For a couple of days Chennai has been facing cool weather despite it nearing peak summer. This kind of weather with a max temp of less than 34 degrees C will continue for the next few days.
This is because the UAC that has triggered rains in South Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka is going to intensify and descend to lower levels, meaning an LLCC (lower level circulation center) is going to form soon. This is going to boost thunderstorm activity greatly in South and Central Tamil Nadu.
Chennai however, will have to wait. If lucky a few isolated showers might occur till 13th.
The scenario however remains unclear on WHERE the LPA is going to form. GFS indicates Arabian sea while other models indicate SW BOB. SW BOB will be much more favourable for rains for Chennai.
Chennai’s rains will depend on the location of formation of the LPA and the strength of the UAC. As of now we might get some sporadic showers, but it will be much more if SW BOB scenario takes place. This is very tricky and very tough to predict. We have to wait and see where the LLCC emerges before we can conclude on rains
Topic contributed by Sudharshan
wow
Hope it devastates chn
Why this kolaveri?
No pain no gain π
ECMWF showing good rains for TN this run
I badly want NAVGEM forecast to come true π
Nice topic Maddy π
Ty!
Breaking news!
NGFS also expects a cyclone near our TN coast making landfall close to Nellore.
let it move little more west and cross closer to chennai
Yea as i said I badly want NAVGEM forecast to come true.
I want to see the exact power of a strong cyclone.
It’s very scary feeling. I went through 1990-AP super cyclone.
seriously?
Wish I was there π¦
OMG…it’s really breaking news π
Yes cyclone very much on cards!
Rao i know you are being sarcastic here π
It’s true being the first person to identify this system
Rao where are you now.. Intense thunderstorms approaching the Newjersey area ( Jersey City ). Typical may weather with warm sunshine and high humidity triggering thunderstorms
Thx. TS are common during this period.
Question:
What do you call an alligator in a vest
An investigator.
Genius π
Good night bloggers π
Got my Sem exams tomorrow.
Sleep tight..sd!
Oh! Good luck!! Padikalaya π
Lighta π
850 mb vorticity is deepened during past 12 hrs and moved east and relocating it self!
700MB vorticity is also deepened during past 12 hrs!!
wow shear has reduced over SW bob and it reducing more! shear is increasing near WB, North bay and se Arabian sea
ameenu
Any one there? oregon uncle?
it’s against streeing winds!
SAT img update
ellarum thoongiringala?
Any one there?
our system is an invest now! 15knots… why its showing Arabian sea?
what happened to circulation? has it moved away?
Any one there?
see this plotting…. is that moving east towards bay?
rammb
or moving towards arb sea?
see this too
Experts please tell
NAVGEM latest.
Intense cyclone crossing N.chennai with wind speeds around 160kmph!
hrishi what’s wrong with rammb? it’s showing invest se of arab sea…?
It’ll either change or move.Don’t worry.
Very low shear tendency across BOB.
Will boost our system if it goes there.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=sht&zoom=Z&time=
Going to be an interesting day π
On my way to college.
See you guys in the evening.
good luck for your exam! do well!
Thank u ameen.
OMG…..SOI dropped down to -9.9
Did SOI drop so much during 1977 AP super cyclone?
yes. It might be around -12.0
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml
is it good?
its dropping down drastically. first it has to stabilize.
ennathan mudivu?varuma ? varatha ?
confirmed… varum
Where are you pj sir….?.? i want you very badly…. now
I think during 1977-AP super cyclone also SOI increased. can anyone confirm for me from the following graph.
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soigraph/index.php?year=1977
Rs Rao sir why rammb is showing invest se of arab sea?
I don’t know all are drunken
RS RAO sir it will move NNE till ne of Sri Lanka and relocate it self to SW BOB and se of nagapattnim and it will intensify…. is it?
need to wait for 2 more days
soi increased or decreased
now or in 1977?
there was a confusion in one comment it was increased and in another it was decreased
Monitor North Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea, Bay Of Bengal) LIVE
http://tropicalcyclonelive.blogspot.in/2015/05/monitor-stormwatch-north-indian-ocean-arabian-sea.html
Drizzling here in tondiarpet
Heavy drizzle in Ullagaram
Drizzles here.
shear is dam low now in SW Bay and its increasing in Kerala. Now LLC will try to relocate towards SW Bay.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=sht&zoom=&time=
Maddy Nice Topic. The last lines “This is very tricky and very tough to predict. We have to wait and see where the LLCC emerges before we can conclude on rains”
Very Good!!!!
