Uncomfortable days are back

As expected peak summer has started in chennai. Last 2-3 days maximum has been rising rapidly. Yesterday chennai recorded highest of the year at 38.6c. Same dry and hot weather is expected to prevail for next few weeks.

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2,080 thoughts on “Uncomfortable days are back

  1. During some years SWM TS occurred in Chennai on the same day of the onset in Kerela.Will this happen this year ?Can we expect SWM onset over Kerela during next week itself ?

  2. Blore city 39mm
    Max in east 36mm
    Max in south 56mm
    Max in north 51mm

    Banaswadi 32mm
    Beniganahalli 20mm

    East missed second storm by whisker yesterday 😦

    • Rain started in south (JP Nagar/Bannergutta road) by 9:00 PM.. But scored good.. came late but banged… It was medium intensity rain for 1-1.5 hour…

  3. latest cpc outlook expects no deviation scenarios for the nxt 2 weeks across Indian region and the surrounding seas as well……
    MTC expected to face below average rains for the same period ……..

  4. May rains and Madras…Just last week we expected the conditions to favour us in terms of rains, only few select areas were lucky to get some intense showers..We are all aware that historically our city is never known to get any meaningful rains in the month of May..Interiors to large extent (almost upto 30 kms from our coast) do get May showers..Just had a glance at the rainfall figures for May for Nungambakkam..It goes like this. for May..

    2014————13.8 mm
    2013————3.6 mm.
    2012————.0 mm
    2011————12.6 mm
    2010————204 mm (Laila)
    2009————14.6 mm
    2008————-1.6 mm,
    2007 ————.0.2 mm,
    2006————-.17.8 mm,
    2005————–31 mm,
    2004————–.210.6 mm (ARB 01)
    2003————–.0.5 mm,
    2002————– .17 mm,
    2001————–19 mm,
    2000————–.22mm..

    If we have a look a the above rainfall figures for Nungambakkam in the month of May, its quite clear we need a system like Laila (2010) or ARB 01 (2004) to give us rains…For some reason or other North Coastal regions fail to get any help from conditions like UAC..I’m sure there would have been favourable conditions since 2000 for other regions of TN to get rainfall and the same conditions do not seem to favour coastal regions (upto 30 kms from the coast) to get any meaning full rainfall..History clearly shows…Hence are we right in expecting rains in the month of May if there is no strong system in the bay or ARB?? There should be some definitive reasons for the coastal regions (upto to 30 Kms) not to get any rains..Why it doesn’t?? History shows the facts…

    Hence we have to think..It MAY rain in Madras..99.9% it MAY not,,,,

    • north coastal regions Ponneri got 91 mm and Mahabalipuram 70 mm. Chennai was unlucky to miss out the rains.

      • Even nearby places
        Tiruvallur – 41mm
        Poonamallee – 37mm
        Nunga only 8mm 😦

      • Right Pradeep, ive mentioned that few select areas got intense showers,,Overall month of May doesn’t augur well for North coastal regions within 25 to 30 Kms range..Madras region in particular,,,

      • Not ruling out anything..If it improves, it’s most welcome….My only worry is the consistency part in we not getting any rains in this month. Except for a system helping us.

  5. Theni and Virudhunagar get heavy rains, Tamil Nadu Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 19.05.2015
    ===================================
    An east west shear zone between 1.5 & 3.6 kms a.s.l. extends roughly along Lat 10° N across south Peninsula.

    in mm (min 15 mm)

