After a slight delay dog days finally returns to Chennai. Nunga recorded a maximum of 41.1c yesterday. Will this be beaten today? How many 40+ days will we have this summer.
Don’t underestimate the power of veppasalanai. Just because today flopped doesn’t mean everyday will. Watchout this evening, the heat trough will prevail, moisture will be available and there is more energy. Better chances of TS for interiors
I’m once again repeating my forecast for today 22/5/2015
Weather forecast for major cities in India
Delhi-clear skies with heat wave conditions would prevail. Max and min temperatures would be around 43c and 26c
Mumbai – partly cloudy skies. max and min temperatures would be around 32c and 30c
Kolkata – partly cloudy skies turning into cloudy skies light rain may occur. possibly heat wave conditions would prevail. max and min temperatures would be around 43c and 28c
Chennai – clear skies with heat wave conditions would prevail over city. max and min temperatures would be around 41-42c and 30c
Banglore – partly cloudy skies. max and min temperatures would be around 35c and 22c
Hyderabad – clear skies with severe heat wave conditions would prevail. max and min temperatures would be around 44-45c and 29c
Thiruvananthapuram – partly cloudy skies turning into cloudy skies. light to modrate rains may occur. max and min temperatures would be around 31c and 25c.
Rains will return to Kerala coast tonight. Sri Lanka set to receive first SWM spells. SW Sri Lanka will receive isolated/scattered showers. Kerala will receive isolated rains with a couple of places reaching 4-5 cm. There is a UAC embedded in the E-W shear zone at 3 km a.s.l. at about 7.5 N near Maldives. Watch the date, 22nd morning, SWM sets in SW Sri Lanka. It should cover entire SL in another 5 days.
SST gradient is the source for pressure gradients (troughs etc). What’s this heat trough???
I guess it was night time for u when I explained earlier today.. Heating is uneven as we know. Certain parts will get heated more. This happened and trough formed from WB to TN coast today (LWD). It is a trough of low triggered by heat or VS. This temperature gradient creates pressure gradient.
IRI latest seasonal forecast showing drought for southern peninsula coming monsoon season. It is showing below normal rainfall for South India during JJAS period.
21st May was burning hot like a furnace/burning oven. These veepa salanam phenomenon normally happens in June-July month accompanied by severe thunder/lightening
Meenambakkam and south chennai will have some chillness as hills are present central and north chennai is uncomfortable.
Meenambakkam – 27.4
Nungambakkam – 29.4 as per yesterday.
Today its nearly 30 – 30.5
Death toll increases heavily
eenadu news..
yesterday highest in AP in durajpalli suryapet with 47.5 degrees
Telangana sunstroke deaths yesterday 147 people (only yesterday)
Ap death toll 78 people (only yesterday)
famous indian astrologer Ganesha predicts:
All in all, though, when it comes to the Monsoons scenario, Ganesha foresees a ‘Normal Monsoon’ for India in 2015, with some unequal distribution of rainfall in various parts of India. Thus, there may be flood-like situations in some parts of the country, while some areas may see shortage of rainfall.
The Tibetan High is still located close to 20 N parallel ….It is expected to move 5 – 7 N in the next 7 days .
The TEJ should be in place across S.India by this month end according to latest forecasts ……..
This sudden shift is usually said to be a result of an adjustments in thermal wind balance between the lower and higher latitudes with large scale heating shifts in the upper Troposphere …..
This is really unusual and it is telling signs of global warming. Now naidu wants to construct ulta modern capital in vijayawada, hottest place in andhra. Think about the capital city hot conditions once it is constructed.
South AP also has more chance for severe TS today, Sriharikota will have more chances for TS today, moisture over NTN and SAP is higher than yesterday.
I really feel sorry for hyderabad, andhra and north indian cities. Heat in these cities will be killing. Once when I was in hyderabd I experienced that torturous heat. Compared to that, chennai heat is far better.
Potential Vorticity Advection – Warm Phase is Warm Front, which produces thunderstorms and Cold Fronts are producing ACC which is downwelling wind patterns.
Today the intensity of Westerlies at 300 mts is very less. When sea breeze sets in it will gain in altitiude. If not too the westerlies impact will be less than yesterday. Yesterday temp will be hard to touch today.
Three cities. Varied weather experience. My observation..Travel n weather.Katpadi- Madras-.Bombay to Madras..
Born in Madras and brought up in Katpadi Township till the age of 14 was probably a blessing in disguise for the simple reason, you get used to extreme temperatures so early in your life. Katpadi and Vellore are synonymous with heat during the day time for better part of the year and also for minimum temperatures dipping to 14 n 15 degrees Celsius in winter as the twin towns are surrounded by hills n its quite natural that it radiates heat and most of times you find Vellore being the first place to register high max temperatures among various cities/ towns of TN
Getting used to Madras weather threw a whole lot of challenges initially as the humidity and the perspiration factor was an experience very difficult to forget. Though as a young boy you hardly worry or keep thinking about temperatures..You live in a carefree world and thinking about weather will naturally be the last among priorities unless you happen to be Susas n Ameens of today.
