Tricky system confuses all

Over the past few days everyone was closely following the latest model runs for the information on the systems. Almost each and every run was changing. Still the question is will it happen or not. Next 2-3 days might decide if there will be a system for Chennai this May. Atleast the peak summer is postponed for the time being.sector-irc

2,046 thoughts on “Tricky system confuses all

  1. Tonight storms Update from ECMWF – Wow they look similar. Storms to stop exactly at Chennai

  2. Now that ECMWF changed its forecast,GFS would start following ECMWF slowly! so that they won’t get caught. 😛

      • Ameenu, lower your expectation levels and increase your acceptance levels regarding this system’s outcome.

  3. Courtesy vagaries:

    (1) A UAC at 850 hpa will form in the South Central Bay on the 15th…A trough may embed a Low in the South Eastern Bay around 17th May.

    (2) A trough has runs along from the Karnataka coast and tilting slightly West, towards the Kerala Coast. An UAC has embedded itself in the trough around the Lakshdweep Islands. This could descend to form a Low off the Kerala coast by 14th May…Low will persist in a trough off the South West Coast off India. Expected to strengthen and track NW…will update on Thursday 14th again.

  4. On and off Light Rain and Drizzles in Chennai and it going to be intense as the day progresses. Left over Dist to get Some Showers possibly Moderate to heavy in some Areas.

  5. Drizzling started here… intense band approaching…. where is pj sir……. band coming!

  6. Latest update rammb.. …..

    latitude 9.9N
    longitude 76.0E.
    intensity 15knots…..

    whats happening its moving towards arb sea in NW direction

  7. Latest update. 850 hPa centre is at

    7.95 N 76.5 E

    There are 2 surface level circulations, we will have to see which one is permanent

  8. OMG…SOI continuously dropping and downed to -10.11. This dropping in SOI never allow BOB-systems’ formation.

    The decrease in SOI prevents 100% BOB-systems. However this fall in SOI will not favor only 50% of Arabian ocean systems. The famous Nilofer-2014 is one of the best example in the recent past.

    Note: Even this decrease in SOI must not be >0.5 points/24 hrs to support Arabian ocean cyclones’ formation.

    SOI: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

  9. Another day of BOB & Arabian Sea discussions started about LPA formation. Still not clear abt system origin.

  10. .. LPA will form in SE Arabian sea…. chennai will get rains from this system….. heavy to very heavy rains possible…. pull effect …..

  11. Will those bands sustain till it reaches inland..Looks decent enough to give us moderate showers if it reaches us..

  12. Don’t worry… if LPA forms in SE Arabian sea… we will get pounded. ….. Think of 2009 nov LPA….. formed in comorin sea /se Arabian sea… pounded chennai due to pull effect…. 400mm in 4 days

  13. The big bands near Pondi has more intense TS inside ..if it reaches we will start with drizzles & with hvy rains..I think it will maintain its intensity..

  14. where pull effect ? No ameen. Its not even WML. How can it pull. See the 850 hpa winds. It will give u the answer.

  15. For those who want to differentiate.

    LPA rains are banded like those in BOB right now.

    Pull effect is like bubble thunderstorms, that is thunderstorms lined up one behind the other like a train

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