After 5 days of 40+ temperature, Chennai recorded 39.6 C yesterday. The same is expected to continue for a few more days. Chance is rain is very less. Most likely May will end with no more rainfall.
After 5 days of 40+ temperature, Chennai recorded 39.6 C yesterday. The same is expected to continue for a few more days. Chance is rain is very less. Most likely May will end with no more rainfall.
KeaWeather Archives 
Ok… I have drawn observed track and forecasted track for this UAC…. which is lasting since may 11th….. pls see the Diagram.. and pls tell me if it correct or not experts….. and if it is correct pls approve and i will draw in India map in my PC and will post my forecast for uac
My mother always used to talk about her geography teacher and how she loved the subject cos of the (those days examples given by her subject teacher) and when i was in school with the internet and Discovery channel etc i wished she had so much of it too. But tomorrow moring i am going to show her what you have done and personally its amazing! May you follow your dream and go according to your heart. Keep up the good work and BTW your showcase in the science fair All the Best bro…
super ameen.
Class
AB superb work..keep going..u r d pet of All Bloggers…kea’s find of the year..
Good one AB , keep it up 🙂
Super Work AB….
As simple ,but beautiful.super ameen.
Satellite image update…. courtesy – Maldives met department
Image loop
OMG..back to back rain-waves for Chennai by June 1st & June 6th according to GFS??
June 1st: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015052618/gfs_ir_ind_22.png
June 6th: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015052618/gfs_ir_ind_43.png
AP & TS states under severe rain-wave effect between June 8-11 according to GFS??
June 8th: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015052618/gfs_ir_ind_47.png
June 9th: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015052618/gfs_ir_ind_49.png
June 10th: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015052618/gfs_ir_ind_50.png
June 11th: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015052618/gfs_ir_ind_53.png
any chance for TS today ?
sir UAC coming close to Chennai by June1st. We have to wait till then sir.
red spot in Radar, is it VS rains ?
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/dynamic/doppler-caz.htm
lol. maddy is there sir.
Jeet and Ehsan are u expecting 40 today ? Please tell after seeing the wind and cloud pattern ?
Jeet disappeared yday itself
Cherrapunji in Meghalaya & Panbari in Assam continue to put 100 mm rainfall with ease, ending 8.30 am on 26.05.2015
======================================
The upper air trough from Sub Himalayan west Bengal extending upto 1.5 km asl has become less marked
(min 20 mm)
Meghalaya
========
Cherrapunji – 147
Cherrapunji RKM – 117
Williamnagar – 100
Baghmara – 59
Nongstoin – 55
Barapani – 40
Mawkyrwat – 40
Ribhoi – 28
Jowai – 23
Assam
=======
Panbari – 113
Dhubri – 49
Manas NH Crossing – 48
Pagladiya NT Crossing – 34
Goalpara – 34
Nalbari – 30
Beki Mathanguri – 30
Rangia – 29
Mathanguri – 27
Kokrajhar – 26
Dharamtul – 26
Tezpur – 24
Dhupdhara – 23
Aie NH Xing – 21
Majbat – 20
Tangla – 20
Mushalpur – 20
Guwahati – 20
Patharughat – 20
Dhekiajuli – 20
Kea Weather – http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1354
Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html
Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman
Comfortable Morning with Good Breeze in Chennai. Today its going to be a partly cloudy sky due to the effect of UAC. Temperature may stay around 38.
Illai saami inge eriyuthu
Lol
Even last night it was horrible, I only wish as you said if it stay around 38 manageable
Now good breeze from SSE. Slightly Comfortable.
PJ can we expect around 10 CM in the first week of June in Chennai ?
Paavam Sir PJ
Ellarum avara kelvi ketta avar ena panuvaru 😀
Quantum of Rainfall could not be said unless UAC comes close to coast and rain band forms.
Sir, the 1st UAC rains will be less. But the UAC which is going in 2nd week of June can give more than that.
sir, we can see some action to start around 31st May
Ehsan spreading false post in FB in Kea Weather.
Chennai Nungambakkam recorded 39.6 C today, 6th straight 40+ weather.
Highest temp recorded was 42.2 on Monday. Will that remain highest?
how can that be 6th, straight 40.
ha ha ha
East west Shear Zone to form in a day.
Aiiiiiiya!!!!!!!
June 7 aniku.mala peyum
Adv birthday wishes
Lol.I will come on that day…r u going anywhere?
Anyway thanks
East west Shear Zone to form tommorrow with a embedded UAC extending over 5 kms in height.