    Veerapandi, Theni – 76
    Thiruchuzhi, Virudhunagar – 66
    Alangudi, Pudukkottai – 57
    Uttamapalayam, Theni – 46
    Kallal, Sivaganga – 42
    Kanyakumari, Kanyakumari – 39
    Chinnakalar, Coimbatore – 35
    Anaikadangu, Kanyakumari – 34
    Arimalam, Pudukkottai – 33
    Nagercoil, Kanyakumari – 30
    Coonoor, Nilgiris – 29
    Mambazhathriyaru, Kanyakumari – 28
    Chellampatti, Madurai – 27
    Karamadai, Coimbatore – 26
    Tirupathur, Sivaganga – 25
    Kovilankulam, Virudhunagar – 23
    Munchirai, Kanyakumari – 23
    Mettupalayam, Coimbatore – 22
    Coonoor PTO, Nilgiris – 22
    Kottar, Kanyakumari – 22
    Sedapatti, Madurai – 21
    Killiyoor, Kanyakumari – 21
    Thanjavur, Thanjavur – 20
    Gudalur, Theni – 20
    Thuckalay, Kanyakumari – 19
    Keeranur, Pudukkottai – 18
    Peraiyur, Madurai – 18
    Mettupatti, Madurai – 18
    Aranmanaipudur, Theni – 18
    Sanmuganadhi, Theni – 17
    Karaikudi, Sivaganga – 16
    Colachel, Kanyakumari – 15
    Bhoothapandy, Kanyakumari – 15
    Annur, Coimbatore – 15
    Illuppur, Pudukkottai – 15
    Mylaudy, Kanyakumari – 15
    Illayangudi, Sivaganga – 15
    Ottapadiram, Toothukudi – 15
    Narikudi, Virudhunagar – 15
    Sothuparai, Theni – 15
    Kannimar, Kanyakumari – 15

    Kea Weather – http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1351

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/2015-tamil-nadu-rainfall-data.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

  6. Photos from Matt Walter’s post in Cloud Enthusiasts :-))) !!!

    “Rider of the Storm.” On the road between Fort Davis and Alpine, Texas, 19 May 2015.

  7. Dear all

    Good morning.
    Heat is back yesterday,felt uncomfortable but this is what we always know.
    thankfully this time we had cooler May for the first 15days,thanks to UAC
    SWM monsoon setting is on the cards this month.
    westerlies would get stronger.
    days will be warmer.
    we will have discussion about sea breeze,westerlies and TS formation.
    And our favourite log experts christened” bubble storms” to hit chennai.

    lets al wait for the TS during SWM in the coming months.

    as usual blog experts rocking!!!!
    best wishes once again and happy to be a small part of blog.

  8. Today humidity is less compare to yesterday..So feels like may not raise more ( like 50+ yesterday)..Hoping..

  9. Expecting the max temperatures to touch 40 for four successive days starting today. . By 12 it should touch 40 I guess today.

  10. If we manage not to cross 40 C in the next 2 days. We can be sure that we will not cross 40 in may.

  11. A few days before onset, we have slight chances of rain. An upper air trough is likely to dip and get moisture from BOB. It will trigger TS in Telangana and AP which might move into TN. But of course it’s long range

      • Trough wont have closed isobars. While circulation will have closed isobars.

      • Yes. Circulation as we all know is an area of low pressure. Winds spiral into them from areas with higher pressure. They key point to note in a circulation is the fact that wind flows into it from all the sides because it is isobars are spread evenly and in a circular pattern. They are barotropic

        Troughs dip only in one direction, like a hyperbola or a parabola. The axis of symmetry is more or less the axis of the trough. But, there won’t be a circulation pattern in all sides. Suppose there’s a low to the north, there will be a hyperbola like structure dipping south. The isobars will be semi-circular or hyperbolical and it will spread in one direction. The area near the axis will see convergence and thunderstorms if moisture is found

      • how can a layment interpret this in a mslp chart or uppper level chart sir. U are genuis sir. We are not.

      • PJ,

        We will try to learn it.. You know when i started to follow this blog i never used to understand even a single technical post but now as i have been following it for nearly 3 yrs i am atleast able to get what you ppl are talking about. I can see slight improvement in myself, though not major but still significant enough

  12. Sothuparai dam in theni is full, many dams in Tirunelveli is full, Yesterday Veeranam is full. Today Krishnagiri dam is full. Aliyar Dam is nearly full. Mukkadal, Chittar I & II, Perunchani in KK are nearing full level. What else a May can give.

    • With yday’s 55mm rain, sahakaranagar is now at 334mm for the year…. way behind city IMD though, but ahead of HAL AP 🙂

      • unfortunately my mail to KSNDMC has had no effect…. kodigehalli continues to under-report arnd 10-15%…. always my RG and yuktix hebbal AWS (which is infact not in hebbal and closer to sahakarnagar) record more than kodigehalli (kodigehalli RG is almost exactly inbetween my RG and yuktix hebbal)
        Even yday yuktix hebbal got 53mm where as kodigehalli recorded 47mm…. i’m sure its more.

