912 thoughts on “Dry spell expected to continue

  1. ECMWF expecting a Depression in Arabian sea whereas GFS expecting a cyclone in AS. The good news is that system is confirmed during coming week.

    • more than a breeze, at the 4th floor of a open terace it’s pretty heavy wind and there is a few drops of rain.
      I can’t see the moon and stars.

  2. Wow….as expected yesterday’s interior TS/related latent heat of energy occurred over TN & Karnataka established an off-shore trough along west-coast, hence persistent drizzles/rainfalls along Kerala coast.

    Flash….28th May is first day of 3 days to be “persistent rains” along Kerala & Karnataka coasts. So 3rd consecutive “rainy day” over Kerala starting 28th May will become SWM-onset day.

    So 30th May will become SWM-onset date over Kerala in 2015 🙂

    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/satellite/Asia/India/Infraredcolor.htm

    • This will only be sufficient for 1-1.5 months but the good news is Veeranam is full capacity and can supply for 2 months to Chennai…So SWM has to be bang in couple of months…

  3. why SWM-onset along Kerala coast will be weaker?? why BOB-SWM branch going to stay in lull-mode?

    1) there is no strong MJO-pulse over phase 2 or 3.
    2) most importantly “shear gradient” between equator & 20 N” is very low. Hence SWM-Arabian current is very weak.

    Note:
    1. Equator VWS is 20knt & 20 N is 5knt. The difference is 15 knt, which is very low gradient. Hence weaker SWM-onset. If this equator VWS could be at 50-60 knt then SWM-onset might be very powerful.
    2. Moreover low shear pattern around Arabian ocean side near 20N has not established properly.
    3. High shear over BOB is the consequence of Elnino-pattern. This is not good, which makes BOB to stay in “lull mode” in coming days.

    cimss shear link: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=shr&zoom=&time=
    Figure: http://s10.postimg.org/vme97kuyx/wm5ir.gif

  4. jon, In meteo earth how to check other wind layers like 500,700,200hpa… its showing only 850hp winds for me

  5. Unusual Topic at this time. Temp won’t cross 37. Its expected to stay 35- 36 today and Cloudy sky with Cool Winds will be continuing throughout the Day.

  6. Monsoon Watch
    ♦ The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continues to pass through Lat 05.0°N/ Long. 79.0°E, Hambantota
    (Srilanka), Lat. 10.0°N/ Long. 86.0°E, Lat. 13.0°N / Long. 89.0°E and Lat. 18.0°N / Long. 95.0°E.
    ♦ Conditions are favorable for further advance of southwest monsoon into southern parts of southeast Arabian
    sea, Maldive, Comorin area and some more parts of south & central Bay of Bengal during next 1­2 days.

    http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/allindianew.pdf

  7. One small doubt, In the IMD radar animation the wind is showing east to SW but in Null school the wind is from SW to East..Am I reading it wrong?? Please let me know

  8. Congrats Gokul. I am sure no one would have understood ur high end speech in Times. Cheers. Sad to see IMD and Skymet did notsay anything about the UAC.

    Sky met just quoted the heat trough as the reason.

  9. Panbari continues to post 100 mm rainfall, Assam and Meghalaya Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 27.05.2015
    =============================================
    The trough extending between 1.5 & 2.1 kms a.s.l. from Bihar to coastal Odisha across Gangetic West Ben gal persists.

    Assam
    =======
    Panbari – 109
    Nazira – 51
    Badarpurghat – 37
    Dhubri – 37
    Haflong – 30
    Tikrikilla – 30
    Harinagar – 27
    Jia-Bharali – 20
    Kajigoan – 20
    Rangia – 20
    Maranhat – 20
    North Lakhimpur – 18
    Kampur – 17
    Gossaigaon – 17
    Dhupdhara – 17
    Goalpara – 16
    Amraghat – 16
    Karimganj – 16
    Annapurnaghat – 16
    Dholai – 15
    Gharmura – 15
    Matunga – 15
    Matijuri – 15
    Manas N H Crossing – 15

    Meghalaya
    ==========
    Cherrapunji – 85
    Williamnagar – 70
    Cherrapunji RKM – 60
    Shella – 50
    Baghmara – 45
    Mawkyrwat – 30
    Nongostin – 18
    Shillong – 11
    Ribhoi – 10
    Jowai – 10

    Kea Weather – http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1354

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

  10. Invest 92E over east-pacific ocean forecasted to become major-hurricane. Till that east-pacific hurricane weakens there won’t be any change in BOB-SWM front.

