1.It has already started its journey towards Tamil nadu coast.
2.It is intensifying slowly @500hpa. level. And likely to descend down to lower levels. but it will be not strong @lower levels.
3.It is likely to come closer to TN coast by 31st may or June 1st 2015.
Too early to talk about second UAC.
Rainfall impact in North Tamil nadu and South Andhra pradesh .
- moisture is high @500,700hpa levels on 31st may and 1st,2nd June.
- conditions are favourable for rains to increase in whole NTN and SAP and including chennai.
- Madden julian oscillation (MJO) likely to enter into phase 2, in coming days which will give support to this UAC and it is good for rainfall activity over NTN and SAP.
Southwest monsoon likely to make onset over Kerala mostly on june 1 st.
“We can’t predict weather accurately. We are predicting fully based on probability by seeing charts”.