      • City at 42cm+. I remember an year where HAL AP got 35cm or so in summer whereas city got 18cm.. However city overtook HAL AP so much in SWM that finally city led HAL AP by end of year by 10cm or so.. Forgot which year.. Reverse scenario also happened once..

      • Oh ok, I dont remember this one…. btw this 42cm will be one of the highest rains that city IMD has received from Jan-May of a calendar year…. is there some way to check this?

  13. 40c in chennai as of now is doubtful only because one can experience sea breeze setting little earlier around 1 pm so if this scenario prevails then 40c is doubtful only

  14. Bhoothapandy (Kanyakumari Dist), Thuckalay (Kanyakumari Dist)

    8 each

    Colachel (Kanyakumari Dist)

    7

    Pechiparai (Kanyakumari Dist), Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari Dist)

    5 each

    Eraniel (Kanyakumari Dist)

    4

  15. Today most of the Tamilnadu will have a dry weather. TS chances for Krishnagiri and Parts of Vellore dist & Ghat areas of Tamilnadu . Kerala will have Moderate Rains.

  16. El Nino conditions strengthening over tropical Pacific, says Australian Met

    ———————————-

    MJO WAVE

    It was referring to the periodical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave that travels periodically to the east across the Indian Ocean, which boosts convection and cloudiness at the ground level.

    But the monsoon can prevail even without MJO, provided the onset pulse gathers the required strength and intensity on its own to drive itself north along the west coast of India.

    Apart from triggering the onset of the monsoon, the MJO wave has also been responsible for setting up low-pressure areas, depressions, and even storms.

    The Australian Met did not see an MJO moving over the Indian Ocean for at least the next two weeks.

    http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/el-nino-conditions-strengthening-over-tropical-pacific-says-australian-met/article7226474.ece

  17. My take on SWM onset – I predicted that SWM onset would be around May 30th a few weeks back. But now that we are closer than before to SWM onset, it is possible to analyze the conditions and accurately predict SWM onset region wise.

    IMD has a few conditions to declare onset. Out of these, the important ones are deep westerlies in the box from 55 E to 80 E upto lat 10 and 15-20 knots 925 mb winds. Rainfall criteria will co-incide with OLR.

    These conditions are going to get satisfied thanks to the intensification of the heat low over Ganga Plains. This is going trigger SWM.

    SWM will reach Sri Lanka around May 27th. It will push upto Kerala coast by May 30th. Give it + or – 2-3 days. It will be declared in that period provided rainfall criteria is satisfied

    • KSNDMC nearest stations for me are beniganahali and banaswadi.. Do you need IMD stations or KSNDMC stations?

    • Kodigehalli is just over 1km from my house (this under-reports and i’ve mailed KSNDMC also, but no change) and Byatarayanapura is arnd 2kms – these 2 are the closest. Is it possible to get the max. total rainfall that Bangalore city IMD has recorded in Jan to May of a calendar year? I feel this year it should be one of the highest.

  18. Weather forecast for major cities in India

    Delhi – partly cloudy skies with light rains may occur in evening. max and min temperatures would be around 41c and 27c

    Mumbai – partly cloudy skies with isolated showers may occur. max and min temperatures would be around 33c and 29c

    Kolkata – cloudy skies with scattered heavy thunderstorms would occur. max and min temperatures would be around 34c and 28c

    Chennai – clear skies with high cirrus clouds hovering around. max and min temperatures would be around 38c and 29c.

    Banglore – partly cloudy skies with thunderstorms in evening can’t be ruled out. max and min temperatures would be around 34c and 22c.

  19. Updated susa’s explanation about Upper Air Trough and Upper Air Circulation in Weather for new bies:

    http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1314

    Excellent explanation from him but the thing is i had to read it nearly 10 times to completely understand it.

    btw i tried to post a picture that he depicted to me but for some reason pic is not getting updated. Can somebody update the pic pls so that new bies will easily understand it

  20. Flash News,

    OMG!!!
    May Jamstec Forecast has come out.

    Looks Pathetic for SWM across the country.

    1. Positive IOD likely by August. Not a good news for SWM performance. This IOD

    likely to peak in September, the consistency in IOD and ELNINO likely in August and September.

