Today is the Last Chance for Chennai to get Rains before the start of dry days

This UAC is one of the longest we have seen for a while, extending into 7th day. The Unique thing is it is in May. Tommorrow the moisture is good from upper to surface level near North TN coast. The UAC is embedded in the east west shear zone in 700 hpa levels with another UAC near North TN. From my experience a east-west shear zone always results in formation of LPA. The 700 hpa wind with RH is given below

GFS 17th May - 700 hpa

The key level 500 hpa filled with moisture. Tommorrow criteria ticks all tabs for Rains in Chennai. If this does not give rains to Chennai then what will ?

GFS 17th May - 500 hpa

The GFS Precipatation Chart show the rains extending into Chennai. The rains will higher just below Pondy and it extends all along North TN South AP coast.

GFS 17th May

Note:

  1. Dont expect the rains to be right over house. This is not NEM, some places in Chennai may miss out.
  2. Dont get frustrated seeing the radar. This is May anything is bonus. Even cooler climate.
  3. If there is no rains in your place, analyze the reasons so we can use it as a learning curve rather than complaining.
  4. Dont get frustrated. We cant rule nature, which has its own way and it is beyond our control.

1,481 thoughts on “Today is the Last Chance for Chennai to get Rains before the start of dry days

  1. If there is no rains tommorrow, i am going to take a long break till SWM rains in Chennai.

  2. The pressure of predicting Rains in Chennai is too much. No wonder Ehsan, keeps it simple. It like writing 12th Exam and waiting for results within a day. Our Blog Expectation is sky high. Hopefully, it should rain for atleast our bloggers sake.

  3. Its the turn of Andhra Pradesh to get Heavy Rains, ending 8.30 am 16.05.2015
    =====================================
    The cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep and adjoining Kerala coast persists and extends upto 3.6 kms a.s.l.

    in mm (min 30 mm)

    Tenali – 100
    Atmakur – 93
    Sangam – 84
    Deebaguntla – 74
    Halaharvi – 68
    Jonnagiri – 59
    Bommanahal – 58
    Gorantla – 48
    Irugulam – 47
    Atmakur – 46
    Bhudawarapupeta – 45
    Guntakal – 43
    Atmakur – 43
    Yerraguntla – 43
    Tuggali – 43
    Kurnool – 42
    Ellutla – 41
    Sattenapalle – 38
    Holagunda – 38
    Ojili – 38
    Kammarachedu – 37
    Gudur – 37
    Lepakshi – 35
    Kondakamarla – 35
    Hindupur – 35
    Santhamaguluru – 35
    Dibbanakal – 35
    Adurupalli – 35
    Kalyandrug – 35
    Yellarthy – 35
    Ganekal – 34
    Chanti Bridge – 33
    Alur – 30
    Gonegandla – 30
    Gudur – 30
    Pedda Bodhanam – 30
    Marutla – 30
    Pulagampalle – 30

    Kea Weather – http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1354

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

  4. Telangana joins the party, Rainfall ending 8.30 am 16.05.2015
    =====================================
    The cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep and adjoining Kerala coast persists and extends upto 3.6 kms a.s.l.

    in mm (min 30 mm)

    Chennaraopet – 72
    Khanapur – 68
    Dichpalle – 63
    Kerameri – 62
    Kapulakanaparthy – 62
    Medak – 61
    Pargi – 61
    Thangula – 57
    Gandhari – 55
    Narsampet – 52
    Lingalaghanpur – 52
    Aswapuram – 49
    Kollapur – 49
    Sirpur – 47
    Doma – 46
    Thimmaraopeta – 46
    Bharampur – 46
    Mangalparthy – 45
    Shivanooru – 45
    Madnur – 40
    Nizam Sagar – 40
    Manoharbad – 38
    Kothagudem – 36
    Gannaram – 35
    Urkonda – 35
    Gundala – 34
    Kalher – 34
    Jangaon – 34
    Inole – 32
    Adilabad – 32
    Kathlapur – 31
    Gopalpeta – 30
    Kothapet – 30
    Sangem – 30
    Medapalle – 30
    Ghanpur – 30
    Sultanabad – 30
    Pegadapalle – 30
    Siddipet – 30
    Wanaparthy – 30

    Kea Weather – http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1354

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

  5. Have been following the blog for 6months now. It’s My first post. Let’s hope that this UAC brings spell across Chennai

    • may be agni show true colour from tmrw….. today some passing shower expected before noon in madurai..

  6. Intermittent heavy passing shower lashed from 3-5am over ramnad-pamban stretch… Heavy winds reported again..

  7. i think the direction is SW to NE…looks like we need to wait for storms form over land to cause rains….

  8. Rains are possible only from S/SW and not from E/SE due to Cyclonic Circulation to the ENE of Chennai. Might See Rains Afternoon/Evening/ Night.