Moving to Bombay was probably the best thing to happen as you encounter climatology of different kinds. Though Madras n Bombay are coastal cities , you tend to experience different, varied forms of weather right through the year. Like Madras, Bombay too has a short winter if you can call it actually and I can hear someone from Delhi laugh when I talk about Madras/Bombay winter. Though you don’t require any thermal wear in both the cities, Bombay has more of that “chill feel ” for the simple reason that it’s about 1000 kms NW of Madras. Towards mid January n Early February minimum temperatures do dip around 16 n 17 degrees Celsius once in a while.
Off course, when you speak of Bombay weather wise, the cities monsoon has to be spoken about. The monsoon there has a general onset date around June 8 ( plus or minus 3 days) mostly and by and large the arrival is marked by lightning n Thunder and hardly any sluggish start to it. Straightaway the monsoon gets into top gear mood on most occasions and I’ve witnessed 200 to 250 mm recorded in the first spell of rains itself few times. Mostly each spell of rains stretches up to 4 or 5 days n the city gets about 6 to 8 spells of rain in the entire monsoon period starting from June 1st week till about September end. Sometimes, very rarely it does carry onto October 1st week. You normally have monsoon beaks and few times it has even stretched up to 12 to 15 days. July by far is the wettest month in terms of quantum as well as NOS of rain days there. On most occasions the city invariably gets its share of 1800 to 2000 mm of rainfall whatever the conditions prevailing in other parts of the country. I’ve shared few details on well a Mumbaikar prepares himself before SWM.(Monsoon Preparedness).The citizens follow certain routines before and during the monsoon religiously every year without fail. The lakes which provide drinking water to the huge metropolis on most occasions gets filled up by mid August. By September, though the frequency reduces , you get to see some intense spells lasting 45 minutes to one hour. The initial monsoon months like June n July are associated with incessant rains lashing right through the day sometimes. The farewell day of monsoon is always again marked by thunder n lightning and you immediately realize that it’s bidding good bye only to come back next year.
Bombay like most of the western regions of the country has an early summer n you find temperatures touching 37 or a rare 38 in March. The another interesting aspects is the famous October heat which follows culmination of SWM. Believe me, Bombay’s October are more hot sometimes than their actual summer months like March , April n May..
Always felt that one has to witness one full monsoon season at least once in their lifetime.
Novak i have read your comments about mumbai many times but everytime its interesting to read..its all becoz of ur presentation skills..i witnessed full SWM 3 times, once in mysore/coorg district between july and october 2006, mangalore between jan 2007 till feb 2008 and in pune between may 2008 to dec-2008..SWM is really great but i love chennai rains more than anything becoz of thrill it provides like last week buss..
Thanks WTBSC. Would love to experience SWM rains of other cities or regions of west coast. What to do, I’ve only experienced Bombay rains to share..Yes, nothing to beat the cool n suspense filled NEM rains..
Only 1 part( Bombay) is been discussed where is chennai
Madras weather, we all know. Discussed day in day out. Humidity, Sweat, TS, NEM, Mild winter. Off course, the indefatigable KEA Bloggers..What else. Always first Love. My Madras, My City.
Like it .
I can relate to weather in katpadi as I did my schooling in Sunbeam school.
Some breathtaking NEM statistics.
——————————————-
This year as we all know, there’s a good chance of el nino + positive IOD. Here are some stats. A big thanks to GTS.
Out of the 14 El Nino events after 1969, NEM has failed only 2 times. That’s a fail % of just 14, which is fantastic!!
5 times it was excess, giving it an excess % of 36, which is also great.
Now, talking about positive IOD, it has also occurred 14 times after 1969. NEM, during positive IOD has a fail % of 28, which is OK. However, it has the same excess %. IN A POSITIVE IOD YEAR, ALL NEM RAINFALL CATEGORIES ARE MORE OR LESS EQUALLY POSSIBLE .
————-
Talking about positive IOD + el nino, the excess %, is a very encouraging 38 %!!
Failure has occurred only once in this combo, giving it a very low 13%.
This year is going to be positive iod & el nino which has been great historically.
Now another best narration from Novak, good to see his writings.
Yes i have been Mumbai 8 times, out of this 8 i have been to Mumbai in April and May for 5 times.
Once during Vinayak Chathurthi in 1997, then during October 1998 and in December end during New Year of 2008.
5 times during summer month of April and May was during school summer vacations from 1990 to 1995, in 1991 i could not go to Mumbai for several reasons. Those days we use to have summer vacations for at least 45 days, nowadays not even for a month, that is different story. During April and May the temp Mumbai around 36 max, but if i see Pune temp in paper it would be around 45C. Mumbai temp was really bearable even though we have high humidity like Chennai, as Chennai would cross 40C.
However during 1997 September Vinayak Chathurthi time, that time the SWM was about to end, so some intermittent spells were there, and it was not hot.
During 1998 post SWM summer, i was getting down in Kalyan stations since my relaitves were in Ambernath. That was horrible. I still remember when i left Chennai in 1998 October the temp was around 33C, but in Mumbai that afternoon i could feel the heat wave. Then that afternoon i left for Bhatia Hospital to see my relative got admitted near Grants Road with full of soaked shirt, then that evening a strong thunder storms occurred and then stayed in Mahim from that day. When i saw that day temp in news, it was 39C. I never saw beyond 36C in April and May, this was surprising and when i asked to my relative, they said it is second summer for them and it will last for at least one month after SWM.