    Reason:
    East pacific hurricanes formation is the indication of the walker circulation more towards eastern pacific (thus strengthening of Elnino). So descending limb of walker circulation will be over BOB & adjoining West-pacific.

    So high shear over BOB, which may weaken/progression of SWM-current.

    Note:
    1) Very interesting fact is that east-pacific hurricanes “interlinked” with Arabian-systems through Elnino related walker-circulation.

    2) whenever there is as strong-system (hurricane cat.) over east-pacific, then Arabian will hoist weaker systems like Depressions/DDs.

    Whenever there is a weak system over east-pacific region, then Arabian ocean will set a stronger system (TS or above).

    The above analogy has >95% probability irrespective of ENSO-strength. This clearly indicates some important interlink between East-pacific & Arabian systems.

  11. கலகக்கள் கோகுல் கலக்கல் அருமையோ அருமை வாழ்த்துக்கள் கோகுல் தமிழ் செல்வன் – எல்லா “செல்வங்களும் ” ( I meant Selfun”)மணி மணியை வானிலை அலசுகின்றன

  12. y such complex/technical explanations not given by imd whenever it rains? or the news-papers/media not publishing it ?

  13. If MJO stays in phase 1 itself, then there is high probability of tropical system formation over Arabian ocean.

    BOB has to adjust with UAC/LPA, which can become D/DD over Arabian ocean 😦

  14. Congratulations Gokul sir.. There is so much to learn from you and other senior members of the blog! 🙂

  15. congrats to GTS for appearing through words in TOI today. He has been given two paras to produce his thoughts

  16. One more interlink between Arabian & east-pacific tropical systems will be “order of MJO propagation”.

    MJO’s phase around date line (phase7, junction of phase 7 &8) enhances the chance of east-pacific system. Later when MJO enters phases 8 & 1 (next regular order), which enhances the Arabian-tropical system.

    Overall it looks East-pacific tropical system formation followed by Arabian system.

    Note:
    The above explanation is so simple based on MJO-order of phases thus by avoiding deep explanation of Walker circulation’s ascending & descending limbs.

    MJO: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

  17. Bangalore at 10:30 PM temperate is 23’c, its partly cloudy. weather is awesome, thanks to the overnight rain

  18. Why in Elnno years east-pacific hosts more powerful hurricanes?? Answer is so simple. For Elnino establishment, MJO will make frequent rounds around date line (phase 7) with good amplitude (>1). This good amplitude in MJO will enhances the WWB, which carry the warm mosit air towards eastern pacific (apart from warm EKW). Thus Elnino conditions will establish, which in turn east-pacific to host powerful systems.

  19. “When there is a blogger’s name in a news paper, surrounding bloggers rush in and collide with the mentioned blogger to congratulate him. This causes the lift up of spirits in the blog and form a vertical power and explode into a cloud of joy which covers the entire blog. It is one such cloud of joy that has happened today in the blog.”
    Congrats GTS 🙂

  20. when will chennai and surroundings get rain, yesterday rain was full of north interior and up to delta region and interiors getting smashing rain why chennai left out with out rain please explain

  21. 4 centuries in TN yesterday.. and maybe more .!

    Kammapuram – 109
    Peranampattu – 107
    Manachanallur – 106
    Viralimalai – 104

  22. Current weather- overcast with temperature around 34 humidity peaking at 70….
    Moderate rains with very heavy winds nd severe lightnings reported between 12-1 midnight along the coast… 24 hours rainfall- Tondi 4 cm, ramnad 1cm…

  23. blog not working btw congrats to GTS partner, also som possible development ne of chennai in machili radar,

  24. Tichy got good rains Musri 51 mm, Samayapuram 50 mm Trichy Junction 49 mm, Trichy AP 43 mm

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