Another UAC, same story

keaweather 2015, KEA Blog, SWM-2015

Yet another system left Chennai’s hopes disappointed. Much was expected from this UAC, but it skipped Chennai yet again. Our luck, particularly for Nungambakkam has been pretty horrific this year. Hope it changes for the good soon or else it will be difficult next 3-4 months,

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749 thoughts on “Another UAC, same story”

  1. Chennai could only expect rain after the change in wind direction at the 700 hpa level, caused by the upcoming Arabian sea cyclone!

    Reply

    • Latest GFS taking it somewhere close to North Pakistan. Few days later there is a system crashing into Andhra.

      I feel monsoon will begin only after 15th, until then it will remain weak.

      Reply

  2. at last things are moving fast (whether good/bad for SWM) after very slow start. Arabian cyclone is on the cards under the initiation good amplitude MJO 🙂

    Reply

  3. No more hopes for Rains from UAC. Lets hope for Beloved Thunderstorm season. There is sure shot of Intense TS which is normal at this time. There is no disappointment from Evening TS.
    Lets hope for Widespread Evening TS in Chennai.

    Reply

    • Yes once SWM sets in passing clouds certainly spill something to us in the evenings , and one can be sure of evening clouds cooling the temperature even if it does not give rains. Watch out evening beautiful lightening on the western horizon – a real treat

      Reply

      • Yeah, But passing Clouds of TS already cooling down the Temperature and lightning activity have seen very much and it was pleasant and very pleasant if we compare normal uncomfortable june with late sea breeze.
        Lets hope for Heavy TS.
        Iam happy that eventhough we are not getting unseasonal Rains but atleast getting Unseasonal Pleasant Weather Its Nice.

  4. UAC gone without much anticipated rains over Chennai 😦 I will give schematic explanation what really went wrong with UAC in short time 😦

    Reply

  6. Who said UAC gone without giving rain. It gives good rain over the poondi lake . And even too Nunga received more than 1mm . Still some more rain possible towards evening ☔☔

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  7. I worried about close missed call for Chennai. UAC at one stage exploded to “highest convection”, entire coastal AP received huge amounts of rainfall, Machilipatnam (coastal area like Chennai) received 130 mm within short time. but why like this happening only for Chennai? lets hope blasting NEM-2015 ahead.

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  10. Article from Deccan Cronicle today. Tamilnadu was first State to try this out several years back but all their attempts were failed miserably

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  11. June begins on a cool note in Chennai
    ————————–

    CHENNAI: June, the hottest month in Chennai, began on a cool note this year. Cool winds and cloudy skies greeted commuters on a Monday morning, and it soon started drizzling in several parts of the city.

    The city recorded a maximum temperature of 30 degree Celsius at 11.30am.

    Met department officials said the climate in Chennai might be cool for the next three days.
    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/June-begins-on-a-cool-note-in-Chennai/articleshow/47497646.cms

    Reply

  13. Trivandrum , hardly any sign of monsoon setting in. Few clouds around. Thankfully not that sticky and humid. In fact Ernakulan is always more humid n sultry than Trivandrum. Same time when you talk of rains or monsoon. a city like TVC need not worry or bother too much as they get rains almost 8 to 9 months in a year. Both April n May saw rains belt this city and a slight delay may not be that disturbing for the locals here.

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  14. Krishnagiri battered again, Tamil Nadu Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 02.06.2015
    =================================
    The cyclonic circulation over west central and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal off south Andhra Pradesh coast now lies over west central Bay of Bengal off Andhra Pradesh coast and extends between 3.1 & 5 8 kms a.s.l.