For the next 10 days the summer was horrible, by first week of November there was another thunder storms and from then the winter started to settle and temp was close to 30’s and night temp started to dip below 20C. I could not realise that there were huge climate change in just couple of days from summer to winter. Yes we have been to Winter from Summer in just two days time. I have stayed there till November end and came back to Chennai the last day of November.
As Novak said, MUMBAI is really an enjoyable city, but it cannot compared with any other state capitals in India, that is totally a different place. I too like it.
It was unforgettable second summer of Mumbai in October.
Pune regularly crosses 40 C most of the time from April till mid may..and the heat is quite unbearable but you have to notice after 5 PM from no where temp dipes to low 20s steadily…evenings and night is much bearable..which is the only drawback i see in chennai during May/June heat
NEM and ELNINO to be compared with 2015 type ELNINO.
The 2015 type ELNINO is emerging during summer monsoon time, if you compare with the same kind of ELNINO years in the past, you can count it by fingers. 1972 & 1997 is like 2015.
1. In 1969 ELNINO arrived late in October, hence NEM was excess.
2. 1972 & 1997 when ELNINO was arrived in May and Positive IOD superseded and gave excess rainfall during NEM. This is like 2015.
3. In 1987, since ELNINO has started in 1986 september itself and continued till 1987 december, it was an longer time ELNINO year, ELNINO started to weaken September 1987, Positive IOD emerged in August, hence it is an unusual year.
4. In 2002 & 2009 ELNINO developed in August and was weak , hence there was no impact.
To Summarize:
Hence If ELNINO arrives in May and Positive IOD developed during the same period then NEM is excess or normal. If ELNINO develops prior to May or after May and before August then those years NEM Fails even though Positive IOD.
2015 Prospect:
In 2015 the same thing happening as ELNINO developing in May and if Positive IOD develops by May or June or July, NEM 2015 should be surplus.
OMG !!! Some one has given false alarm of Cyclone Ashobaa over Arabian Sea, IMD has given a press release today and says it is the only responsible body to give any official warning …
most govt offices are like that..the passport office that is opposite to scope international is also very worst..had a poor experience when getting passpport
no dude..i just applied for my wife n kid recently so systematic and fantastic it was everything automised…min of hours stay with kid (<1 yr) 20 mins…if adult 2 hours atleast…
i had the passport for my wife n kid the very next day…shocked i was.
If we submit proper proofs, it’s very easy… I got it for my wife and my daughter in just 2 days
In Kea Yesterday was Congratulations Day and Today Para Day.
In my company
Wednesday it was Selfie Day.
Yesterday was Food Festival Day.
Today Ethnic Wear Day.
Will i be able to release my Cats during these Dog days???
Omg popup in 50 km circle
Finally a salanam at 50kms
Don’t underestimate the power of veppasalanai. Just because today flopped doesn’t mean everyday will. Watchout this evening, the heat trough will prevail, moisture will be available and there is more energy. Better chances of TS for interiors
Super topic..who posted this
Where?
@demonte colony
May be that big ball turned to tiny popo
I’m once again repeating my forecast for today 22/5/2015
Weather forecast for major cities in India
Delhi-clear skies with heat wave conditions would prevail. Max and min temperatures would be around 43c and 26c
Mumbai – partly cloudy skies. max and min temperatures would be around 32c and 30c
Kolkata – partly cloudy skies turning into cloudy skies light rain may occur. possibly heat wave conditions would prevail. max and min temperatures would be around 43c and 28c
Chennai – clear skies with heat wave conditions would prevail over city. max and min temperatures would be around 41-42c and 30c
Banglore – partly cloudy skies. max and min temperatures would be around 35c and 22c
Hyderabad – clear skies with severe heat wave conditions would prevail. max and min temperatures would be around 44-45c and 29c
Thiruvananthapuram – partly cloudy skies turning into cloudy skies. light to modrate rains may occur. max and min temperatures would be around 31c and 25c.
Good one
thanks
So naubita and doremon is back
Popup mvng W away from PNDi
Good morning
Sorry, good night
good night guys….
good night
Now a popup 80 ENE in the sea
Rains will return to Kerala coast tonight. Sri Lanka set to receive first SWM spells. SW Sri Lanka will receive isolated/scattered showers. Kerala will receive isolated rains with a couple of places reaching 4-5 cm. There is a UAC embedded in the E-W shear zone at 3 km a.s.l. at about 7.5 N near Maldives. Watch the date, 22nd morning, SWM sets in SW Sri Lanka. It should cover entire SL in another 5 days.
Pop-up atleast. Maddy is it Veppa Salanam
The heat trough still exists, but should weaken soon. Any veppa salanam popups from now onwards will form only in the sea
SST gradient is the source for pressure gradients (troughs etc). What’s this heat trough???
