The UAC has moved north and got weakened all these activity happened suddenly in the evening and this shift means the heavy rains expected in Chennai will not be as heavy as envisaged previously. There is good chance for moderate rains in Chennai. The weakened UAC seen below –
UAC expected to move South / East
The UAC will not fizzle out as expected by many including ECMWF. Instead it detaches from the steering of the HPA in BoB and is steered back to East / South AP by tomorrow night under the influence of North westerly – Southerly direction.
Chennai Rains : Its been one of the tricky system. Everyone had forecasted rains including IMD, other blogs, ECMWF for tomorrow. Now most of them dont expect the UAC to be steerdown back to South AP / North TN coast and therby taken the rains forecasted in Chennai. ECMWF takes it to north AP and it makes the UAC fizzles out.
Our view : Let us stick to what we believe and it will rain in Chennai tomorrow with UAC expected to shift back again near South AP coast. If not there is something called “Tomorrow”.
Note: This forecast may completely fail, in case the UAC moves directly up into North AP Coast as predicted by ECMWF.
KeaWeather Archives 
UAC and the nature has;the final calll – it is really depressing – the relentless assessment by the various experts has gone for a toss – Cheer up guys – rao,GTS, selvan,susa, ameen – it is difficult to post all the hardworking souls Kea is a great site – am a silent observer though..
Experts can’t rule Nature…. Also there is no experts to predict Nature accurately…..
Everyone is a learner here….
I have been silent observer for years and blog occasionally..Nature has the final shot. It’s always on safer side not to expect too much than get disappointed..Hope mother nature never betrays us. I feel rains are not far away. With onset of SWM hope we catch some intense TS from west. We have been relentlessly waiting for months to see good rainfall over chennai..Hope it happens soon..Cheers.
Again tricky systema?too much of hype
Oh no. Radar absolutely clear
once again nature deceived Chennai I think 😦 but it looks this UAC won’t die out that much easily. need to watch carefully.
I dont think nature has deceived, we were searching for a black cat in a dark room which was not there
ha…ha..
If there is anything in the sky it will show .Sky is clear what is there to show
rain-bands reappearing around NAP-UAC
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/satellite/Asia/India/Infraredcolor.htm
OMG…shear abnormally increased over BOB. UAC game show over in BOB 😦
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=sht&zoom=&time=
can anyone believe the favorable shear will become all of sudden “unfavorable shear”? how nicely wind-shear at its lowest value just 24 hrs back.
wind-shear:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=shr&zoom=&time=-7
shear-tendency:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=sht&zoom=&time=-7
but I understood why shear has become all of sudden unfavorable. I will give nice explanation just later.
whenever east-pacific ocean is in very active status with hurricanes (1 is cat.3 & 2nd one TS), then BOB-systems will face death-blow 😦
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic.php
Today CHENNAI rains are possible after 5pm and may be around 8pm or after…
may be full moon effect on uac
at present 2 systems brewing over there. actually all tropical weather will come under same cycle that is “Hadley cycle” Pacific ocean related sub-circulation is “walker circulation”. which is directly related ENSO.
active east-pacific hurricanes will do harm by 2 means.
1. east-pacific hurricanes is indicative of Elnino-strength, so walker circulation will be more towards east-pacific.
2. active east-pacific hurricanes means, regular elnino will become temporarily elnino-modoki (by the phenomenon of cooling Nino 1+2 SST relatively to nino 3.4 by removal of moisture over there)
It is well documented in literature, Elnino-modoki will enhance system formation over Arabian than BOB. Reason is so simple: the descending limb of walker-circulation will be right-over west-pacific & adjoining BOB.
application of above principle to present UAC:
2 back to back east-pacific hurricanes means, Classical Elnino temporarily turned to non-classical Elnino-modoki. hence descending limb of walker circulation right-over BOB. Hence increase in Shear-value and sudden weakening od UAC.
Note:
1. Consequences of pressure gradients are spontaneous when compared to consequences related to SST-gradient.
2. Will try to explain based on MJO & SOI after receiving today’s BoM-SOI
CIMSS-home page: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Typical hot days ahead… If uac fails as mentioned
UAC not failed… Just the cloud bands are dissipated… It will organize soon….
I feel temp won’t cross 35+
According to me…. If chennai doesn’t gets anything its a failure of uac….already I have mentioned with “if”
What to do ?
