Chennai has got rains in past 2 days. And luckily Nungambakkam recorded 3.5mm yesterday. Rainfall is going to increase this weekend. Latest GFS showing some 4-6 cms of rains in chennai.
The intensity will be in higher side than yesterday’s rains. Kathri veyyil is expected to take rest for some more days as rain expected. so enjoy till this rains persists in chennai. Temperatures expected to increase as rains diminishes over chennai probably from Wednesday.
Topic courtesy: Ameenbijli
KeaWeather Archives 
i have given this topic
Nice one Ameen..now take rest…
thanks
It looks like BOB-LPA may form over north Andaman sea (exactly over hudhud-2014 genesis area). We can observe some spiraling in the clouds due strong decrease in VWS. Need to wait and see. http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-ir.htm
Ideal topic
You contributed?
Lol…hope he edits
Nice topic.. posted by Ameenbijli 🙂
Where is pj sir
ur name is shown at the bottom of the topic.. posted by ameenbijli at 12:05 am
Where?
I can’t see
i also
Susa is kidding you…poor ameen
no
Where?
Pradeep Madurai where is Thirumangalam ? close to ur place or AP by any chance ?
Kallupatti and Sedapatti in Madurai might record good rains
Where posted by ameen bijli?
See just above number of comments
Ameen, I am expecting BOB-LPA to form over north Andaman sea. What’s your take??
let’s see…. let us wait for SOI to get stabled
here
Its not showing
😮 really ?
yes… here also
very strange. upload pics of that place both of u
Check this susa
Lol.. maybe because ur on mobile.. and im on pc
Omg….in pc now….Possible…. I refreshed more than 2 times
try checking on pc it shld show up
Okay….gts also uses PC in midnight…which processor you PC has
i3 in t nagar, good enuff
What tnagar added
Transition period will start in few days for TN winds frm sw to sea 🙂 complete vice versa should be more intense??
Why north Andaman clouds are swirling?? Due to lowest VWS???
UAC ENE of Andaman
Oh really. I don’t know that.
sarcasm ? 😛 but yea one formed a few hours back
Is there any chance for it descending lower levels??
yes, it might intensify, but once ARB UAC comes to BOB this would get “swallowed”
Why can’t it be reversed??
their wish!
Ameen your name is there only.
Stop panicking.
where?
To your left..above the number of comments!
Susa is right. It’s there from the moment it was posted.
Ameen u can’t see ur name bc ur on mobile try from ur pc
no net in pc
oh lol.. it’s seen on pc
Ameen more interested in his name being posted 😛
It is NEM time
???
thunderstorms will intensify all over
Don’t worry.
Your name is clearly there 😛
Thirumangalam #1 – 52 mm till 12:45 😮
Susa, it looks Andaman UAC will desecend to lower levels due to highly favorable VWS. Arabian UAC will be weakened or swallowed by this Andaman UAC.
I don’t think it would happen though, ARB one seems to be much stronger
Yes susa/ameen….its visible in mobile but in desktop mode
how desktop mode
there will be an option
Good night to all….hope rain batters entire chennai tmrw
hope
good night
OMG THIRUMANGALAM #2 – 90 mm till 1 AM !!!
Looks like pop-ups are losing stream towards chennai
more will form in morning
Tirumangalam s located SW of Madurai susa on d way to rajapalayam.. Even around 10km from airport..
yep just checked google maps entire area west of madurai getting rains right from vattalagundu to thirumangalam
Ohh good.. Those areas around tirumangalam normally records good numbers compared 2 core city…
West Madurai is literally getting smashed.
Storm Looks like cricket ball n Sat image
Main storm still near Thirumangalam
Madurai might break record for May
It looks E/NE direction only very lucky direction for Chennai to receive heavy rains. I mean thunder storms entering chennai from E/NE will give exceptionally heavy rains.
But no pop-ups seen as of now.
Next priority goes to SE direction after E/NE direction.
Trichy’s turn next
What a rains on June 9th, 2014 (date might be correct) over chennai from E/NE direction that guided by 500 hpa. Rainfall crossed over 100 mm.
100 ? :O Afaik 5-6 cm
No, crossed 100 mm I think
Yes 110mm in chennai on 9th June 2014
nunga 45 mm meena 55
Really. But what about July rainfall? One day it crossed 100 mm.
nunga got 9 cm and meena 8 cm in 1 day in august
Fresh popups in sea near Cuddalore and some 200 km ESE
Hope it will escalate in latitude or induce pop-ups close to chennai coast
Main storms approaching Kallupatti now..