I guess it was night time for u when I explained earlier today.. Heating is uneven as we know. Certain parts will get heated more. This happened and trough formed from WB to TN coast today (LWD). It is a trough of low triggered by heat or VS. This temperature gradient creates pressure gradient.
Midnight debate started
yes, local low will shift there as sea would be hotter than land in the night
IRI latest seasonal forecast showing drought for southern peninsula coming monsoon season. It is showing below normal rainfall for South India during JJAS period.
http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/
OMG…due to combination of warm nino with neutral IOD??
Classical el ninos( east pacific based) does not affect SWm adversely. We have to only worry about el nino modoki.
They are sensing cooling of nino 1&2 regions over nino 3.4 in coming days?
IRI SST anomalies forecast:
http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/Global/Forecasts/SST.html
Every single weather agency(IMD – INDIA, ECMWF – EUROPE, IRI – US, JAMSTEC – JAPAN, JMA, CFS – US) expecting below normal SWM.
No +ve IOD, with warm nino 3.4 region during first 2 months of SWM season. This is not good for SWM??
This is nothing but VS. VS is general convection
good night
21st May was burning hot like a furnace/burning oven. These veepa salanam phenomenon normally happens in June-July month accompanied by severe thunder/lightening
Yea.. it is a trough caused by VS. Hence heat trough. I’m too sleepy now, will debate on this tomorrow morning(night for u) Good night
Ok good night
Waiting for GN. Go and sleep. I told to take break on VS.
Latest SST anomalies:
Looks good. Why IRI is differing???
Never seen a TS in sea at ene of vhennai due to heat
This also looks good with warm Nino 1&2 with warm EQUINOO (60E-90E region slightly deviated from IOD concept). http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.5.21.2015.gif
Very Uncomfortable day so far this year. Ineffective sea breeze no chillness in the air min temp almost 29 – 30 all over the coast till pamban.
morning here in east tambaram seems more comfortable than yday quite windy
Meenambakkam and south chennai will have some chillness as hills are present central and north chennai is uncomfortable.
Meenambakkam – 27.4
Nungambakkam – 29.4 as per yesterday.
Today its nearly 30 – 30.5
Mild morning in kkl quite windy too
Waiting for this to b in operation 🙂
https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-ktY-FSUz6r4/VV4vIyLROKI/AAAAAAAAFcs/iDjU5WN9q5I/w354-h530-no/15%2B-%2B1
windy in pondicherry from SSW
I think it will be hot after agni nakshatrimam also
See coast from chennai to pamban will be very hot
at 600 mts winds were blowing at 40 knots (75 km/hr). No chance of any TS forming today too.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/dynamic/doppler-vp2.htm
We will get some rain on sunday
Veppa Salanam team. Again today GFS shows the Big Bulb more intense than yesterday. Will it happen.
No….it can’t happen PJ
Why sir..
why can’t it happen ?
Guys,
We had TS yesterday, but not at the intensity and widespread as we all expected.
TS near Sholingur and Kalahasthi was severe one yesterday, that was the place the wind confluence was happening.
hi partha..what time the popup started yesterday?
around 05.00PM…
okay
Sir, What was the reason.. It could not explode yesterday?
Strong Westerlies at lower levels. Another Scorching day for sure could end up with 39.5 – 41 today.
10 – 20mm Have recorded near Sholingur.
Late night pop ups hppnd ( last night) mouli
Sholingur got rains from evening popups i see.
Yes
Late night popups in sea?
Over land…
Hmm. Lets see today what the GFS forecast happens or not. I feel very less chances.
More or less it will be same like yesterday… Let’s see
Yes could be but moisture is less only 700hpa shows moisture over north interior Tamilnadu by 17hrs.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/05/22/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=relative_humidity/orthographic
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/05/22/1200Z/wind/isobaric/700hPa/overlay=relative_humidity/orthographic
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/05/22/1200Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=relative_humidity/orthographic
humidity is not exactly moisture
As of now nice breeze, but sky is not looking blue neither overcast
Yes sluggy Weather as of now.
Yes we need clear skies to enjoy like yesterday
who knows it may not be like yesterday, and you may even see TS out of blue today!!
I am sure there won’t be any ts but this useless clouds still hovering
If there is Moisture TS will form beyond these Clouds but its less as of now.
Pls don’t say enjoy.. I am counting my days for first SWM TS..
MJO is on its extreme levels of suppressed phase……
Total cloud cover forecast from GFS for Chennai is close to 75 % for mid day ….
Already useless hazy clouds covering us….
Yes partner , might keep temp. check due to direct insolation ….
This is what i said the wind confluence around 17.00PM yesterday right over NTN which bought TS over Sholingur and surroundings.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/05/21/1200Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-278.68,12.16,1629
Any possibility of Bubble Storms today?
i do not know about bubbles, but ts possible in Tiruvallur and Kanchipuram districts, today it will closer to chennai than yesterday.
We can expect isolated hailstorms too in those districts
According to this gradient level wind analysis chart of 12 UTC yesterday, Chennai had wind speeds of 15 – 30 knots average , mostly westerlies ……….
