2,011 thoughts on “Dog days finally returns

  1. Don’t underestimate the power of veppasalanai. Just because today flopped doesn’t mean everyday will. Watchout this evening, the heat trough will prevail, moisture will be available and there is more energy. Better chances of TS for interiors

  2. I’m once again repeating my forecast for today 22/5/2015

    Weather forecast for major cities in India

    Delhi-clear skies with heat wave conditions would prevail. Max and min temperatures would be around 43c and 26c

    Mumbai – partly cloudy skies. max and min temperatures would be around 32c and 30c

    Kolkata – partly cloudy skies turning into cloudy skies light rain may occur. possibly heat wave conditions would prevail. max and min temperatures would be around 43c and 28c

    Chennai – clear skies with heat wave conditions would prevail over city. max and min temperatures would be around 41-42c and 30c

    Banglore – partly cloudy skies. max and min temperatures would be around 35c and 22c

    Hyderabad – clear skies with severe heat wave conditions would prevail. max and min temperatures would be around 44-45c and 29c

    Thiruvananthapuram – partly cloudy skies turning into cloudy skies. light to modrate rains may occur. max and min temperatures would be around 31c and 25c.

  3. Rains will return to Kerala coast tonight. Sri Lanka set to receive first SWM spells. SW Sri Lanka will receive isolated/scattered showers. Kerala will receive isolated rains with a couple of places reaching 4-5 cm. There is a UAC embedded in the E-W shear zone at 3 km a.s.l. at about 7.5 N near Maldives. Watch the date, 22nd morning, SWM sets in SW Sri Lanka. It should cover entire SL in another 5 days.

    • The heat trough still exists, but should weaken soon. Any veppa salanam popups from now onwards will form only in the sea

      • SST gradient is the source for pressure gradients (troughs etc). What’s this heat trough???

      • I guess it was night time for u when I explained earlier today.. Heating is uneven as we know. Certain parts will get heated more. This happened and trough formed from WB to TN coast today (LWD). It is a trough of low triggered by heat or VS. This temperature gradient creates pressure gradient.

  4. 21st May was burning hot like a furnace/burning oven. These veepa salanam phenomenon normally happens in June-July month accompanied by severe thunder/lightening

  5. Yea.. it is a trough caused by VS. Hence heat trough. I’m too sleepy now, will debate on this tomorrow morning(night for u) Good night

  6. Very Uncomfortable day so far this year. Ineffective sea breeze no chillness in the air min temp almost 29 – 30 all over the coast till pamban.

    • Meenambakkam and south chennai will have some chillness as hills are present central and north chennai is uncomfortable.
      Meenambakkam – 27.4
      Nungambakkam – 29.4 as per yesterday.
      Today its nearly 30 – 30.5

  7. Veppa Salanam team. Again today GFS shows the Big Bulb more intense than yesterday. Will it happen.

  8. Strong Westerlies at lower levels. Another Scorching day for sure could end up with 39.5 – 41 today.

  9. According to this gradient level wind analysis chart of 12 UTC yesterday, Chennai had wind speeds of 15 – 30 knots average , mostly westerlies ……….

  10. Kea,
    Are u running in the Mirchi Neon Night Marathon? 🙂 Will they give the Neon accessories for free or shud v pay? 😀

  11. Death toll increases heavily
    eenadu news..
    yesterday highest in AP in durajpalli suryapet with 47.5 degrees
    Telangana sunstroke deaths yesterday 147 people (only yesterday)
    Ap death toll 78 people (only yesterday)

  12. famous indian astrologer Ganesha predicts:
    All in all, though, when it comes to the Monsoons scenario, Ganesha foresees a ‘Normal Monsoon’ for India in 2015, with some unequal distribution of rainfall in various parts of India. Thus, there may be flood-like situations in some parts of the country, while some areas may see shortage of rainfall.

  13. 8 30 am temperatures

    SCCL office 41 degrees (highest ever)
    Suryapet 38.6 degrees (highest ever at 8 30)
    Ramagundam 37 degrees (highest at this time till now)

  14. The Tibetan High is still located close to 20 N parallel ….It is expected to move 5 – 7 N in the next 7 days .
    The TEJ should be in place across S.India by this month end according to latest forecasts ……..
    This sudden shift is usually said to be a result of an adjustments in thermal wind balance between the lower and higher latitudes with large scale heating shifts in the upper Troposphere …..

  15. Yesterday Hyderabad experienced longest above 40 degree scenario

    Temp crossed 40 degrees at around 10 am
    remained above 43 degrees till 5 pm in evening

    Remained above 40 degrees for more than 7 hours

    • This is really unusual and it is telling signs of global warming. Now naidu wants to construct ulta modern capital in vijayawada, hottest place in andhra. Think about the capital city hot conditions once it is constructed.

