Will Chennai be lucky this time?

For the past few days GFS is consistently showing 2 UAC’s coming near Tamil nadu.  And it is showing good rains in due for chennai city.
image

First UAC
1.It has already started its journey towards Tamil nadu coast.
2.It is intensifying slowly @500hpa. level. And likely to descend down to lower levels. but it will be not strong @lower levels.
3.It is likely to come closer to TN coast by 31st may or June 1st 2015.

Second UAC
Too early to talk about second UAC.

Rainfall impact in North Tamil nadu and South Andhra pradesh .

  1. moisture is high @500,700hpa levels on 31st may and 1st,2nd June.

  2. conditions are favourable for rains to increase in  whole NTN and SAP and including chennai.

  3. Madden julian oscillation (MJO)  likely to enter into phase 2, in coming days which will give support to this UAC and it is good for rainfall activity over NTN and SAP.
    image

Southwest monsoon
Southwest monsoon likely to make onset over Kerala mostly on june 1 st.

Note:
“We can’t predict weather accurately. We are predicting fully based on probability by seeing charts”.

courtesy
Ameen Bijli

2,112 thoughts on “Will Chennai be lucky this time?

  1. Started to rain with winds with heavy lightening and thunder…stroms developed very fast….I will just post the images now

  2. PJ, rain started in Chennai through the topic itself. As of now whether the rain is confirmed for tomorrow and day after ?

  3. SWM-onset missed the due date of May 30th?? so with error +4 days means, before June 3rd SWM onset must take place

  4. Hi..ameen it rains r not you r growing day by day..may b a lay man like me will be pleased by such reporting , quite easily, but a featured title is a great achievement..get d blessing from all d blogging gurus..take care…always be level headed n humble..future is yours..am proud that I am a blog mate of superkids like u n susa…have fun..enjoy..

  5. Ameen, Superb. Always eager to learn…keeness to participate, contribute is just amazing. Way to go…

  6. Rains are sure and will start from tomorrow night or morning of Monday. Please dont doubt them.

  7. The remark of a chennai dweller in another blog
    Rainclouds have a pact with Chennai – they only drizzle on the city, while practically drowning the surrounding areas. If you don’t believe me, ask Nagapattinam and Vishakapattinam, the two towns most Chennai-destined cyclones head to.

    • May be but the annual rainfall of Chennai is greater than Nagapattinam and Vishakapattinam.While annual rainfall.of Vizag is very low. I think its below 100,CMS.

      • The Problem is we want all clouds to give rains to chennai only which cannot happen…also chennai is not a pre monsoon rain place…chennai thunder showers happen once swm has set well..

    • Chennai overall receives good Annual rainfall compared to all the places in Tamil nadu and Andhra Pradesh

  8. Temperature 33 degree celsius at 8.30 am..its heating up ..so again a show is waiting for interior TN today

  9. One more day to go for historic June Rains to start. Wettest June since 1996 is on cards.

  10. Meanwhile, the monsoon is unlikely to hit Kerala coast today as forecast earlier. It is likely to be delayed by 2-3 days, as per new forecasts.

    The monsoon has already hit Sri Lanka and Andamans. However, the summer showers are continuing in many places.

    The Meteorological Department has predicted a below normal south-west monsoon in the country, with a rainfall forecast of 93 per cent of long period average.

    http://english.manoramaonline.com/news/kerala/economics-of-summer-showers-state-saves-rs-100-cr.html

  11. திருத்தணியில் வெள்ளிக்கிழமை பலத்த இடியுடன் இரண்டு மணி நேரம் ஆலங்கட்டி மழை பெய்தது.(Two hours starting from 4 pm to 6 pm Hail Storm in Tiruttani as per news paper reports

  12. Heavy Rains in Meghalaya and Assam Continues, ending 8.30 am on 29.05.2015
    ===================================
    The upper air cyclonic circulation over East Bihar and adjoining Sub Himalayan West Bengal extending up to 1.5 km above mean sea level became less marked. However an upper air cyclonic circulation lies over east Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood extending up to 1.5 km above mean sea level.

    Meghalaya
    =========
    (min 10 mm)

    Cherrapunji RKM – 190
    Cherrapunji – 152
    Mawsynram – 61
    Mawkyrwat – 27
    Baghmara – 13
    Williamnagar – 13
    Jowai – 10
    Nongostin – 10
    Shella – 10

    Assam
    ======
    (min 40 mm)

    Mushalpur – 117
    Numaligarh – 103
    Pagladiya NT Road Crossing – 94
    Bihupuria – 91
    Nalbari – 90
    Manas NH Crossing – 80
    Jorhat – 80
    Rangia – 78
    Barpeta – 70
    Kajalgaon – 70
    Beki Road Bridge – 70
    Karimganj – 69
    Mathanguri – 63
    Panbari – 63
    Beki Mathanguri – 60
    Patharughat – 54
    AIE NH Xing – 54
    Chenimari – 52
    Matunga – 51
    Maranhat – 50
    Chouldhowaghat – 47
    Teok – 46
    DRF – 45
    Badarpurghat – 45
    North Lakhimpur – 44
    Naharkatia – 43
    Dhemaji – 43
    Morang -43
    Tezpur – 40
    Goalpara – 40