Kea,
Are u running in the Mirchi Neon Night Marathon? 🙂 Will they give the Neon accessories for free or shud v pay? 😀
What is this? When is this? Where is this?
http://www.mirchineonrun.com/
Rs.800/- Per Participant
gfs showing heavy storms again,won’t be surprised if it happens
Death toll increases heavily
eenadu news..
yesterday highest in AP in durajpalli suryapet with 47.5 degrees
Telangana sunstroke deaths yesterday 147 people (only yesterday)
Ap death toll 78 people (only yesterday)
That is very sad ……
31 people died in suryapet mandal alone
wish the Monsoon sets in quickly and brings down these adverse conditions …….
sad news . but it continues year after year . no end to this tragedy …pity those people
famous indian astrologer Ganesha predicts:
All in all, though, when it comes to the Monsoons scenario, Ganesha foresees a ‘Normal Monsoon’ for India in 2015, with some unequal distribution of rainfall in various parts of India. Thus, there may be flood-like situations in some parts of the country, while some areas may see shortage of rainfall.
Maddy,
we have a chance today too, yesterday it was limited to a particular area, but today TS will emerge in Vellore, Tiruvallur and Kanchipuram districts.
8 30 am temperatures
SCCL office 41 degrees (highest ever)
Suryapet 38.6 degrees (highest ever at 8 30)
Ramagundam 37 degrees (highest at this time till now)
Rentachintala 8 30 am temp 35.2 degrees
The Tibetan High is still located close to 20 N parallel ….It is expected to move 5 – 7 N in the next 7 days .
The TEJ should be in place across S.India by this month end according to latest forecasts ……..
This sudden shift is usually said to be a result of an adjustments in thermal wind balance between the lower and higher latitudes with large scale heating shifts in the upper Troposphere …..
Yesterday Hyderabad experienced longest above 40 degree scenario
Temp crossed 40 degrees at around 10 am
remained above 43 degrees till 5 pm in evening
Remained above 40 degrees for more than 7 hours
This is really unusual and it is telling signs of global warming. Now naidu wants to construct ulta modern capital in vijayawada, hottest place in andhra. Think about the capital city hot conditions once it is constructed.
South AP also has more chance for severe TS today, Sriharikota will have more chances for TS today, moisture over NTN and SAP is higher than yesterday.
What about SI Karnataka?
decent chances
Chennai chances are nil
yes
Chennai chances?
Almost Zero!
should be negative
means rains possible?
nop, our chances come next week before onset
Maddy,
500HPA voriticity advection is Warm today afternoon over NTN, means it should bring TS, am i right?
pva ??
yes…
yes nice observation
PDO value in positive.. NTN will be in more drought conditions than in 2003
pdo??
44.4 Degree Celsius, Met Predicts Torrid Time Ahead(Hyderabad)
http://www.newindianexpress.com/states/andhra_pradesh/44.4-Degree-Celsius-Met-Predicts-Torrid-Time-Ahead/2015/05/22/article2827311.ece
I really feel sorry for hyderabad, andhra and north indian cities. Heat in these cities will be killing. Once when I was in hyderabd I experienced that torturous heat. Compared to that, chennai heat is far better.
This is the Difference between Dry Heat and Humidity Heat
Feeling the pinch here in nellore yesterday it was 44
சென்னையில் நேற்று கொளுத்தியது வெயில்: இன்று மேகமூட்டம் (Dinamani) Chennai was very hot yesterday, but today cloudy
TEMP
Will this be beaten today? – a Big No today it may hover around 38 to 39 and the onset sea breeze also will be early today
Monsoon breaks fresh ground in Bay; lagging still over Arabian Sea
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/monsoon-breaks-fresh-ground-in-bay-lagging-still-over-arabian-sea/article7232039.ece
37.1 so far
Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) forecast
http://www.apcc21.org/eng/service/bsiso/fore/japcc030601.jsp#
Maddy,
Potential Vorticity Advection – Warm Phase is Warm Front, which produces thunderstorms and Cold Fronts are producing ACC which is downwelling wind patterns.
Warm front produces only moderate rains. vorticity is highest just ahead of a coldfront
40 possible even today…
Guys,
Is it not mild sea breeze front near the coast, weak dotted line shown in image over east of chennai.
Sea breeze likely in few minutes???
Today the intensity of Westerlies at 300 mts is very less. When sea breeze sets in it will gain in altitiude. If not too the westerlies impact will be less than yesterday. Yesterday temp will be hard to touch today.
Hey Hey for once I was right
Kudos
We are the future
very sad to hear tat many pple have lost their lives in AP due to heatwave..
people are getting irritated by the humidity of Chennai, that is what protecting us….
Exactly.. Dry heat kills.. We are spared from dry heat.
Good point
And few cases turned mad .. beware kea bloggers
Kea bloggers will be mad when nem fails and systems skips tn
Very true.
CAPE, Lifted Index and Convective Index are favourable for moderate thunder storms today evening or night over NTN and SAP.
Friends,
Three cities. Varied weather experience. My observation..Travel n weather.Katpadi- Madras-.Bombay to Madras..