==================================.
Inference, Rains will start in the Interior Tamil Nadu from Tommorrow. The rainfall will continue to increase as days progress and it can become intense assisted with the heat factor. The key to this rains is the UAC embedded in the zone and it is expected to move towards TN from Andaman sea like NEM.
Chennai can get some rainfall activity from 31st May / June 1st. More to follow as we get closer to the event. SWM is knocking the doors, dont be surprised, if we get rains from Sea like NEM.
East West Shear Zone with a embedded UAC shown below.
Bloggers mark these words “dont be surprised, if we get rains from Sea like NEM.” and now onward the comments/questions should be , how many cm, mm so and so forth, common start music
sir ethku intha build-up ?
Wow we got our prediction from PJMD(PJ Meteorological Department) Rains confirmed.
Enna kodumai ithu Vishwa
“Unmaiyai Sonnen”
One of the favourite topics in kea blog..
Take your umbrella,U might need them as easterlies
u like that. I will create one when the UAC comes near to us
Ok.I am waiting!
Actually who created that topic?
Sorry i forgotten that.?
But will it come near to us like GFS says?
yes..that’s always a memorable topic from PJ,,
Our UAC has joined the strong monsoons and going away….and speeding the monsoons to India mainland..???
Not going away.coming near to chn on hune 1st
yes its vomiting nar to chn on hune 1 st
lol…
lol..
Sorry typo error ..june 1st…
Phone la fast ah adika mudiyala..vidu enna
Southwest monsoon la oru north east monsoon…. Super… Should happen
Will happen
IMD satellite image & products website have been re-designed..
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insat.htm
A big bird can be seen in kea cam..its eagle ?
Its tn billed stork ( naarai)
Clouds coming from sea to land..Good sign for Uac nearing us..
Rain clouds from UAC..to TN
But wont reach us
Not today..its a beginning only..
Yes
The highest Maximum Temperature of 47.6°C has recorded at Titlagarh (Odisha). yesterday..
Sun is back to office…hope it works well
Not so sunny.
And strong breeze too
Let’s wait and see
Ok
Intense ts at sea
temp would still hit 100 F again today..i think it will be between 38-39
Tibetan High @ 200 hPa layer is currently seen located close to 25 N parallel…It has moved up almost as it was expected by models ….
Easterlies have established quite firmly across the tropics up to 15 N latitude …..in the 200 hPa layer …..
that t.s in sea intensified rapidly…
Quite intense..
Sel it seems to move towards SW direction /…
Again usupething?
Haha 😀
yes…
Can we see a very active hurricane season in Atlantic during elnino years?
No jeet, elnino suppress the hurricane activities in Atlantic
Okay…but some correlation in US hurricane season and our nem
That storm east of us is visible here in this one ……
Yes a lonely don can be seen in chennai radar brightly
Pleasant weather here after a week. Dark clouds around and windy.
That storm is spreading out a bit in mid troposphere ….along with some deep and intense convective columns …..
If you thought Chennai was hot… then you’ll be shocked.
The hottest place in the world is Dallol, Ethiopia, it has a yearly average temperature of 34.4°C. Chennai’s is only 29°C ( for comparison) and the yearly average of the daily max temperature there is 41.2°C!!
Massive TS ESE of Chennai..
any chance of rain possible for chennai
-1000000000000%
Facepalm
Instead saying like this….. u can say
What is Rain ?
How it will look like ?
36.3 now
ts northeast of bangalore
It’s too far ahead but..
First UAC may give moderate rainfall to NTN but second one around 6th June will give very good rainfall.
2nd UAC expected to batter Chennai in latest GFS run !
even though we have so many days left, good to see the picture.
is it possible for this UAC to decend to lower levels?
MMaybe
yes. even descending down. Its visible even in 850 hpa.
i has change in every update dont believe until hits
Guest and maddy, chances are there that the 2nd UAC to become LPA
Actually a depression, not a UAC!
i was about to post thala…
it will descend down.
Sir, y 1st UAC not descending down ? but 2nd UAC is ?
may be the vorticity is less. the lower level winds may not be conducive. All UAC will not descend down as LPA
ok sir, thanks
looks like it reached 45kt
ECMWF agrees with GFS on second UAC.
The latest GFS run is amazing for us, but then a depression or so at such a low latitude after SWM is a rarity!!
so wind patterns will again altered due to this depression ? how is it possible with Westerlies expected to gain strength?