    2. Precipitation anomaly shows only Odisha, Chattisgarh, WB, Jharkand and Coastal Kerala likely to receive excess rainfall. West UP and Uttarkhand likely to get Normal Rainfall and other areas will receive below normal. West coast and NW India to be

    worst hit.

    3. ELNINO likely to peak to a new high by August, as per the forecast of SST increase expected over Central and East Pacific, this might not affect SWM as the descending of air will not happen over Indian Ocean since West Pacific SST to be normal.

    4. NEM rainfall likely to be above normal.

    The consistency of ENSO and IOD by August and September will get good NEM rainfall this year.

    Still i feel that SWM forecast may go other way, but they were on target in 2014.

      • I explained below, see that. Trough will have area of convergence as well as divergence, same with ridge. Except that trough is a low by nature and ridge is a high by nature, so you won’t see thunderstorms in convergent ridges

      • If the isobars are too close to each other u call it trough and if they are far away u call it ridge is it?

      • More than the way the isobars are interspersed, you need to notice the pressure. If pressure decreases towards the centre, it is a trough. If it increases towards the centre, it is a ridge. It is basically focusing on one side of an LPA or a high. Watch the circulation pattern. If it is anti-clockwise in N hemisphere, it is trough. Clockwise it is ridge

      • No isobars packed closely doesn’t mean that way . It just represents the steepness in gradient of pressure between the system in consideration and its surroundings

  21. FLASH NEWS!!!
    Latest JAMSTEC forecast shows a below normal SWM for most parts of the country except Orissa and WB!

  22. Jupi,

    Partner we have posted it in good timing.

    SWM forecast looks pathetic as per Jamstec, why because they say Positive IOD likely by August and Peaking by October.
    But other models say that Positive IOD likely by May end or June, this is the difference in Jamstec.

    Also if you see the SST anomaly of Pacific, they abnormal temp only from Central to East Pacific, West going to be Normal, hence descending of air will not happen in West and in Indian Ocean.

    Jamstec bought the forecast right in 2014, but i still feel that by seeing SSTA forecast in mind and IOD likely in June as per other models, SWM will be Normal this time.

  23. You have to see the difference of ELNINO in 1997 and 2002.

    1997 was greatest of ELNINO in history, but we got normal SWM, why because the SST was above normal from Central to East Pacific, so it did not impact the 850 HPA winds over India, but 2002 ELNINO was not powerful but it did affected SWM, because SST was above normal from West to East Pacific.

    Unless West Pacific is affected, we don’t need to worry, SSTA forecast suggests cooling off over West Pacific expected from June.

    Underline my word, Do Not See ENSO Values, instead look at SST Values.

  24. Yesterday 45.4 degrees max temp in ramagundam….Today temp trend is 2 degrees higher…it may be around 47

    • how do people manage that high temp’s…??
      we chennaities feel it difficult for 37-38’s
      so poor people government needs to give them free AC speciality rooms…

  25. every year so many people die in andhra due to sunstroke. Hope naidu govt is focussed on this issue as well apart from encountering poor tamil nadu labourers.

  26. Andhra temperature will reduce in june not as like chennai……….chennai will face heat wave in june

  27. june rainfall over chennai for past 5 years:
    2014-104mm
    2013- 35mm
    2012-28mm
    2011-130mm
    2012-137mm
    Note:( in that 90% of rain occured in june20- june30)

  28. South west monsoon figures for chennai :
    2014- 515mm
    2013-617mm
    2012-407mm
    2011-852mm
    2010-647mm
    (note: most rains occured in august and september)

  29. There is nothing called a SWM failure for chennai. Just 1 strong TS can bring down the deficit. The concern is the rainfall until june. We are already in deficit of 90 mm. We have a lot of catch up to do

  30. Chintamani 46mm.. Blore city 42 cm till now this year and hal ap 29 cm..just like last year the gap b/w city and hal is slowly getting bigger..

  31. Western coastal areas like Kerala and south Karnataka will start to get daily pre-monsoon showers from May 25th/26th due to the weakening of the Somalian disturbance and its concurrent movement inland…

    By the last few days of May, around 29th or 30th, an UAC will flare up near the Andamans from the current trough which is going to exist for a week. This UAC will move N/NW towards WB/Orissa coast, helping the SWM’s advancement in BOB and triggering onset rains in East India in June first week..