Severe storms with lightning and thunders.
Still raining? PS where r u in Mdu Pradeep
Yes susa. I am in city. Intense rains at times.Violent lightning amf thunders.
Oh nice. In central Mdu ah ?
Yes. Near thirumalai nayakar mahal. Centre of city.
If it’s raining intensely there then it’s widespread
Moderate rain heee now but very heavy at times. Seems like widespread rains.
Thirumangalam #1 60 mm till 1:30 what’s going on omg. how much do u think at your place
62 now
oh near meenakshi temple ?
Yes.
not able to sleep cuz of storm ah
Ya. Awesome rains 🙂
Enjoy !! I’ll post live updates for Thirumangalam at 1:45 and entire Mdu dist. at 2 am if u r interested
Oh great. Sure. Do u know there is any rg in centre of city?Whenever my place records gud rains the amount is incorrect.
They have an RG at thiruparankundram i think i’ll find out more
Madurai East and Madurai west rgs are unfortunately not working
OMG. Thats unfortunate. Okay anyhow gud rains today. Will be more than 3 cm.
Check SE of Ramnd u might see lightning
Not sleeping?
too early :p
Any match
Yes Europa league, not watching, only text commentary
Yesterday Madrid lost
😥 Trophyless season lol ya
You barca
Real fan :p
Me too Ronaldo
Oh 😀 do u follow barclays ?
Not much only la liga
Yes ur spot on susa.. Even can hear thunders now…
o nice!
storms reached pamban
Madurai RF:
Thirumangalam #2 – 109
Kallikudi – 83 (63 mm in 1 hour)
Madurai South – 74
Thirumangalam #1 – 64
Chellampatti – 45
Sedapatti – 31
Usilampatti – 31
Kallupatti – 18
Gud figures. Its still overcast here with lightning around. Hope mad ap doesnt misses out.
Good night
Gn susa.
Raining heavily right now in thiruporur but radar showing nothing..may be TS forming right above
Latest nice analysis by JayW (post no.661) explaining why atmosphere is “not fully coupling to ocean dynamics” in order to establish a firm Elnino.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=1064.650
Rain chance for morning showers look bleak today
It was drizzling in porur and suburbs sometime back
Very pathetic situation of convection on both sides of peninsular seas, a clear indication of Elnino-like situation??
Reason (as per my observations):
Both SOI (ENSO-factor) & IOD are in decreasing trend, which is the indication of “weak-strength” in trade winds travelling towards Indian sub-continent.
Consequences:
(1) Any convection developed by passage of equatorial waves (like MJO, ER, Kelvin, MRG) can not survive for long time and subsequently delays in tropical systems related to pre-monsoonal and monsoonal systems.
(2) Tropical easterly jet stream will be weakened???
When the situation will improve?
Either of SOI or IOD has to increase (as ONI index crossed above +0.5)
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/satellite/Asia/India/Infraredcolor.htm
Rami, What is MRG?
Raining here in madurantakam
Know your trade winds: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_wind
Trade winds general figure:
Lot of thunder and lightning the rain was not heavy i was expecting heavy downpour 😦
One of the best morning in this summer with lighting and thunder 🙂
East looking dark but no rain
many popos happening sse and se of Chennai…. we can expect a decent radar @ 8 o clock for chennai
in chennai
Rains lashing from chengalpet to tindivanam.
Maduranthagam should be battering very heavily.
Good chance of showers today! in chennai… many popos activity can be seen in radar! and it will increase
Good rain in Erode and now drizzling here
Raining in chrompet?
same question from here.. Is it raining in Chromepet ?
Smashing rain in thiruporur..By early morning 4.30 also it rained heavily..started again
Another spell has started this time its heavy
Roads are flooded in no time
Photo please if you can
Will try
Tambaram medavakkam adambakkam city 🙂 will get rain soon
North chennai?
Wait
Super title Ameenbijli – and I like your stressing the point “And luckily Nungambakkam recorded 3.5mm yesterday”
thanks
Thunder south of Chennai
yes here too lightning can be seen in South
Role of SOI (trade wind factor) regarding BOB-systems:
Whatever the -ve value in SOI is not the most worrying factor. Its the trend in SOI that matters most.