  9. Seeing the direction of wind, i feel the chances of rains are more towards evening as in regular SWM period. Lets see. The TS bands are also currently showing same trend.

  10. we are happy for the cooler climate we enjoyed although not a single droplet we received in chennai. Hope the cooler climate continues further.

    • 18-May, As the low-level N-S trough from Bihar to N Tamilnadu all along S-E coast of India gets established the Day & Night temp will go Up.
      From Monday, the day, night temp will rise considerably along entire S-E coast upto N,central Tamilnadu, Chennai.
      On Wednesday, 20-May, the day temp for Chennai can touch 39 C or even 40 C
      Sunday…
      #Chennai – moderate / light rain expected before 2pm.
      #Bangalore – 1 or 2 T showers expected.
      Rainfall over Tamilnadu, Kerala will reduce from Sunday midnight.
      And
      Drastically go down after Monday evening.
      For 24hrs… more rain forecast for N-E Andhra, S,central,N-E Odisha and into S Bengal !

  11. Bay is very active but all the TS that have formed till now are at a considerable distance from the land

    • I think we have a good chance of getting showers post afternoon as land TS may start forming only by post afternoon

  12. Blore city 66mm. Beniganahalli 42mm banaswadi 46mm. Beniganahalli 28cm for the year. Around 8cm behind city

  13. Feel bad for chennai. This year has been very unlucky till now. Hope things change soon. Almost every other place has received good rainfall

    • not every other place whole india even dry desert regions got rain..pity on rain god…chennai born to be unlucky…

  14. The circulation which persisted off the coast of chennai has weakened.The disturbance started to move away from TN.If there is any thunderstorm which is going to form , it would form only in evening or night.

      • Dont expect too much :).We still have a chance of evening or night rain but probability continue to decrease as disturbance is moving away from the coast.

    • Prognosis does not look that good. Today evening and monday early morning rains are a possibility. As far as chennai is concerned this is a Rogue system .:-)

      • it had a very disorganized clouds , there was no proper circulation in this system. Yesterday there was a circulation off coast of chennai .i Thought we would get good rains but today morning it just vanished

      • We still have the possibility of rains in evening or night which would be caused more due to heating.

  15. The disturbance off the coast of kerela has become pretty visible in satellite picture and it will produce heavy rains for western ghats area.

    • North Bangalore was the biggest beneficiary in the last 2 days.
      it is really cool this morning. Need some sort of heating this afternoon for some good rains this evening.

      • Heating has already started. Sun is out and warmness creeps in. Evening TS is a possibility.

  16. Since the captain of our Blog moved to Karnataka the clouds also moved by
    Shatabdi Express.Those who want rain can go to Bangalore for a while

    • we still have the system nearby.normally when there is a system nearby even though its moving away we might get the rains evening/night which is mostly hit or miss.Many times under the same conditions chennai did get good rainfall but equally under the same conditions we did not get any rains too.Lets see

  17. Please dont rule out rains today. With this wind pattern expecting morning rains is no use and glued to radar from morning is waste of time. Let the hours go. Today looks the best chance ever for rain in Chennai.

  18. someone told before that…we think for rains from the system but in the end we end with Veppa salanam rains
    who is that…? no idea for me… hats off to that person

  19. Again I am getting buss.yesterday someone told Tom is our best chances and told to my relation that we can expect rains from morning.bt buss

  20. Guys,

    Dont get disappointed,

    How many times KEA bloggers went wrong, if something goes on rare situation, it is fine.

    without basic educational background related to weather and by analysing the factors we said it will rain for the past few days and it did rain and that too during peak summer.

  21. Conditions are perfect as stated yesterday for thunderstorms to develop in interiors, Be patient and trust in convection and heating. Wait for strong TS to form from SW

  22. The LPA is at the same place at the surface level as an elongated trough off Kerala, but a circulation has formed off AP coast as expected. This is the descent of the sheared circulation at BOB at 700 hPa close to Chennai. These are triggering heavy TS, but only in the sea and wind is from SW for us unfortunately, but was expected. However, it intensified more than expectations and has triggered strong SWM winds.

    There is an elongated trough (EW shear zone) which runs from Kerala coast till AP coast slicing through TN. Combined with today’s heating, massive thunderstorms will form in the interiors, especially in interior C TN and interior S TN. So the sooner the wind shift to SW, the better for us. But the unexpected BOB intensification has spoilt the overnight thunderstorm development in the interiors. But they will form when there is heating like today. Hope for the best from those.

    We might see thunderstorms in the northeastern states.