Born in Madras and brought up in Katpadi Township till the age of 14 was probably a blessing in disguise for the simple reason, you get used to extreme temperatures so early in your life. Katpadi and Vellore are synonymous with heat during the day time for better part of the year and also for minimum temperatures dipping to 14 n 15 degrees Celsius in winter as the twin towns are surrounded by hills n its quite natural that it radiates heat and most of times you find Vellore being the first place to register high max temperatures among various cities/ towns of TN
Getting used to Madras weather threw a whole lot of challenges initially as the humidity and the perspiration factor was an experience very difficult to forget. Though as a young boy you hardly worry or keep thinking about temperatures..You live in a carefree world and thinking about weather will naturally be the last among priorities unless you happen to be Susas n Ameens of today.
Moving to Bombay was probably the best thing to happen as you encounter climatology of different kinds. Though Madras n Bombay are coastal cities , you tend to experience different, varied forms of weather right through the year. Like Madras, Bombay too has a short winter if you can call it actually and I can hear someone from Delhi laugh when I talk about Madras/Bombay winter. Though you don’t require any thermal wear in both the cities, Bombay has more of that “chill feel ” for the simple reason that it’s about 1000 kms NW of Madras. Towards mid January n Early February minimum temperatures do dip around 16 n 17 degrees Celsius once in a while.
Off course, when you speak of Bombay weather wise, the cities monsoon has to be spoken about. The monsoon there has a general onset date around June 8 ( plus or minus 3 days) mostly and by and large the arrival is marked by lightning n Thunder and hardly any sluggish start to it. Straightaway the monsoon gets into top gear mood on most occasions and I’ve witnessed 200 to 250 mm recorded in the first spell of rains itself few times. Mostly each spell of rains stretches up to 4 or 5 days n the city gets about 6 to 8 spells of rain in the entire monsoon period starting from June 1st week till about September end. Sometimes, very rarely it does carry onto October 1st week. You normally have monsoon beaks and few times it has even stretched up to 12 to 15 days. July by far is the wettest month in terms of quantum as well as NOS of rain days there. On most occasions the city invariably gets its share of 1800 to 2000 mm of rainfall whatever the conditions prevailing in other parts of the country. I’ve shared few details on well a Mumbaikar prepares himself before SWM.(Monsoon Preparedness).The citizens follow certain routines before and during the monsoon religiously every year without fail. The lakes which provide drinking water to the huge metropolis on most occasions gets filled up by mid August. By September, though the frequency reduces , you get to see some intense spells lasting 45 minutes to one hour. The initial monsoon months like June n July are associated with incessant rains lashing right through the day sometimes. The farewell day of monsoon is always again marked by thunder n lightning and you immediately realize that it’s bidding good bye only to come back next year.
Bombay like most of the western regions of the country has an early summer n you find temperatures touching 37 or a rare 38 in March. The another interesting aspects is the famous October heat which follows culmination of SWM. Believe me, Bombay’s October are more hot sometimes than their actual summer months like March , April n May..
Always felt that one has to witness one full monsoon season at least once in their lifetime.
Thanks for your patience.
Travelling in train and blogging . Shiva sir engeyo poyittenga . Arumai
Thanks Rame.
ushh abba ivlo periya story
Next GTS
Novak i have read your comments about mumbai many times but everytime its interesting to read..its all becoz of ur presentation skills..i witnessed full SWM 3 times, once in mysore/coorg district between july and october 2006, mangalore between jan 2007 till feb 2008 and in pune between may 2008 to dec-2008..SWM is really great but i love chennai rains more than anything becoz of thrill it provides like last week buss..
Thanks WTBSC. Would love to experience SWM rains of other cities or regions of west coast. What to do, I’ve only experienced Bombay rains to share..Yes, nothing to beat the cool n suspense filled NEM rains..
Only 1 part( Bombay) is been discussed where is chennai
chennai will be in dedicated part 2 . lol
I’m Waiting
Madras weather, we all know. Discussed day in day out. Humidity, Sweat, TS, NEM, Mild winter. Off course, the indefatigable KEA Bloggers..What else. Always first Love. My Madras, My City.
Like it .
I can relate to weather in katpadi as I did my schooling in Sunbeam school.
Great..
Was thinking of a title for this story and came up with
“Shiva Win – Weather charitharam!! “
Ahhh ahhh..
Some breathtaking NEM statistics.
——————————————-
This year as we all know, there’s a good chance of el nino + positive IOD. Here are some stats. A big thanks to GTS.
Out of the 14 El Nino events after 1969, NEM has failed only 2 times. That’s a fail % of just 14, which is fantastic!!
5 times it was excess, giving it an excess % of 36, which is also great.
Now, talking about positive IOD, it has also occurred 14 times after 1969. NEM, during positive IOD has a fail % of 28, which is OK. However, it has the same excess %. IN A POSITIVE IOD YEAR, ALL NEM RAINFALL CATEGORIES ARE MORE OR LESS EQUALLY POSSIBLE .
————-
Talking about positive IOD + el nino, the excess %, is a very encouraging 38 %!!
Failure has occurred only once in this combo, giving it a very low 13%.
This year is going to be positive iod & el nino which has been great historically.