Indeed..Hope he puts his hands up say..” count me in ” regularly..
Navygem 18 UTC update – Depression hitting Chennai. This is the right steering. It crosses North TN and Goes to arabian Sea.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_all.cgi?type=prod&area=nvg_tropio&prod=prp&dtg=2015051118&set=Tropical
skymet expecting “cyclone-free” May
http://www.skymetweather.com/content/weather-news-and-analysis/no-sign-of-cyclones-in-the-month-of-may-yet/
Based on the current scenario’s, cyclone option is rulled out, v can’t expect it.
Was Drizzling Here Minutes Back…
After silent night, gone Extremely dark with shelf clouds approaching from east..
The UAC at the 500 hpa level is way far west, for any LLCC to develop in the SW bay. I see only a weak surface circulation SW of Sri Lanka and it’s too close to land to develop any further.
π¦ π¦
π¦ :(:( π¦
Coming GFS model, expect the change to SW Bay again. Just feeling. If they take the shear into consideration.
Yes, Rao. If GFS shift low to North TN, then we are decoding the model correct.
Still game not over. Real game not yet started.
Let’s wait for things to unfold and Low to develop
Raijm, GFS is not getting the gensis right, see the shear. LOW cant go there. It will shift in the coming run.
Deepak to deepa (u), raijin to raijim and next whom?
Hope GFS will come out of hangover in the upcoming run
According to unconventional theory, if MJO is at phases 5&6 and SOI stays below -10 then “UAC/system” must take N/NE track in order to survive. At present MJO within the vicinity of phase 5 & SOI touching -10. So UAC/system must travel in N/NE direction and must enter SW-BOB for its existence. It’s do or die situation for the UAC to make it to SWBOB.
Very scattered rains drops all the way from Navalur to Shollinganallur
Guys if this system moves toarabian sea what is our chances?.
I pray god not to go there
Sorry arabian sea
It’s very bright here…. and when can we expect clear picture???
Wait for the clear pic of uac/Lpa
Thx
Susa , wonderful, wonderful…. Simple n lucid language , should appeal to everyone,.Of course, guarded observations and righty so on the possible scenario to emerge…A request to you..Kea on most days contributes the daily topic. Pradeep fills in on eventful days in spite of his pressing workload..Not an easy job even if you have to pen few lines for a day’s topic.Here is where bloggers like you have to step in and reduce the burden and contribute on a regular basis. You have been one of the regular bloggers for years now and hope you would do this on a regular basis . Cheers.
Here comes the GTS II:-D
Nowadays Novak follows the GTS style of Comments. Always arrive with big thoughts π
Now a days Novak is interested to post only applauds that too big Para’s…enjoy
Thanks Novak! Sure I’ll fill in when I get the chance
Gfs and gem expecting the system towards arabian sea
NAVGEM is the model which is.consistantly showing cyclone for. Chennai
guys whether low/cyclone forms or not…but this condition favour us from hot weather. Still temperature not touched 100*f still now . so lets happy with this situation.
moderate rain for past 30 min…
The above mentioned topic has a question that whether LOW will form in Bay or Arabian Sea, good question, i would like to answer.
It all depends on Kelvin Wave, presently it is in Phase 2, if it emerges into Phase 3, we will see the LOW in Bay otherwise GFS would be right.
Right the forecast seems like Kelvin will emerge as a weaker system in Phase 3 and will live for short time, so chances of LOW in Bay is possible, lets keep fingers crossed.
GFS 00z run starts.. Hope for best guys…
Sun is out and hot and humid now with lot of low clouds around in Chennai.
is it the sign of things to come?
Yes high clouds are getting cleared and rain bearing clouds around. Anyway wait till System Forms.
gfs low right over srilanka today
again its taking to arabian sea
excepting the low near arabian sea
No bro…anyways rains sure for chennai…
how?
If any system in Arabian sea bay ll wet moisture content from Arabian sea…..so we can get some good showers… But huge number not possible
see above
Let’s hope….. Be in confidence
gfs excpeting this low to go to arabian sea and moving east near chennai
Lol….
gfs gone mad?????