    in mm

    Kondampatti – 70
    Rayakottah – 63
    Hosur – 56
    Palacode – 49
    Karimangalam – 47
    Thali – 40
    Pennagaram – 40
    Devakottai – 38
    Uthangarai – 32
    Sivaganga – 30
    Jolarpet – 29
    Alangayan – 26
    Marandahalli – 24
    Kadaiyampatty – 23
    Kodaikanal – 23
    Devala – 21
    Vaigai Dam – 19
    Parsons Valley – 18
    Emerald – 18
    Denkanikottai – 18
    Ammapet – 17
    Vadipatti – 15
    Mettur – 13
    Krishnagiri – 13
    Paiyur – 12
    Mettupatti – 12
    Periyakulam – 11
    Dharamapuri – 10
    Dharmapuri Pto – 10
    Nedungal – 9
    Madhanur – 8
    Natrampalli – 8
    Kadambathur – 8
    Pencondapuram – 6
    Mecheri – 6
    Yelagiri – 6
    S Pudur – 5
    Tirupathur – 5
    Andipatti – 5
    Pochampalli – 5

    Kea Weather – http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1351

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/2015-tamil-nadu-rainfall-data.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

    Reply

  16. Normally strong winds prelude onset of SWM around these places..Though its not quite strong, I guess its getting stronger. This means the onset is not far away . Hopefully in few days time the much awaited n much debated onset sets in…

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  17. Strong south west monsoon onset possible this saturday or sunday…
    MJO gonna boost monsoon to peaks….
    Hope it covers south india by next week

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  18. மதுரை:மதுரையில் நேற்று இரவு இடி, மின்னலுடன் 2 மணி நேரம் மழை கொட்டித் தீர்த்தது.

    அக்னி நட்சத்திரம் முடிந்து அதன் தாக்கம் தொடர்ந்த நிலையில் நேற்று பகலில் வெயில் வாட்டி வதைத்தது.மாலையில் குளிர்காற்று வீசியது. இரவு 8 மணிக்கு பல்வேறு பகுதிகளிலும் கனமழை கொட்டியது. மழையின் போது ஊர்மச்சிகுளத்தை சேர்ந்த ராமகிருஷ்ணன், ௩௬, மின்சாரம் பாய்ந்து பலியானார்

    Ctsy: Dinamalar

    Reply

  20. Andhra continues to get rain from the UAC, Tamil Nadu Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 02.06.2015
    =================================
    The cyclonic circulation over west central and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal off south Andhra Pradesh coast now lies over west central Bay of Bengal off Andhra Pradesh coast and extends between 3.1 & 5 8 kms a.s.l.

    in mm (min 20 mm)

    Tatapudi – 90
    Machilipattinam – 54
    Muggaulla – 50
    Ethakota – 48
    Torredu – 45
    Mogalthur – 45
    Nuzvid – 42
    Bheemavaram – 36
    Undi – 36
    Yelamanchili – 31
    Palakoderu – 30
    Palacole – 29
    Kangundi – 29
    P Gannavaram – 28
    Meerjapuram – 28
    Kothapeta – 27
    Agiripalle – 27
    Bantumilli – 27
    Gollavanitippa – 26
    Narasapuram – 25
    Settigunta – 24
    Madicherla – 23
    Atreyapuram – 21
    Yerragondapalem – 20
    Rayavaram – 20
    Kalumala Doddi – 20
    Muramanda – 20
    Kuppam – 20
    Venkatarama Agraharam – 20
    Vijyawada AP – 20
    Tanuku – 20
    Tiruvuru – 20
    Tadepalligudem – 20

    Kea Weather – http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1354

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

    Reply

  21. Rajesh Sir of Vagaries weather expects the onset dates over Kerala around 4th or 5th June and only by 13th or 14th in Bombay against the normal onset dates of 7th or 8th. A good one week later.. The views shared by him when I met him last week there.
    Same time one can never undermine SWM pulse as it can cover the expected areas or regions within no time. Conditions can change dramatically.

    Reply

      • when every one is failing why pin pointing a particular agency? i’m of the strong view always that nature will have last laugh,irrespective of models projections, or agencies prediction, if it rains it will be good for the entire country, second successive drought will impact Our whole Country, hope for the best, let nature decide

      • Well if they say it in national level they are bound to take responsibility for success and failures

  26. An hour back or so I had posted images of clear blue skies over the horizon. Things have changed so soon as of now. Nice pre monsoon cumulus have surfaced within no time here in Trivandrum.