Sorry for the structure, i used on screen keyboard as my keyboard stopped working
conclusion is good nem at least this year if not record breaking . Is it ?
high probability of normal/excess NEM
Like it . Need badly this year
not record breaking like 2005 but excess would be welcome
On screen Keyboard??.. You must have had so much of patience..!!
Now temp crossed the 38 degree
Now another best narration from Novak, good to see his writings.
Yes i have been Mumbai 8 times, out of this 8 i have been to Mumbai in April and May for 5 times.
Once during Vinayak Chathurthi in 1997, then during October 1998 and in December end during New Year of 2008.
5 times during summer month of April and May was during school summer vacations from 1990 to 1995, in 1991 i could not go to Mumbai for several reasons. Those days we use to have summer vacations for at least 45 days, nowadays not even for a month, that is different story. During April and May the temp Mumbai around 36 max, but if i see Pune temp in paper it would be around 45C. Mumbai temp was really bearable even though we have high humidity like Chennai, as Chennai would cross 40C.
However during 1997 September Vinayak Chathurthi time, that time the SWM was about to end, so some intermittent spells were there, and it was not hot.
During 1998 post SWM summer, i was getting down in Kalyan stations since my relaitves were in Ambernath. That was horrible. I still remember when i left Chennai in 1998 October the temp was around 33C, but in Mumbai that afternoon i could feel the heat wave. Then that afternoon i left for Bhatia Hospital to see my relative got admitted near Grants Road with full of soaked shirt, then that evening a strong thunder storms occurred and then stayed in Mahim from that day. When i saw that day temp in news, it was 39C. I never saw beyond 36C in April and May, this was surprising and when i asked to my relative, they said it is second summer for them and it will last for at least one month after SWM.
For the next 10 days the summer was horrible, by first week of November there was another thunder storms and from then the winter started to settle and temp was close to 30’s and night temp started to dip below 20C. I could not realise that there were huge climate change in just couple of days from summer to winter. Yes we have been to Winter from Summer in just two days time. I have stayed there till November end and came back to Chennai the last day of November.
As Novak said, MUMBAI is really an enjoyable city, but it cannot compared with any other state capitals in India, that is totally a different place. I too like it.
It was unforgettable second summer of Mumbai in October.
So good to see your post and Shiva post on same lines .. Good going …
Vannakam Rame. Nice to see you back.
I am posting comments in the blog for the past three days . u were missing
Paartha..Super..Yes Bombay has it all.. Bit of cold weather, dry (March n October) humid, fantastic rains.
Pune regularly crosses 40 C most of the time from April till mid may..and the heat is quite unbearable but you have to notice after 5 PM from no where temp dipes to low 20s steadily…evenings and night is much bearable..which is the only drawback i see in chennai during May/June heat
Early morning drizzles here @nagercoil.
Enjoy.
Is there any chances of ts today….
No.
Maddy,
NEM and ELNINO to be compared with 2015 type ELNINO.
The 2015 type ELNINO is emerging during summer monsoon time, if you compare with the same kind of ELNINO years in the past, you can count it by fingers. 1972 & 1997 is like 2015.
1. In 1969 ELNINO arrived late in October, hence NEM was excess.
2. 1972 & 1997 when ELNINO was arrived in May and Positive IOD superseded and gave excess rainfall during NEM. This is like 2015.
3. In 1987, since ELNINO has started in 1986 september itself and continued till 1987 december, it was an longer time ELNINO year, ELNINO started to weaken September 1987, Positive IOD emerged in August, hence it is an unusual year.
4. In 2002 & 2009 ELNINO developed in August and was weak , hence there was no impact.
To Summarize:
Hence If ELNINO arrives in May and Positive IOD developed during the same period then NEM is excess or normal. If ELNINO develops prior to May or after May and before August then those years NEM Fails even though Positive IOD.
2015 Prospect:
In 2015 the same thing happening as ELNINO developing in May and if Positive IOD develops by May or June or July, NEM 2015 should be surplus.
But most el ninos peak at OND or NDJ anyway
maddy,
peaking is fine, but when ELNINO arrived is the matter now.
Pointu pointaa puttu puttu vekarraaru Point Paartha..Super.
OMG. Essay Righting Competition going in KEA. Who’s next ?
yday was congratulations day, today is para day
May be you can share your experience
Gts
GTS is judge
Lol…kumarasamy or kunha?
kunha, fair judge
I had put a disclaimer..Thanks for your patience..
righting ???
corrected sir.
Veppa Salanam Team. When is POP-UP expected.
who are all there in that team?
VS Team Erstwhile Kea Member Sri, Maddy, Jon. It is a limited team.
Sunspot has joined Synoptic Team (Sunspot, PJ, Rao, Jupi and many others)
athu varum aana varathu
OMG !!! Some one has given false alarm of Cyclone Ashobaa over Arabian Sea, IMD has given a press release today and says it is the only responsible body to give any official warning …
Yaaru pa andhu pudhu group kelambi irukarudhu …..
Click to access pressrelease_cyc.pdf
lololol.