    A bit earlier than that, the SWM would advance forward in ARB affecting Sri Lanka by 27th and Kerala coasts by 30th, bringing in heavy showers aided by the BOB system.

    The BOB system in its formative stage, if close enough might trigger heavy thunderstorms in TN and AP. Don’t rule out Chennai’s rains this May.

    • This UAC is very promising, but we need to know which side of the UAC will have moisture filled.

      The lower level winds at 700 HPA is from NE as like 500 HPA levels, but 850 HPA travels in the opposite side from WNW direction. The more promising level would be 850 HPA wind level, which can bring TS from West during this time of the year.

      Also if UAC forms over SE of Chennai, will bring more moisture to Chennai like September month 2013.

    • Somalian disturbance (a temporary/or sometimes strong wave gets initiated) is part of SWM mechanism of arabian branch.

      • Yea but SWM branch ones will move NE towards Gujarat/Pakistan. This one is not influenced by SWM yet, so the faster it moves towards west, the better

      • It’s moved NE direction for a while. It’s not the strong surge to move in NE direction. Expecting next wave will move in NE direction. Moreover SST near Somalia will cool after the real SWM surge starts.

      • Yea. This one reorganized towards NE, will move west from now onwards. Currently it is stealing SWM moisture and prevent pre-monsoon rains

      • These waves are very dangerous if they intensifies and travel inNW direction, then it can swallow completely SWM currents (at the same time enhances the SWM strength). Gonu-2007 super cyclone started like this. Even 2014 we had this type system.

  32. Bangalore the gifted city of south. When we are murmering about kathiri, sister city is sitting cool at max of 32 C and minimum of atrocious 19 C. What nonsense this height above sea level is doing for chennai

      • trivandrum is like chennai but gets rains every time. It is also hot and humid like chennai during non rainy days.

      • I have been to Trivandrum Jeetu. It is humid in Trivandrum but not like Chennai. One special thing is it have rain almost 11months in a year. February which is the only driest month

  33. Chennai and its suburbs at all directions might see TS before 25th, could not say the
    date exactly.

    As the 850 HPA steering winds are falling down the latitude with high velocity along with SAP moisture towards Chennai. So we will get a chance before 25th.

      • There are many ways and theories.. tough to explain all of them. Different types of troughs form in different ways

      • One of the example i can give is that the wind shift, due to this the two sides of a trough will have temperature difference, this is called a weather fronts.

        The line of a trough will have stable pressure, the two sides will have difference in wind pressure.

        In westerlies in mid latitude the west side of trough will have HPA, the descending air and convergence, and east side will be LPA, the divergence zone.

        Troughs may be at the surface or at upper level or both under various conditions. Most troughs bring clouds, showers, and a wind shift, particularly following the passage of the trough.

    • Do Yercaud get any Heavy TS activity during SWM Susa? I have seen Yercaud has an annual rainfall of 160-180 CM.

      • Yes, especially in summer and from August-early October. It also gets more rain than the surroundings during NEM

  34. i not only love rains i love summer too.. Because it is also a part of weather like rainfall

  35. Kerala continues to get very heavy rains before monsoon, ending 8.30 am on 20.05.2015
    ============================
    The shear zone now runs along Lat.11.0°N between 3.6 & 5.8 km above mean sea level

    in mm (min 15 mm)

    Kayamkulam Agri – 106
    Thenmala – 87
    Punalur – 75
    Cherthala – 62
    Aryankavu – 56
    Trivandrum AP – 47
    Kollam – 47
    Vaikom – 46
    Thodupuzha – 46
    Varkala – 44
    Alappuzha – 44
    Peringamala – 42
    Nedumangad – 41
    Trivandrum – 41
    Kayamkulam – 35
    Mancompu – 34
    Angadippuram – 34
    Kozha – 26
    Neyyattinkara – 22
    Piravom – 19
    Neeriyamangalam – 17
    Mankara – 17
    Haripad – 15

    Kea Weather – http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1354

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

  36. one thing I observed in kerala was when it rains , it rains very fluently without much noise and you will be surprised to see readings of 4,10, 12 CM at the end of the day. No water will be stagnating and you would not have got the feel of 4CM rain which you normally feel in chennai.

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