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  27. One of the most delayed swm onset happened in the year 1972..onset date was june 18th and it was a combo of elnino& positive iod

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  29. The east -west shear zone according to last night’s IMD analysis lies app. close to 10 N parallel…..

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  31. The Heat Low near Jacobabad(Pakistan) continues to remain quite weak with average isobaric pressure of 1000 mb app.

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  32. The region influenced by east-west shear zone as per 12 UTC analysis charts of IMD dated 2nd June , 2015, indicates Comorin sea, Sri Lanka, S.TN and adjoining Kerala and its coastal areas ….

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  35. Good morning bloggers
    Dear folks this year we may not receive the normal SWM quota for Chennai because its an El Nino year with weak streamlined wind flow. ECMWF predicts a a bad SWM for us especially in August and September. So what we receive in this month and next month will be deciding our fate on Chennai’s SWM 2015. Any way let’s hope for the best…

    Reply

  36. TEJ wind surges peaks over a wide area aloft @ 100 hPa, extending from SE bay- north andaman sea- gulf of thailand , with wind speeds ranging from 60 to 80 knots ………

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  37. Under the weather: India badly needed a good monsoon year
    rural distress is already high due to last year’s weak monsoon and unseasonal rains in March. A second straight year of inadequate monsoon will decrease the efficacy of India’s irrigation ecosystem and impact crop and farmers adversely. An El Nino event can distort rainfall distribution — causing floods in some parts and drought in others — amplifying consequences.

    The regional distribution of rains IMD predicts for 2015 is similar to what played out last year. The northwest region, which accounts for almost half of India’s food grain production, is seen impacted the most this year followed by central India, which produces a fifth.

    But given their reasonably high irrigation levels, agricultural production in Punjab (98% of the total area cultivated is under irrigation cover), Haryana (85%) and UP (76%) was less affected by last year’s deficient rainfall. But a second straight year of weak monsoon means their irrigation ecosystem will be stretched further.

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Under-the-weather-India-badly-needed-a-good-monsoon-year/articleshow/47520775.cms

    Reply

  45. Yes…. They got huge variation on yesterday forecast and two months before one forecast they had took

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  49. Guys I have been following this blog for quite time, what’s ur opnion on monsoon this time around? Skymet is predicting good but IMD isnt

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  50. I think our first squall ts swm may start later this week or early next week, so until then enjoy the humid conditions as this also part of weather

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  52. though the rainfall is not as expected y’day, the positive thing is we had a pleasant evening and night, hope the sultry June passes in this way throughout the month

    Reply

  53. Cherra’s Mindblowing start continues, Meghalaya Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 02.06.2015
    =============================
    A north south trough runs from Bhutan to north Odisha across west Assam, Bangladesh and Gangetic West Bengal extends upto 1.5 km above mean sea level .

    in mm

    Cherrapunji – 181
    Cherrapunji RKM – 124
    Williamnagar – 90
    Mawkyrhat – 47
    Baghmara – 30
    Jowai – 18
    Nongostion – 14
    Rongara – 8
    Shillong – 5

    Kea Weather – http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1354

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

    Reply

  54. Indian Ocean may warm up but too late for monsoon, say global models

    A few models have suggested that the Indian Ocean may be priming for a positive dipole event which can save the monsoon from being totally run over in this manner.
    In the latest update, Jamstec has detected ‘basin-wide warming’ of the Indian Ocean. This means neutral dipole conditions for the time being.It goes on to state that the basin is expected to change into a positive IOD event in late summer and autumn.
    “This evolution is rather late compared to the canonical IOD and we expect the El Nino influence may be more prominent during the summer.” This would goes to suggest that the positive IOD would materialise too late in the day for the Indian monsoon.