Even super Elnino with SOI values below -20 exhibits occasional increase in SOI values. This phases of occasional increase in SOI will strengthen the trade winds and related convection over peninsular seas (hence strengthening of systems).
Recent 2 scenarios in 2014: (even present situation also we are looking)
Example 1: SOI occasional increasing trend in between 2 dropping phases at the time of Hudhud-2014, October 7-14 (No single agency expected hudhud can intensify to cat.4 (still controversy is there regarding its cat.5 super cyclonic strength).
hudhud-2014 (October 7-14, 2014): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_North_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season#/media/File:Hudhud_2014_track.png
Example 2: We have seen how pathetically died/blown off “the deep depression BOB 04 (November 5-8, 2014). Al weather models indicated that it will intensify to cat.3 or above cyclone. Even convection occupied entire BOB at early stage. But non-stop decrease in SOI slowly killed the system in the mid-way of strengthening.
DD BOB 04 (November 5-8, 2014): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_North_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season#/media/File:BOB04_2014_track.png
Notes:
(1) In both the cases IOD turned to dead “0”. But hudhud-2014 case increase in SOI makes the system so powerful. While in case of DD BOB04, SOI has decreased continuously in non-stop manner, hence it died off in mid-way without strengthening.
This 2 quite controversial BOB-systems clearly tells the dominance role of trade winds generated by SOI.
(2) Both BOB-systems initiated by combination of MJO & Kelvin waves.
waiting for rains to start in chennai
Rami, do you have any idea on a single day’s largest increase or decrease in the soi values in the past?
I had seen few times 2.5 points/24 hrs. But I never seen not more than that
TS near South of Chennai, will miss CHENNAI as it is moving towards NNW direction
Yes for sure it will move towards Arakkonam belt.
Rain chances bleak as of now and conditions not looks good too. Showers for Chennai will be possible if popups takes place towards ESE.
New storms are forming to the east south east of Chennai core city areas will get something after 8 o’clock
Ameen-Shabaash.
thanks
just see new cells are forming in SSE! winds are from SSE!
Synoptic Charts
Vela, when the LPA will form? All clouds are disappearing.
Formatiin of LOW in BOB is question Mark…. Only UAC are giving rains to us.
Upper winds at 850hpa
The circulation still in Arabian sea. Looks like it may dissipate rather than moving inland
ot is already entered land
*it
*has
Source ? Earth school still shows it in the sea
yesterday it showed it was close to land so i guessed
Even now i could see it still in sea.
just saw…. UAC comes under 500 hpa… it has entered land! llcc lies in 700,850 hpa i think it shows it is still in sea……
TS are missing core CHENNAI.
Hope at least some more TS will reach city, to support Ameen’s Topic….
South is looking mighty dark but as you indicated they may miss chennai as they are moving NNW ..
my topic is rains to increase in chennai as UAC marching towards land in weekend (sat/sun)
hope……
GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABLE @ALL LEVELS!
UAC has entered land as per 500 hpa earthnullschool……
Ameen….is it not the UAC at 850 and 700 HPA levels? Why are you considering 500 as UAC. The UAC has not moved to land sir.
Ameen, it’s no longer a UAC.
drizzling in Pallavaram
In a shortwhile we are going to have a big show here
looks like NEM-clouds (silver white cumulous/cumulonimbus clouds on blue-back ground of cirrus-sheet)
Heavy raining here yahooooooooooooooo:-D
Where is tondiarpet
No cuddalore:-P
North chennai
Conditions are good for rains. Humid and dark clouds.
Just woke up.my.mom rold heavy rain for5 min..and now little sunny
Another mid level circulation in bay.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=relative_humidity/orthographic=91.82,7.62,2048
whether this topic comes true ? All clouds are moving away in adambakkam.
Light rains started in Ambattur.
http://m.thehindu.com/news/cities/chennai/more-rain-forecast/article7207867.ece/?secid=12610
Congrats PJ and weather bloggers
Congrats PJ and who is the other unnamed blogger?
ameen??
I am guessing Dashman
told i will give another name. Not my name. He said. No let this time let go like this. Next time we can add another name.
I told keabloggers, he has left it.
Who is this person? New name
Lakshmi is in leave.
Who is lakshmi sir?
Congrats pj and kea weather
Welcome back
Welcome. This is great news.