  16. I really feel sorry for hyderabad, andhra and north indian cities. Heat in these cities will be killing. Once when I was in hyderabd I experienced that torturous heat. Compared to that, chennai heat is far better.

  17. சென்னையில் நேற்று கொளுத்தியது வெயில்: இன்று மேகமூட்டம் (Dinamani) Chennai was very hot yesterday, but today cloudy

  18. Will this be beaten today? – a Big No today it may hover around 38 to 39 and the onset sea breeze also will be early today

  19. Today the intensity of Westerlies at 300 mts is very less. When sea breeze sets in it will gain in altitiude. If not too the westerlies impact will be less than yesterday. Yesterday temp will be hard to touch today.

  20. Friends,

    Three cities. Varied weather experience. My observation..Travel n weather.Katpadi- Madras-.Bombay to Madras..
    Born in Madras and brought up in Katpadi Township till the age of 14 was probably a blessing in disguise for the simple reason, you get used to extreme temperatures so early in your life. Katpadi and Vellore are synonymous with heat during the day time for better part of the year and also for minimum temperatures dipping to 14 n 15 degrees Celsius in winter as the twin towns are surrounded by hills n its quite natural that it radiates heat and most of times you find Vellore being the first place to register high max temperatures among various cities/ towns of TN
    Getting used to Madras weather threw a whole lot of challenges initially as the humidity and the perspiration factor was an experience very difficult to forget. Though as a young boy you hardly worry or keep thinking about temperatures..You live in a carefree world and thinking about weather will naturally be the last among priorities unless you happen to be Susas n Ameens of today.

    Moving to Bombay was probably the best thing to happen as you encounter climatology of different kinds. Though Madras n Bombay are coastal cities , you tend to experience different, varied forms of weather right through the year. Like Madras, Bombay too has a short winter if you can call it actually and I can hear someone from Delhi laugh when I talk about Madras/Bombay winter. Though you don’t require any thermal wear in both the cities, Bombay has more of that “chill feel ” for the simple reason that it’s about 1000 kms NW of Madras. Towards mid January n Early February minimum temperatures do dip around 16 n 17 degrees Celsius once in a while.

    Off course, when you speak of Bombay weather wise, the cities monsoon has to be spoken about. The monsoon there has a general onset date around June 8 ( plus or minus 3 days) mostly and by and large the arrival is marked by lightning n Thunder and hardly any sluggish start to it. Straightaway the monsoon gets into top gear mood on most occasions and I’ve witnessed 200 to 250 mm recorded in the first spell of rains itself few times. Mostly each spell of rains stretches up to 4 or 5 days n the city gets about 6 to 8 spells of rain in the entire monsoon period starting from June 1st week till about September end. Sometimes, very rarely it does carry onto October 1st week. You normally have monsoon beaks and few times it has even stretched up to 12 to 15 days. July by far is the wettest month in terms of quantum as well as NOS of rain days there. On most occasions the city invariably gets its share of 1800 to 2000 mm of rainfall whatever the conditions prevailing in other parts of the country. I’ve shared few details on well a Mumbaikar prepares himself before SWM.(Monsoon Preparedness).The citizens follow certain routines before and during the monsoon religiously every year without fail. The lakes which provide drinking water to the huge metropolis on most occasions gets filled up by mid August. By September, though the frequency reduces , you get to see some intense spells lasting 45 minutes to one hour. The initial monsoon months like June n July are associated with incessant rains lashing right through the day sometimes. The farewell day of monsoon is always again marked by thunder n lightning and you immediately realize that it’s bidding good bye only to come back next year.
    Bombay like most of the western regions of the country has an early summer n you find temperatures touching 37 or a rare 38 in March. The another interesting aspects is the famous October heat which follows culmination of SWM. Believe me, Bombay’s October are more hot sometimes than their actual summer months like March , April n May..

    Always felt that one has to witness one full monsoon season at least once in their lifetime.

    Thanks for your patience.

  21. Some breathtaking NEM statistics.
    ——————————————-
    This year as we all know, there’s a good chance of el nino + positive IOD. Here are some stats. A big thanks to GTS.

    Out of the 14 El Nino events after 1969, NEM has failed only 2 times. That’s a fail % of just 14, which is fantastic!!

    5 times it was excess, giving it an excess % of 36, which is also great.

    Now, talking about positive IOD, it has also occurred 14 times after 1969. NEM, during positive IOD has a fail % of 28, which is OK. However, it has the same excess %. IN A POSITIVE IOD YEAR, ALL NEM RAINFALL CATEGORIES ARE MORE OR LESS EQUALLY POSSIBLE .