    “Of the five international models that monitor the IOD, three suggest a positive IOD event is likely later in the year,” it said, more or less agreeing with the outlook of Jamstec.

    http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/indian-ocean-may-warm-up-but-too-late-for-monsoon-say-global-models/article7275329.ece

    Reply

  55. Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Mr. D S Pai of Met Department said despite the revision, we are not yet staring at a drought. However, since the El Nino conditions have become stronger, a clearer picture will emerge later

    Actually things will depend on after two months whether there are many low pressure systems swarming and some compensation can be made due to the impact of El Nino or the Indian Ocean becoming, there are some forecasts indicating there can be some improved, better conditions in the Indian Ocean. So, all that depends on the middle of the season, but as of now, what we predicted, we still hold.

    Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/met-lowers-monsoon-forecast-to-88-notdrought-case-yet_1397232.html?utm_source=ref_article

    Reply

  57. Karnataka continues to get Pre-monsoon rains, ending 8.30 am on 02.06.2015
    ===============================
    The cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep area and neighbourhood persists and now extends between 1.5 & 5.8 kms a.s.l.

    in mm (min 25 mm)

    Bilekallahalli – 100
    Holesalu – 80
    Siddaianapura – 79
    Melukote – 69
    Koila – 67
    Bajathuru – 64
    Melkote – 63
    Talakadu – 62
    MM Hills – 60
    Kollegal – 60
    Hindisigere – 57
    B.Valagerehalli – 54
    Kikkeri – 54
    Arakere – 50
    Chikkamagaluru – 48
    Krishnarajapet – 47
    Kadawada – 46
    Seelunare – 44
    Akkur Hosahalli – 42
    Dodda Kowalande – 41
    Yelandur – 41
    Kunigal – 40
    Sanivar Santhe – 38
    N.G.Hulkur – 32
    Tirumakudalu Narasipura – 31
    Malavally – 28
    Begur – 26
    Kailancha – 26
    Malavalli – 26
    Dammaningala – 25
    Honakere – 25
    Mirle – 25
    Kodihally – 25
    Chandrashekarapura – 25
    Ramasagar – 25

    Kea Weather – http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1354

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

    Reply

      • Actually there are still some parts of karnataka especially north interior which are arid which needs monsoon.

  59. i have a doubt from the previous topic,
    why was this UAC which moved north is considered weak?
    i supposed it to pass TN/Kerala and enter Arabian Sea.

    Reply

  60. Last UAC i. e. May UAC was far better than this UAC. Because 22mm recorded in two days of time during that UAC period. This UAC just 4mm till now….

    Reply

    • ameen,sorry to say , pls try to keep down ur expectation always so tat u can avoid any disappontment. nothing wrong in getting excited after seeing those model runs but expecting some extraordinary figures will fetch u nothing other than the disappointment. not every UAC will be same ..UAC during nem sounds very very different than the one during swm..

      Reply

  64. Goog chance of TS over surroundings of chennai. If a TS wants to come to chennai mean it should come from NW.
    First earth null img of today 5o clock
    Second earth null img of 8o clock. Today.
    Streeing winds are from NW to SE.
    And good moisture available @ chennai

    Reply

  73. There it chances it might remain as a depression/DD which won’t have a pull as strong as a significant cyclone

    Reply

    • Oh…WD also there, then Gujarat & Pakistan has the chances for LF probability, if they interact in certain angle like 1998-June-Gujarat cyclone (not by face to face).

      Reply

      • WD in June is very harmful for the SWM.
        Incoming WD will result in increased Shear which will lead to weakening of the system.

  79. Low formed near Lakshadweep, rain possible in most parts of Southern dts, in nothern dts rain possible in one or 2 areas – IMD chennai

    Reply

  80. RMC Mumbai-AURORA OBSERVATION DT. 03-06-2015

    YESTERDAY’S UPPER AIR CYCIR OVER LAKSHADWEEP AREA AND NEIGHBORHOOD NOW LIES AS A TROUGH AT MEAN SEA LEVEL OVER THE SAME AREA.IT MAY DEVELOP IN TO LOW PRESSURE AREA DURING NEXT 48 HOURS. YESTERDAY’S EAST-WEST SHEAR ZONE ROUGHLY ALONG LATITUDE 10 DEG NORTH BETWEEN 3.1KM AND 5.8 KM A.S.L NOW LIES BETWEEN 3.1 AND 4.5.
    SOUTHWEST MONSOON MODERATE OVER SOUTH ARABIAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF LAT 6 DEG N.
    WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST ARABIAN SEA.