Super ji
Congrats pradeep John
Congrats PJ.
Smashing rains here.
Mouli, nothing in radar.
no there is a small red dot near avadi…
There is a red dot
Super Rains continue in Kerala, ending 8.30 am 14.05.2015
=====================================
The cyclonic circulation extending upto 5.8 kms a.s.l. over Lakshadweep area & neighbourhood now lies over Lakshadweep and adjoining Kerala coast.
in mm (min 15 mm)
Chittur – 115
Kollengode – 107
Thariode – 87
Vyttiri – 85
Alathur – 82
Mankara – 74
Palakkad – 64
Tavanur – 55
Pookot – 54
Ponnani -48
Vellanikkara – 48
Perinthalmanna – 45
Manjeeswaram – 43
Ottappalam – 38
Irinjalakuda – 37
Irikkur – 36
Lower Sholayar – 32
Kuttiyadi – 31
Idamalayar – 30
Taliparamba – 30
Thrithala – 29
Mattanur – 29
Piravom – 29
Thodupuzha – 26
Mannarkad – 24
Vadakkancherry – 24
Peermade – 20
Idukki – 17
Aryankavu – 17
Pattambi – 17
Nilambur – 16
Neeriyamangalam – 15
Mananthavady – 15
Pambla – 15
Sengulam – 15
Kea Weather – http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1354
Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html
Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman
Dark clouds rushing from from west
Here it is
Moderate Rains continuing from this spell.
Bangalore wakes up to nice sunshine after 5 day of cloudy affair. Still Bangalore is waiting for its first real rains from this UAC.
When UAC moves Interior Tamilnadu Bangalore will have the outer band Rains.
This May is odd to Bangalore standards!! No meaningful rains thus far in May after a record April. At least, usual TS rains are welcome!
Yes, Usually Bangalore will have the Daily TS in May but still Westerlies has not yet Started there is no TS.
Spot on. If this scenario continues, Bangalore may record its driest May of recent times.
Here the Images of the Current Spell in Ambattur.
Red spot over ambattur
Here no rain
bright sunshine here…
Ss
ECMWF 5 day average of MSLP shows more moisture likely over Arabian Sea.
Rainfall over Tamilnadu & Puducherry till 8.30am today in mm
Cheyyar – 72
Kanchipuram- 45
Coonoor – 40
Periyakalapet (Puducherry) – 31
Vedasandur – 25
Periyakulam – 24
KVK Kattupakkam – 20
Nilakkottai – 18
Rasipuram – 18
Andippatti – 17
Kangeyam – 17
Sathyabama University – 16
Grand Anaicut – 15
Arani – 14
Cuddalore 13mm till 5.30am,
Meenambakkam – 12
Kollidam – 10
Radhapuram – 10
Manapparai – 10
Very dark clouds in red hills
Congrats PJ,
Nice to see your name comes out every time in Press, its boring, expecting you to see in Media.
adhukku dhuttu selavagumo
they will come to us in the futue, we dont need to spend, antha kalam varun, that will be only for KEA Bloggers.
Already addicted to see the blog. now addicted to search the name of bloggers in the news papers. Why dont they mention the names of other bloggers also. super PJ
Killadi ameen nee
TS lined up from Pondy to Karaikal.
Dear ameen,
Today rains will miss chennai
already in morning rains greeted chennai
Not all areas like on Wednesday…
tbm is a lucky area for past 3 days, every day rain pouring here
Yes… The wind moment supported a lot and tambaram benefitted out of it..
Where
tbm, mouli reported rain from ambattur see below, i’m sure some other areas also be lucky
Yeah some outskirts got rain
Tambaram it’s outskirt….but city areas missed
congrats p.j and all kea bloggers, special thanks for kea for providing an opportunity to be with this rocking blog, day by day we are reaching new heights, way to go
also congrats ameen
Monsoon may be early but El Nino fear looms – toi
Kelvin in Phase 3, expected to weaken in same phase from now on.
Congrats PJ sir..You are A Inspiration to Youngsters Like me..
like us
And not only that….. It is “An Inspiration” and not “A Inspiration”……
Congrats PJ…
http://m.thehindu.com/news/cities/chennai/more-rain-forecast/article7207867.ece/
Flash News,
Weak MJO likely to emerge in Phase 2 by May 20th.
Moderate system expected in Arabian Sea.
Negative OLR likely to begin from May 21st.