Dont care other models guys.. Real battle starts now… GFS vs ECMWF….
gfs excepting the low to enter arabian sea and moving north and then sudden west completely in india near chennai and again going to arabian sea and moving north and south twice..what’s this?
consider 48 hours alone..dont c more dan dat… its blabbering after dat..
when can we see ECMWF run?
wait 2 more hours..
the current scenario, reminds me a famous tamil song, ” yaaraithan nambuvatho pethai nenjam”, each and every model is confusing, but i have a strong feeling that, rains for chennai is just postponed, we will definitely get our share before next monday,
Courtesy: Mr. Senthil Kumar from Adambakkam
Interestingly , the circulation moves to land , intensify near westernghats and goes to Arabian sea near mumbai.
I foresee good rain for Tamilnadu for another 10 days. Chennai can have some showers..not expecting much
This divergent only gives widespread rain to entire Tamilnadu
Chennai can have heavy rains btw 16th to 18
rains getting postponded.anyhow rains should come
π
Courtesy to Dr.senthil Kumar
susa, simple words, easy to understand, great job, as Mr.Novak said, people like you, Vela sir, and other experts can contribute to the titles then and there. like our P.J. different views really add much needed learning experience for lay man like me, expecting more from you also susa
Shriram-Yes..Other bloggers should come forward and contribute the days topic..Not just few individuals..Those who keenly observe the weather patterns on a regular basis i mean…Would not like to use the often heard and used word “Analysis” Cos the word analysis(weather analysis) has a more deeper meaning which i feel in all probability should be left alone to Professionals and experts,,.I find the word “observations” is safer to use here..
Synoptic Charts
Upper Wind at 850 hPa
if this happens 100 mm
only 100?
more than that could happen…
100mm/hr!
sat image
OMG!!
GFS expecting two lows..
one LOW near chennai
GFS
sir i hav posted down
Low clouds in Bangalore and drizzling. The whole city is air conditioned well before monsoon.
Comparison of ELNINO years of May 12th 1997 & May 12th 2015.
Kelvin wave & Westward OLR was almost in similar position on May 12th 1997 and today.
May 12th 1997
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showarchivedhoriz.php?year=1997&month=5&day=12&year2=1997&month2=5&day2=12
May 12th 2015
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showhoriz.php
one doubt will this system form into depression and strike tn?
that is million dollar question, we have to wait and see, LOW is confirmed, strengthening is something depends on tropical waves movement and strength.
when kelvin wave entering phase 3?
Today?
14th likely..
hopefully!… i saw diagram……. hope bay should throw a LPA!
yes its rushing to phase 3…!
GFS latest run showing strong cyclone in Arabian sea.
beautiful low level dark clouds with drizzles in my area again today…
Kelvin Impact – ITCZ set its zone near Equator, good to see moisture moving north, and HPA setting over South Indian Ocean.
Also TS clouds over Bay forming beyond 12N latitude, good sign.
Super Sudharshan π simple words & easy to understand for any layman…1st 2 lines of last para sums up every thing…SW BOB is ideal spot for chennai…
I liked the fact that he didn’t forget to mention GFS as well though its behaving wobbly.
Weather analysis-
Click to access Chapter1_final.pdf
Some excerpts from the File..
Definition of Weather Analysis
The dictionary defines βanalysisβ as a detailed examination of
something. It is a process that breaks the object of the
analysis into parts so that each part can be examined in detail.
This process determines its nature, function, and other
characteristics. In operational weather analysis the object is
the atmosphere, specifically, the troposphere, where day-to-day
weather occurs. The parts that we need to examine are the
various weather parameters that are typically used to describe
the atmosphere: temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction,
atmospheric pressure, clouds, precipitation, etc. We generally
do our analysis at one specific time in order to get a glimpse
of what is happening in the atmosphere at that moment. However,
analysis over time is often useful to provide a better picture
of how things are changing.
Atmospheric Models
One way that a meteorologist interprets data and patterns is
through atmospheric analysis models. An analysis model is an
idealized representation of a weather system that helps you as a
meteorologist visualize that system, its associated weather, and
its evolution. It provides a distribution in space and time of
the typical three-dimensional system structure. By comparing
data or isopleths patterns to analysis models, you can get a
better sense of what is happening and why. An analysis model
gives an analyst a sense or feel for the logical distribution of
weather parameters in both space and time.