U always becomes / comes with if’s. ????
Chennai to stay cool -IMD Deccan Chronicle
did they say this a bit too early?
May be they are also like us saying UAC Chennai rain, 100mm and all
High risk of predicting rains for CHENNAI, some of the charts showing good rains over west of CHENNAI at 5.30 and 8.30 pm updates…
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 June 2015 srs.gs/sDx
Tirupati…
MAX : 37°C
MIN:31°C
……
Nellore…
MAX:37°C
MIN:30°C
Hi sai good morning
Due to influence of HPA outer bands UAC weakened but soon its going to relocate and convection to be replaced for Rains in Chennai.
Record cold highs were set today in New England. Find out how long the chill will last: wxch.nl/1Jl3hAM
Ooty 10c at 7 no Rains Night So cold is more…now bit cloudy… expecting more showers…
Hmm
The rains bands and UAC is expected to come close only by Night. So dont fuzz about rains in the morning.
There will be definitely some widespread rainfall activity starting tonight.
the UAC has not lost. It has just moved up. It will be steered down.
Oh ..
But y thr is no rain bands?
New Development of Cloud band is started to form and two convection placed to the east of nellore is going to converge.
Rainfall in first week of June itself is a rarity. You should be happy that some areas got some light rain yesterday.
Rain bands SE of machilli
UAC now – http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/700hPa/orthographic=-281.89,13.72,2048
The UAC is going to creat wind confluence near Chennai – http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/06/02/1500Z/wind/isobaric/700hPa/orthographic=-281.89,13.72,2048
bang on
Tirupati 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Heavy rain (total 153mm), heaviest during Tue night. Warm (max 36°C on Tue afternoon, min 27°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light. Is this going to happen guyzz??
Nothing is lost till night. Expect rains too. All i can see is dejected comments. We have to understand the fact it moved up. Its beyond our control. The 700 hpa clearly shows why it is moving back toChennai in a day or two. No more posts. Please dont flood the blog with negative comments.
Good chances after 5pm for us…..Rainbands will come from North or NW
Gfs meteogram
4 day cola
http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/ezindia.s.html
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/satellite/Asia/India/Infraredcolor.htm
It’s raining in Salem!
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/salem-or/97301/weather-radar/330144
so this UAC finally proven to be unqualified air circulation. I have no hopes on it. atleast monsoon has set over kerala in full speed.
No…rains there for ud
OMG….SOI increased by 1.6 points per 24hrs. This is biggest gain in months time. Now I understood about UAC sudden jump towards north and might have bombarded the ridge and got weakened. SOI’s sudden increase may not be good for a system to strengthen. Hope it will recover slowly. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt
MJSOI model clearly states this phenomenon.
Sir, but what about its convection??? It may strength again
Yes
Definitely rain bands ll back for us….surely by evening some activity expected to form
Over cast sky is forming….rainfall symptoms is on full swing
Chances for a good spell of rain starts from today evening till 5th early morning. Quantam of rainfall depends on the wind direction on the given day. My guess is western suburbs will get the maximum.
Good Morning,
When i wake up today morning and saw outside and realised that there was not even drizzle last night, then i know that bloggers will come up with negative comments, as expected we could see that flown today morning. This is very much common. However we need to realise one thing that predicting UAC is very much tougher than predicting a Cyclone. UAC can shift places in a giffy. We are forecasting based on some of the forecasting models and the conditions available, but i would still insist bloggers not to get disappointed since the UAC has not died, hope it will move towards us to some extent from tonight.
Yesterday evening i made a comment saying that we will get some passing showers last night and good rainfall expected from today afternoon or evening, still i would say at least by tonight we will get rainfall. I also request you people not to give the quantum, we have said this several times, we saw that some of us saying 100 MM, but don’t do this in future, you can say that there will be a light rain or moderate rain or heavy rain or very heavy rain. Since you are saying the quantum, it raises the expectation of bloggers and some of them might say it outside, this will surely get us the bad name. Please avoid it henceforth.
Getting rainfall in June itself is big task, but this summer we had lesser amount of heatness in terms of averages and now good cool start to June, this itself is bigger for us but again i would not rule out rain in next 24 hours.
Also we have SWM around the corner, there wont be a demand for moisture incursion, hence we are still having chances and till tonight we can expect some showers for sure.
