There is some chance of light rain early in the morning. Hopefully we receive some good showers on Friday thru Saturday before the real summer kicks in. Kathiri veyyil goes for a toss for the time being.
I think its opposite ( during el nino SWM axis north of its normal position and la nina south of normal position) but I am not sure. You have to ask the experts.
It’s related to LLJ with respect to Elnino in direct manner. Looks like SWM-axis nothing to do with Elnino ( may be influenced indirectly with LLJ)
I think you’re right. When SWM axis shift north of its normal position india get less rainfall. So it has to be in el nino.
Susa and Partha may be knowing about this tthing. You have to ask them. I am not sure.
Under Elnino conditions, When LLJ shifts south of equator, then SWM-axis (don’t have to work more) will be confined to foot hills of Himalayas. Hence break monsoon.
So SWM axis lies north of its normal position in el nino.
Not like that. It will be normal only. Once LLJ shifts south then it will move north along foothills of Himalayas. I need to refer.
Just wait in time. It will develop with the moisture.
Widespread Record Rain in Karnataka continues, ending 8.30 am on 13.05.2015
==================================
The cyclonic circulation over Comorin area and neighbourhood now lies over Lakshadweep area & neighbourhood and extends upto 5.8 kms a.s.l. Over 300 stations have reported rainfall above 10 mm. Hence, cut-off is kept at 40 mm.
Yes as always they get for sure when easterlies takes place.
Hmm….pondy again missing narrowly
Pondy = Chennai Nunga 😛
Missing Rains most of the Time.
Lol
Going by the radar animation Pondy should have some showers today morning. Don’t think it could have missed.
Could be a Light Showers and Moderate at Times. Could ended with less than 15mm.
Very good TS chances today and can see a lot of cumulus congestus today which turn into Thunder Stroms. Sky conditions is very much perfect for moderate to heavy spells.
LPA over BOB/Arabian ocean may not form at least during next 72 hrs.
Reason:
SOI continuously (non-stop) dropping for the past few days and stood at below -12.0. This decreasing trend in SOI will continue till next 3 days. However according to forecasts, SOI will be going to stabilize after 3 days & may start increasing from 5th day.
In conclusion any LPA formation will be after 3-5 days.
This is one of the best things you can possibly see on a May morning. You wake up and see the entire eastern horizon filled with dark clouds. Simply amazing… nothing satisfies me better 🙂
And there are bubble TS to the N and S.. without seeing the radar I can tell that Mahabs and places near PP are under rain
Excess rains in Kerala in pre-monsoon, ending 8.30 am on 13.05.2015
==================================
The cyclonic circulation over Comorin area and neighbourhood now lies over Lakshadweep area & neighbourhood and extends upto 5.8 kms a.s.l. Almost all stations in Kerala reported rainfall. Hence, cut-off is kept at 40 mm.
The “anaconda” towards E looks like it will go north, but a massive semi circular band of TS is approaching Chennai from south, as if radiating outward from an explosion! We should get rains before 10 am seeing the radar
kudos kea, the real democratic, just 2 days back we were discussing about every one who observe weather to contribute in titles, and today rohit santhosh takes the lead and contributed to do that job, expecting from others also when ever possible.
congrats kea, and rohit santhosh
COMPLETELY NEW. 0730 pm news in Channel 7 weather report elaborately given by a old gentleman, . says dont watch weather in tamil news. He prepared a book of charts in Jan 15 for this year. anybody seen it
normally news channels reports just what they received with respect to weather, no research is done by any one, whether it is tamil or english, every one is same, in btn what is his forecast?
Shabaash Rohit. Super.
Typhoon Dolphin is gaining more strength and intensifying
I guess not many ppl are aware that a new topic has been created.
BANANA BA NA NANA BANANA NA NA NANA BANANA!
what a karvad..what a karvad
what a karvad eee what a karvad
Nothing in radar
Real Madrid match kicked off I’ll be back at 1
with BAYERNMUNICH?
Where is captain?
nah juventus
hi susa whats the reading in your RG today? optimisticgreen here.
Optimistic Green becomes yellow mango or green mango ??
Who r the mangopeople?
Krish, not to be seen at all? Like our rains you come on and off..
green
hi, im currently at t nagar, only checked yearly rf last week
ECMWF in its latest update has downgraded the intensity of the system from 968 mb to 996.
