Hope Nature doesn’t deceive Chennai’s rainfall probability this time with nearing UAC!!!

Classical explanation:

At last BOB-UAC coming close to the NTN & SAP coasts. So tomorrow onwards rainfall activity with overcast conditions along the coastal NTN & SAP will increase gradually. However this UAC may not be descending to lower-level, which is evident from weak 850 hpa level vorticity & stream lines (Figures 1 & 2). This UAC will start entering Arabian ocean by travelling across TN after June 4th. Overall in-between June 2nd & 4th, rainfall activity along NTN-CTN & SAP coasts will peak and expect some decent rainfall.

Figure 1 (850 hpa vorticity):

Figure 2: 850 hpa stream lines:

Non-classical explanation:

The recent increase in SOI & IOD values given life in the form increasing moisture filled trade winds thus stability of present BOB-UAC for longer time. However SOI started again falling down as per lasts values (decreased by 0.5 points). So present BOB-UAC may not strengthen to LPA and will enter Arabian ocean, where it will be getting good MJO-support in phase 1 to strengthen beyond LPA along the west-coast.
MJO: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/
SOI: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt
IOD: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/iod_1.txt

Future direction:

From the present BOB-UAC there is fair chance of decent rains along coastal NTN & SAP between June 1 & 4.
However we need to focus on next BOB-UAC (can become rain-bearing strong system) for NTN & AP by June 2nd week under the support of strong MJO entering in phase 2.

Conclusion: Expecting this June month rainfall over Chennai will end up in historical note in similar view with PJ.

Topic courtesy: Rsrao

1,649 thoughts on “Hope Nature doesn’t deceive Chennai’s rainfall probability this time with nearing UAC!!!

  1. One of the strongest thunderstorms i have ever witnessed in Jersey City,NJ.. Its pouring cats and dogs for the last 1 hour with no signs of relenting

  2. Pre-monsoon showers relentlessly lashed the city on Sunday evening bringing down trees and electric poles
    Showing no signs of abating, two rounds of pre-monsoon showers relentlessly lashed the IT city on Sunday evening, bringing down several trees and electric poles and causing chaos and traffic snarls in the silicon valley.
    An hour-long shower interspersed with heavy winds and lightning around 4.30 pm along with a second, less intense bout of rain around 8 pm not only brought down more than 30 trees in various parts of the city, but also uprooted numerous electric poles, resulting in sudden power cuts. Motorists had a tough time wading through knee-deep water on several busy streets in the CBD and eastern parts of the city.
    Giving an effect of late evening, thick, dark clouds swirled around the sky and engulfed Bengaluru as early as 3.30 in the afternoon, bursting into showers and pouring across the city a short while later. These were accompanied by billowing winds that sent the clouds scudding and pedestrians scurrying for cover.
    In less than an hour, a huge tree near MG Road’s Anil Kumble circle fell on to the bustling road disrupting traffic. Traffic on Lavelle road was diverted as well after an electric pole and a tree fell across the road, with wires dangling dangerously.
    Entry to Lavelle Road was blocked for commuters approaching from Richmond Road, and Lavelle Road itself remained impassable until traffic policemen and BBMP personnel arrived to clear the debris. Power to the areas where electric poles had fallen had to be cut immediately to ensure no untoward incidents could take place.
    Officials from the Regional Meteorological Observatory told Bangalore Mirror that the city received 15.6 mm rainfall till 8:30 pm, while HAL airport witnessed 27 mm rainfall. Sources in the BBMP revealed that as many as 25 trees were uprooted in Yelahanka sub-division alone, with nearly six electric poles and trees having been reported as fallen in Yelahanka old town’s Maruthinagar.
    Meanwhile, Vidyaranyapura, Chokkasandra, Jalahalli Cross, Gangamma Circle, and Neelasandra also reported a number of uprooted trees due to the heavy wind. A tree reportedly collapsed on top of a house near the Renukamba temple at Nanjappa Circle in Vidyaranyapura, but nobody was injured as the house was empty at the time of the incident.
    While 39 electric poles fell in north Bengaluru, areas in and around Yelahanka slipped into darkness for more than an hour on Sunday. The Yelahanka-Doddaballapur road was clogged with four to five feet of water, and several two- and four-wheelers were damaged due to trees and electric poles that fell on them in the rain.

  3. Mr.Rao, Chances of rain to NTN till the 2nd week of June well explained from a layman point and also technically and hopefully nature listens to these words from you and gives record breaking rains.

  4. Wowooi Wonderful Rains Yesterday Night Here(Ooty)…Temp 13 c Now at 7 AM…It Started At 12 and Ended at 2 AM in the Night…Loud Thunders And Lightning In The Night I Went Out To Take Pics But Couldn’t Take it Still Drrizling and Overcast Skies…
    On The Way Trivandrum….

  5. Well explained topic by RSR.The surging TS fom the sea has already heralded a cloudy pleasant morning in chennai

  6. Rami Rao..Pleased as a punch for you. Nicely drafted topic. What a way for things to start. June 1st..Effectively start of SWM season for India…I mean the timing of your debut topic..Couldn’t have been better..Kudos.

  7. looks like rainfall activity peaking on june 3rd, where 850 hpa also showing CC right over Chennai according to GFS.

  8. Great topic Rao ji ! πŸ™‚ Clear representation of the current UAC and the upcoming One.
    Great job!

  9. Huge TS 150kms east of chennai!!!
    High chances for S.chennai upto pondy to get these rains if it doesn’t weaken.

  10. Rao, congrats for the great topic and 1st topic. I have not lost confidence. Rao. I am always for rains.

  11. The June 2nd, 3rd rains should make many non UAC believers to take back seat – Mouli, Vela, Raijin. All doubt UAC rains.

  12. Aiyoo so many Kids expecting rains from the big ball. Atleast for them it should rains. Hope the TS takes own course and not the circulation. I dont have the heart to say it wont. The new storms poping north.

  13. Desperately wish Rao’s topic come true we are literally on verge of buying water after 9 months today

      • It’s amplitude 2 and phase 1. But this UAC descending to 850 Hpa level on 3rd morning, so nothing but LPA right over chennai. So rainfall intensity will be more on tomorrow late night/3rd early morning.

  14. Great start to june.
    Cold morning with great cloud cover πŸ™‚
    Looks like a typical NEM morning after a hot May month.

  15. N.Coastal TN & S.Coastal AP in for good Rains.
    Some moderate to heavy spell will start in next 24hrs.

  16. Rami,

    MJO emerging into Phase 1 closer to Phase 2, hence we can expect MJO by 03rd over Phase 2, the upper level winds too indicate the same, as i was watching for the past 4 days, the upper level winds velocity is increasing and becoming more active nowadays.

    Depending on above conditions, SWM onset over Kerala likely in next 48 to 72 hours time.

    • Partha, But where is MJO related convection? Actually when MJO amplitude increases greater than 1, then it will exhibit in convection form. But I could not able to trace out. Can you locate it for me?

  17. Bangalore City -24.2mm , hal airport-32.3mm, hal ap finally manages to beat city ,yuktix aws in hebbal has got 71mm!!

  18. Chennai radar has become waste nowadays.. at the right time when it is needed it doesn’t work 😦

  19. so ameen’s wish is finally going to happen..chennai is going to get pounded once that U.A.C moves closer to coast..

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