    ————-
    Talking about positive IOD + el nino, the excess %, is a very encouraging 38 %!!

    Failure has occurred only once in this combo, giving it a very low 13%.

    This year is going to be positive iod & el nino which has been great historically.

  22. Now another best narration from Novak, good to see his writings.

    Yes i have been Mumbai 8 times, out of this 8 i have been to Mumbai in April and May for 5 times.
    Once during Vinayak Chathurthi in 1997, then during October 1998 and in December end during New Year of 2008.

    5 times during summer month of April and May was during school summer vacations from 1990 to 1995, in 1991 i could not go to Mumbai for several reasons. Those days we use to have summer vacations for at least 45 days, nowadays not even for a month, that is different story. During April and May the temp Mumbai around 36 max, but if i see Pune temp in paper it would be around 45C. Mumbai temp was really bearable even though we have high humidity like Chennai, as Chennai would cross 40C.

    However during 1997 September Vinayak Chathurthi time, that time the SWM was about to end, so some intermittent spells were there, and it was not hot.

    During 1998 post SWM summer, i was getting down in Kalyan stations since my relaitves were in Ambernath. That was horrible. I still remember when i left Chennai in 1998 October the temp was around 33C, but in Mumbai that afternoon i could feel the heat wave. Then that afternoon i left for Bhatia Hospital to see my relative got admitted near Grants Road with full of soaked shirt, then that evening a strong thunder storms occurred and then stayed in Mahim from that day. When i saw that day temp in news, it was 39C. I never saw beyond 36C in April and May, this was surprising and when i asked to my relative, they said it is second summer for them and it will last for at least one month after SWM.

    For the next 10 days the summer was horrible, by first week of November there was another thunder storms and from then the winter started to settle and temp was close to 30’s and night temp started to dip below 20C. I could not realise that there were huge climate change in just couple of days from summer to winter. Yes we have been to Winter from Summer in just two days time. I have stayed there till November end and came back to Chennai the last day of November.

    As Novak said, MUMBAI is really an enjoyable city, but it cannot compared with any other state capitals in India, that is totally a different place. I too like it.

    It was unforgettable second summer of Mumbai in October.

    • Paartha..Super..Yes Bombay has it all.. Bit of cold weather, dry (March n October) humid, fantastic rains.

      • Pune regularly crosses 40 C most of the time from April till mid may..and the heat is quite unbearable but you have to notice after 5 PM from no where temp dipes to low 20s steadily…evenings and night is much bearable..which is the only drawback i see in chennai during May/June heat

  23. Maddy,

    NEM and ELNINO to be compared with 2015 type ELNINO.

    The 2015 type ELNINO is emerging during summer monsoon time, if you compare with the same kind of ELNINO years in the past, you can count it by fingers. 1972 & 1997 is like 2015.

    1. In 1969 ELNINO arrived late in October, hence NEM was excess.

    2. 1972 & 1997 when ELNINO was arrived in May and Positive IOD superseded and gave excess rainfall during NEM. This is like 2015.

    3. In 1987, since ELNINO has started in 1986 september itself and continued till 1987 december, it was an longer time ELNINO year, ELNINO started to weaken September 1987, Positive IOD emerged in August, hence it is an unusual year.

    4. In 2002 & 2009 ELNINO developed in August and was weak , hence there was no impact.

    To Summarize:
    Hence If ELNINO arrives in May and Positive IOD developed during the same period then NEM is excess or normal. If ELNINO develops prior to May or after May and before August then those years NEM Fails even though Positive IOD.

    2015 Prospect:
    In 2015 the same thing happening as ELNINO developing in May and if Positive IOD develops by May or June or July, NEM 2015 should be surplus.

  24. looks like SWM is very much on track..cloud setting in Lakswadeep and maldives proves that..typical progression may very well be early in to kerala

  25. How is south west monsoon set earlier or on date , but north east monsoon not on set every time why delaying not at peak monsoon what is the reason.

    • Northeast monsoon is typically a retreating southwest monsoon. So the onset totally depends on the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon.

      The normal onset is between 17-20 October. But there are instances when the northeast monsoon has set in earlier. Example is 2005 northeast monsoon.

  26. I have not seen GFS fail in two straight days, both of which are intense rains. Will it fail today ?

  27. Crossed 40+ as per kea metsite….feeling happy but these stupid clouds prevented record temp

  28. Temperature hovering around 35 with gusty winds bit uncomfortable though…

    OMG Second straight day chennai touched 40s.. Jus reminds my Ahmedabad trip n april, one of the very worst n my life… First time saw 45 deg..

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