Dont forget this is an ELNINO year, i already gave the forecast in April saying May will be cooler than average temp, but June will be hotter than normal, hence lets have patience towards rain and remember this is not NEM season.
Even ELNINO comes with Positive IOD this June, we had above normal rains in June 1997, even though we had lesser than normal rains from June to September that year. The same phenomenon is raising now, that is why i always compare 2015 ELNINO year with 1997. We have good month ahead even though it is going to be hotter June.
Even though it is risky forecasting rains for Chennai, i would love to do it.
Nice para
Very true partha
From July onwards we can expect less rainfall in chennai
In NEM EXCESS
Yes this year might be NEM year!
Paartha, Very good, you have diligently followed the Exam paper instructions which was put up yesterday. Your post is under consideration n may be , may be…keatured…
IMD – WRF Forecast
IMD – GFS Forecast
Today morning in my house there were black ants which are grouping and was carrying food in its mouth and shifting its house, before i could take a pic it vanished, they shift with food before rainy season begins. Last year i shared a pic of the same incident.
Hence rain is not far away from us….
Cloud clusters fill in the entire southern Arabian Sea , along with equatorial Indian Ocean ….
Good sign!!
Yeah also did u look at the setting up of a trough like flow along the same region ….guess these cloud clusters are similar to the flow ….
Long Range Forecast, which has been already posted, to recollect it… only June month looks favorable for Rains, Dry Periods are expected during July, Aug, Sep
June Month
July Month
August Month
September Month
Only thing is forecast shows some rains are there for our City
Below normal SWM for Chennai
Comparing other areas CHENNAI looks something better
June 2 ..tis day was expected highly by ss group for electric storms. dashman, we r waiting to see the action in south Chennai.
😀 😀 Lol …
Namma dash is in a state of Electric shock seeing a crystal clear radar..
Satellite Image
I remember posting here in the blog few day’s back saying gfs forecasting 43 degree for Chennai on june 1st.. ethu thaan gfs correct ah solluthu?
GFS would have more wrong forecasts in its archive …one can use them for what not to be used in dynamic weather forecasting and prediction …
Lots of errors in it
Errors archive …..very much needed one …
Moreover since its upgrade, it has got worse
Yea ..let’s keep them aside And lookout for storms from west ..
Nammaku VS storms dhaane soru podum June la perum baalum…
Yeah,for next 3 months .
Lord Vishnu gives us rains.swm is not for us.only nem is for us.
how can we expect SWM rains, when SWM itself has not set in?
Swm is overtaking nem for last few years….please verify rainfall figures
i had been to Annur on the Mettupalayam- coimbatore stretch last couple of days. It was scortching heat in the mrg, but late night for 2 hrs rains lashed like hell with severe thunderstorms and disco lightening.. pleasant morning yesterday and on the way back to chennai, light rains near tindivanam and chengalpet. chennai is much cooler compared to last week.. hope UAC changes mind and path to reach chennai tonight and bang. one big shower is enough to keep city cool for a day.
Wish all bloggers learn from our very own Novak Nole. Rain or shine life goes on. Does not complain about anything. Never gets disappointed when a TS misses his area.
Yes KEA, that is why i am a very big fan of him, he is also a perfect team man among KEA members.
I wish tis post to get featured… one of the big fan of him..he strictly bind by the climatology .
Yes ….surely …observations speak a lot ….
Ayyo, indha postla edho ull artham irrukumo…Evaru enna solla varaaru…Puriyaleye…BTW Kea, Agumbe is starving actually. Nothing nothing meaningful so far this year…As usual, we will wait, we will wait…As Sun spot 15 always says, let the SWM rains touch coastal Karnataka, I feel we stand a better chance…
The UAC in the Arabian sea is hastening the disturbed monsoons..???
He travels a lot. Think thats his nature of work. So he doesn’t need to worry about weather.
Even though it rains heavily in Novak’s area, if that time he is out of station even then he enjoy’s, that is the real spirit i could see in him…
Y swm delay in kerela bccoz of uac?
Not bcos of UAC.. I feel it got disturbed bcuz of tat mid level high pressure area in east central arb sea.
Monsoon vigrous over karnataka this weekend
What about Kerala then? Any by pass route to Karnataka?
Nothing specific….
Meaning? It has to shower across Kerala n then to coastal Karnataka..
Nothing Significant Rains for Kerala…. It may register one of the lowest record for kerala this year
Yes it looks like it skipped Kerala ….as Kerala has recieved plenty of premonsoon rains
Skipping Kerala?? Nah nah..how can it happen?