    Reply

  81. Monsoon Watch – 8.. Quantum….(2nd June 2015)

    Vagaries’ Forecast of Seasonal Monsoon Rains…variations expected +_ 2%.

    Over All June – September All India Rainfall could be 91% of the average normal considered.

    June -September..The Region Wise distribution could be: North West and Central India 91%, Western Region 94%, Southern Peninsula 90% and North East States 88%…of the Normal rainfall.

    June: Overall rains in June for the Country expected to be 88% of the Normal.

    July: North West will be 90%, Western Region will be 94%, Central Region will be 89%, North East India 90% and Southern Peninsula 88%…of the Normal.

    Overall All India for July can be 90% of the Normal July Rains.

    Courtesy: Vagaries of the Weather
    http://www.vagaries.in/

    Reply

  82. All the weather agencies of the world (IMD, ECMWF, JAMSTEC, JMA, APEC, IRI, CFS) showing below normal SWM except Skymet.

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  84. WDs in North India during this time of the year is very rare and very harmful for SWM. So it looks like IMD forecast of SWM may come true.

    Reply

  86. Initial target for arb system remains same.. considering the 200hpa ridge pakistan/ kutch regions is the target as of now.. if tis moves nw or west, it will harm the monsoon flow

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  90. Everyone got initial SWM forecast wrong.. HPA formed at the wrong place at the wrong time!!

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    • It’s good EQUINOO region is warming rapidly, +ve EQUINOO do too good for SWM rains like +ve IOD. Did you notice still nino4 not cooling down???

      Reply

      • Yes that be could be one the reason why models expecting below normal SWM. ( few experts expecting this el nio to turn el nino modoki in coming months.)

      • ” Nino 1 and 2 has already peaked. So its going to look more like a modoki again which is what it tried to do last year before it was destroyed.

        This years is miles ahead of 2009 and thats what will bring it undone. It may peak at 2 but it will be brief IMO. We also lack cold water around OZ so the net effect on our weather will be not much at all.

        In fact during Australian Spring I’m expecting trades to pick up and give us a nice touch up late in the year.” – Anthony Violi from Weatherzone

      • Yes, in the absence of back-up strong WWB (or lack of east ward progression in WWB), there is fair chance to cool nino 1+2 region and warm waters to stay near nino 3.4, nothing but Elnino-Modoki.

  92. No need to be panic about +ve IOD during NEM-2015. Elnino coupled with +ve IOD give nice continuous easterly waves/LPAs, which can give excess NEM-2015 season.

    Reply

      • In real sense August & September months mimic 50:50 SWM & NEM in behavior. So August & September are likely to be effected by +ve IOD more than June & JULY during SWM season.

      • Sir +iod will not give copious rain to chennai know sir in swm

    • Sir y +ve iod in swm doesn’t give good rain to chennai and y it gives more rain to chennai in nem

      Reply

  94. Today once again interior region going to get good rain and in terms of chennai we are going to be asusual spectators

    Reply

      • yes, we need winds to streamline and once SWM sets in we’ll see regular popup’s over vellore region which move west and collides with sea breeze and we get to see some intense TS during from June-Sep.

      • Already interior north tamilnadu and interior south tamilnadu get close to 50 cm from jan1 to june 2

      • Yes the winds has to be perfect westerlies for us to get good intense rains hope it happens soon

  96. arabian sea cyclone may spoil rainfall activity over west coast……esp ( karnataka, maharastra)

    Reply

    • where is the cyclone.. has it formed yet? I think a low has just emerged near laskwdeep

      Reply

    • It will delay SW Monsoon by a week to 10 days if cyclone is going to form by pulling all Moisture and if it goes to Pakistan then it will be worst ever June SWM!

      Reply

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