Then it’s good only. No worries as it will travel in NW direction along SWM axis
So if the system is of low intensity it will make landfall in AP instead of WB.
Orissa LF might be
An average of 5mm was recorded throughout the city.
hello susa. you there?
He will be back by 1 am..Football now.
hi optimistic! How are you ?
Where is PJ??
Must be compiling rainfall data.
can rains last till the end of dog days? (agni natchatram)
Dog days??
English equivalent for agni natchatram aka kathri veyil
ELnino years the orientation of SWM-axis will be more southerly than normal place (vice versa in Lanina)??? I had doubts need to clarify.
I think its opposite ( during el nino SWM axis north of its normal position and la nina south of normal position) but I am not sure. You have to ask the experts.
In Elnino years sub-tropical jet stream is more southerly. Hence the SWM-axis. In Lanina years it’s opposite.
http://caos.iisc.ernet.in/mv11/abst_joseph.htm
It’s related to LLJ with respect to Elnino in direct manner. Looks like SWM-axis nothing to do with Elnino ( may be influenced indirectly with LLJ)
I think you’re right. When SWM axis shift north of its normal position india get less rainfall. So it has to be in el nino.
Susa and Partha may be knowing about this tthing. You have to ask them. I am not sure.
Under Elnino conditions, When LLJ shifts south of equator, then SWM-axis (don’t have to work more) will be confined to foot hills of Himalayas. Hence break monsoon.
So SWM axis lies north of its normal position in el nino.
Not like that. It will be normal only. Once LLJ shifts south then it will move north along foothills of Himalayas. I need to refer.
I think all are out?? Good night everyone
Good night Rao ji.
Good night
Good Night
Oh… Still awaken??
yeah, in office…gets over in 1 hour
Ok
no
Going towards Bangla/Myanmar. Then SWM progression gets delayed over east India??
Maybe.
But it shows a Low intensity cyclone.
I think it won’t go up in latitude and make landfall somewhere in AP coast.
Need to see.
will intensification close to AP coast get us rains??
Yes
So as per ECMWF heavy rains on cards.
yes uncle….. pounding rains confirmed for chennai
Lol i’m 19 😛
are you Muslim?
No hindu.
oh…..
latest skymet weather report shows cc in sw bob
Skymet? 😛
You should learn a lot about them.
Pic pls
No bands being formed as of now.
Hoping for some band formation by early morning.
good night
Here is why skymet is bad..
radar not updating again damn it
GFS trying to build a weak cyclone
Satellite Image
GFS landfall as Mumbai as weak cyclone.
Band Coming, Everyone wake up.
Really
Just wait in time. It will develop with the moisture.
Widespread Record Rain in Karnataka continues, ending 8.30 am on 13.05.2015
==================================
The cyclonic circulation over Comorin area and neighbourhood now lies over Lakshadweep area & neighbourhood and extends upto 5.8 kms a.s.l. Over 300 stations have reported rainfall above 10 mm. Hence, cut-off is kept at 40 mm.
in mm (min 40 mm)
Kanthavara – 91
Vitlamudnuru – 83
Kowdle – 69
Haliyal – 69
N.Beguru – 66
Mudabidri – 65
Mani – 65
Manchenahalli – 60
Hosuru – 57
Baragur – 56
Balale – 54
Thyagarthi – 54
Bammigatti – 53
Harve – 53
Taraka – 53
Nagamangala – 50
MugutkanHubli – 50
Lakshmisagara – 49
Yekkambi – 48
Hethenahalli – 47
Kakti – 47
Hanagal – 45
S.S.Ghati – 45
Cheeluru – 44
Honakere – 44
Honavar – 44
Haradanahally – 43
Gersoppa – 43
Gowdagere – 42
Mantagi – 42
Anavatti – 42
Hampapura – 42
Rae – 42
Terakanambi – 40
Belagodu – 40
Bidi – 40
BP Dam – 40
Karur – 40
Thogarsi – 40
Puttur – 40
Hiroli – 40
Kea Weather – http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1354
Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html
Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman
By 7.00 am u can see interesting radar.
Perfect conditions. WoW. Seeing the conditions, it should rain today in Chennai. Dont be surprised if we better yesterday rainfall.
GFS Today – Hmm. No rains for Chennai
Today too GFS is going to fail
Pondy getting good rains
Easterly giants Cuddalore to Chidambaram getting pounded.