Bye-Pass Lane laid by El Nino
That’s what happening now… If you see rainfall figures of karnataka and kerala you get to know
Finally u won
Are the rainfall figures of Karnataka happening due to SWM onset rains or is it just pre Monsoon showers?
We want rains in wayanad in kerala and karnataka so that we get good inflow to meetur dam
Clear and windy here. Last 2 days thunderstorms formed towards evening but moved away. Only drizzles.
Kodai 23 mm today.
From tomorrow at-least we get veppa salanam rains
Veppa Salanam??.. What do you mean.. there is a UAC in BOB.
It has weakened and moved north
Another one coming from andaman
Current UAC itself, struggling to give us rains, then how come we expect the rain from next ….
Lets focus on the current UAC and learn what & why – its behave like this, before jumping to next one …..
Yes but many experts are expecting it to recurve to SW.. So if that happens we may get rain tomo or else there will be only sunshine. No question of VS rains here
Intensity of convection lost
34.4°C
Trend(Last 5 Minute) : 4.08°C/hr
Max.(Since 8:30AM) : 34.4°C
Min.(Since 8:30AM) : 30.3°C
Omg..hope so today it won’t go beyond 38
When can we expect rain in Chennai from this system…
If we have luck, then we will get rains after 5pm today
yes and if no luck we can say bye bye to this UAC
I have a feel / confident of still we have luck to get the rains today evening
IN dreams
What will u do, if we get rains today after 5pm
mottai aduchukiran
Good, Get ready
Kadavulae en thalaya kappathu
Lol
chances are there today evening
Predicting rain in chennai in unsynoptic way is a brave task
Thats true
I like your statement & we are expecting
Already lot of catch up to do for Nunga.
Normal for Jan – May period – 98.6 mm
Rainfall received – 23.2 mm
Deficit – 75.4 mm
Normal for June is 76.2 mm. Will the deficit increase or decrease at the end of this month?
Normal for June is 57MM as per government web site…
can you give me the link? My info was from IMD only. But they keep changing their data often
http://www.tn.gov.in/crop/Part3_1.htm
One cloud burst kind of TS will do it. But we will have to wait i guess
If we speak about nunga means definitely deficient only
And if we talk about meena it has already got surplus
Yes s chennai was lucky to get rain in April which was a mini cloud burst
Even in may there was couple of 20-30mm kind of rains
No only sw suburbs got some rain in may but s coastal area was left badly
My area got some decent rains though
Nunga mean then deficit only
another twist in the tale:
The Pune based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology’s (IITM) extended range prediction on Monday said that monsoon may hit Kerala on June 2 or 3, which is sooner than most thought. The IITM said the rains may arrive in a day or two under the influence of a low pressure system developing over the southern tip of peninsula. The institute also attributed the weak activity till June 11 to the movement of low pressure system towards the Oman coast instead of India.
“The activity looks weak till June 11, and by June 24, southwest monsoon is likely to cover most parts of the country, except west Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and parts of Gujarat region,” the scientist said.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/pune/Monsoon-may-hit-Kerala-coast-today/articleshow/47508230.cms
Guys i am ajuravi….logged in through my gmail hence its displaying my full name…Hope you guys remember me…I follow you guys often even though i dont post in this blog…
Welcome to kea and where are you from
From Chennai…residing in Vadapalani and working in Thoraipakkam….
Yeah I remember .. welcome friend!
Kea,
The long para which i posted today morning is coming at the top when i refresh the page, is it an error?
Even i face that issue sometimes in mobile.. Old messages will come at the top from nowhere
Sign out and sign in partha
by default it should be sort by Newest. Can you check if you accidently changed it to best or oldest?
All 124-forecasts made by CFSv2 for May … ENSO indices
Cyclone in Arb sea…Gfs updated ..Skirting towards west coastal areas of india..then to gujarat & to pakis..
It’s showing lot of skirting but nothing materialize
Cherrapunji 18 cm today. So far 266 cm this year.
that is Chennai’s 2 year quota and the season is just beginning for them
Yes. Its going to rock in monsoon too.
if it rains daily/continuously also ..it will be boring..Tracking will be interested in occasional rains.. esp..the VS TS..