    Kea Weather – http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1354

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

  13. Ameen
    I like the clarity and simplicity of the topic.
    While the next few days of rains is dependent on a few factors,your pt 3 on MJO is sure to bring in decent rains during most of June

  14. Vela sir, you have told that chances are there till 10th June. Can you predict how much possible ?

  15. Moderate Rains in Anantapur
    Rainfall till 8 am today in mm
    Kanaganapalle 73
    Anantapur Town 43
    Somandepalle 30.75
    D Hirchal 25.25
    Kalyandrug 22.25
    Rayadurg 20.75
    Peddapappur 19.5
    Pamidi 14
    Raptadu 12.25
    Singanamala 8
    Penu Konda 1
    Hindupur 0.25

  16. Congratulations Ameen.. The blog seniors will be really proud of you.. I think its hardly a year since you joined the blog and you have grown up very rapidly.. Keep it up and keep rocking!

  17. Temperature around 33C and is struggling to rise.. Shows clear dominance of Easterlies.. Signs of things to come..

  18. Annual Average Rainfall in AP and Telangana
    Coastal region – 1078.0 mm.
    Telangana region – 907.0 mm.
    Rayalaseema region – 714.0 mm.
    Visakhapatnam Average Annual Rain varies between 990 to 1100 mm

    • Sai u are going to ooty, so first enjoy the beautiful place and if rain comes means how u will enjoy so forget about rains and enjoy your trip

      • i don’t want to enjoy i want to see rains…
        ethuvum pakka mudiyala na parvala

      • Then you stay in chennai itself because from tmrw chennai has very good chance for rain

  19. சென்னையில் மழை பெய்யலாம் – வானிலை ஆய்வு மையம் தகவல்

  20. whether you guys agree with me or not, this year SWM is looking more zig zag. Usually before the onset, clouds seldom move near goa and maharashtra region latitude by this time.

    • Yes agreed, this year it looks like swm never sets in as there is no regular westerlies or clouding affecting kerala

  21. Less heat everywhere will there be a TS today. If there is a TS what will happen to VS theory

  22. congrats ameen for your effort. But i request you not to get carried with these praises. Spending too much time in blogging is not good for health for people in your age. Come here and blog for one hour and focus on other curricular activities. Go to gym and tone your body. read books and listen to good songs . Take this as advice not order.

  23. What is happening to Swm onset? Many weeks ago, skymet said it will happen today. Then last week they said it will be delayed by 1 week.

  24. Think yesterday was a fast moving squally storm grazed past Vellore, Krishnagiri, Salem and Erode districts! Erode was the biggest beneficiary.

  25. The guys in north india and other north indian media are so puzzled by delayed onset of SWM whereas people in TN who gets rains only by october for 10 days are sitting coolly and never bothered about the rains. what will be their situation if they have similiar situation like us. They all will die i thnk.

  26. Record rain in May(Bengaluru)- Even IMD Bangalore says reason VS)
    ——————————————————————-
    May rain breaks decade record
    The city received nearly 18mm of rain between 5.30 p.m. and 8.30 p.m. With this, May has received 173mm of rain, which is the highest for the month in a decade.
    “The heat and humidity of the past week led to the creation of a trough over Bengaluru. This caused clouds to build up. This will remain for the next two days at least,” said S.M. Metri, Director, Indian Meteorological Department (IMD).(

  27. IMD
    -The eastwest shear zone roughly along latitude 09.0°N between 3.1 & 5.8 km above mean sea level persists.
    -An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over Southwest Bay of Bengal off north Tamilnadu coast between 1.5 km to 2.1 km above mean sea level.

    • Its hard to believe that SW winds are yet to settle in S Peninsula. One of the weakest onset in history on the cards. In the middle of this month, I remember someone posting model outputs and telling that Easterlies rock TN in June. Is that materialising owing to this UAC?

  28. As per IMD there will 2 days delay in onset of SWM in Kerala-கேரளாவில் இந்தாண்டு பருவமழை இரண்டு நாட்கள் தாமதமாக பெய்யும் என்று வானிலை ஆய்வு மையம் தகவல் தெரிவித்துள்ளது.

  29. this is the best day in summer so far….warm but steady breeze …am actually enjoying the conditions went out for a while quite comfortable day…my house if gifetd with cross ventilation so brezze is tearing my house from one corner to another…

  30. and one more thing is that SOI is in increasing trend! it will help uac to develop…… and good for rainfall activity over NTN and SAP

  31. I wish it rains tomorrow atleast for Ameen Bijli’s sake who has burnt midnight oil yesterday to come out with brilliant topic and today with lovely maps

  32. C tn going to have rain feast starting from tmrw or day after tomorrow due to upcoming uac

  33. from the pic of forecast we can conclude that SWM onset will only be on 1st week of June

  34. UAC in Bay of Bengal coming nearer towards the coast……So More Thunderstorms for AP, TS and TN..
    Meanwhile the cloud mass in Arabian sea is getting disorganized due to NW movement and entering into high pressure Area

  35. Frm 1 or 2 nd jun wind transition in tvc likely to be onset date.. But not typical swm, will remain weak for a week or so 😦

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