Those interested can go thru the link..
yourself a dictionary, why we want separate one thala!!!
Paartha…Just happened to read this interesting link on weather analysis and how is it done..Just thought of sharing it..Also the word” Analysis” has much more deeper meaning if one goes through the link and i feel the word “observation” is relatively safer to use .
Flash news!! flash news!,! as per rammb our invest has moved North east wards and now lies east of Sri Lanka and it is relocating to NE of Sri Lanka!!
LATEST IMAGE!
img latest
old img see this and compare to above image
Link please. I can see they are keeping it Arabian Sea
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/image_mpsatwnd.asp?storm_identifier=IO922015&product_filename=2015IO92_MPSATWND_201505120000
it has moved NE since yesterday partner…
ECMWF coming good
Thats old image
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=IO922015
see this one also loop of invest
The upper air cyclonic circulation over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Srilanka extending upto 1.5 km above mean sea level persists. Under its influence, a low pressure area would develop over southwest Bay of Bengal around 13 May.
imd delhi morning report
IMD Morning report also says SW BoB. They also sense GFS is awkward.
Click to access Inference.pdf
pls see my post below and comment… …
but their forecast for next 4 days shows max rains for Andhra, telengana , s.interior and coastal ktk, for t.n 2 days heavy rainfall 13, and 14, and15 & 16 fws
How is our chances now?
VSCS targeting Gujarat as per GFS latest run.
its drunk….. our invest moving in NE direction and it relocating to NE of Sri Lanka… Plz see latest rammb…
Gujarat.. U gotta be kidding me!
Navygem removes cyclone but keeps low towards north TN and then shifts to Arabian Sea – Realistic. ECMWF will also come up something like this.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_all.cgi?type=prod&area=nvg_swasia&prod=prp&dtg=2015051200&set=All
It’s a depression
jupi sir I’m very happy system is relocating its self to NE of Sri Lanka!
Its not opening
Minimum 3 rainy days are assured : )
its a cyclone 999 mb
ECMWF forecasts LOW over North Coastal TN by 14th.
it will trigger super duper rains in chennai!
NAVGEM showing deep depression /cyclone crossing chennai with intense rain bands! on 15 th may
Just about to.post
Old one Ameen
No… its latest run…. just now i opened the website and took… and its last run was happening that time
Gfs only not looking positive
Because it is in drunken state
so its blabbering..
I think so NAVGEM willncime true
yes… hopefully…
i wish to go by our own imd, since they know our region well
Exactly. They are king in this type of situation.
As per IMD, still LOW has not formed….
expected to form on 13
That is correct. the circulation is still not defined and also unclear if the UAC has descended to ground level.
El NiΓ±o in the tropical Pacific
The tropical Pacific is in the early stages of El NiΓ±o. Based upon model outlooks and current observations, the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker has been raised to El NiΓ±o status.
El NiΓ±oβSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators have shown a steady trend towards El NiΓ±o levels since the start of the year. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have exceeded El NiΓ±o thresholds for the past month, supported by warmer-than-average waters below the surface. Trade winds have remained consistently weaker than average since the start of the year, cloudiness at the Date Line has increased and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained negative for several months. These indicators suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have started to couple and reinforce each other, indicating El NiΓ±o is likely to persist in the coming months.
International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain above El NiΓ±o thresholds through the coming southern winter and at least into spring.
El NiΓ±o is often associated with below-average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia, and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country. However, the current May to July outlook suggests much of Australia is likely to be wetter than average. This is because a warmer-than-average Indian Ocean is dominating this outlook. El NiΓ±o is expected to become the dominant influence on Australian climate during the second half of the year.
But we should not also underestimate gfs.it was many times gud
IMD Update
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/ALLINDIA_MAIN.HTM
LPA will will form in GOM, in next 36hrs – SSD -Noaa
The steering wind pattern forecast by GFS itself is a mistake and a big error.
When ITCZ is strengthening near Equator, the lower level steering winds must be from SW to NE from Comorin to South Bay areas and in Arabian Sea it must be scattered due to HPA over Central Arabian Sea, hence the lower level steering will not even enter Arabian Sea, this wind will come from NW Indian Ocean and move towards ENE direction across Comorin and to South Bay.