Yes….cluster of ts
Yes as always they get for sure when easterlies takes place.
Hmm….pondy again missing narrowly
Pondy = Chennai Nunga 😛
Missing Rains most of the Time.
Lol
Going by the radar animation Pondy should have some showers today morning. Don’t think it could have missed.
Could be a Light Showers and Moderate at Times. Could ended with less than 15mm.
Very good TS chances today and can see a lot of cumulus congestus today which turn into Thunder Stroms. Sky conditions is very much perfect for moderate to heavy spells.
As PJ sir told so many POPUPS east and south east of chennai…
Yesterday chidambaram very heavy rain and very big thunder lightning
drizzling started
rains started 🙂
We’ll soon be covered with thunderstorms.
Brilliant rain bow welcomes Chennai along with Sunshine and Rain
At what time we can get rain today?
both rain and sunshine already on
Alwarpet no rain
East la kilambuthu
LPA over BOB/Arabian ocean may not form at least during next 72 hrs.
Reason:
SOI continuously (non-stop) dropping for the past few days and stood at below -12.0. This decreasing trend in SOI will continue till next 3 days. However according to forecasts, SOI will be going to stabilize after 3 days & may start increasing from 5th day.
In conclusion any LPA formation will be after 3-5 days.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt
Ipdi my headla.gunda thooki potingalae 😛
Awesome Sight of Clouds in Chennai.
NE & East
SE
South
East
Awesome
Thanks Jon. These Clouds gives some pleasure to watch 🙂
just looks like NEM-clouds
Its a beauty
Amazing mouli 🙂
Very Nice snaps & nice to see these clouds in hot may month
wow..beautiful to watch
Awesome 😉
Stunning pictures as usual by the Cloud Man of Kea Blog!!
Exclellent photos. Towering cloud luminaries
Temperature may stay below 40 C in this May, says a TOI article quoting MET, which features our beloved PJ’s views as well
good morning all, sunshine around, but can see some dark clouds scattered
Rains on the way
driving back from pondy, past marakkanam, slight drizzle
how is it in chennai currently
Cloudy and Slight sunshine. Rain Bearing Clouds Around.
good, very unlike May so far, temperature not crossed 100 so far and rains.
any rains reported anywhere in chennai now?
Rains are Sure shot for Chennai.
Cuddalore 35mm till 5.30am
It was raining here with bright sunshin and rainbow around 6.45 am. Maybe 1 cm
Showers approaching from SE
Raining in any area? Drizzles in ECR, Iam nearing Mahabs.
Rainbow..mambalam..7 am..
Will this Anaconda hit Chennai or will it move towards SriHarikota???
Sriharikota
Can see low dark clouds to the south rain will start any moment
Radar is stuck
strong convection approaching chennai
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/satellite/Asia/India/Infraredcolor.htm
Intense Storms can be seen SE & all around of chennai..Will it reach us ? Radar got stucked..
Mouli, the best in cloud photography. Its high time KEA dedicate a exclusive page to Mouli for his Cloud Photography
Sir here uts sunny?
Trust me today 10000% rains for Chennai. I have posted in at 5.00 am
Ok sir.i didnt see
Thanks PJ.
Deja Vu
Good sign Rainman has come. Rains are confirmed.
Sir will the big band reach us?
Raining in royapuram
3.am to 5.am heavy rain smashed here 😛
This is one of the best things you can possibly see on a May morning. You wake up and see the entire eastern horizon filled with dark clouds. Simply amazing… nothing satisfies me better 🙂
And there are bubble TS to the N and S.. without seeing the radar I can tell that Mahabs and places near PP are under rain
good morning… I’m going to my terrace to note RG readings
PJ SIR will those bands reach us?
yes.
From which direction?
SE
Two big mass ..one near Kerala & other near central TN coast..