    A WD with upper air circulation over North India is going to move through E and ENE subsequently, but won’t cause any rains today due to lack of moisture

  23. I am also looking at East to West Shear Zone roughly at 11N over TN and 12N near North Coastal TN at 3.0 KM above sea level is influencing the TS movement over NTN, this is why TS over E and SE of Chennai moving in NE direction.

    This shear zone influence has to weaken, so that we might see some TS activity over NTN.

    This is my view.

  24. From the 2 disturbance ,it looks like the Somalian system is going to become better organized than the bay.

  25. Trough’s pull has initiated violent thunderstorms from SW winds in Tvm and KK districts.. Some places in S TN got hit hard

  26. SWM advancement over Bay is superfast, North Bay will onset will be soon in a week time, also Kerala will get SWM 2 days earlier than expected, as per my early forecast between 27th to 29th, this early onset is due to above normal SST prevailing over West Indian Ocean since first week of April, this might bring temporary Positive IOD during Kerala Onset.

    June rainfall will above normal over West Coast and some parts of East Coast as well.

    Strong onset is expected over Kerala, Coastal KTK and Goa in West Coast, and over Odisha and WB in the east coast. These regions will get above normal rainfall in June, July might be little below or near normal, but overall the monsoon untill July will be Normal.

    July and August NE states, Odisha, Central India will get Normal to Above Normal Rainfall.
    North India will get near normal rainfall during the same time.

    Overall SWM will be Normal in 2015.

    TN and Chennai might get near normal TS rainfall during June to September.

    If we take 1997 ELNINO year as an example we got below normal rainfall in Chennai during SWM, because ELNINO was strongest in history, but that year positive IOD was set in July, but that is the difference now in 2015 since Positive IOD likely during Kerala onset itself.

    In Chennai June rainfall will be below normal, July will be in excess and August will be normal, September will be low, overall Chennai rainfall during June to September will be below normal to normal category.

  27. Rainfall in southern coastal areas from monstrous banded thunderstorms (BTS this time :3)
    * = Kerala

    ————————-
    Kottayam – 126 (Thanks Venkatesh)
    Nagarcoil – 112
    Kulashekaram – 103
    Trivandrum* – 98
    Anaikidangu – 92
    Rajakkamangalam – 85
    Thuckalay – 75
    Pechiparai – 58
    Neyyoor – 53
    Killiyoor – 45
    Chimoni* – 45
    Munchirai – 40
    Tiruvadanai – 35
    Pudur – 31
    Mudukkulathur – 30
    Aduthurai – 26
    Ramanathapuram – 24
    Kanyakumari – 21
    Ramnad Nicra – 17

  28. Hmmm naan May 1st week panna forecast ku stick panren.. Looking at conditions SWM onset looks favourable on May 30th + or – 2 days!!

  29. I though we have only one Photography expert till now (Srivat)…now we kno we have got one more…PBS !

  30. What are the chances of today evening match to happen in Bangalore. I am thinking of not using my final set of subs from match 1 πŸ˜›

      • seems clouds are moving west-NW in interiors currently so it has to form to the NW of chennai

      • the same thing like i said in morning . hit or miss . Since the clouds are formed due to heating the intensity of rains will be more.50-50 chance.

      • good sign is that thunderstorms are started to form bit early so many storms will form.

      • Depends how it is coming – by car may be 2 hours if it is highways, by sky 40 minutes

      • Meanwhile let Deepak make arrangements to set right his bottle(RG) he wants to know as how to keep the bottle!!

  31. Friends,Enjoy the last day of this cool and cloudy climate our Agni wants to make a wonderful comeback..In a days time…

  32. i hav a doubt..
    i take a bottle
    then i hav to cut the top of the bottle.
    and then in down what we hav to keep?

    • Simple. Get a paint dabba..Circumference should be flat at the top n bottom with out any folds etc..You will get 90 to 95% accurate readings.

      • Hi Novak. Till now the stretch from Anna nagar to Ambattur haven’t got any good rains. Hoping for something today.We are left out dry. Hope we rock in the Swm Ts later in June and July months

      • My Rg has recorded just around 15 mm this year so far. As you said, it’s long over due. Got to be patient n hope for the best once Swm sets in n move towards coastal Karnataka.

  33. Where is Kea?.yesterday hsr layout very very near to koramangala where he stays has got 82.5mm..He said some 15 -20 mm lol

  34. Nagercoil (Kanyakumari Dist)

    11

    Ponneri (Tiruvallur Dist)

    9

    Keeranur (Pudukkottai Dist), Mylaudy (Kanyakumari Dist), Vedaranyam (Nagapattinam Dist)

    8 each

    Trp town (Trichy Dist), Mayiladuthurai (Nagapattinam Dist), Nannilam (Tiruvarur Dist)

    7 each

    Muthupet (Tiruvarur Dist), Pechiparai (Kanyakumari Dist), Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari Dist)

    6 each

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