This lower level steering winds will take the LOW towards SW Bay of Bengal since Kelvin Wave is moving towards Phase 3 in next 2 days. So GFS is blabbering.
GFS is expected to come in line with ECMWF.
Since the confusions are going on, i would like to summarize that the present LOW in GOM will move up NE and will emerge as a strong LOW over North Coastal TN by 14th as Kelvin Wave likely in Phase 3 by 14th. This movement will give good rainfall over NTN and Chennai from 13th overnight or 14th early morning.
This LOW has a chance to become a Depression, but it is a remote chance and i do not want to rule out, but a strong LOW or WML over North Coastal TN by 14th is possible as per ECMWF.
SST is highly favorable, only if VWS don’t disturb the LAP, it sure to become a significant cyclone.
VWS is drastically reducing
The latest ENSO Wrap-Up (Link: “http://e.bom.gov.au/link/id/zzzz555189a41b646393Pzzzz53a951a58ea2c418/page.html”)
ENSO Tracker (Link: “http://e.bom.gov.au/link/id/zzzz555189a41ba79072Pzzzz53a951a58ea2c418/page.html”)
and Climate Model Summary (Link: “http://e.bom.gov.au/link/id/zzzz555189a41beea565Pzzzz53a951a58ea2c418/page.html”)
are now available on the Bureau’s website.
The circulation:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-280.88,5.61,3000
Wind Shear & Shear Tendency
Almost no VWS after 3hrs or so
the ideal place SW BoB.
I think by tomorrow evening this will become Depression – Favorable local conditions but with land interaction.
Manamelkudi (Pudukkottai Dist)
7
Sivakasi (Virudhunagar Dist)
5
Coonoor (Nilgiris Dist), Pamban (Ramanathapuram Dist), Sankaridurg (Salem Dist)
4 each
Coonoor pto (Nilgiris Dist), Kadaladi (Ramanathapuram Dist), Kamudhi arg (Ramanathapuram Dist), Kamudhi (Ramanathapuram Dist), Mudukulatur (Ramanathapuram Dist)
3 each
Thats very positive ENSO update from Australian Met.
ELNINO tracker alert has reached the maximum level.
NINO 3 is at the peak with 1.2C above normal, 0.2C increased in the past 2 weeks.
NINO 3.4 remains samd with 1.0C above normal and NINO 4 has reduced 0.1C since last 2 weeks time.
NINO 3 and 3.4 is hotter than NINO 4.
SOI fell below -8.0 (ELNINO Threshold) and as per the following link, it is -9.9.
Trade winds are consistently weaker and Cloudiness near date line has increased and it is consistent.
Positive IOD likely by June.
The above conditions indicates that perfect ELNINO conditions has arrived.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/tracker/
positive i.o.d by june, will this help in normal S.W.M?
what will be the forecast for Bangalore and Salem in coming days
Salem will get sure shot rains in coming days. Bangalore will mostly be dry for next 3 days.
its raining in bangalore now. ( bangalore south) light rain
drizzle rains
yes it drizzled from Silk board to Agara when i traveled an hour back
Nothing much for Bangalore I believe. When Chennai itself is struggling to post numbers on this one, how come Bangalore!! Expect nothing more than a 1cm
i dont want a rain, i just want temperature to go down ~25c
Yeah, that’s on the cards. Expecting a cool weekend of 22C Max. If the system moves NW into interior TN, then deluge is on the cards for Bengaluru. But that’s not the scenario now. The Low expected to Skirt along TN coast.
Activity shifts to Comorin.. Gfs forecast might become true π¦
No Jon the system is moving ne
No.it has moved Ne
it was in se Arabian sea yesterday night… now it has moved ne and relocating to NE of Sri Lanka….
in Bangalore fast moving low clouds travelling towards SW direction ( from NE). looks like an depression or low already formed there. so the low must be some where in arabian sea now.
no chance
Flash news!! flash news!,! as per rammb our invest has moved North east wards and now lies east of Sri Lanka and it is relocating to NE of Sri Lanka!!
LATEST IMAGE!
jon that’s new image above
this is old img niw….
pls compare
Similarities?? Gfs morning forecast today n satellite now
jon see my post below… pls compare those 2 images…