Yea I was wondering the same.. but the onset spell is weak this time. Such storms have occurred in June when SWM is weak like the 1996 one
oh ok ok
1996 had a weak onset but picked up greatly in 2nd half of June after the cyclone
IMD
Temp – 37.2 (+4.2’c)
RH – 46% (-13%/HR)
GFS showing rainfall spread over 3 days.
omg 9inches for chennai
starting nalla than pa iruku…aana finishing sari illayae 😦
hahaha perfect
susa looks like whole peninsula is benifitted
Yep.. but once again it’s too early to say, first let’s wait and see how the onset is
ok…but all the time we r waiting only pa
no no lets hope this time it will happen
hmm…
Looks like a cyclone similar to June 1996 in the making( mjo with good amplitude entering IO after 4 days will provide good support for intensification).
10:37 am 37.3 temperature today 42+ expected
Last time a LPA came to Chennai in June was 1996 and it become a Cyclone and another LPA came in 1991. We are long due for a LPA in June (20 years). In 1996 we got 667 mm in 3 days and in 1991 we got 200 mm in 2 days.
2015 ___ mm in ____ days ?
mjo with good amplitude entering IO after 4 days will provide good support for system intensification.
200 mm in 3 days..conservative estimate !!
who said 200 mm in 3 days. By the way 200 mm in june we should be happy
Even 20 mm is enough for me this summer..but hope for a rain feast…..
Pj Yesteday stroms was fake echoes??
only the ones that were 300 km SE of Chennai were real.
yes. Paul said all were fake.
Ohh sorry Pj .
sir why ts in land doesnt gaining intensity but in bob its maintaining its intensity
Because it’s only 10:50 am. Heating effects haven’t set in yet
ok yesterday ts in bob doesnt visible in max radar but today it entered 100km radius of chennai tomorrow?
for all ts in land needs heating effect?
Almost all do, unless there is an upper air trough/UAC overhead
ok pa thanx
Lack of.moisture.it will pick up as the day progresses
Moisture is there
Oh.kk.
Can u tell in which direction the ts are moving?
NE to SW as of now
SW
the ones near where confirm fake echoes.
Intense ts at sea entering 100km radius
Depression near Chennai on June 7th
In.my birthday day joly
Deep Depression near TN coast.
It travels into N.TN and Karnataka and forms as cyclone on 9th June
and travels to Mumbai on 10th June
nambalama gfs ??????
GFS blabbering again. Cyclone forming over Maharashtra coast
anga suthi enga suthi thirumba athe place vanthutangapa
Dear All, please dont post any where that cyclone is coming to Chennai or Bombay in FB or anywhere else. This is the 1st run of GFS. Lets wait for 2nd UAC to form then we can track it better than “IMD”
If u post now it will be false alarm. U can be arrested too after what happened recently with false GFS landfall shown by xtremeweather blog.
Yes from past few months GFS success rate has fallen down considerably. So lets wait for ECMWF run before taking final call.
Upper level easterlies bringing cloud cover over Chennai, it was clear sky in the morning, now clouds in upper level covering the Sun.
OMG ECMWF also expecting LPA to hit TN !!!
is it lpa?
Yes the circulation is seen clearly. A weak one
ok
Nothing in gfs for next 192hrs
Precipitation Outlook for next two weeks. Looks deadly for Chennai( 200 mm and above) during second week.
http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/prec.html
looks like gem takes 2nd to N ap
wow two uac back to back in chennai is something special in this part of the year and atleast if one materialise out means chennai definitely will be pounded, thanks to Pj sir and all other experts to bring some good news in this harsh summer
Stroms to the 100km SE of Chennai is not visible clearly in the Sky.
More High clouds around.
but its moving away from us ,
IMD
Temp – 37’C (-1.2’C)
RH – 44% (+7.2%C)
Hi guys
Been a week since I blogged.
Was busy shifting my house 🙂
so what’s new?
Anything good for chennai to take away this heat?
just scroll down and dont scream
Yea just now saw 😛
A DD close to our ccoast?
Bored of seeing this as it dissapoints us every time 😛
this is june. buddy.
I’m not gonna trust any model unless it forms and comes close to our coast and brings us some rain.
yes its moving south west rain will taget pondy cuddalore and delta region
Even a mild drizzle with good cloud cover can reduce this heat and bring us some happiness 🙂
What a towering TS in sea. Better than norwestors
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/dynamic/doppler-caz.htm
Gud news is that some rains possible on june 7th and but i hav to go to school on june 8 which is bad news
Fresh development off coast
No model has picked up the current TS
UAC storms models wont pick. thats what i am telling u guys.