Vela sir you mean this will move in SW direction and give rains to chennai
No it will give less rain only
No SW movement… It already moved near Machili Latitude
How will it give rain
From outer Bands / new TS popups will form North / North West of Chennai
Its Kanyakumari again to get widespread rains, Tamil Nadu Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 01.06.2015
===================================
The upper air cyclonic circulation over southwest Bay of Bengal off north Tamilnadu coast now lies over west central and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal off south Andhra Pradesh coast between 2.1 km to 3.6 km above mean sea level. Hail storm was repored in Krishnagiri and Kodaikanal district.
in mm (min 15 mm)
Pechiparai – 75
Avinasi – 71
Pegumbahallah – 66
Pillur – 55
Colachel – 52
Kaundampadi – 50
Vedasandur – 48
Nangavalli – 48
Coonoor – 47
Karamadai – 45
Mettupalayam – 40
Coonoor Pto – 40
Tirupuvanam – 38
Chittar II – 37
Adayamadai – 36
Sathyamangalam – 36
Chittar I – 36
Pochampalli – 33
Annur – 32
Kalasapakkam – 31
Yercaud – 31
Perundurai – 30
Palaviduthi – 30
Bhavanisagar – 30
Barur – 28
Salem – 26
Mullangivilai – 26
Kumarapalayam – 26
Periyakulam – 26
Ammapet – 25
Chengam – 24
Kulasekahram – 23
Periyanaickenpalayam – 22
Natrampalli – 21
Puthen Dam – 21
Perunchani – 21
Bhavani – 20
Mecheri – 20
Nagercoil – 20
Olapalayam – 20
Thiruparappu – 19
Pappireddipatti – 19
Jolarpet – 18
Musiri – 18
Ketti – 17
Palacode – 17
K bridge – 16
Uthagamandalam – 16
Vaiyampatty – 16
Balmore – 15
Kea Weather – http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1351
Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/2015-tamil-nadu-rainfall-data.html
Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman
Interiors and south tamilnadu rocks
Yes dinagar. Record rains in april and may month’s.
Pj,What abt the kerala stations? Were they increasing ?
just click the india rainfall on top of the page sel.
you told sure rain for chennai on monday
Pls don’t point finger at anyone. Weather systems don’t follow a standard route. They keep changing every day.
few things r not in our control…we all have to understand that nature is superior than all of us…
Season’s first named tropical storm Andres has now strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane in the eastern Pacific. On Sunday night, Andres had maximum sustained winds of 220 kmph. By the time it reaches the open waters of the East Pacific, which is relatively cooler, it will start weakening.
The Category 4 hurricane is far away from the landmass and is expected to gradually weaken as it moves forward. Andres is expected to remain in the sea for another 48 hours and will start decaying thereafter. In the next 24 hours, it is expected to become a Category 3 hurricane. Furthermore, it will then weaken into a Category 2 hurricane. In the next 4 days, it will become insignificant.
Meanwhile, another tropical depression Two-E has been formed nearly 400 miles off the coast of the Mexican Riviera. The tropical depression has the potential to become a tropical storm. Once it converts into a tropical storm, it will receive the name, Blanca.
In the next 24 hours, the depression will gain strength. Furthermore, it may become a Category 3 hurricane. However, the storm will not be a threat to life or property. As it gains momentum, it will keep moving away from the coas
– See more at: http://www.skymetweather.com/content/global-news/hurricane-andres-continues-to-weaken-another-tropical-depression-brewing-in-east-pacific/#sthash.fYAUSMK6.dpuf
Comparing 2015 with 1997
In 1997 May IOD was 0.49 and increased to 1.02 in June.
In 2015 May IOD was 0.42, almost similar.
In 1997 May ELNINO was 1.2 C.
In 2015 May ELNINO was 1.1 C.
In 1997 the SST was above average over Central and East Equatorial Pacific, the same thing happening now also, the West Pacific above average SST is reducing as per latest SST Anomaly map.
In 1997 MJO emerged in Phase 1 by June 12th and stayed there till June 15th and emerged in Phase 2 by June 16th, there might be a delayed onset of SWM in Kerala that year, not sure about it. In 2015 MJO likely to emerge in Phase 1 by today and in Phase 2 by 04th.
During 1997 June, Chennai got around 75MM, this is above average for the month, normal is 57MM, but we got below normal rainfall through out SWM season. NEM was excess.
Since the values are same we might get above normal rainfall this month and below normal from July to September. NEM will surplus this time going by the values.