Radar Sri updated – http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/dynamic/doppler-sri.htm
Rainfall during past 24 hrs ending at 8:30 am today in my area is 12mm
dark clouds approaching here from E and SE
Excess rains in Kerala in pre-monsoon, ending 8.30 am on 13.05.2015
==================================
The cyclonic circulation over Comorin area and neighbourhood now lies over Lakshadweep area & neighbourhood and extends upto 5.8 kms a.s.l. Almost all stations in Kerala reported rainfall. Hence, cut-off is kept at 40 mm.
in mm (min 40 mm)
Kunnamkulam – 114
Kottayam – 100
Enamackel – 89
Tavanur – 84
Kozhikode – 72
Kodungallur – 71
Vellanikkara – 69
Quilandy – 69
Chittur – 69
Palakkad – 69
Aluva – 69
Ponnani – 62
Vynthala – 61
Vadakkancherry – 60
Irinjalakuda – 56
Chalakudy – 51
Mattanur – 48
Varkala – 48
Chimoni – 46
Kollengode – 46
Thrithala – 46
Karipur AP – 46
Meenangadi – 45
Pattambi – 45
Ottappalam – 43
Alathur – 42
Pambla – 41
Mananthavady – 41
Piravom – 41
Kea Weather – http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=1354
Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html
Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman
Seems like they r getting SWM rains very earlier..
Has it rained anywhere overnight in Chennai?
Looks like areas after Kumaran Nagar till Shollinganallur have received some passing showers in the morning
92a image loop
I have never seen the mid level with this much moisture towards TN before!
Full bubble continues TS to SE of Chennai! we are in for a treat today!
new storms forming back
GFS ruled out the cyclone in Arb sea..& the invest 92a loop seems to moving to land.
Dark clouds approachibg from e and se
The “anaconda” towards E looks like it will go north, but a massive semi circular band of TS is approaching Chennai from south, as if radiating outward from an explosion! We should get rains before 10 am seeing the radar
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/img/Animation/dop_ani_main.htm
it will trigger small popups to us..
wind direction perfect NNW
Wow..what a day..started with bright sunshine…now getting dark..& rains r on the way..
Here no sunshine, dark. Here but. No rain 😥
will rain soon
In cuddalore?
in chennai confirm.
interiors will get soon aftr us
I’m in. Cuddalore:|
“Blogshah” in news. Congrats.
Pj sir?
Congrats PJ…
same pinch
Yeah, just few seconds gap.
congrats P.J your views about rains and kathri came in today’s t.o.i edition, it has become a regular phenomena for you to appear in news papers when ever it rains or shines
http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31807&articlexml=MAY-TO-REMAIN-COOL-AS-MORE-RAIN-EXPECTED-14052015003028
Mouli. Fantastic images. Kudos.
Thanks a Lot Novak.
Good anvil thilagam
Mouli have become a cloud photographer :-D…
Typhoon Dolphin track by Lorin Beier
congrats PJ sir
Pj sir is rocking
Congrats pradeep john sir 😉
Already started raining in thiruporur,.wind direction SE to NW..so OMR will get rains soon..
PJ,partha,roa,sudharshan,vela as usual great..
Good… Then Kelambakkam and Then Thalambur 🙂
Then Agumbe??
That’s usual boss.. No need to mention separately
When will lpa form in gom?
sat img update
radar update
Tiny popups east of cudlr
insat img multispectral rainfall
Radar struck
Its started pouring at kk nagat
Heavy rain
kudos kea, the real democratic, just 2 days back we were discussing about every one who observe weather to contribute in titles, and today rohit santhosh takes the lead and contributed to do that job, expecting from others also when ever possible.
congrats kea, and rohit santhosh
drizzling heavying
it poured at kk nagar for 3 min and drizzling now..roads become suddenly very wet
Bulb model track (gfs)
So, Raoji is rocking
Ooiii yaravathu reply pannunga
When lpa form in gom :@
soon
Date pls 😛
rao sir said that next 3 -5 dauys it will happed.
so wait more 3 days,till then enjoy these rains
Cause soi falling down 😛
by tomorrow
no place it rained ah?
what an intense rain here at kk nagar for 3 min
No da… Only kk nagar, valasaravakkam got rains
Radar struck!
COMPLETELY NEW. 0730 pm news in Channel 7 weather report elaborately given by a old gentleman, . says dont watch weather in tamil news. He prepared a book of charts in Jan 15 for this year. anybody seen it
normally news channels reports just what they received with respect to weather, no research is done by any one, whether it is tamil or english, every one is same, in btn what is his forecast?
bad luck. saw just 1 min only
Nice rains in my area for 5 minutes….seems Askokpillar, KK Nagar receiving rains….
yes yes
No rain in Ashok Nagar…..
But rain att kk mHat that too poured
oh….but KK nagar got rains …surprising