IMD has reacted to it strongly …
the only way to make IMD react on time
it has be some-one with good knowledge about weather/cyclones…because he has correctly mentioned ashobaa name…
No No. He puts a warning imediately once GFS shows.
ha ha….yeah, looks like he is following GFS or some pages..andha charts & IOD photos eh engayo patha madhiriyae iruku..
just by googling we can get the upcoming cyclone names in the Indian ocean. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_naming
I know who it is. Its a dumb guy.
https://www.facebook.com/XtremeWeatherForecast
http://www.xtremeweatherforecast.blogspot.in
“We stand by our earlier forecast of monsoons hitting Kerala by May 23-24”
Its a Pakistan based weather blog.
Oh? nice to hear that our neighbors r into weather
Mr.IMD ithkullam fast alert panneringa. Aana Cyclone form aana one day aguthu 1st updateku. Enna matteru ?
Theriyalaye bro …
Sombari guys. Flawed flow of work.
most govt offices are like that..the passport office that is opposite to scope international is also very worst..had a poor experience when getting passpport
no dude..i just applied for my wife n kid recently so systematic and fantastic it was everything automised…min of hours stay with kid (<1 yr) 20 mins…if adult 2 hours atleast…
i had the passport for my wife n kid the very next day…shocked i was.
If we submit proper proofs, it’s very easy… I got it for my wife and my daughter in just 2 days
In Kea Yesterday was Congratulations Day and Today Para Day.
In my company
Wednesday it was Selfie Day.
Yesterday was Food Festival Day.
Today Ethnic Wear Day.
Tommorrow Holiday ?
some IT MNC I guess?
no, it is automobile ancillaries, i am in finance.
Tmrw fancy dress?
Sat sarakku party day!
Temps at 11 30 am
SCCL 45.3 degrees
Ramagundam 42.6 degrees
Rentachintala 41.5 degrees
11.30 itself this much?
Hyd is a bit cool today
yesterday was 44.5 deg..ru in hyd?
yes….
I am in ghatkesar area in Hyderabad, 28 km from IMD begampet
Sea breeze arriving slowly….
Then no 40 today
If its weak, then 40 is reachable
looks like SWM is very much on track..cloud setting in Lakswadeep and maldives proves that..typical progression may very well be early in to kerala
How is south west monsoon set earlier or on date , but north east monsoon not on set every time why delaying not at peak monsoon what is the reason.
Northeast monsoon is typically a retreating southwest monsoon. So the onset totally depends on the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon.
The normal onset is between 17-20 October. But there are instances when the northeast monsoon has set in earlier. Example is 2005 northeast monsoon.
Its 40.0 now..
39.8 – imd
40 wowooi!!!
Same time like yesterday… 2:14
I have not seen GFS fail in two straight days, both of which are intense rains. Will it fail today ?
Veppa Salanam Team ???
Crossed 40+ as per kea metsite….feeling happy but these stupid clouds prevented record temp
why jeet…let it create any record in terms of temp…we had a terrible May Jun 2003 why the hell we want it
At least 42.5+ I want
I will become sick if that happens.. my body never adjusts easily to heat..
Oh ..take care
Do you know how quickly it absorbs the water from well and lakes? sources of water for us.
Then only we can expect monstrous electric squalls
Then why there is deficiency in rain amount 🙂 (example 2012, 2013 etc)
when we expect only next month
Possible…. But month end storms also possible
y u like heat?
Absolutely
Temperature – 40.3°C
Real Feel: 50.5°C
imd alsoo crossed 40 now
Current temp and feel
2.30 PM, temperature touching new highs..40.3 now
Strong surface level westerlies not allowing the sea breeze to set…
Good news
Good news?????
Obviously
Yes preventing record high for the year…hope tmrw it hits new high
Just went for lunch and came, OMG!!!
Temperature hovering around 35 with gusty winds bit uncomfortable though…
OMG Second straight day chennai touched 40s.. Jus reminds my Ahmedabad trip n april, one of the very worst n my life… First time saw 45 deg..
Welcome back…. More similar days ahead for chn
R u have AC in u r room in night?
Why this doubt….pa group asst captain?
Sollunga boss . r u ON the AC on night??
Neenga sollunga…you are right
But i bet u Jeetu only two or three days just OFF u r AC on night then say i like heat …..
I roam outside during day time….so enjoys heat
This is not correct answer just read once again
Either way its correct
R u accepted the challenge???
Which one
OFF the Ac for two days
Lol…most of chennaties have AC ….its common now a days
serri vidu jeetu
Be cool…I knew how it could be..I have experienced during my childhood days paul
ac must need for may,june,july
Even work places got
his wish is like that…we cant compile any one paul
Am not compile any one
Yes…I prefer cyclonic rains than ordinary storms…btw no one is there to summer sun( summer)
Ohhh rocking days ahead.. Similarly squall also possible, let’s wait nd watch who gets jackpot..
Exactly …let your wordings turns out true
Yes jeet before May end, atleast one gud spell will cool down NTN..
100% chances are there
here 40 boss
If dis scenario continues, TS activity will increase over NTN… Dnt wry 🙂
That’s what I want…but many not getting my point
OMG!!!!
Temperature touched 40 c . plz , God help the chennai to have some evening showers …….
Temperat40.2°C
in nellore for work it is already 44 C
sea breeze sets in
Good news
May not be effective to tackle hot westerlies