above normal from Central to East Pacific.
    Trade Winds consistently weaker than average

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview

    SOI
    SOI value increased to -8.5 from -17 in the past 2 weeks, this is due to MJO effect Phase 2 & 3, this has reduced the MSLP over Darwin, since SOI started to Increase. This is temporary and will decrease once MJO moves to Phase 6.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=SOI

    IOD
    Two of five models suggest a positive IOD during spring, and another remains just short of thresholds.

    Since ELNINO is strengthening and IOD likely to become Positive we might see normal rainfall pattern in June. Since IOD forecast suggests that it will once again become Neutral by July and remain Neutral till August, SWM is under threat.

  16. i still hope this uac will give Chennai much needed rains,even i said this in previous comments.it seems.tc in arb is moving out more of north,which make our uac aswell as swm to be active ..hereon.

  17. TAMIL NADU DAILY RAINFALL

    Sendamangalam (Namakkal Dist)
    5

    Denkanikottai (Krishnagiri Dist)
    3

    Madurai south (Madurai Dist), Pudukottai (Pudukkottai Dist), Thali (Krishnagiri Dist), Paramathivelur (Namakkal Dist), Thammampatty (Salem Dist)
    2 each

    Vedasandur (Dindigul Dist), Kamatchipuram (Dindigul Dist), Aravakurichi (Karur Dist), Naduvattam (Nilgiris Dist), Pechiparai (Kanyakumari Dist), G Bazar (Nilgiris Dist), Devala (Nilgiris Dist)
    1 each

    Madurai city would have received more than 5 cm.

  18. What a flood of clouds in Ashobaa..If it over comes the dry air & Vws,,surely major floods will happen in muscat ..

  19. Ocean temperatures continue to rise in the tropical Pacific

    The 2015 El Niño continues to develop. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest further warming of the tropical Pacific is likely, with sea surface temperatures forecast to remain above El Niño thresholds for the remainder of the year.

    Most oceanic and atmospheric indicators are consistent with El Niño. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have continued to warm, and trade winds have been consistently weaker than average. However, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is currently rising, with this due to local weather, not climate factors. In the past three months the SOI has averaged −9.7, exceeding El Niño thresholds. Cloudiness near the Date Line has also eased towards more normal levels, but this shift may only be short-lived.

    El Niño is often associated with below-average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia, and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country. The strength of El Niño doesn’t directly relate to the strength of its effects on Australia’s climate.

    The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Of the five international models that provide IOD outlooks, two suggest a positive IOD is likely later in 2015, with a third model just shy of thresholds. A positive IOD is typically associated with reduced winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern and central Australia.

  20. Tropical activity
    – Southwest Indian Monsoon announced along with the first cyclone for the north Indian Ocean cyclone season.
    – A hurricane in the far eastern Pacific, with potential for more.
    – Recent Madden–Julian Oscillation activity forecast to weaken.

    El Niño in the tropical Pacific
    – El Niño steadily develops in the tropical Pacific.
    – Models suggest further ocean warming likely.
    – Sea surface temperatures expected to remain well above El Niño thresholds at least for the remainder of the year.

  21. Bloggers,

    Temporary ACC at 500 HPA east of Chidambaram, impacting NTN coast, this is expected to move away today afternoon.

    East to West Shear Zone at above 15N at 700 HPA levels, this should come down in latitude upto 15N by evening, this might too bring us TS.

    http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=relative_humidity/orthographic=-279.57,12.12,2609

    http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/700hPa/overlay=relative_humidity/orthographic=-279.57,12.12,2609

  22. Ts is almost confirmed for chennai today because gfs is expecting some strong ts, foreca expecting good towers from 11 pm tonight, earth null shows good moisture at 700, 500 hpa levels but later this evening, so almost all of the models predicting ts if ts misses us means then really something wrong with chennai only I can tell that

  23. I think that Tamil reported is right in saying due to Ashobaa TN will get heavy rainfall.

    Yes,

    Since Ashobaa is moving away from our Indian Coast, it gives chance to SWM to progress further, hence SWM onset will happen in remaining areas of TN tonight.

    • but the tone was different. it said ” Due to cyclone Ashobaa in arabian sea T.N will receive heavy rains today” sends completely wrong info to people. they r not clear – either because they did not understand weather or some one communicated them wrongly..

  24. There are many occasion in news whenever a weather phenomenon is reported they used to show a completely irrelevant satellite picuture probably an satellite picture of someother system taken sometime back such is the negligence of our tv news reporters on weather

  25. the fact is media never post any article about weather on its own, they post what ever IMD said in a particular time in the media update, but things change drastically with in next update, and the news printed always become obsolete.

    • I am 30 years been living in chennai. When did TS’s happen every single day in chennai ? June is always hot in chennai with occasional rainfall.. Too much expectations..

    • not in june….it is applicable only in august and september…that too not everyday….minimum we ll see ts in 2-3 days gap… but last year from august 1 to august 14…except one day..all days we had seen ts…

  26. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ASHOBAA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
    SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
    10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
    IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS
    SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE EASTERLY
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DESPITE THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT, A 082355Z SSMIS
    IMAGE DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
    POISTIONED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. THE
    CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED SOLELY ON DVORAK INTENSITY
    ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
    CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE. TC 01A
    CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
    THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
    NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO
    SLOW BRIEFLY THEN TURN WESTWARD AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE SWITCHES
    TO A BUILDING STR OVER AFGHANISTAN. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
    INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, HOWEVER,
    TC 01A SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DUE TO
    INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT,
    DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND LAND INTERACTION. THERE IS
    LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK TO A BIFURCATION
    IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING AN UNLIKELY NORTHWARD
    TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR
    THE WESTWARD-TRACKING GROUP OF GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
    HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z,
    092100Z AND 100300Z.//

    • Pls don’t waste your time tracking useless system which is not going to make landfall anywhere, only hope is it will dissipate

      • It will be useful for next year discussion as how and why it failed. One day will be over forgetting Chennai same time.

  27. Wow excellent moisture is available at 700,500 hpa levels at 20 hrs tonight so rains cannot escape from us

  28. Bloggers,

    The TS we got in May and June first week over NTN was mostly from Upper Level Temp Difference. As i said earlier the Polar Cold Front extended up to mid latitudes bought us TS activity, this is why we had UAC also. This disturbance will surely get us the thunderstorms as per several articles which i went through.

    Why i was saying that SWM has not set in then how come sea breeze will help. It is very simple. When SWM sets in, the lower level westerlies will heat up and when it meets sea breeze the westerlies warm air will raise above and TS will form, but now SWM did not set in and lower level westerlies were dry, then how come you say that sea breeze has set in early. It is simple, even though the sea breeze has set in early today, we will get TS, since the TS formation will be due to upper level temp difference again, even today.

    This is why i said to Ameen today that even it rains in Chennai today, that rain will not be SWM onset.

    Today rain will be purely Upper Level Disturbance, Sea Breeze not required.

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