The UAC has moved north and got weakened all these activity happened suddenly in the evening and this shift means the heavy rains expected in Chennai will not be as heavy as envisaged previously. There is good chance for moderate rains in Chennai. The weakened UAC seen below –
UAC expected to move South / East
The UAC will not fizzle out as expected by many including ECMWF. Instead it detaches from the steering of the HPA in BoB and is steered back to East / South AP by tomorrow night under the influence of North westerly – Southerly direction.
Chennai Rains : Its been one of the tricky system. Everyone had forecasted rains including IMD, other blogs, ECMWF for tomorrow. Now most of them dont expect the UAC to be steerdown back to South AP / North TN coast and therby taken the rains forecasted in Chennai. ECMWF takes it to north AP and it makes the UAC fizzles out.
Our view : Let us stick to what we believe and it will rain in Chennai tomorrow with UAC expected to shift back again near South AP coast. If not there is something called “Tomorrow”.
Note: This forecast may completely fail, in case the UAC moves directly up into North AP Coast as predicted by ECMWF.