High UV radiation responsible for steep rise in heat deaths in Telangana, AP
I want to see how IMD announces SWM onset this year. The westerlies has to be in depth upto 600 hpa. In 700 hpa we can see NW winds upto 1st june. Tricky days for IMD.
lol exactly i noticed and posted last night, rains are gonna be caused by UAC and will be moving from east to west, so I don’t know how they will announce it
புதுடில்லி: அடுத்த மூன்று அல்லது நான்கு நாட்களில் கேரளாவில் தென்மேற்கு
பருவமழை துவங்க வாய்ப்புள்ளதாக இந்திய வானிலை ஆய்வு மையம் தெரிவித்துள்ளது.
athu common man ku sir.
are they giving any special report to bloggers
Mudiyala neram! :p
Sir, Neenga Nallavara, illae Kettavara?
romba romba nallavan sir
We might see good thunderstorm activity in the interiors today
susa atleast today any chances for us
yes
susa one ts moving sw another moving pure w,2nd one will reach ur place
Hmm, it will fall in line and move SW soon
ok
is there any chances to maintain its intensity till it reaches coast
It still needs to travel 150 km
ts direction from ne to sw this direction is also favourable
Today’s topic seems to be very apt -40 °C + has gone for a six and though it s 37.8°C appears to be very pleasant
40 is gone for now. Can surely return again. Not to forget we get more 40’s in june compared to may
Nature is unpredictable, let us see
June is the most uncomfortable month
where are those storms heading ? karaikal?
Good cloud cover here in thiruvanmiyur, I think we can get some surprise showers now thanks to low level dark clouds which reminds me of nem
Current UAC near Nagapattinam after 4 days.
Reason for less hot day
hi PJ the 2 UACs anticipated in 1st week of june in the east coast is it hinting that we will have a weak SWM in west coast like a break monsoon period..
ECMWF picking up the second UAC. GFS forecasting it to develop into a Depression.
What is that TS to SE of chennai in RADAR. Will pondy gey any rain from these TS?
It is moving towards SW. New storms need to form west of the current ones for u to get rain, but it will have to travel a lot
Som serious rains se in sea heading probably to kkl later.. we need something in ne
Massive band entering 250 km radius.. Tomorrow hopefully we will see these much closer to the coast
Tom close to coast
And day after tom rains
TS developments towards east of Bangalore
UAC east of TN
Omg flanking forming band?
Storms flanking west at right time.. Pondy might get lucky
Southern tip of Chennai also will get something
Adhukku NW flank aganom
You mean which one will affect pondy. TS in sea?
If more flanking cells develop, the storms to your NE might affect you
Super NE monsoon kind of rain from east or NE
Some tiny ts NE of chennai..
ECMWF expects UAC to intensify and develop circulation at 850 hPa.. a minor circulation near TN
Yes. This time some benefit to Chennai can be expected.
Everything slipping SW.. These are the kind of thunderstorms that can give you 10 cm in some 1-2 hours without you even noticing..
Tom for us?
May be:-)
Hope so
Omg no summer leave this year 😦
Mild circulation to east of chennai
When?
Now
Sea Breeze Sets In
Super
You are correct
Yes quite strong as well
I hav to make my rg now
Vela sea breeze yet to set in, not able to see humidity influx
Start the debate pj sor
adapavi. though the winds are SE, the moisture levels are not increasing.
Hehe
But almost after a week we are getting lovely pleasant breeze
Yes…rightly said
I could see the wind blowing quite strongly from east in pondy
This looks promising for today?!
Not found
in the addressbar end add g
Updated the link!
Guys do you think, no body died in TN due to sun stroke or sun exhaustion. Definitely people would have died. But y the TN govt nor media is focusing on this issue in TN as well as we are liked by sun for ever.
True the media does not give importance here, sunstroke a common term -especially with old age people
Only people from Vellore, Tiruvallur and Chennai districts are facing this heat. It is neither extreme, nor unusual. Everyone is acclimatized to this
But people would have died due to sunstroke and they should be compensated by govt whether heat is extreme or not. As you know even though temperature in chennai is 42, our feeling temperature is 50-55 C. That is extremely dangerous.
But yea maybe a few from sunstroke but nothing serious like AP.
It would be awesome if those 2 blobs converge n hit CTN coastline serious rains r getting wasted in sea 😦
satellite image..
radar image 100km radius