Rains give respite from heat wave in many states http://fb.me/6zggxp5ND
Friends, Seeing the comments yesterday and today and summarize.. PJ, Rao and few others analyzed few parameters based on HPA / UAC and various charts and explained clearly why they expected rains. They were so confident about their theory and mingling with their experience, they had informed that it will rain this week.
It so happened that the UAC moved to North than the expected path.. which comes under the probability theory. Now that it has moved away, we obviously saw clear skies with sunshine from early morning.This has been explained too in the posts below.
Now, showing frustration and asking if the theory failed leads to no where. It is all in the learning curve. Instead, let us all try to understand these concepts and analyse by ourselves and debate over how this actually happens. By doing that, we could evolve better as a team.
Rain or shine – let us aim to understand nature better and even after 50 years – may be with 100’s of super computers, nature will win again. That’s for sure.
nature will win again, rightly said, nature will always win
Wow wow, Shabassh …SPZ..So some thing needs to trigger you …as always precise, consice and only the truth..Bare truth…
Reduce 1 from the count u and gaje maintain.. 🙂
very true..even after 50 years , nature will win
In simple Terms
Y it is not raining based on forecast . . . . . . .
Forecast in the man made one…. this shows us, that v are not equipped / technically good to forecast Nature
Very well written. Honestly and personally neither I am disappointed or otherwise, but somehow I felt last few days – this is my personal view – right from the models to forecasting – there was no confidence -even for those who projected it – This is what I felt – could be in their own back of their mind they must have felt this time nature can play a truant – most of the time I would say 90% and above – Kea Forecast have been the best – confidence level were very high and technically very sound in their approach and they have set highest standards – keeping that mind let us move on – we have hectic SWM ahead with us and not to get bogged down as how it has happened etc.
Top 5 as per IMD chennai so far,
Kodai 54 cm
Uthagamandalam 43 cm
Salem 38 cm
Madurai ap 37 cm
Pamban and tondi 32 cm
evening TS cannot be ruled out and weekend rains on the cards for Chennai from Friday late evening hopefully.
Good chance of evening ts today and tomo
precipitation level going to be higher from frday.. for N.Chennai and south interior.
Now which direction uac moving?
I am kind of feeling that , UAC will continue to move North and probably fizzle out, but this should have aided the SW monsoon pull and monsoon should set in by tomorrow or day after. IF that happens, we can expect TS by Week-end for sure.
Uac not at all weakened. vorticity @ 500,700 hpa level not weakened how it weakened?. only it lost clouds and went north. it is likely to move SW towards chennai as said by pj sir. and after coming close it will organize its own super rain bands as it comes out of hpa effect.
Thanx ameenu for the positive cmnt hope uac takes sw direction. Soon;-)
Can we analyze ?
1. What made the UAC go north ?
2. Why do you think the UAC will come back SW to chennai lat.
posted
Shankar,
Why it moved up
This is the reasoning the UAC was steered north along the ridge line of the HPA in 500 HPA as u can see in the mid level steering, the HPA over Central India hardly has any steering winds and it is very weak. U can also see the wind confluencing point where the rains are going to form depending on the moisture level – http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-279.90,12.31,2048
and why it ia going to come down? any reason?
Its has to be steered by the northwesterly winds once it detaches / weakens in the 500 hpa level. the 700 hpa winds willl steer it. Today – http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/06/02/1500Z/wind/isobaric/700hPa/orthographic=-280.97,12.67,2048.
Tomorrow – http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/06/03/1200Z/wind/isobaric/700hPa/orthographic=-280.97,12.67,2048 It gets elongated after that as a weak circulation / trough and moves in land.
any chance of rain ameen to night for chennai
But PJ, in general the steering will always be to north east from May 25th right.. (i say 25 because i used to see rains in 90’s exactly from 26th early morning in bhatkal).
steering depends on the ridge. Normally, there wont be a HPA in Bay at this time.
Near equatorial ridge. Or a gyre near equator enhances the cross equatorial flow.normally tat steers the convection twrds northeast in bay
Good observation
Guys,
One thing to clear all of you,
UAC cannot trigger SWM onset, UAC is at upper level above 3.0KM from sea level, but SWM winds are monsoonal winds which will carry moisture so cannot climb to higher levels, max it would be from surface to 3.0KM level only.
Hence there is no relationship between UAC and SWM winds trigerring, both are different.
Got it. Thanks Partha
No Partha , SWM winds upto 600 hPa(app. 4km) is a normal characteristic of Monsoon winds …..This is what that makes the Indian Monsoons more special ….
But rite UAC has no effect on onset though ….
but i have seen winds at 700 HPA does not replicate the lower levels??
but y one of the the rule for SWM onset is ” depth of westerlies should be maintained at 600 hpa “
that is not right, i will say that upto 700 to some extent i will agree, but i have seen many times that above 3KM the wind pattern is totally different, there is much influence of 500 HPA – at 700 HPA level.
hmm…ok
High chances for thunderstorms to Pop out in the interiors by afternoon/evening.
Pj sir said Nothing is lost till night. Expect rains too. All i can see is dejected comments. We have to understand the fact it moved up. Its beyond our control. The 700 hpa clearly shows why it is moving back toChennai in a day or two. No more posts. Please dont flood the blog with negative comments.
SO DON’T LOST HOPE
i have hope on the wind confluence. And the moisture to be pumped in by the UAC. Wont lose hope.
Rh value over chennai is moderate to good today and hence we need only Popups to form towards nw of us to get rain in the evening
Today we can witness, TS will popup towards North, South, West and East of Chennai – Get ready to watch the radar
but you said it will not rain
drilling starts
Now also i have not said TS will form over chennai……
North east west and south of Chennai. and all moving away?
Wait and watch today, it will be interesting
lol
Veppa Salanam ?
No…. Effect of UAC
So rain feast only for chennai
I would rather tell that predicting rain for other places are easy when compared to chennai, predicting rains here is a very high task for even for experts so guys don’t blame any of our blogger or experts
Bcoz chn in bermuda triangle 😛
There’s no such thing as Bermuda triangle
The great circle of fire……… (100km radius of chennai in radar)…would be better
No not that like that, but we must analyse that why chennai always misses out
yes daunting task. even when models show 100 mm we dont get anything. when models show 0 mm we get 100 mm. It happened in April
Yes sir for predicting rains here means we have to study deeply about our weather conditions I think
may be some thing to do with location…
Vaasthu Seri ellai
Lol:-P
ha ha 🙂
I feel closer to Sea, urban area and geographic location makes it an island to be studied more.
yes, that’s why Imd chennai on most times maintains Chennai will be cloudy and rain possible in one or two places
Another twist in the tale
or another twist in the tail 🙂
Who knows only nature knows
IST 11.30am Update
Any popups forming NW of Chennai today will move towards us
Surely it will form….
Dry and Moist Air Collision over South Coast AP and North Coastal TN at 700 HPA
This will create more moisture in our atmosphere, more POPUPS expected over SAP and NTN by this afternoon.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/700hPa/overlay=relative_humidity/orthographic=-278.69,12.63,2066
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/06/02/0900Z/wind/isobaric/700hPa/overlay=relative_humidity/orthographic=-278.69,12.63,2066
Convergence happening at chennai latitude? Then we can surely say that atleast drizzle possible
94b:-)
Hosur 6 cm. Aditya. U were right.
East of machilli
It has developed into a low?? 😮
Not yet…. it hasn’t descended to 850hpa
I think theres nothing there now to bring meaningful rains here in and around Chennai, The UAC missed Chennai but happy it brought rains to the interiors.
Tropical storm blanca is intensifying
Hurricane andres losing intensitiy
It will weaken rapidly in the cooler waters.
Image loop
the uac will bring rain towards SAP nad NTN
Waiting for the pop pups
me too @disqus_XyJ7QmXaf4:disqus
this was telling every day but chennai does not get any rain
why are u telling like That. can u explain sir
If you take IMD, starting from June 01st to September 30th every day in news paper they say, thunderstorms expected during evening/night. This will be repetitive for this four months for Chennai.
If you take KEA page, you will not see the forecast like that.
It will be only on a specific day, it is pre SWM rains, hence it is challenging.
a hot sunny day in tirupati….so much humid conditions…waiting for rains
The upper air cyclonic circulation over westcentral and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal off south Andhra Pradesh coast now lies over westcentral Bay of Bengal off Andhra Pradesh coast between 3.1 km to 5.8 km above mean sea level.
EastWest shear zone lies roughly along Latitude 10°N between 3.1 km to 5.8 km above mean sealevel
Click to access Inference.pdf